COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[compucomp]

After they said "Masks don't work" and "COVID is not airborne" while attempting to manipulate public opinion to prevent panic or a run on available masks or whatever, maybe they should refrain from trying the "white lie" strategy again.

As I said before, although you ignored it, no scientist ever gave those quotes.

At the start of the pandemic, Fauci told people not to wear masks, and later justified it because saying the truth would have caused a shortage of masks for doctors (link: https://www.cnn.com/factsfirst/politics/factcheck_e58c20c6-8735-4022-a1f5-1580bc732c45). Surgeon General Jerome Adams tweeted the following: "Seriously people- STOP BUYING MASKS!" and "They are NOT effective in preventing general public from catching #Coronavirus"

On the airborne issue, here's a blurb in an article from May 10, 2021:

https://www.baltimoresun.com/coronavirus/ct-aud-nw-nyt-coronavirus-fauci-masks-20210510-jd2nxxx5evapdej3bn7rhpjvf4-story.html

On Friday, the CDC updated its guidance about how the coronavirus spreads, stating explicitly that people can inhale airborne virus even when they are more than 6 feet away from an infected individual. Previously, the agency had said that most infections were acquired through “close contact, not airborne transmission.”

And only in October 2020, at which point it was already obvious, did the CDC acknowledge that the virus could be airborne:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/07/cdc-confirms-airborne-transmission-of-covid-19-how-to-prevent-spread.html

There's no way to deny that these two "white lie" attempts by public health officials completely backfired and substantially impacted their credibility.

All of that is fine, you could have made those points, but the quotes you gave do not exist and it sounds like you agree. No scientist would have ever said those things.

I made one liner summaries of the public health messaging of the time, and they are  accurate summaries. It's irrelevant whether anyone actually said those exact words or not (and the WHO did say "masks don't work"), the one-liners are the message they intended to send.

The core fact remains that the public health authorities tried to manipulate the public with misleading statements and outright lies on these issues, it backfired completely, and it has substantially hurt their credibility. Now they're at risk of doing the same with booster shots and I'm against it 100%.

[emailking]

I just don't think you should present quotes that aren't quotes even if you have a larger point. I know people do it on this site all the time but it's still inaccurate and wrong. In this case, it's an unfair knock against scientists who are very careful in their wording and don't use definitive language like that unless they are sure.

[compucomp]

I just don't think you should present quotes that aren't quotes even if you have a larger point. I know people do it on this site all the time but it's still inaccurate and wrong. In this case, it's an unfair knock against scientists who are very careful in their wording and don't use definitive language like that unless they are sure.

That's simply not true in this case. Jerome Adams was quite definitive in his tweets. Fauci said on March 8, 2020 that “there’s no reason to be walking around with a mask”. Clearly they wanted to send the message that masks don't work. Then the WHO calls reports that COVID-19 is airborne misinformation? How is that not definitively saying that COVID-19 is not airborne? If the CDC only acknowledges in October 2020 that airborne/aerosol spread is a possibility, then prior to that, they could only be asserting that COVID-19 is not airborne.

[Ferguson97]

After they said "Masks don't work" and "COVID is not airborne" while attempting to manipulate public opinion to prevent panic or a run on available masks or whatever, maybe they should refrain from trying the "white lie" strategy again.

As I said before, although you ignored it, no scientist ever gave those quotes.

The WHO is not "a scientist," it is an organization, but it was spreading this incorrect information back in March 2020, with literally those exact words in its public communications:

https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1243972193169616898

You could find similar things from the CDC for example (likewise not "a scientist," but an organization).

In fact, if you read the fine print in the picture embedded in the twee, they actually called the truth that COVID is in fact airborne to be "misinformation" !!!

Wow it’s almost like we’ve learned new information since the first month of the virus

[emailking]

That's simply not true in this case. Jerome Adams was quite definitive in his tweets. Fauci said on March 8, 2020 that “there’s no reason to be walking around with a mask”. Clearly they wanted to send the message that masks don't work. Then the WHO calls reports that COVID-19 is airborne misinformation? How is that not definitively saying that COVID-19 is not airborne? If the CDC only acknowledges in October 2020 that airborne/aerosol spread is a possibility, then prior to that, they could only be asserting that COVID-19 is not airborne.

Fauci's quote is not "masks don't work" even if you impute that meaning from it (I disagree), so that's not an example of of that not being true. What is Jerome Adams's tweet?

[GP270watch]

 Moderna did a review of people who were 13 months out from their trial and found only 1% breakthrough infection rate(162 out of 14,000) and even lower numbers of severe cases and hospitalizations.

[compucomp]

That's simply not true in this case. Jerome Adams was quite definitive in his tweets. Fauci said on March 8, 2020 that “there’s no reason to be walking around with a mask”. Clearly they wanted to send the message that masks don't work. Then the WHO calls reports that COVID-19 is airborne misinformation? How is that not definitively saying that COVID-19 is not airborne? If the CDC only acknowledges in October 2020 that airborne/aerosol spread is a possibility, then prior to that, they could only be asserting that COVID-19 is not airborne.

Fauci's quote is not "masks don't work" even if you impute that meaning from it (I disagree), so that's not an example of of that not being true. What is Jerome Adams's tweet?

Jerome Adams tweeted "Seriously people- STOP BUYING MASKS!" and "They are NOT effective in preventing general public from catching #Coronavirus". Quite definitive. Again, it doesn't matter what the exact quote is since it is clear that they meant to say "masks don't work".

I'm not saying you're a Trumpist, but you're reminding me of Trump's press secretaries who tried to clean up Trump's tweets by telling us with various deflections and obfuscations that their "true" meaning is not their clear English meaning.

[emailking]

Jerome Adams tweeted "Seriously people- STOP BUYING MASKS!" and "They are NOT effective in preventing general public from catching #Coronavirus". Quite definitive. Again, it doesn't matter what the exact quote is since it is clear that they meant to say "masks don't work".

I'm not saying you're a Trumpist, but you're reminding me of Trump's press secretaries who tried to clean up Trump's tweets by telling us with various deflections and obfuscations that their "true" meaning is not their clear English meaning.

That also is not the quote you gave so again is also not an example of it not being true. Yes it does matter. I'm not trying to clean anything up. I think Adams should have been clearer about why people should not have been wearing masks at that point and he was wrong to say that they were not effective. I think my posts about Trump speak for themselves.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Moderna did a review of people who were 13 months out from their trial and found only 1% breakthrough infection rate(162 out of 14,000) and even lower numbers of severe cases and hospitalizations.

This is the way a vaccine is supposed to work, and it all makes sense now that we know that Pfizer watered down its vaccine to make sure no one got a headache and a mild fever and was then immediately surrounded by a hundred news cameras to talk about their horrible side effects.

[Calthrina950]

Moderna did a review of people who were 13 months out from their trial and found only 1% breakthrough infection rate(162 out of 14,000) and even lower numbers of severe cases and hospitalizations.

Once again, I'm so glad I got Moderna.

[Inmate Trump]

Moderna did a review of people who were 13 months out from their trial and found only 1% breakthrough infection rate(162 out of 14,000) and even lower numbers of severe cases and hospitalizations.

Great news, for Moderna recipients like myself.  Do you have a link to this review?

[Hammy]

Moderna did a review of people who were 13 months out from their trial and found only 1% breakthrough infection rate(162 out of 14,000) and even lower numbers of severe cases and hospitalizations.

So whats this mean for the majority who got Pfizer?

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

The WHO is not "a scientist," it is an organization, but it was spreading this incorrect information back in March 2020, with literally those exact words in its public communications:

I don't know how to explain that WHO tweet. They shouldn't have posted that.

Here's the explanation, with breakdown, from The Economist (May, 2021). It's quite good, and cleanly lays out how and why WHO went wrong on this key point.

The World Health Organization recently admitted that Coronavirus is airborne and has updated its public health guidance with the following statement on how the SARS-CoV-2 virus is transmitted:

"A person can be infected when aerosols or droplets containing the virus are inhaled or come directly into contact with the eyes, nose, or mouth. The virus can also spread in poorly ventilated and/or crowded indoor settings, where people tend to spend longer periods of time. This is because aerosols remain suspended in the air or travel farther than 1 metre (long-range)."

WHO's statement explains why it ended-up being wrong about how Coronavirus spreads: it distinguished between 'droplets' and 'aerosols' then assumed only what WHO considers to be an aerosol can fly far enough to be called 'airborne'.

(And to preempt any COVID-deniers, there is a qualitative difference between an organization that makes a large mistake, even out of organizational arrogance and inertia, and the agreesive BS-spreading constantly done on the right. Attempts to conflate the two ought to result in a swift trip to hell.)

[GP270watch]

Moderna did a review of people who were 13 months out from their trial and found only 1% breakthrough infection rate(162 out of 14,000) and even lower numbers of severe cases and hospitalizations.

Great news, for Moderna recipients like myself.  Do you have a link to this review?

Yes


  https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/moderna-says-covid-19-vaccine-protection-wanes-makes-case-booster-2021-09-15/

 The news headlines are framing it as Moderna wanting to sell more boosters because they saw that 13 months vs 8 months did show the protection wanes with time but overall like I said the breakthrough was very low for those from mid-2020.


Moderna says COVID-19 vaccine protection wanes, makes case for booster

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 9/9-9/15/2021 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

From March 2020 to mid-July 2021, I kept track of COVID-19 numbers daily. Now that there's a light at the end of the tunnel and states are staggering their daily updates, I am switching to a mid-week to mid-week model (Thursday to Wednesday).

Wednesdays are ideal for weekly updates since holidays don't usually fall in the middle of the week, and most states would have reported some update by that day each week.

New Legend:

Δ Change: Comparisons of Weekly Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths

Σ Increase: A week's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE:What's the overall change in the total?

You may access the archive of daily reports below, with the last daily update at the end, which was on 7/6/2021.

Day-to-Day Archive from 3/26/2020-7/6/2021
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6/16-6/22: <Baseline Week>

• Cases: 34,433,696
• Deaths: 617,864

6/23-6/30:

• Cases: 34,544,094 (+110,398 | Σ Increase: ↑0.32%)
• Deaths: 620,237 (+2,373 | Σ Increase: ↑0.38%)

7/1-7/7:

• Cases: 34,641,189 (+97,095 | ΔW Change: ↓12.05% | Σ Increase: ↑0.28%)
• Deaths: 621,851 (+1,614 | ΔW Change: ↓31.98% | Σ Increase: ↑0.26%)

7/8-7/14:

• Cases: 34,848,068 (+206,879 | ΔW Change: ↑113.07% | Σ Increase: ↑0.60%)
• Deaths: 623,838 (+1,987 | ΔW Change: ↑23.11% | Σ Increase: ↑0.32%)

7/15-7/21:

• Cases: 35,146,476 (+298,408 | ΔW Change: ↑44.24% | Σ Increase: ↑0.86%)
• Deaths: 625,808 (+1,970 | ΔW Change: ↓0.86% | Σ Increase: ↑0.32%)

7/22-7/28:

• Cases: 35,487,348 (+340,872 | ΔW Change: ↑14.23% | Σ Increase: ↑0.97%)
• Deaths: 628,098 (+2,290 | ΔW Change: ↑16.24% | Σ Increase: ↑0.37%)

7/29-8/4:

• Cases: 36,176,471 (+689,123 | ΔW Change: ↑102.17% | Σ Increase: ↑1.94%)
• Deaths: 631,299 (+3,201 | ΔW Change: ↑39.78% | Σ Increase: ↑0.51%)

8/5-8/11:

• Cases: 37,027,466 (+850,995 | ΔW Change: ↑23.49% | Σ Increase: ↑2.35%)
• Deaths: 635,629 (+4,330 | ΔW Change: ↑35.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.69%)

8/12-8/18:

• Cases: 38,072,249 (+1,044,783 | ΔW Change: ↑22.77% | Σ Increase: ↑2.82%)
• Deaths: 641,338 (+5,709 | ΔW Change: ↑31.85% | Σ Increase: ↑0.90%)

8/19-8/25:

• Cases: 39,155,175 (+1,082,926 | ΔW Change: ↑3.65% | Σ Increase: ↑2.84%)
• Deaths: 649,666 (+8,328 | ΔW Change: ↑45.87% | Σ Increase: ↑1.30%)

8/26-9/1:

• Cases: 40,335,450 (+1,180,275 | ΔW Change: ↑8.99% | Σ Increase: ↑3.01%)
• Deaths: 661,288 (+11,622 | ΔW Change: ↑39.55% | Σ Increase: ↑1.79%)

9/2-9/8: <Last Week>

• Cases: 41,397,587 (+1,062,137 | ΔW Change: ↓10.01% | Σ Increase: ↑2.63%)
• Deaths: 671,183 (+9,895 | ΔW Change: ↓14.86% | Σ Increase: ↑1.50%)

9/9-9/15: <This Week>

• Cases: 42,464,432 (+1,066,845 | ΔW Change: ↑0.44% | Σ Increase: ↑2.58%)
• Deaths: 684,839 (+13,656 | ΔW Change: ↑38.01% | Σ Increase: ↑2.03%)

[compucomp]

Jerome Adams tweeted "Seriously people- STOP BUYING MASKS!" and "They are NOT effective in preventing general public from catching #Coronavirus". Quite definitive. Again, it doesn't matter what the exact quote is since it is clear that they meant to say "masks don't work".

I'm not saying you're a Trumpist, but you're reminding me of Trump's press secretaries who tried to clean up Trump's tweets by telling us with various deflections and obfuscations that their "true" meaning is not their clear English meaning.

That also is not the quote you gave so again is also not an example of it not being true. Yes it does matter. I'm not trying to clean anything up. I think Adams should have been clearer about why people should not have been wearing masks at that point and he was wrong to say that they were not effective. I think my posts about Trump speak for themselves.

No, it really doesn't matter. The message in March 2020 from public health officials was loud and clear, masks don't work so don't go out and buy them, whether they used those exact words or not. You're just picking at technicalities. In April/May, when they shifted to recommending masks always, the argument that "you told us masks didn't work, why do we have to wear them now" was the first cause of anti-mask sentiment and it endures to this day.

Whatever mask supply they preserved for medical personnel was far outweighed by the permanent damage they did to their credibility and the cause of getting people to wear masks. This attempt to manipulate the public with a "white lie" was a complete and utter disaster.

[emailking]

I don't really disagree that much with your point.  All I was trying to get across was that the quotes aren't real. You've admitted no one said the quotes. Just say you're paraphrasing or something next time.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Question for the Americans.

How are people going with entering society in it's current state?

I spoke to an American yesterday about not sending Fedex, but he said there was no alternative as he was not prepared to visit the USPS in San Francisco at the risk of becoming infected.

In Western Australia, we have no COVID, so it's something that does not come to mind at present.

Any tips, behaviours or places that you are avoiding to reduce chances of infection.

Man, live your normal live, but, for God's sake, check your balls from time to time.

https://twitter.com/NICKIMINAJ/status/1437532566945341441

[GP270watch]

The government of Trinidad and Tobago has already told Harajuku Barbie to STFU.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Moderna did a review of people who were 13 months out from their trial and found only 1% breakthrough infection rate(162 out of 14,000) and even lower numbers of severe cases and hospitalizations.

That is nice, and certainly better than if it were higher, but it is not a particularly statistically useful way to look at it. The correct way to measure efficacy would be to compare to a control group, because during the period after they were vaccinated, the entire population did not become infected, only a sub-portion of it. You would also want to compare to an unvaxxinated control group within the study (which I don't think exists any more for obvious ethical reasons) rather than the general public, because there is probably selection bias - people who choose to participate in vaccine studies are likely to be more health conscious in general and more likely to exhibit behaviors such as consistent mask wearing and being more careful/conscientious than average.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Biden really declared victory too soon.

[SnowLabrador]

https://www.propublica.org/article/a-boy-went-to-a-covid-swamped-er-he-waited-for-hours-then-his-appendix-burst

An absolutely heartbreaking story. Fortunately the boy survived, but it's a reminder that anti-vaxxers are causing plenty of indirect deaths.

[pppolitics]

Biden really declared victory too soon.

Biden is already victorious.

The vaccine is readily available.

The overwhelming majority of people who are dying from COVID are unvaccinated.

[Matty]

Vermont has reached the highest number of new daily cases than at anytime since the pandemic began.

It’s incredible

We can see in real time the virus shift north as the season changes

Just like last year.

Luckily the vax rate will help mitigate deaths.

[pbrower2a]

We just surpassed the populations of the cities of Boston (24th largest), El Paso (23rd largest), and Oklahoma City (22nd largest). That's the equivalent of roughly twenty-three 9/11 attacks in sheer volume of death, four of them last week alone.

We go to great lengths to reduce the death from vehicle collisions, and I do not feel any sympathy for people nailed for 78 mph on a 70 mph rural freeway as the result of enhanced enforcement by the state troopers.