COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[GeorgiaModerate]

As discussed earlier, Cherokee County in suburban Atlanta started school yesterday.  And today:

Cherokee quarantines second-grade class after student tests positive for COVID-19

[GeorgiaModerate]

It's pretty similar to March though in that there's widespread community transmission. Schooling is important, but there's no way it'll be safe with the situation being as it is currently. And the way to get case numbers down quickly enough to start reopening some stuff and not to have an agonising drawn-out economic & health disaster is to go for a hard lockdown.

America had a hard lockdown for 2 months. It didn't work.

You think that was a hard lockdown?

[GeorgiaModerate]

I was actually glad to see the photo of the crowded high school in Georgia, which looked almost like any ordinary school year. I thought Georgia had one of the worse rates of COVID right now.

If Georgia can get this close to normal, most other places can.

Did you see the article I posted earlier that Cherokee County, the first district to open yesterday, has already had to send home a second-grade class and teacher to quarantine for 14 days because one of the students has tested positive?  

This is nothing more than an illusion of normality.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1291117316831432715

[GeorgiaModerate]

Several students in the Corinth School District in Mississippi have been infected with Covid-19 a little over a week after in-person classes resumed.

Taylor Coombs, spokesperson for the Corinth School District, told CNN that six students and one staff member tested positive for the coronavirus. According to Coombs, 116 students that have been considered in "close contact" of a positive case have been sent home to quarantine for 14 days.

The student population in the district is 2700.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/05/us/mississippi-school-district-coronavirus-trnd/index.html

[GeorgiaModerate]

An update on Cherokee County, which we've discussed before:

In an updated COVID-19 case count Wednesday evening, the Cherokee County School District added one middle and two elementary schools to its list of affected schools. These schools are in addition to Sixes Elementary, which had the first known COVID-19 case Monday, the first day of classes in the district.

As with Sixes Elementary, students and staff are quarantining at all three schools.

https://www.ajc.com/education/get-schooled-blog/cherokee-reports-covid-19-cases-in-three-more-schools/V6K7XGLZXVHRTFI7E6BSXZIQAU/

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/RodneyDavis/status/1291151261006471168

I wonder if he got it from Louie Gohmert.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Speaking of North Paulding High School:

“At this time, we know there were six students and three staff members who were in school for at least some time last week who have since reported to us that they have tested positive,” says a letter from North Paulding High School Principal Gabe Carmona to parents Saturday.
...
The letter to parents does not include information on whether any other students or staff who were exposed have to quarantine or whether any classrooms will be closed. “Our custodial staff continues to thoroughly clean and disinfect the school building daily, and especially affected areas,” the letter says.

https://www.ajc.com/education/9-cases-of-covid-19-reported-at-north-paulding-high-school/OWH6MN7DZ5A2XDQMXX337AQEWI/

[GeorgiaModerate]

Theresa Lyons, who sits on the Paulding County BOE, suggested students change seats every 14 mins to get around this.

Brilliant! Just brilliant! Absolutely amazing work. 

It's a perfect example of creative idiocy.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/ChrisJoseWSB/status/1292564766100279296

[GeorgiaModerate]

One of the items in today's Political Insider blog at the Atlanta Journal-Constitution:

After photos of mask-less students at a Paulding County high school went viral, state Rep. Beth Moore had an idea.

The Democrat from Peachtree Corners set up an anonymous inbox -- reportmyschool@gmail.com -- for whistleblower tips, photos and videos about unsafe conditions at Georgia schools.

She says she’s been both overwhelmed and “shellshocked” by the response -- hundreds of messages in the last two days. The worst, she says, came from a teacher she verified as working in a north Georgia school district.

“I am planning for 27 students in my tiny classroom,” the unnamed teacher wrote her. “They are not making masks mandatory. My principal is joking to people that this is ‘god’s cleansing plan.’”

[GeorgiaModerate]

One of the items in today's Political Insider blog at the Atlanta Journal-Constitution:

After photos of mask-less students at a Paulding County high school went viral, state Rep. Beth Moore had an idea.

The Democrat from Peachtree Corners set up an anonymous inbox -- reportmyschool@gmail.com -- for whistleblower tips, photos and videos about unsafe conditions at Georgia schools.

She says she’s been both overwhelmed and “shellshocked” by the response -- hundreds of messages in the last two days. The worst, she says, came from a teacher she verified as working in a north Georgia school district.

“I am planning for 27 students in my tiny classroom,” the unnamed teacher wrote her. “They are not making masks mandatory. My principal is joking to people that this is ‘god’s cleansing plan.’”

Clearly it's not realistic to require masks in schools. Adults can barely wear one for 5 minutes when they go to the grocery.

I think we can do better than this sort of dystopia.

But I think the photos from the school actually did a positive service. It shows we can have schools that are almost normal even in one of the more hard-hit states. If you can have school in Georgia, why not Vermont or Maine?

Seriously?  I see plenty of people (adults, teens, younger kids) wearing masks the whole time they're grocery shopping when I'm there, and for much longer than 5 minutes.   Since Kroger and Walmart instituted their mask mandates, the rate of conformance has been effectively 100%.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Cherokee County in metro Atlanta, which started school a week ago, has 826 students and 42 staff members in quarantine. 38 students and 12 staff have tested positive.

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-08-10-20-intl/h_ab1297c9eb034a496c046f1a9f00c1ae

[GeorgiaModerate]

Further developments from our favorite metro Atlanta county:

Etowah High School in Cherokee County will close until the end of the month as administrators try to contain the rapidly-growing COVID-19 case count at the school.

The school made news last week after scores of students without masks were pictured shoulder-to-shoulder in a group photo on the first day of school.

The school will be closed until Aug. 31.

“As of this morning, the number of positive cases at the school had increased to a total of 14, with tests for another 15 students pending; and, as a result of the confirmed cases, 294 students and staff are under quarantine and, should the pending tests prove positive, that total would increase dramatically,” Cherokee Superintendent Brian Hightower announced Tuesday afternoon.

https://www.ajc.com/education/cherokee-closing-etowah-high-until-aug-31-after-rise-in-covid-19-cases/AKVISQE7NBFA3A3KH46SX6FXFE/

Yes, school reopening in Georgia is going superbly.

[GeorgiaModerate]

What is the consensus about the virus "running its course" because of herd immunity? That is, things start to get better because enough people have already had the virus? Could it be happening now? Could we know by September?

Back when Arizona was really bad, I said it would be the next Connecticut or New York, and the number of cases would drop off significantly because of herd immunity. It's clearly happening now.

There's just no other conclusion as to why states that were once among the worst are now some of the best.

Well, no, there are other plausible explanations.  For one: when things get bad in a location, it motivates people there to change their behavior in such a way as to bring things under control after a certain time lag.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Could there be partial herd immunity in some of the hardest-hit areas by now?  Sure, it's quite possible.  But it's certainly not the ONLY explanation for case decreases.  These factors all interact with each other.  For example, partial herd immunity may reduce R by a small amount, while increased social distancing also does so.  So the combination of both in a particular area might push R below 1, when neither factor by itself would do so.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Things continue to go swimmingly in Cherokee County:

A second high school in Cherokee County was closed today and nearly 300 students and staff are quarantined after the district confirmed more than a dozen cases of COVID-19.

Woodstock High School will close to in-person learning until Aug. 31 for deep cleaning after the district said the number of confirmed coronavirus cases have climbed to 14, Cherokee County Schools Superintendent Dr. Brian Hightower said. Tests for an additional 15 students are pending, he added.

https://www.ajc.com/news/atlanta-news/woodstock-high-school-closes-after-14-confirmed-covid-19-cases/K2T4EJPJ4RAYZKXFBCSE7LUU5Y/

[GeorgiaModerate]

This is a weird story: Judge thanks and sentences acclaimed Georgia Tech coronavirus researcher

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://mobile.twitter.com/6abc/status/1293891405736271873

Who knew that ending the $600 unemployment subsidy would mean folks would go out and apply for work?

Huh?  Lower unemployment claims mean that fewer people got laid off, not that more are looking for work.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://mobile.twitter.com/6abc/status/1293891405736271873

Who knew that ending the $600 unemployment subsidy would mean folks would go out and apply for work?

Huh?  Lower unemployment claims mean that fewer people got laid off, not that more are looking for work.

It's the number first-time unemployment claims (not "layoffs" per se), and continuing claims were also down by 600,000.  The total number of Americans claiming unemployment fell by more than 3 million to 28.26 million for the week ending July 25.  The data suggests enhanced benefits provide an incentive for people to stay away from returning to work. 

Um, the $600 benefit was still being paid through that time period.

Maybe it's just that the economy is continuing to climb out of a big hole?  I think you're trying too hard to tie these statistics to the end of the extra unemployment benefit.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Stanford study shows teens who vape are 5x-7x more likely to develop COVID-19 symptoms, even controlling for confounding factors

I don’t understand why people think it’s safe to vape anyways.
It’s honestly probably more dangerous than conventional cigarettes and the pulmonologist researchers I’ve talked to agree.
It’s such a shame America‘s drug culture is becoming so permissive.

I agree, especially with the reports of mysterious lung illnesses in some vapers.

It seems logical that any kind of smoking/vaping could increase the risk factor for COVID-19.  Have there been any studies about its effects in tobacco or marijuana smokers?

[GeorgiaModerate]

White House warns of ‘widespread and expanding’ COVID-19 spread in Georgia

President Trump’s coronavirus task force warns that Georgia continues to see “widespread and expanding community viral spread” and that the state’s current policies aren’t enough to curtail COVID-19.

The task force “strongly recommends” Georgia adopt a statewide mandate that citizens wear masks, joining a chorus of public health officials, Democrats and others who have warned that Gov. Brian Kemp’s refusal to order face coverings has plunged the state into deeper crisis and will prolong recovery.

[GeorgiaModerate]

White House warns of ‘widespread and expanding’ COVID-19 spread in Georgia

President Trump’s coronavirus task force warns that Georgia continues to see “widespread and expanding community viral spread” and that the state’s current policies aren’t enough to curtail COVID-19.

The task force “strongly recommends” Georgia adopt a statewide mandate that citizens wear masks, joining a chorus of public health officials, Democrats and others who have warned that Gov. Brian Kemp’s refusal to order face coverings has plunged the state into deeper crisis and will prolong recovery.

Are folks in Georgia actually afraid of this virus?

Some are.  Some aren't.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Update from Cherokee County after two weeks of school:

As this second week of school comes to a close, the district is reporting 80 confirmed cases of the coronavirus and 1,106 students and staffers quarantined as a result. Last week ended with 28 cases and 563 under quarantine in the district of about 40,000 students.

The number of infected students more than tripled, to 66 from 20. Five staffers tested positive this week compared with one last week, and nine teachers compared with seven last week.

https://www.ajc.com/education/weekly-covid-19-count-nearly-triples-in-cherokee-county-schools/XYXNYDB4ZZGXTDT5Y7ASYCNNPA/

[GeorgiaModerate]

Cherokee County update: 3rd high school now closed due to COVID-19.

Creekview High School in Canton is suspending in-person learning effective immediately through Aug. 31, according to a spokeswoman for the county school district.

The decision came after more than a quarter of the 1,800 students taking in-person classes at the high school were directed to quarantine. The school district said it’s expecting the number of quarantined students to “significantly increase” once pending tests are returned.