COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[emailking]

That was the number then very early on when we had no idea what this was. A number of people had died, but virtually no one had recovered. Fortunately as we got a bigger picture the IFR turned out to be much lower.

Yeah we did. If you look back in that thread, there were a number of people claiming the death rate was just a few %, before your post.

[It’s so Joever]

413,000 new cases reported yesterday.

This thing has gone Full Beet.

Apologies to Beet for underestimating his now clearly accurate early-stage pandemic hyperbolae.

I will never doubt your pre-pandemic estimates and over-exaggerated mathematical projections again.

He said the death rate was approaching 100% at one point.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=355597.msg7146506#msg7146506

He was right in some ways but not others.

That was the number then very early on when we had no idea what this was. A number of people had died, but virtually no one had recovered. Fortunately as we got a bigger picture the IFR turned out to be much lower.

We were fortune with this one where the IFR is under 1% and it primarily affects the elderly. There are some zoonotic viruses with IFR of over 20%. In those cases, I would expect much greater panic and a stronger social reaction. At a high enough IFR, it won't actually kill that many people because society will be unified to suppress the epidemic entirely. At a low enough IFR, it becomes just the flu, or similar to the 2009 swine flu outbreak. However, between those two extremes there is an IFR that is high enough to kill many, but not high enough to convince people they need to focus on killing the pandemic in a single handed manner. This middle IFR will actually result in the most deaths. COVID-19 unfortunately it seems has found the "sweet spot." If there is no vaccine or treatment we could see this going on for several years.

Plenty of people warned you your numbers were inflated due to recovery lag, and I distinctly remember saying a 2-3% rate in early February and a 1% rate within a few weeks later.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/PostScottWilson/status/1317613288709005314?s=20

[Pericles]

The evidence from the UK is that the primary outbreaks are in care homes, workplaces and schools.

Is there a difference between the types of schools? Maybe high schools and universities/college could be closed while keeping lower years open, as the lower years seem to need physical learning more and they might be less of a risk both for suffering complications from Covid and for spreading it.

[It’s so Joever]

The evidence from the UK is that the primary outbreaks are in care homes, workplaces and schools.

Is there a difference between the types of schools? Maybe high schools and universities/college could be closed while keeping lower years open, as the lower years seem to need physical learning more and they might be less of a risk both for suffering complications from Covid and for spreading it.

Stop making sense, we don’t accept that here in America.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 10/17 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

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10/4: <Sunday>

• Cases: 7,636,912 (+36,066 | ΔW Change: ↑8.93% | Σ Increase: ↑0.47%)
• Deaths: 214,611 (+334 | ΔW Change: ↑21.01% | Σ Increase: ↑0.16%)

10/5: <M>

• Cases: 7,679,644 (+42,732 | ΔW Change: ↑4.37% | Σ Increase: ↑0.56%)
• Deaths: 215,032 (+421 | ΔW Change: ↑18.59% | Σ Increase: ↑0.20%)

10/6: <T>

• Cases: 7,722,746 (+43,102 | ΔW Change: ↓3.22% | Σ Increase: ↑0.56%)
• Deaths: 215,822 (+790 | ΔW Change: ↓0.37% | Σ Increase: ↑0.20%)

10/7: <W>

• Cases: 7,776,224 (+53,478 | ΔW Change: ↑30.00% | Σ Increase: ↑0.69%)
• Deaths: 216,784 (+962 | ΔW Change: ↑0.73% | Σ Increase: ↑0.45%)

10/8: <Þ>

• Cases: 7,833,599 (+57,375 | ΔW Change: ↑21.07% | Σ Increase: ↑0.74%)
• Deaths: 217,738 (+954 | ΔW Change: ↑3.70% | Σ Increase: ↑0.44%)

10/9: <F>

• Cases: 7,894,478 (+60,879 | ΔW Change: ↑11.39% | Σ Increase: ↑0.78%)
• Deaths: 218,648 (+910 | ΔW Change: ↑5.32% | Σ Increase: ↑0.42%)

10/10: <S>

• Cases: 7,945,505 (+51,027 | ΔW Change: ↓0.96% | Σ Increase: ↑0.65%)
• Deaths: 219,282 (+634 | ΔW Change: ↓15.80% | Σ Increase: ↑0.29%)

10/11: <Sunday>

• Cases: 7,991,069 (+45,564 | ΔW Change: ↑26.34% | Σ Increase: ↑0.57%)
• Deaths: 219,695 (+413 | ΔW Change: ↑23.65% | Σ Increase: ↑0.19%)

10/12: <M>

• Cases: 8,037,789 (+46,720 | ΔW Change: ↑9.33% | Σ Increase: ↑0.58%)
• Deaths: 220,011 (+316 | ΔW Change: ↓24.94% | Σ Increase: ↑0.14%)

10/13: <T>

• Cases: 8,090,080 (+52,291 | ΔW Change: ↓2.22% | Σ Increase: ↑0.65%)
• Deaths: 220,841 (+830 | ΔW Change: ↓13.72% | Σ Increase: ↑0.38%)

10/14: <W>

• Cases: 8,150,043 (+59,963 | ΔW Change: ↑12.13% | Σ Increase: ↑0.74%)
• Deaths: 221,843 (+1,002 | ΔW Change: ↑4.16% | Σ Increase: ↑0.45%)

10/15: <Þ>

• Cases: 8,216,315 (+66,272 | ΔW Change: ↑15.51% | Σ Increase: ↑0.81%)
• Deaths: 222,717 (+874 | ΔW Change: ↓8.39% | Σ Increase: ↑0.39%)

10/16 (Yesterday): <F>

• Cases: 8,286,824 (+70,509 | ΔW Change: ↑15.82% | Σ Increase: ↑0.86%)
• Deaths: 223,625 (+908 | ΔW Change: ↓0.22% | Σ Increase: ↑0.41%)

10/17 (Today): <S>

• Cases: 8,342,665 (+55,841 | ΔW Change: ↑9.43% | Σ Increase: ↑0.67%)
• Deaths: 224,282 (+657 | ΔW Change: ↑3.63% | Σ Increase: ↑0.29%)

[emailking]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1317822838519128068

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1317822838519128068

Still on this bull****

[Pericles]

There shouldn't be 55,000 actual daily infections in the community, Trump is such an idiot.

[SnowLabrador]

There shouldn't be 55,000 actual daily infections in the community, Trump is such an idiot.

He's not an idiot, he knows exactly what he's doing. He's a genocidal maniac.

[It’s so Joever]

There shouldn't be 55,000 actual daily infections in the community, Trump is such an idiot.

He's not an idiot, he knows exactly what he's doing. He's a genocidal maniac.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1317822838519128068

That's a lot of words to say "ignore it and pretend its gone away".

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 10/18 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

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10/11: <Sunday>

• Cases: 7,991,069 (+45,564 | ΔW Change: ↑26.34% | Σ Increase: ↑0.57%)
• Deaths: 219,695 (+413 | ΔW Change: ↑23.65% | Σ Increase: ↑0.19%)

10/12: <M>

• Cases: 8,037,789 (+46,720 | ΔW Change: ↑9.33% | Σ Increase: ↑0.58%)
• Deaths: 220,011 (+316 | ΔW Change: ↓24.94% | Σ Increase: ↑0.14%)

10/13: <T>

• Cases: 8,090,080 (+52,291 | ΔW Change: ↓2.22% | Σ Increase: ↑0.65%)
• Deaths: 220,841 (+830 | ΔW Change: ↓13.72% | Σ Increase: ↑0.38%)

10/14: <W>

• Cases: 8,150,043 (+59,963 | ΔW Change: ↑12.13% | Σ Increase: ↑0.74%)
• Deaths: 221,843 (+1,002 | ΔW Change: ↑4.16% | Σ Increase: ↑0.45%)

10/15: <Þ>

• Cases: 8,216,315 (+66,272 | ΔW Change: ↑15.51% | Σ Increase: ↑0.81%)
• Deaths: 222,717 (+874 | ΔW Change: ↓8.39% | Σ Increase: ↑0.39%)

10/16: <F>

• Cases: 8,286,824 (+70,509 | ΔW Change: ↑15.82% | Σ Increase: ↑0.86%)
• Deaths: 223,625 (+908 | ΔW Change: ↓0.22% | Σ Increase: ↑0.41%)

10/17 (Yesterday): <S>

• Cases: 8,342,665 (+55,841 | ΔW Change: ↑9.43% | Σ Increase: ↑0.67%)
• Deaths: 224,282 (+657 | ΔW Change: ↑3.63% | Σ Increase: ↑0.29%)

10/18 (Today): <Sunday>

• Cases: 8,387,790 (+45,125 | ΔW Change: ↓0.96% | Σ Increase: ↑0.54%)
• Deaths: 224,730 (+448 | ΔW Change: ↑8.47% | Σ Increase: ↑0.20%)

[Bandit3 the Worker]

It's fairly clear that the virus is going completely out of control. Something has to be done soon.

But what? Everything we've done thus far has failed.

This is correct, folks, we have tried everything. Except maybe a "stay outside" order, which won't go over too well as cold weather comes.

So all we can do is stop worrying about it. People are not equipped to panic for months on end. Around here, I already see maskless customers and employees of indoor stores. Nobody worries about social distancing anymore, and families have big gatherings. And this is near a major city, not some rural area. People are done with fear and panic.

Among the few exceptions is that every time someone announces some event on Facebook, it always says something like, "SOCIAL DISTANCING WILL BE PRACTICED." Yeah. Sure.

[emailking]

It's fairly clear that the virus is going completely out of control. Something has to be done soon.

But what? Everything we've done thus far has failed.

This is correct, folks, we have tried everything. Except maybe a "stay outside" order, which won't go over too well as cold weather comes.

So all we can do is stop worrying about it. People are not equipped to panic for months on end. Around here, I already see maskless customers and employees of indoor stores. Nobody worries about social distancing anymore, and families have big gatherings. And this is near a major city, not some rural area. People are done with fear and panic.

Among the few exceptions is that every time someone announces some event on Facebook, it always says something like, "SOCIAL DISTANCING WILL BE PRACTICED." Yeah. Sure.

Not everyone is as done with it as you and your area are. My family isn't doing a Thanksgiving dinner because of the virus. And I still haven't seen someone in a grocery store without a mask since April, not even 1.

[Calthrina950]

It's fairly clear that the virus is going completely out of control. Something has to be done soon.

But what? Everything we've done thus far has failed.

This is correct, folks, we have tried everything. Except maybe a "stay outside" order, which won't go over too well as cold weather comes.

So all we can do is stop worrying about it. People are not equipped to panic for months on end. Around here, I already see maskless customers and employees of indoor stores. Nobody worries about social distancing anymore, and families have big gatherings. And this is near a major city, not some rural area. People are done with fear and panic.

Among the few exceptions is that every time someone announces some event on Facebook, it always says something like, "SOCIAL DISTANCING WILL BE PRACTICED." Yeah. Sure.

Not everyone is as done with it as you and your area are. My family isn't doing a Thanksgiving dinner because of the virus. And I still haven't seen someone in a grocery store without a mask since April, not even 1.

It seems like the level of mask-adherence depends upon the locality one lives in. Here in Colorado, Polis extended his mask mandate by another month about a week ago. That means it will have been in force for four months by the time its up for renewal again in mid-November (and make no mistake, it will be renewed again). However, the number of maskless customers at my workplace and elsewhere has solidified itself at around 25% or so, higher than what it was immediately after the mandate was issued, but still lower than before July.

[emailking]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1318252740431155200

[Silent Hunter]

It's best not to worry about it, but you should still take reasonable precautions to stop the spread.

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/NYGovCuomo/status/1318294439685705736

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/NYGovCuomo/status/1318294439685705736

Trump himself is a POS.

[Pericles]

Trump is right that Cuomo botched the first wave, but Cuomo is right that he's done better than almost any other state since then at suppressing Covid. So probably I'd be annoyed at Cuomo but give him the benefit of the doubt.

[Meclazine for Israel]

......we have tried everything. Except maybe a "stay outside" order......

Guaranteed in 3 years time, when we look back, that is probably one of the best things you can do. UV light, Vitamin D, fresh air.

One of the issues that has come out of this viral pandemic is we learnt we are led blind by automaton politicians who have no lateral thinking ideas, except maybe Sweden, which would lead to faster solutions in dealing with this virus.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 10/19 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

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10/11: <Sunday>

• Cases: 7,991,069 (+45,564 | ΔW Change: ↑26.34% | Σ Increase: ↑0.57%)
• Deaths: 219,695 (+413 | ΔW Change: ↑23.65% | Σ Increase: ↑0.19%)

10/12: <M>

• Cases: 8,037,789 (+46,720 | ΔW Change: ↑9.33% | Σ Increase: ↑0.58%)
• Deaths: 220,011 (+316 | ΔW Change: ↓24.94% | Σ Increase: ↑0.14%)

10/13: <T>

• Cases: 8,090,080 (+52,291 | ΔW Change: ↓2.22% | Σ Increase: ↑0.65%)
• Deaths: 220,841 (+830 | ΔW Change: ↓13.72% | Σ Increase: ↑0.38%)

10/14: <W>

• Cases: 8,150,043 (+59,963 | ΔW Change: ↑12.13% | Σ Increase: ↑0.74%)
• Deaths: 221,843 (+1,002 | ΔW Change: ↑4.16% | Σ Increase: ↑0.45%)

10/15: <Þ>

• Cases: 8,216,315 (+66,272 | ΔW Change: ↑15.51% | Σ Increase: ↑0.81%)
• Deaths: 222,717 (+874 | ΔW Change: ↓8.39% | Σ Increase: ↑0.39%)

10/16: <F>

• Cases: 8,286,824 (+70,509 | ΔW Change: ↑15.82% | Σ Increase: ↑0.86%)
• Deaths: 223,625 (+908 | ΔW Change: ↓0.22% | Σ Increase: ↑0.41%)

10/17: <S>

• Cases: 8,342,665 (+55,841 | ΔW Change: ↑9.43% | Σ Increase: ↑0.67%)
• Deaths: 224,282 (+657 | ΔW Change: ↑3.63% | Σ Increase: ↑0.29%)

10/18 (Yesterday): <Sunday>

• Cases: 8,387,790 (+45,125 | ΔW Change: ↓0.96% | Σ Increase: ↑0.54%)
• Deaths: 224,730 (+448 | ΔW Change: ↑8.47% | Σ Increase: ↑0.20%)

10/19 (Today): <M>

• Cases: 8,456,653 (+68,863 | ΔW Change: ↑47.40% | Σ Increase: ↑0.82%)
• Deaths: 225,222 (+492 | ΔW Change: ↑55.70% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 10/19 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

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10/11: <Sunday>

• Cases: 7,991,069 (+45,564 | ΔW Change: ↑26.34% | Σ Increase: ↑0.57%)
• Deaths: 219,695 (+413 | ΔW Change: ↑23.65% | Σ Increase: ↑0.19%)

10/12: <M>

• Cases: 8,037,789 (+46,720 | ΔW Change: ↑9.33% | Σ Increase: ↑0.58%)
• Deaths: 220,011 (+316 | ΔW Change: ↓24.94% | Σ Increase: ↑0.14%)

10/13: <T>

• Cases: 8,090,080 (+52,291 | ΔW Change: ↓2.22% | Σ Increase: ↑0.65%)
• Deaths: 220,841 (+830 | ΔW Change: ↓13.72% | Σ Increase: ↑0.38%)

10/14: <W>

• Cases: 8,150,043 (+59,963 | ΔW Change: ↑12.13% | Σ Increase: ↑0.74%)
• Deaths: 221,843 (+1,002 | ΔW Change: ↑4.16% | Σ Increase: ↑0.45%)

10/15: <Þ>

• Cases: 8,216,315 (+66,272 | ΔW Change: ↑15.51% | Σ Increase: ↑0.81%)
• Deaths: 222,717 (+874 | ΔW Change: ↓8.39% | Σ Increase: ↑0.39%)

10/16: <F>

• Cases: 8,286,824 (+70,509 | ΔW Change: ↑15.82% | Σ Increase: ↑0.86%)
• Deaths: 223,625 (+908 | ΔW Change: ↓0.22% | Σ Increase: ↑0.41%)

10/17: <S>

• Cases: 8,342,665 (+55,841 | ΔW Change: ↑9.43% | Σ Increase: ↑0.67%)
• Deaths: 224,282 (+657 | ΔW Change: ↑3.63% | Σ Increase: ↑0.29%)

10/18 (Yesterday): <Sunday>

• Cases: 8,387,790 (+45,125 | ΔW Change: ↓0.96% | Σ Increase: ↑0.54%)
• Deaths: 224,730 (+448 | ΔW Change: ↑8.47% | Σ Increase: ↑0.20%)

10/19 (Today): <M>

• Cases: 8,456,653 (+68,863 | ΔW Change: ↑47.40% | Σ Increase: ↑0.82%)
• Deaths: 225,222 (+492 | ΔW Change: ↑55.70% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)

I'm pretty sure Pennsylvania reported two days worth of totals today. Do we know of any other states that had something like that happen? Otherwise a 50% week-over-week change is horrifyingly bad.

[cg41386]

......we have tried everything. Except maybe a "stay outside" order......

Guaranteed in 3 years time, when we look back, that is probably one of the best things you can do. UV light, Vitamin D, fresh air.

One of the issues that has come out of this viral pandemic is we learnt we are led blind by automaton politicians who have no lateral thinking ideas, except maybe Sweden, which would lead to faster solutions in dealing with this virus.

Huh?