COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[GeorgiaModerate]

Charley Pride, country music's first black superstar, has died of COVID-19 complications at age 86.  I well remember his songs on the radio when I was growing up.  A great talent.

[Roll Roons]

So now the Pfizer vaccine has been approved and will be distributed starting this week, with Moderna likely to follow suit on the 17th. How soon before we see a real effect?

[Calthrina950]

So now the Pfizer vaccine has been approved and will be distributed starting this week, with Moderna likely to follow suit on the 17th. How soon before we see a real effect?

This is good to hear. But I suspect it will be at least 5-6 months before we start to see an impact from the vaccine's dissemination. Obviously, medical workers, high-risk and elderly patients, and essential workers will receive the vaccine first before the remainder of the population.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

So now the Pfizer vaccine has been approved and will be distributed starting this week, with Moderna likely to follow suit on the 17th. How soon before we see a real effect?

It would probably blast a hole in the case numbers about a month from now. I just don't buy it when people say things won't improve until next fall or something.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

So now the Pfizer vaccine has been approved and will be distributed starting this week, with Moderna likely to follow suit on the 17th. How soon before we see a real effect?

This is good to hear. But I suspect it will be at least 5-6 months before we start to see an impact from the vaccine's dissemination. Obviously, medical workers, high-risk and elderly patients, and essential workers will receive the vaccine first before the remainder of the population.

5-6 months??? Maybe 5-6 weeks.  It really depends how we end up prioritizing the elderly.  But just vaccinating the most vulnerable 20% of the population should reduce deaths by at least 90%.

[Roll Roons]

So now the Pfizer vaccine has been approved and will be distributed starting this week, with Moderna likely to follow suit on the 17th. How soon before we see a real effect?

This is good to hear. But I suspect it will be at least 5-6 months before we start to see an impact from the vaccine's dissemination. Obviously, medical workers, high-risk and elderly patients, and essential workers will receive the vaccine first before the remainder of the population.

5-6 months??? Maybe 5-6 weeks.  It really depends how we end up prioritizing the elderly.  But just vaccinating the most vulnerable 20% of the population should reduce deaths by at least 90%.

Pretty sure they're the top priority, along with healthcare workers.

[jamestroll]

I have given up.

I will just wait for herd immunity through large number of cases and vaccinations. I now encourage everyone to go out and not wear a mask so the vaccine trails can be expedited.

The major vaccine trials are completed. Pfizer vaccine just got approved. Now it has to be mass manufactured be distributed, and you should wear a mask so you don't inadvertently infect others in the meantime who are waiting for the vaccine.

ill wear a mask of course.

I am just frustrated  and have conceded to the virus at this point

At this point I understand that.
While I don’t agree, I have sometimes pondered whether I should even care about if other people get sick. I only care now because it increases my risk of exposure.

I made a point earlier that last spring and summer we had resources to actually control and tame the virus but we wasted it. Now we are at a point of no return and will just have to deal with it.

The service economy dominance of the United States has made this an impossible fight.

[Fargobison]

Vaccinating the people in nursing homes alone will have a major effect. That combined with protecting health care workers will help with the hospital capacity crunch a ton.

I also wonder at what level do things start to drop on their own. Seems like the Dakotas are hitting some kind of natural slowdown where the virus is having a harder time spreading. It is still lingering but cases and hospitilzations have really fallen off in ND.

Of course both states have some advantages in their lack of density.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

The Deadliest Days In American History

Here are some of the deadliest days in American history:

    1. Galveston Hurricane – 8,000
    2. Battle of Antietam – 3,675
    3. Battle of Gettysburg – 3,155
    4. September 11 – 2,977
    5. Last Thursday – 2,879
    6. Last Wednesday – 2,804
    7. Last Friday – 2,607
    8. Last Tuesday – 2,597
    9. Pearl Harbor – 2,403

[Person Man]

The Deadliest Days In American History

Here are some of the deadliest days in American history:

    1. Galveston Hurricane – 8,000
    2. Battle of Antietam – 3,675
    3. Battle of Gettysburg – 3,155
    4. September 11 – 2,977
    5. Last Thursday – 2,879
    6. Last Wednesday – 2,804
    7. Last Friday – 2,607
    8. Last Tuesday – 2,597
    9. Pearl Harbor – 2,403

No. ThAts AbOrShUn!

[emailking]

And the list is out of date now. 🥺

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 12/12 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

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11/29: <Sunday>

• Cases: 13,750,404 (+140,047 | ΔW Change: ↑1.49% | Σ Increase: ↑1.03%)
• Deaths: 273,072 (+818 | ΔW Change: ↓9.71% | Σ Increase: ↑0.30%)

11/30: <M>

• Cases: 13,919,870 (+169,466 | ΔW Change: ↓10.10% | Σ Increase: ↑1.23%)
• Deaths: 274,332 (+1,260 | ΔW Change: ↑27.14% | Σ Increase: ↑0.46%)

12/1: <T>

• Cases: 14,108,490 (+188,620 | ΔW Change: ↑6.07% | Σ Increase: ↑1.36%)
• Deaths: 276,976 (+2,644 | ΔW Change: ↑19.96% | Σ Increase: ↑0.96%)

12/2: <W>

• Cases: 14,313,941 (+205,451 | ΔW Change: ↑12.30% | Σ Increase: ↑1.46%)
• Deaths: 279,865 (+2,889 | ΔW Change: ↑24.10% | Σ Increase: ↑1.04%)

12/3: <Þ-Last Þ Holiday>

• Cases: 14,535,196 (+221,255 | ΔW Change: ↑99.84% | Σ Increase: ↑1.55%)
• Deaths: 282,829 (+2,964 | ΔW Change: ↑121.83% | Σ Increase: ↑1.06%)

12/4: <F>

• Cases: 14,772,353 (+237,157 | ΔW Change: ↑15.36% | Σ Increase: ↑1.63%)
• Deaths: 285,550 (+2,721 | ΔW Change: ↑84.98% | Σ Increase: ↑0.96%)

12/5: <S>

• Cases: 14,983,425 (+211,072 | ΔW Change: ↑35.21% | Σ Increase: ↑1.43%)
• Deaths: 287,825 (+2,275 | ΔW Change: ↑85.26% | Σ Increase: ↑0.80%)

12/6: <Sunday>

• Cases: 15,159,259 (+175,834 | ΔW Change: ↑25.55% | Σ Increase: ↑1.17%)
• Deaths: 288,906 (+1,081 | ΔW Change: ↑32.15% | Σ Increase: ↑0.38%)

12/7: <M>

• Cases: 15,369,046 (+209,787 | ΔW Change: ↑23.79% | Σ Increase: ↑1.38%)
• Deaths: 290,443 (+1,537 | ΔW Change: ↑21.98% | Σ Increase: ↑0.53%)

12/8: <T>

• Cases: 15,591,709 (+222,663 | ΔW Change: ↑18.05% | Σ Increase: ↑1.45%)
• Deaths: 293,398 (+2,955 | ΔW Change: ↑11.76% | Σ Increase: ↑1.02%)

12/9: <W>

• Cases: 15,820,042 (+228,333 | ΔW Change: ↑11.14% | Σ Increase: ↑1.46%)
• Deaths: 296,698 (+3,300 | ΔW Change: ↑14.23% | Σ Increase: ↑1.12%)

12/10: <Þ>

• Cases: 16,039,393 (+219,351 | ΔW Change: ↓0.86% | Σ Increase: ↑1.39%)
• Deaths: 299,692 (+2,994 | ΔW Change: ↑1.01% | Σ Increase: ↑1.01%)

12/11 (Yesterday): <F>

• Cases: 16,295,458 (+256,065 | ΔW Change: ↑7.97% | Σ Increase: ↑1.60%)
• Deaths: 302,750 (+3,058 | ΔW Change: ↑12.39% | Σ Increase: ↑1.02%)

12/12 (Today): <S>

• Cases: 16,549,366 (+253,908 | ΔW Change: ↑20.29% | Σ Increase: ↑1.56%)
• Deaths: 305,082 (+2,332 | ΔW Change: ↑2.51% | Σ Increase: ↑0.77%)

[jamestroll]

Vaccinating the people in nursing homes alone will have a major effect. That combined with protecting health care workers will help with the hospital capacity crunch a ton.

I also wonder at what level do things start to drop on their own. Seems like the Dakotas are hitting some kind of natural slowdown where the virus is having a harder time spreading. It is still lingering but cases and hospitilzations have really fallen off in ND.

Of course both states have some advantages in their lack of density.

shhhhh few people want to acknowledge this.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Vaccinating the people in nursing homes alone will have a major effect. That combined with protecting health care workers will help with the hospital capacity crunch a ton.

I also wonder at what level do things start to drop on their own. Seems like the Dakotas are hitting some kind of natural slowdown where the virus is having a harder time spreading. It is still lingering but cases and hospitilzations have really fallen off in ND.

Of course both states have some advantages in their lack of density.

It looks like almost all the Plains and northern Rockies are reaching a natural slowdown now. I think a lot of other states are too, but the case counts now aren't comparable to those before mid-October because they use more sensitive tests now.

What states haven't had big surges so far? Maybe Oregon or northern New England, or maybe even Kentucky, but that's about it.

[Holmes]

Vaccinating the people in nursing homes alone will have a major effect. That combined with protecting health care workers will help with the hospital capacity crunch a ton.

I also wonder at what level do things start to drop on their own. Seems like the Dakotas are hitting some kind of natural slowdown where the virus is having a harder time spreading. It is still lingering but cases and hospitilzations have really fallen off in ND.

Of course both states have some advantages in their lack of density.

shhhhh few people want to acknowledge this.

Who’s not acknowledging what?

Obviously vaccinating the most vulnerable population will have a drastic effect.

Over the summer people were gloating, saying that the virus is naturally dying down and it’s okay to go out and socialize, despite the fact that there were small spikes after every holiday (Memorial Day, July 4, Labor Day). And now... here were are again. It’s as bad as it was in March/April and less people give a sh**t.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Vaccinating the people in nursing homes alone will have a major effect. That combined with protecting health care workers will help with the hospital capacity crunch a ton.

I also wonder at what level do things start to drop on their own. Seems like the Dakotas are hitting some kind of natural slowdown where the virus is having a harder time spreading. It is still lingering but cases and hospitilzations have really fallen off in ND.

Of course both states have some advantages in their lack of density.

shhhhh few people want to acknowledge this.

Who’s not acknowledging what?

Obviously vaccinating the most vulnerable population will have a drastic effect.

Earlier up in this same page of the thread you have people claiming it will take 5-6 months to see any results from the vaccine.

[It’s so Joever]

It’s probably somewhere in the middle. One month is incredibly optimistic but not impossible, but I think it will be in February/March we see real vaccine effects in case numbers. I hope I am wrong and bandit is right, I would love more vaccines to be distributed as early as possible.

[Hnv1]

I assume that by the end of the pandemic death rate will be anywhere between 400-500k, almost completely of voting eligible people and especially old voters. Will deaths have any electoral significance?

[emailking]

I can buy that maybe deaths will go down dramatically within weeks. But when will everything be open again and without masks required anywhere? That may take a while because I assume it will wait until a much larger fraction of the population is vaccinated.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I can buy that maybe deaths will go down dramatically within weeks. But when will everything be open again and without masks required anywhere? That may take a while because I assume it will wait until a much larger fraction of the population is vaccinated.

Exactly.  The reductions in cases and in deaths are two different (but related) functions regarding availability of the vaccine, how many people get vaccinated and when, which groups are vaccinated earliest, all against the general backdrop of case spread, mitigation measures, and weather.  I expect both to show declining curves, with the death rate curve declining much more rapidly than the overall case rate.  So there will be good news relatively soon, but life won't return to near-normal for quite a while.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I don’t really see why life can’t return to close-to-normal once the majority of the vulnerable population has been vaccinated by February.  I mean, wearing masks in confined spaces is fine, but certainly nothing should be closed.  The virus is not enough of a threat to young and healthy people alone to merit that sort of disruption to our daily lives.

[Horus]

I don’t really see why life can’t return to close-to-normal once the majority of the vulnerable population has been vaccinated by February.  I mean, wearing masks im confined spaces is fine, but certainly nothing should be closed.  The virus is not enough of a threat to young and healthy people alone to merit that sort of disruption to our daily lives.

Agreed. While the next few weeks are gonna be bad, we should be in the clear by mid-March at the latest, almost exactly a year from when we first locked down.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

I don’t really see why life can’t return to close-to-normal once the majority of the vulnerable population has been vaccinated by February.  I mean, wearing masks im confined spaces is fine, but certainly nothing should be closed.  The virus is not enough of a threat to young and healthy people alone to merit that sort of disruption to our daily lives.

COVID-19 (coronavirus): Long-term effects

COVID-19 symptoms can sometimes persist for months. The virus can damage the lungs, heart and brain, which increases the risk of long-term health problems.

Older people and people with many serious medical conditions are the most likely to experience lingering COVID-19 symptoms, but even young, otherwise healthy people can feel unwell for weeks to months after infection

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I don’t really see why life can’t return to close-to-normal once the majority of the vulnerable population has been vaccinated by February.  I mean, wearing masks im confined spaces is fine, but certainly nothing should be closed.  The virus is not enough of a threat to young and healthy people alone to merit that sort of disruption to our daily lives.

COVID-19 (coronavirus): Long-term effects

COVID-19 symptoms can sometimes persist for months. The virus can damage the lungs, heart and brain, which increases the risk of long-term health problems.

Older people and people with many serious medical conditions are the most likely to experience lingering COVID-19 symptoms, but even young, otherwise healthy people can feel unwell for weeks to months after infection

There’s no doubt that the virus -can- cause long-term damage tp health in young people.

But the relevant question is whether the likelihood and seriousness of that damage is so debilitating to our health care system and society as a whole to merit an unprecedented disruption in our daily lives, a disruption which has led to long term economic devastation for a millions and likely permanent damage to the education of an entire generation of children.

I have seen no evidence that the answer to this question should be yes.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1337858218631065600