COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[Virginiá]

New thread.

Old thread: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=370528.0

[GoTfan]

A few weeks from now, there’s a good chance that those saying that Europe did so much better then the US at controlling the virus are going to look like Ron DeSantis bragging about how Florida responded better New York.

Spain has gone from averaging 300 cases/day a month ago to 2000 cases/day, and it looks like its second wave has just started growing.  Belgium, which already had the highest death rate in the world, has grown from 100 cases/day to 600 in the same time frame.  Even Germany has seen their cases double in the past two weeks.

Lockdowns do not prevent the spread of the virus, they just delay it.

Fair enough.
Lockdowns aren’t a strategy, they are a way of bringing cases down to the point you CAN have a good strategy.
If you are in a US or Italy situation, no amount of contact tracing will solve the issue.
I still would argue France and Germany did better than us, but Italy, Spain, and the UK are more debatable. However, combined those countries are doing better than us NOW.

Imho Vietnam is a good example of how we should have done things early on (although even they are going to have a wave soon)

If your idea of what needs to be done to control the pandemic is completely detached from any sort of empirical reality (you hold up Vietnam's response, while admitting they are going to have a wave soon; and you still praise European countries who have had comparatively more deaths that the U.S. despite even harsher lockdowns) then the "mask's off" that driving Americans into quarantine was always more about ideology to you than actual science.  

1. I said European countries are doing better right NOW. Funny how you couldn’t read the one word in all-caps. I guess I should have bolded it as well. They did worse in March, although some of that was just due to bad luck and lack of knowledge of the virus. They all still should have banned flights from China early on and enforced masks everywhere back when there were only a few hundred cases.
2. Vietnam is a developing country and I do think developing countries will have a much more difficult time controlling Covid, and they have thus far been successful. Also, a Vietnamese “wave” would be wonderful to have now in the US. Maybe you should look at their numbers thus far.
3. You want to talk about ideology?
You are the one who refuses to admit he was wrong before about certain things. You are the walking definition of an ideological hack these days. You take things out of context, you twist studies to fit your beliefs, and you are selectively illiterate whenever it’s convenient.
I oftentimes buck my own party, I even spoke out against BLM protests over virus concerns. But of course, anyone who even wants to admit this virus is dangerous is an ideological hack.

We are all goddamn tired of your “everything is okay” shtick. It may have been cute back in March but it sure as hell isn’t now that many people have seen firsthand just how bad this can be.

 I may be extreme in how I want to control the virus, but at least I have ideas that don’t involve burying my thick skull in the sand and pretending everything is alright.
You constantly talk about how keeping schools closed is bad for those in poverty while refusing to even talk about how a system which renders families unable to feed themselves at their house is an inherently flawed and dangerous system. You say masks are bad yet don’t want lockdowns either. There are hundreds of innovative solutions we can come up with that don’t involve f**king around and doing nothing.
Stop with your bs and for gods sake, stop taking my words out of context and at least try to think for about five seconds before posting.

Not saying I disagree, but Jesus Christ man, calm the f**k down.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

People are done listening to the "Lockdown! Lockdown! Lockdown!" types.

We wouldn’t have as big of a problem if people listened to them in the first place.

[Progressive Pessimist]

People are done listening to the "Lockdown! Lockdown! Lockdown!" types.

We wouldn’t have as big of a problem if people listened to them in the first place.

In fairness the bigger problem was state and local governments getting impatient and lifting the lock-downs themselves even in spite of the risks.

You can more accurately blame ordinary people for not abiding by mask-wearing or social distancing protocols though. That was the next fail-safe.

[pbrower2a]

Even those who supported the initial lockdowns were looking for safe ways in which to relax it. Opening golf courses and tennis courts might be politically incorrect when basketball courts are closed... but two of those ar comparatively safe and the other isn't.

Big Business has called many of the shots, especially on customer behavior. It took until July, but Wal*Mart where I live finally started enforcing mask rules. If you came without one, you get one. 

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Cherokee County, Georgia, a few miles to my west, is opening schools today.  Some highlights:

Out of 43K students, 23% will be starting remotely.  Whichever option parents decided (home or remote), they have to stay committed to that for the first nine weeks for elementary schools, and the entire fall semester for middle and high school.

Face masks are mandatory for teachers and staff, but only recommended for students.

Due to space constraints, they will not be able to consistently maintain six feet of distance between students.

The district is not doing temperature checks. They ask parents to check their child’s temperature before coming to school and getting on the bus daily, and the same goes for school staff.

I expect this to be a disaster.

https://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/this-1st-day-school-cherokee-county-will-look-very-different-than-other-years/SXIPJOW2JJG3VPJTMFBT3OJQEU/

Aug. 3 is much too early even in a normal year. Other than that, I don't think there'll be any problems. I guess somebody had to go back early just to prove school is doable.

A lot of people have already been interacting like normal this summer, so school probably doesn't pose any new risks.

Cherokee always seems to start a little earlier than anyone else in metro Atlanta, although in general I agree that GA schools do start way too early.  My county (Forsyth) was scheduled to start this Thursday (the 6th) but has delayed it by a week.

The early start in the South has to do with farming (at least ancestrally), no? (Or at least that's the way it was explained to us in Texas). 

I think that was the original reason for starting in August, as opposed to after Labor Day, as some parts of the country use.  But it used to be late August, and only in fairly recent times has it moved to early August (or even July 31 in Cherokee one year!)  AIUI, there were a couple of reasons for this:

1. They wanted to end the first semester before Christmas, so as not to have exams hanging over students' heads over the holidays.

2. Some districts wanted a more balanced schedule, with a shorter summer vacation and more breaks during the school year.

A lot of older public schools in the Midwest and Northeast don't have air conditioning, so a later start is common in those places to avoid schooling during the hottest weeks of the year.

Air conditioning is a way of life in the Deep South. 

Now it is.

I did all my schooling in South Carolina, but I didn't have any air conditioning at school until eighth grade. The most important piece of school equipment was the big box fan at the front of the classroom. At least it gave kids a reason to be at the front of the class.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 8/3 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

New - Substituting the Δ Change metric as of 7/13 on dates starting from 7/5:
ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

Older Numbers (Hidden in spoiler mode to make the post more compact)

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7/26: <Sunday>

• Cases: 4,371,839 (+56,151 | ΔW Change: ↓11.24% | Σ Increase: ↑1.30%)
• Deaths: 149,849 (+454 | ΔW Change: ↑15.82% | Σ Increase: ↑0.30%)

7/27: <M>

• Cases: 4,433,392 (+61,553 | ΔW Change: ↓4.68% | Σ Increase: ↑1.41%)
• Deaths: 150,444 (+595 | ΔW Change: ↑5.31% | Σ Increase: ↑0.40%)

7/28: <T>

• Cases: 4,498,343 (+64,951 | ΔW Change: ↓3.26% | Σ Increase: ↑1.47%)
• Deaths: 152,320 (+1,876 | ΔW Change: ↑67.65% | Σ Increase: ↑1.25%)

7/29: <W>

• Cases: 4,568,037 (+69,694 | ΔW Change: ↓3.61% | Σ Increase: ↑1.55%)
• Deaths: 153,840 (+1,520 | ΔW Change: ↑23.58% | Σ Increase: ↑1.00%)

7/30: <Þ>

• Cases: 4,634,985 (+66,948 | ΔW Change: ↓3.14% | Σ Increase: ↑1.47%)
• Deaths: 155,285 (+1,445 | ΔW Change: ↑25.65% | Σ Increase: ↑0.94%)

7/31: <F>

• Cases: 4,705,889 (+70,904 | ΔW Change: ↓9.49% | Σ Increase: ↑1.53%)
• Deaths: 156,747 (+1,462 | ΔW Change: ↑26.36% | Σ Increase: ↑0.94%)

8/1: <S>

• Cases: 4,764,318 (+58,429 | ΔW Change: ↓13.25% | Σ Increase: ↑1.24%)
• Deaths: 157,898 (+1,151 | ΔW Change: ↑27.18% | Σ Increase: ↑0.73%)

8/2 (Yesterday): <Sunday>

• Cases: 4,813,647 (+49,329 | ΔW Change: ↓13.25% | Σ Increase: ↑1.04%)
• Deaths: 158,365 (+467 | ΔW Change: ↑12.15% | Σ Increase: ↑0.30%)

8/3 (Today): <M>

• Cases: 4,862,174 (+48,527 | ΔW Change: ↓21.14% | Σ Increase: ↑1.01%)
• Deaths: 158,929 (+564 | ΔW Change: ↓5.21% | Σ Increase: ↑0.36%)

[emailking]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1290488364362170371

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

People are done listening to the "Lockdown! Lockdown! Lockdown!" types.

We wouldn’t have as big of a problem if people listened to them in the first place.

In fairness the bigger problem was state and local governments getting impatient and lifting the lock-downs themselves even in spite of the risks.

You can more accurately blame ordinary people for not abiding by mask-wearing or social distancing protocols though. That was the next fail-safe.

That and the gross irresponsibility of many red state governors (e.g. Noem and DeSantis). The CDC dragging its feet on saying we should wear masks probably didn’t help either. But the mask thing is secondary to people staying at home.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Um, 25% of Americans - including 43% of Republicans - say that the United States is managing the COVID-19 pandemic "much better" or "somewhat better" than other countries.

Low information voters?

Granted, "better than other countries" is a bit unspecific. One could argue that the United States' response is still better than Brazil's. But to say that it is anywhere near being great seems a bit disconnected from the real world.


https://www.npr.org/2020/08/04/898522180/despite-mask-wars-americans-support-aggressive-measures-to-stop-covid-19-poll-fi

[Meclazine for Israel]

People are done listening to the "Lockdown! Lockdown! Lockdown!" types.

We wouldn’t have as big of a problem if people listened to them in the first place.

In fairness the bigger problem was state and local governments getting impatient and lifting the lock-downs themselves even in spite of the risks.

You can more accurately blame ordinary people for not abiding by mask-wearing or social distancing protocols though. That was the next fail-safe.

One of the real apparent learnings from this is you cannot trust people to regulate themself in a crisis.

Australia knocks on the doors of the homes of people isolating after they test positive to COVID-19.

Around 25-30% are not at home. They go back to work, at the gym, go shopping.

So that means that one third of people, once infected are not concerned about others getting infected. Once infected, their psychology flips to 'active infector'. Think about that carefully. Until you are infected, you cannot imagine thinking that way.

Now out of your two points, Government control in this pandemic is the only option. Removal of infected subjects from the population is a very very effective tool to stop community transmission.

That is why Asian cultures such as South Korea and Singapore achieve better results.

Australia is screwed because 1/3rd of our population carry on like this:

Bunnings Karen Does Not Wear A Mask

https://youtu.be/heY0lvOM0Sw

There is no balance here between personal freedom and Government control unless you have intelligent citizens.

[Omega21]

People are done listening to the "Lockdown! Lockdown! Lockdown!" types.

We wouldn’t have as big of a problem if people listened to them in the first place.

In fairness the bigger problem was state and local governments getting impatient and lifting the lock-downs themselves even in spite of the risks.

You can more accurately blame ordinary people for not abiding by mask-wearing or social distancing protocols though. That was the next fail-safe.

One of the real apparent learnings from this is you cannot trust people to regulate themself in a crisis.

Australia knocks on the doors of the homes of people isolating after they test positive to COVID-19.

Around 25-30% are not at home. They go back to work, at the gym, go shopping.

So that means that one third of people, once infected are not concerned about others getting infected. Once infected, their psychology flips to 'active infector'. Think about that carefully. Until you are infected, you cannot imagine thinking that way.

Now out of your two points, Government control in this pandemic is the only option. Removal of infected subjects from the population is a very very effective tool to stop community transmission.

That is why Asian cultures such as South Korea and Singspore achieve better results.

Are there any fines in place if they don't stick to the quarantine while positive?

[Meclazine for Israel]

Good question.

[SnowLabrador]

Anthony Fauci says that we're screwed if, by September, we don't have cases down to 10,000 a day or less.

So that means we're screwed, because there's no reason to think cases won't continue to skyrocket.

[Landslide Lyndon]

That will end well.

https://twitter.com/Freeyourmindkid/status/1290626349426671617

[Del Tachi]

People are done listening to the "Lockdown! Lockdown! Lockdown!" types.

We wouldn’t have as big of a problem if people listened to them in the first place.

Based on what?  Countries that locked down faster and harder than the U.S. (Japan, Spain, Australia, etc.) are themselves now in the midst of resurgent second waves because lockdowns don't work (at least they don't if your metric is limiting future case growth, which many here seem to imply).

Infectious disease is gonna infect, y'all

[Landslide Lyndon]

People are done listening to the "Lockdown! Lockdown! Lockdown!" types.

We wouldn’t have as big of a problem if people listened to them in the first place.

Based on what?  Countries that locked down faster and harder than the U.S. (Japan, Spain, Australia, etc.) are themselves now in the midst of resurgent second waves because lockdowns don't work (at least they don't if your metric is limiting future case growth, which many here seem to imply).

Infectious disease is gonna infect, y'all

That reminds me of a guy who won't change his underpants because the clean ones will eventually get soiled again.

[Holmes]

Wow, who would’ve guessed that countries that have re-opened irresponsibly are surging in cases compared to countries that took this seriously and locked down from the start and stayed in lockdown until the virus was under control.

Preventative measures are gonna prevent, y’all.

[Del Tachi]

Wow, who would’ve guessed that countries that have re-opened irresponsibly are surging in cases compared to countries that took this seriously and locked down from the start and stayed in lockdown until the virus was under control.

Preventative measures are gonna prevent, y’all.

So Spain and Australia have irresponsibly reopened?  They're surging now too

Mainstream takes like this have aged very poorly.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Wow, who would’ve guessed that countries that have re-opened irresponsibly are surging in cases compared to countries that took this seriously and locked down from the start and stayed in lockdown until the virus was under control.

Preventative measures are gonna prevent, y’all.

When do you think places like California, Texas, and Florida should have reopened?  Cases weren't declining in these states even under lockdown.

[pppolitics]

Today @ North Paulding High School

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

According to Worldometers, Spain is reporting almost 6,000 new cases today.  That would work out to about 40,000 cases in the US on a per capita basis, and they still seem to be doubling every week.  

Per capita death totals in Spain are still significantly higher than the US, despite the fact that they essentially stopped reporting deaths in mid-June.

So what exactly did that country do right again?

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

That Paulding High School pic is giving me flashbacks to opening day of classes from my own high school career....except we were all wearing uniforms.

[jimrtex]

One of the real apparent learnings from this is you cannot trust people to regulate themself in a crisis.

Australia knocks on the doors of the homes of people isolating after they test positive to COVID-19.

Around 25-30% are not at home. They go back to work, at the gym, go shopping.

So that means that one third of people, once infected are not concerned about others getting infected. Once infected, their psychology flips to 'active infector'. Think about that carefully. Until you are infected, you cannot imagine thinking that way.

Now out of your two points, Government control in this pandemic is the only option. Removal of infected subjects from the population is a very very effective tool to stop community transmission.

Australia should transport all infected to the Gold Coast, and pay their salary while on their holiday. They can come back when they test negative.

Since everyone would be infected, there would be no harm in going to the gym, shopping, or even working remotely.

[Calthrina950]

Today @ North Paulding High School

Not all of the students are wearing masks. I assume that North Paulding requires masks for teachers and staff, but that they are optional for students. And these are high school students nonetheless, who should be mature enough to be able to wear them throughout the day. If 5-year old Little Johnny can wear one, then all of these 17 or 18-year olds can.