COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[GeneralMacArthur]

People really are just incredibly thick about the vaccines, aren't they?  "Oh muh broken promises."

Vaccines do an astounding job at preventing hospitalization and death.  Virtually all the hospitalization and death happening in this country right now is unvaccinated people.  Anti-vaxxers are literally killing themselves in droves.  Not a day goes by that I don't see a new deathbed conversion, some anti-vaxxer lying in the hospital dying of the virus and saying, man if only I'd gotten the vaccine.

Vaccines reduce the infection rate by a substantial amount.  Which also reduces transmission.  They do not reduce either of those to zero.  Even if you are vaccinated, there is still a chance you can get the virus and spread it, although that chance is dramatically lower than that of an unvaccinated person.

So why are vaccinated people being asked to wear masks and follow restrictions?  Two reasons.

1)  Wearing a mask costs you nothing, and most of the restrictions are very minor and easy to follow.  Even if the benefits are smaller for vaccinated people, they are still considerable, and doing something that costs nothing and is super-easy is worth it to prevent the spread of the virus.  This is a bigger concern now than it was a month or two ago because the Delta variant is much, much more contagious than the vanilla COVID the vaccines were designed for.

2)  At this point it is very difficult to distinguish between vaccinated people and unvaccinated people.  Self-selection doesn't work because anti-vaxxers are disgusting liars.  We've started to see more and more ramping up of vaccine mandates and vaccine requirements, which has led to the predictable crocodile tears about "muh tyranny" and "muh big government."  Once we can draw a firm line between the vaccinated and unvaccinated, vaccinated people can enjoy life free of restrictions.

In fact, this is already pretty true.  I went to a nightclub for the first time in two years this weekend.  I was required to show my vaccination card at the door, they took my temperature, and I had to wear a mask.  Dancing in a mask sucked.  But I felt pretty safe knowing my chances of getting COVID from someone around me were very low.  As I've said before, my life is almost entirely back to normal at this point.  It feels like most of the "vaccinated" people complaining about big government, tyranny, restrictions, etc. are people who never went out in the first place and now want to pretend their aversion to masks is the reason they don't have a life.

In simpler terms, if you really care about your family, being asked to get a vaccine and wear a mask shouldn't stop you from seeing them, unless you're an incredibly selfish prick.

But most anti-vaxxers are incredibly selfish pricks.  Hate is a strong word but I truly hate these people.  Last year when I saw the death numbers spiking up I felt a real sense of sadness and empathy.  Now I feel nothing.  These people wanted to die, and now they're getting what they wanted.  If the only way we're going to escape COVID is for all the anti-vaxxers to die, then I say, hurry up and die already.

[Inmate Trump]

For me, I have an anxiety disorder.

What sparks my anxiety? I work in a high stress job, so it’s not that.  GERMS and illness set me into panic mode.  I don’t need any judgment, it’s just the truth.  I take medication to reduce my anxiety but it doesn’t always work.  Covid especially has been very hard on my mental state.

Masks never bothered me. I mean, yea I don’t LIKE them but it’s no big deal to wear one.  The thing that bothers me is never knowing when I can safely be around family.  My biggest fear during all of this is unknowingly giving covid to my grandmother or to an at risk nephew and niece.  My concern for them far outweighs my concern for myself.  But I can’t go on not seeing them either.

[Hammy]

Sorry for my drunken post.


Now for a sober post…

Does anyone know if it looks like Delta has peaked in Georgia, or if it hasn’t peaked here yet?

Despite the four day cumulative, Georgia does appear to have peaked. 25k new cases were reported Sat-Tue, with almost 33k reported during the previous four day period (the Monday cumulative+the following Tuesday), and aside from a small dip-and-rise as a result of no cases being reported due to labor day, the 7-day average has been steadily dropping all month so far.

[Frodo]

When you go get your third COVID booster shot, ask for Moderna:

https://twitter.com/business/status/1432548424067518465

This explains why those of us who took Pfizer had far less side-effects than those who had the other vaccines -and why it has a hidden cost:

https://twitter.com/DrJasmineParker/status/1435682376282161159

[Person Man]

When you go get your third COVID booster shot, ask for Moderna:

https://twitter.com/business/status/1432548424067518465

This explains why those of us who took Pfizer had far less side-effects than those who had the other vaccines -and why it has a hidden cost:

https://twitter.com/DrJasmineParker/status/1435682376282161159

Hence the need for a booster apparently.

[Inmate Trump]

When you go get your third COVID booster shot, ask for Moderna:

https://twitter.com/business/status/1432548424067518465

This explains why those of us who took Pfizer had far less side-effects than those who had the other vaccines -and why it has a hidden cost:

https://twitter.com/DrJasmineParker/status/1435682376282161159

Hence the need for a booster apparently.

Pfizer and J&J recipients definitely need a booster. I wonder if Moderna recipients are really in need yet though.

[emailking]

Moderna was the correct choice. I'm glad I made the right decision.

[pbrower2a]

Moderna was the correct choice. I'm glad I made the right decision.

Moderna is what was available at the time during the late winter. I was 65 and had a mild auto-immune disorder (psoriasis, which is easy to live with... ironically, dogs love to lick it; it must be tasty) so I could get the vaccine fairly early. 

I felt the side effects -- flu-like symptoms, mild chest pains, and shortness of breath. I came to the conclusion that COVID-19 might have killed me, and that shapes much of what I have as the basis of my views toward COVID-19.

Anyone who has not gotten the appropriate inoculations by choice (one is excused if one cannot take the vaccine due to medical reasons) is a schmuck. Anyone denied the vaccine due to the choice of a parent or guardian is a victim waiting to happen.   

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 9/2-9/8/2021 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

From March 2020 to mid-July 2021, I kept track of COVID-19 numbers daily. Now that there's a light at the end of the tunnel and states are staggering their daily updates, I am switching to a mid-week to mid-week model (Thursday to Wednesday).

Wednesdays are ideal for weekly updates since holidays don't usually fall in the middle of the week, and most states would have reported some update by that day each week.

New Legend:

Δ Change: Comparisons of Weekly Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths

Σ Increase: A week's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE:What's the overall change in the total?

You may access the archive of daily reports below, with the last daily update at the end, which was on 7/6/2021.

Day-to-Day Archive from 3/26/2020-7/6/2021
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6/16-6/22: <Baseline Week>

• Cases: 34,433,696
• Deaths: 617,864

6/23-6/30:

• Cases: 34,544,094 (+110,398 | Σ Increase: ↑0.32%)
• Deaths: 620,237 (+2,373 | Σ Increase: ↑0.38%)

7/1-7/7:

• Cases: 34,641,189 (+97,095 | ΔW Change: ↓12.05% | Σ Increase: ↑0.28%)
• Deaths: 621,851 (+1,614 | ΔW Change: ↓31.98% | Σ Increase: ↑0.26%)

7/8-7/14:

• Cases: 34,848,068 (+206,879 | ΔW Change: ↑113.07% | Σ Increase: ↑0.60%)
• Deaths: 623,838 (+1,987 | ΔW Change: ↑23.11% | Σ Increase: ↑0.32%)

7/15-7/21:

• Cases: 35,146,476 (+298,408 | ΔW Change: ↑44.24% | Σ Increase: ↑0.86%)
• Deaths: 625,808 (+1,970 | ΔW Change: ↓0.86% | Σ Increase: ↑0.32%)

7/22-7/28:

• Cases: 35,487,348 (+340,872 | ΔW Change: ↑14.23% | Σ Increase: ↑0.97%)
• Deaths: 628,098 (+2,290 | ΔW Change: ↑16.24% | Σ Increase: ↑0.37%)

7/29-8/4:

• Cases: 36,176,471 (+689,123 | ΔW Change: ↑102.17% | Σ Increase: ↑1.94%)
• Deaths: 631,299 (+3,201 | ΔW Change: ↑39.78% | Σ Increase: ↑0.51%)

8/5-8/11:

• Cases: 37,027,466 (+850,995 | ΔW Change: ↑23.49% | Σ Increase: ↑2.35%)
• Deaths: 635,629 (+4,330 | ΔW Change: ↑35.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.69%)

8/12-8/18:

• Cases: 38,072,249 (+1,044,783 | ΔW Change: ↑22.77% | Σ Increase: ↑2.82%)
• Deaths: 641,338 (+5,709 | ΔW Change: ↑31.85% | Σ Increase: ↑0.90%)

8/19-8/25:

• Cases: 39,155,175 (+1,082,926 | ΔW Change: ↑3.65% | Σ Increase: ↑2.84%)
• Deaths: 649,666 (+8,328 | ΔW Change: ↑45.87% | Σ Increase: ↑1.30%)

8/26-9/1: <Last Week>

• Cases: 40,335,450 (+1,180,275 | ΔW Change: ↑8.99% | Σ Increase: ↑3.01%)
• Deaths: 661,288 (+11,622 | ΔW Change: ↑39.55% | Σ Increase: ↑1.79%)

9/2-9/8: <This Week>

• Cases: 41,397,587 (+1,062,137 | ΔW Change: ↓10.01% | Σ Increase: ↑2.63%)
• Deaths: 671,183 (+9,895 | ΔW Change: ↓14.86% | Σ Increase: ↑1.50%)

[Calthrina950]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 9/2-9/8/2021 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

From March 2020 to mid-July 2021, I kept track of COVID-19 numbers daily. Now that there's a light at the end of the tunnel and states are staggering their daily updates, I am switching to a mid-week to mid-week model (Thursday to Wednesday).

Wednesdays are ideal for weekly updates since holidays don't usually fall in the middle of the week, and most states would have reported some update by that day each week.

New Legend:

Δ Change: Comparisons of Weekly Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths

Σ Increase: A week's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE:What's the overall change in the total?

You may access the archive of daily reports below, with the last daily update at the end, which was on 7/6/2021.

Day-to-Day Archive from 3/26/2020-7/6/2021
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6/16-6/22: <Baseline Week>

• Cases: 34,433,696
• Deaths: 617,864

6/23-6/30:

• Cases: 34,544,094 (+110,398 | Σ Increase: ↑0.32%)
• Deaths: 620,237 (+2,373 | Σ Increase: ↑0.38%)

7/1-7/7:

• Cases: 34,641,189 (+97,095 | ΔW Change: ↓12.05% | Σ Increase: ↑0.28%)
• Deaths: 621,851 (+1,614 | ΔW Change: ↓31.98% | Σ Increase: ↑0.26%)

7/8-7/14:

• Cases: 34,848,068 (+206,879 | ΔW Change: ↑113.07% | Σ Increase: ↑0.60%)
• Deaths: 623,838 (+1,987 | ΔW Change: ↑23.11% | Σ Increase: ↑0.32%)

7/15-7/21:

• Cases: 35,146,476 (+298,408 | ΔW Change: ↑44.24% | Σ Increase: ↑0.86%)
• Deaths: 625,808 (+1,970 | ΔW Change: ↓0.86% | Σ Increase: ↑0.32%)

7/22-7/28:

• Cases: 35,487,348 (+340,872 | ΔW Change: ↑14.23% | Σ Increase: ↑0.97%)
• Deaths: 628,098 (+2,290 | ΔW Change: ↑16.24% | Σ Increase: ↑0.37%)

7/29-8/4:

• Cases: 36,176,471 (+689,123 | ΔW Change: ↑102.17% | Σ Increase: ↑1.94%)
• Deaths: 631,299 (+3,201 | ΔW Change: ↑39.78% | Σ Increase: ↑0.51%)

8/5-8/11:

• Cases: 37,027,466 (+850,995 | ΔW Change: ↑23.49% | Σ Increase: ↑2.35%)
• Deaths: 635,629 (+4,330 | ΔW Change: ↑35.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.69%)

8/12-8/18:

• Cases: 38,072,249 (+1,044,783 | ΔW Change: ↑22.77% | Σ Increase: ↑2.82%)
• Deaths: 641,338 (+5,709 | ΔW Change: ↑31.85% | Σ Increase: ↑0.90%)

8/19-8/25:

• Cases: 39,155,175 (+1,082,926 | ΔW Change: ↑3.65% | Σ Increase: ↑2.84%)
• Deaths: 649,666 (+8,328 | ΔW Change: ↑45.87% | Σ Increase: ↑1.30%)

8/26-9/1: <Last Week>

• Cases: 40,335,450 (+1,180,275 | ΔW Change: ↑8.99% | Σ Increase: ↑3.01%)
• Deaths: 661,288 (+11,622 | ΔW Change: ↑39.55% | Σ Increase: ↑1.79%)

9/2-9/8: <This Week>

• Cases: 41,397,587 (+1,062,137 | ΔW Change: ↓10.01% | Σ Increase: ↑2.63%)
• Deaths: 671,183 (+9,895 | ΔW Change: ↓14.86% | Σ Increase: ↑1.50%)

It seems like we have positive trends for both cases and deaths for the first time in two months.

[DaleCooper]

If Pfizer watered down their vaccine doses just to minimize what are already quite mild side effects, then that's incredibly disturbing in my opinion. If that's true then I'm especially not eager to give them the benefit of the doubt on booster shots, and if a third shot becomes necessary I'd much rather get it from Moderna or J&J if that's safe.

[Calthrina950]

I am so fortunate that I got Moderna. And for months, we had been hearing that Pfizer was winning the vaccination race.

[DINGO Joe]

Reported deaths per 1 million pop using the 2020 Census instead of 2019 estimates (which Worldometer and CDC are still using)

1--New Jersey      2882
2--Mississippi       2755
3--New York         2705
4--Arizona            2606
5--Louisiana         2601
6--Massachusetts  2588
7--Rhode Island    2515
8--Alabama          2389
9--South Dakota   2321
10--Connecticut    2310 
11--Arkansas        2241

An update:

1--Mississippi       2968
2--New Jersey      2907
3--Louisiana         2773
4--New York         2725
5--Arizona            2668
6--Massachusetts  2605
7--Rhode Island    2536
8--Alabama           2468
9--Arkansas          2371
10--South Dakota  2342
11--Connecticut     2328
12--Pennsylvania   2193
13--Georgia           2184
14--Florida            2181
15--Indiana           2168
16--New Mexico     2161
17--Michigan         2159
18--South Carolina 2148
19--Nevada           2138
20--Illinois            2089
21--Oklahoma       2073
22--Texas              2031
National                2025
23--North Dakota   2012
24--Tennessee       1998

Oklahoma and Texas have enough momentum to knock Nevada and Illinois out of the top 20.  GA and FL will pass PA this week.  TN is the only state below the national avg that will likely move above it

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/1435964887872806913

[Sir Mohamed]

How likely will this end up before SCOTUS? And what are the chances the mandate gets struck down? Not sure there's a real legal argument as the constitution specifies authority of the prez over the executive branch, though the GOP and anti-waxers will go nuts.

[emailking]

How likely will this end up before SCOTUS? And what are the chances the mandate gets struck down? Not sure there's a real legal argument as the constitution specifies authority of the prez over the executive branch, though the GOP and anti-waxers will go nuts.

It might technically end up before them but I assume they will bat it down again. Barrett didn't even refer the challenge to a university mandate to the full court.

[pbrower2a]

How likely will this end up before SCOTUS? And what are the chances the mandate gets struck down? Not sure there's a real legal argument as the constitution specifies authority of the prez over the executive branch, though the GOP and anti-waxers will go nuts.

Will unions support a vaccine mandate? Probably. Civil-service rules?

The resentment that vaccinated people hold toward the unvaccinated is strong. People are dying because ICU's are heavily under the occupation of people who could have taken the easy measure of getting inoculated and did not.

We should be scared. We are all one vehicle crash away from having to get emergency treatment in a hospital.

[Dan the Roman]

Reported deaths per 1 million pop using the 2020 Census instead of 2019 estimates (which Worldometer and CDC are still using)

1--New Jersey      2882
2--Mississippi       2755
3--New York         2705
4--Arizona            2606
5--Louisiana         2601
6--Massachusetts  2588
7--Rhode Island    2515
8--Alabama          2389
9--South Dakota   2321
10--Connecticut    2310 
11--Arkansas        2241

An update:

1--Mississippi       2968
2--New Jersey      2907
3--Louisiana         2773
4--New York         2725
5--Arizona            2668
6--Massachusetts  2605
7--Rhode Island    2536
8--Alabama           2468
9--Arkansas          2371
10--South Dakota  2342
11--Connecticut     2328
12--Pennsylvania   2193
13--Georgia           2184
14--Florida            2181
15--Indiana           2168
16--New Mexico     2161
17--Michigan         2159
18--South Carolina 2148
19--Nevada           2138
20--Illinois            2089
21--Oklahoma       2073
22--Texas              2031
National                2025
23--North Dakota   2012
24--Tennessee       1998

Oklahoma and Texas have enough momentum to knock Nevada and Illinois out of the top 20.  GA and FL will pass PA this week.  TN is the only state below the national avg that will likely move above it

Given trajectory of cases/deaths and backlog to CDC I think it is highly likely Florida will be around 51,000 a month from now, and hence above CT. There are clearly 600-900 missing August deaths, and 1200-1500 from September even if no one further dies. Then maybe an average of 2000-3000 for the rest of the month.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

How likely will this end up before SCOTUS? And what are the chances the mandate gets struck down? Not sure there's a real legal argument as the constitution specifies authority of the prez over the executive branch, though the GOP and anti-waxers will go nuts.

I wouldn't think there are any constitutional problems with respect to executive branch employees.
But I do wonder about separation of powers issues to the extent that it applies to employees of other branches.

Certainly there are some federal employees that this CANNOT apply to.  For example, federal judges and members of Congress have their qualifications specified in the Constitution, and the President has no authority (and shouldn't have any authority) over the conditions of their employee.  But could this apply to congressional staffers or clerks?  I'm not really sure.

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/cnnbrk/status/1436027065170530311

[Skill and Chance]

Reported deaths per 1 million pop using the 2020 Census instead of 2019 estimates (which Worldometer and CDC are still using)

1--New Jersey      2882
2--Mississippi       2755
3--New York         2705
4--Arizona            2606
5--Louisiana         2601
6--Massachusetts  2588
7--Rhode Island    2515
8--Alabama          2389
9--South Dakota   2321
10--Connecticut    2310 
11--Arkansas        2241

An update:

1--Mississippi       2968
2--New Jersey      2907
3--Louisiana         2773
4--New York         2725
5--Arizona            2668
6--Massachusetts  2605
7--Rhode Island    2536
8--Alabama           2468
9--Arkansas          2371
10--South Dakota  2342
11--Connecticut     2328
12--Pennsylvania   2193
13--Georgia           2184
14--Florida            2181
15--Indiana           2168
16--New Mexico     2161
17--Michigan         2159
18--South Carolina 2148
19--Nevada           2138
20--Illinois            2089
21--Oklahoma       2073
22--Texas              2031
National                2025
23--North Dakota   2012
24--Tennessee       1998

Oklahoma and Texas have enough momentum to knock Nevada and Illinois out of the top 20.  GA and FL will pass PA this week.  TN is the only state below the national avg that will likely move above it

It's remarkable just how badly Louisiana has done.  There would have been many reasons to hope it would have the best results in the South (the Catholic Church being a lot more pro-vaccine/masks/social distancing than most Southern Protestant churches, swamps creating island/peninsula style geography in much of the state, the governor being open to stricter measures than neighbors, etc.).  Some of this was from the initial wave in NOLA back on Mardi Gras 2020 before anyone knew enough, but most of the damage is now cumulative from the later outbreaks. 

[emailking]

How likely will this end up before SCOTUS? And what are the chances the mandate gets struck down? Not sure there's a real legal argument as the constitution specifies authority of the prez over the executive branch, though the GOP and anti-waxers will go nuts.

I wouldn't think there are any constitutional problems with respect to executive branch employees.
But I do wonder about separation of powers issues to the extent that it applies to employees of other branches.

Certainly there are some federal employees that this CANNOT apply to.  For example, federal judges and members of Congress have their qualifications specified in the Constitution, and the President has no authority (and shouldn't have any authority) over the conditions of their employee.  But could this apply to congressional staffers or clerks?  I'm not really sure.

Hmm, I was assuming it would apply to all federal employees/contractors that Biden has authority over. If it were to extend to the other branches I agree there's an issue there.

[Mr. Matt]

https://twitter.com/cnnbrk/status/1436027065170530311

I guess the only "emergency" in this case is just to save DeSantis's face (pardon the pun).

[Inmate Trump]

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/09/biden-to-detail-new-six-pronged-plan-to-increase-us-covid-vaccination-rates-fight-virus.html?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=news_tab&utm_content=algorithm


This article says

“Biden is also expected to ask the U.S. Department of Labor to issue a rule that employers with more than 100 employees must require vaccines or testing, according to NBC News.”

Does that mean exactly what it sounds like? Any business with over 100 employees has to require vaccines/regular testing now?  So…not just federal employees?


And I wonder if this would apply to local county governments…

[Mr. Morden]

This article says

“Biden is also expected to ask the U.S. Department of Labor to issue a rule that employers with more than 100 employees must require vaccines or testing, according to NBC News.”

Does that mean exactly what it sounds like? Any business with over 100 employees has to require vaccines/regular testing now?  So…not just federal employees?

And I'd assume that it would only apply to employees who are not working from home?  It would be weird for an employer to require employees to be vaccinated if the employee in question never leaves their house, but the article doesn't make that distinction.