COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron
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Author Topic: COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron  (Read 526327 times)
GP270watch
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« Reply #1250 on: October 31, 2020, 02:27:32 PM »

 Mitch has already said no stimulus until 2021 and it barely got headlines. It's going to be a very bad few months no matter who wins the election.
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Fmr. Gov. NickG
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« Reply #1251 on: October 31, 2020, 04:39:13 PM »

Given the lack of leadership at the national level and the apathy of so much of the public, why is the US still doing so much better at controlling the spread than most major European countries over the past few weeks?
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It’s so Joever
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« Reply #1252 on: October 31, 2020, 05:45:09 PM »

Given the lack of leadership at the national level and the apathy of so much of the public, why is the US still doing so much better at controlling the spread than most major European countries over the past few weeks?
I mean...I would argue we are still in the very early phase of this new wave, Europe is ahead of us in this trajectory right now. Where they are now, we probably will be in a few weeks.

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President Johnson
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« Reply #1253 on: October 31, 2020, 05:51:49 PM »

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Meclazine for Israel
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« Reply #1254 on: October 31, 2020, 06:48:11 PM »
« Edited: October 31, 2020, 10:59:12 PM by Meclazine »

The rate of infection is certainly on the upswing:



I made this plot at https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data

The great thing is you can build your own graphs to demonstrate your argument or to illustrate a point.

The death rate as a function of cases has decreased from 10% to 1.3% since April 30. (8 times smaller)

But the testing rate has increased by a factor of 4. If you believe the case numbers in April 30 were under-represented due to low testing numbers, that means the death rate itself has effectively halved, most likely due to better medical treatment for sick patients.

If those curves go nuts over XMAS in the northern hemisphere, we might need to get a prediction from BEET for 2021. There is only Herd Immunity or Human Extinction event left.
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politicallefty
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« Reply #1255 on: November 01, 2020, 12:16:52 AM »

Governors around the country are about to face the worst of this pandemic (save Governor Cuomo). They need to start planning and acting quickly to forestall mass death. Despite nasty numbers for most of the year, most of the country hasn't seen what NYC has. The infection rate is rising far too rapidly and the healthcare system isn't going to be able to keep up. It's going to inevitably start collapsing. That's what really scared me when this started early this year. So far, we've mostly been able to prevent that. I'm not sure we're going to be able to prevent that going forward. It's when the healthcare system starts collapsing that the death rate will start to jump considerably. Even if we couldn't stop the spread of infection at this point in time as we enter the colder months, the failure to prepare for this moment is so absolutely inexcusable.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #1256 on: November 01, 2020, 12:31:07 AM »

Governors around the country are about to face the worst of this pandemic (save Governor Cuomo). They need to start planning and acting quickly to forestall mass death. Despite nasty numbers for most of the year, most of the country hasn't seen what NYC has. The infection rate is rising far too rapidly and the healthcare system isn't going to be able to keep up. It's going to inevitably start collapsing. That's what really scared me when this started early this year. So far, we've mostly been able to prevent that. I'm not sure we're going to be able to prevent that going forward. It's when the healthcare system starts collapsing that the death rate will start to jump considerably. Even if we couldn't stop the spread of infection at this point in time as we enter the colder months, the failure to prepare for this moment is so absolutely inexcusable.

Do you think it's likely that we hit the death figures from the Spanish Flu at this rate?
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #1257 on: November 01, 2020, 12:35:03 AM »

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 10/31 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.
  • IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.
  • IE: What's the overall change in the total?

Older Numbers (Hidden in spoiler mode to make the post more compact)


10/18: <Sunday>
  • Cases: 8,387,790 (+45,125 | ΔW Change: ↓0.96% | Σ Increase: ↑0.54%)
  • Deaths: 224,730 (+448 | ΔW Change: ↑8.47% | Σ Increase: ↑0.20%)

10/19: <M>
  • Cases: 8,456,653 (+68,863 | ΔW Change: ↑47.40% | Σ Increase: ↑0.82%)
  • Deaths: 225,222 (+492 | ΔW Change: ↑55.70% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)

10/20: <T>
  • Cases: 8,519,665 (+63,012 | ΔW Change: ↑17.01% | Σ Increase: ↑0.75%)
  • Deaths: 226,138 (+916 | ΔW Change: ↑10.36% | Σ Increase: ↑0.41%)

10/21: <W>
  • Cases: 8,584,819 (+65,154 | ΔW Change: ↑8.66% | Σ Increase: ↑0.76%)
  • Deaths: 227,409 (+1,271 | ΔW Change: ↑26.85% | Σ Increase: ↑0.56%)

10/22: <Þ>
  • Cases: 8,661,651 (+76,832 | ΔW Change: ↑15.93% | Σ Increase: ↑0.89%)
  • Deaths: 228,381 (+972 | ΔW Change: ↑11.21% | Σ Increase: ↑0.43%)

10/23: <F>
  • Cases: 8,746,953 (+85,302 | ΔW Change: ↑20.98% | Σ Increase: ↑0.98%)
  • Deaths: 229,284 (+903 | ΔW Change: ↓0.55% | Σ Increase: ↑0.40%)

10/24: <S>
  • Cases: 8,827,932 (+80,979 | ΔW Change: ↑45.02% | Σ Increase: ↑0.93%)
  • Deaths: 230,068 (+784 | ΔW Change: ↑19.33% | Σ Increase: ↑0.34%)

10/25: <Sunday>
  • Cases: 8,889,179 (+61,247 | ΔW Change: ↑35.73% | Σ Increase: ↑0.69%)
  • Deaths: 230,510 (+442 | ΔW Change: ↓1.34% | Σ Increase: ↑0.19%)

10/26: <M>
  • Cases: 8,962,783 (+73,604 | ΔW Change: ↑6.88% | Σ Increase: ↑0.83%)
  • Deaths: 231,045 (+535 | ΔW Change: ↑8.74% | Σ Increase: ↑0.23%)

10/27: <T>
  • Cases: 9,037,951 (+75,168 | ΔW Change: ↑19.29% | Σ Increase: ↑0.84%)
  • Deaths: 232,085 (+1,040 | ΔW Change: ↑13.54% | Σ Increase: ↑0.45%)

10/28: <W>
  • Cases: 9,121,800 (+83,849 | ΔW Change: ↑28.69% | Σ Increase: ↑0.93%)
  • Deaths: 233,137 (+1,052 | ΔW Change: ↓17.23% | Σ Increase: ↑0.45%)

10/29: <Þ>
  • Cases: 9,212,767 (+90,967 | ΔW Change: ↑18.40% | Σ Increase: ↑1.00%)
  • Deaths: 234,177 (+1,040 | ΔW Change: ↑7.00% | Σ Increase: ↑0.45%)

10/30 (Yesterday): <F>
  • Cases: 9,316,297 (+103,530 | ΔW Change: ↑21.37% | Σ Increase: ↑1.12%)
  • Deaths: 235,159 (+982 | ΔW Change: ↑8.75% | Σ Increase: ↑0.42%)

10/31 (Today): <S>
  • Cases: 9,402,590 (+86,293 | ΔW Change: ↑6.56% | Σ Increase: ↑0.93%)
  • Deaths: 236,072 (+913 | ΔW Change: ↑16.45% | Σ Increase: ↑0.39%)
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politicallefty
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« Reply #1258 on: November 01, 2020, 01:35:55 AM »

Do you think it's likely that we hit the death figures from the Spanish Flu at this rate?

In the US (assuming the estimated death toll of 675k)? When all is said and done, I do expect that number to be surpassed. A major difference between influenza viruses and coronaviruses is that the former tend to mutate far more often. In that pandemic, it had mutated into a more virulent strain in the second wave. It's hard to see waves with COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2 because we've never gone below a certain point. That doesn't say anything as to what might have changed in terms of virulence if the virus had subsided for the summer.

I will reiterate my point from before to say that what really scares me is a high infection rate all at once that overwhelms the healthcare system. We are not ready for anything like that. It's what scared me at the start of the pandemic in terms of lack of ventilators. That's what can and will drive up the death toll. When managed, we do seem to have some tools in our arsenal against the virus in the medical setting. There are no cures and there isn't a vaccine, but there are treatments/drugs that have improved outcomes and increased the survival rate. Those will become mostly ineffective if they become mostly inaccessible to those infected. This all goes back to the goal of flattening the curve. The lower/broader the curve, the better the healthcare system can respond in time and treat those infected. Higher peaks invariably mean a higher death rate.
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GP270watch
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« Reply #1259 on: November 01, 2020, 12:00:03 PM »

 Most of The United States hasn't even faced Covid in the winter season. South America has had their winter, much of Europe is way north of major American cities.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #1260 on: November 01, 2020, 10:49:34 PM »
« Edited: November 03, 2020, 03:42:18 AM by Arch »

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 11/1 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.
  • IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.
  • IE: What's the overall change in the total?

Older Numbers (Hidden in spoiler mode to make the post more compact)


10/25: <Sunday>
  • Cases: 8,889,179 (+61,247 | ΔW Change: ↑35.73% | Σ Increase: ↑0.69%)
  • Deaths: 230,510 (+442 | ΔW Change: ↓1.34% | Σ Increase: ↑0.19%)

10/26: <M>
  • Cases: 8,962,783 (+73,604 | ΔW Change: ↑6.88% | Σ Increase: ↑0.83%)
  • Deaths: 231,045 (+535 | ΔW Change: ↑8.74% | Σ Increase: ↑0.23%)

10/27: <T>
  • Cases: 9,037,951 (+75,168 | ΔW Change: ↑19.29% | Σ Increase: ↑0.84%)
  • Deaths: 232,085 (+1,040 | ΔW Change: ↑13.54% | Σ Increase: ↑0.45%)

10/28: <W>
  • Cases: 9,121,800 (+83,849 | ΔW Change: ↑28.69% | Σ Increase: ↑0.93%)
  • Deaths: 233,137 (+1,052 | ΔW Change: ↓17.23% | Σ Increase: ↑0.45%)

10/29: <Þ>
  • Cases: 9,212,767 (+90,967 | ΔW Change: ↑18.40% | Σ Increase: ↑1.00%)
  • Deaths: 234,177 (+1,040 | ΔW Change: ↑7.00% | Σ Increase: ↑0.45%)

10/30: <F>
  • Cases: 9,316,297 (+103,530 | ΔW Change: ↑21.37% | Σ Increase: ↑1.12%)
  • Deaths: 235,159 (+982 | ΔW Change: ↑8.75% | Σ Increase: ↑0.42%)

10/31 (Yesterday): <S>
  • Cases: 9,402,590 (+86,293 | ΔW Change: ↑6.56% | Σ Increase: ↑0.93%)
  • Deaths: 236,072 (+913 | ΔW Change: ↑16.45% | Σ Increase: ↑0.39%)

11/1 (Today): <Sunday>
  • Cases: 9,473,911 (+71,321 | ΔW Change: ↑16.45% | Σ Increase: ↑0.76%)
  • Deaths: 236,471 (+399 | ΔW Change: ↓9.73% | Σ Increase: ↑0.17%)
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jimrtex
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« Reply #1261 on: November 02, 2020, 07:43:13 AM »


Positivity rates in New York and New Jersey were over 50% in April, and testing is up, not down.
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Vaccinated Russian Bear
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« Reply #1262 on: November 02, 2020, 08:29:56 AM »

Even Switzerland, UK, Belgium and Austria among others imposed lockdowns'ish now.

All of them are hit more heavily than US. All of them keeps schools and kindergartens open.


https://www.politico.eu/article/belgium-announces-second-coronavirus-lockdown/
Belgium
Quote
Non-essential shops to close and family visits no longer allowed, although schools will remain open.
https://www.thelocal.at/20201031/austria-to-go-into-hard-new-lockdown-starting-tuesday
Austria
Quote
Universities and high schools will be moved on to distance learning but kindergartens and other schools will remain open.
https://www.thelocal.ch/20201028/switzerland-announces-new-lockdown-measures
Switzerland
Quote
Universities are again forced to return to distance learning. Face-to-face teaching remains allowed in compulsory schools and upper secondary schools (grammar schools and vocational training).
UK





Wealth White Libs of US?


They live and semi-gated/over-policed/uber-safe communities. They are OK with de-funding.
They have a well-paid jobs that easily can be switched to distance working. They are OK with severe lockdowns.
Their kids are placed to uber-rich schools. They are OK with closures [of public schools].
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jimrtex
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« Reply #1263 on: November 02, 2020, 09:25:59 AM »

What is the source for the claim that testing has decreased?  

It is true that positivity rate has increased.  But according the Covid Tracking Project and the Johns Hopkins tracker, testing is also still increasing this week as it has been for the last 6-8 weeks.



https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states


It's possible he is looking state-by-state. For example, while New York has massively increased testing in the past month, it is not the location of a major outbreak at the moment. And Rhode Island just this week passed the threshold of being the first state to have (over the course of the pandemic) undertaken more coronavirus tests than there are residents in the state. But many of the states with the highest new case rates have much, much lower testing rates than the top-tier testing states.
Testing increases when there is more likelihood of infection.

If there are 5000 active cases per million you start seeing pressure on hospitals, as 500 of those may require hospitalization, displacing other patients, and requiring greater isolation to prevent patients, doctors, nurses, etc. being infected in the hospital.

5000 active cases corresponds to about 300 new cases per day (assumptions: 90% non-hospitalized with 14 days for infection to clear; 10% hospitalized, with 28 days for infection to clear, or patient to die).

If all 1 million were tested, 300/1000000 equals 0.03% would be positive (not 3% but 3/100 of 1%).

If 10,000 were tested that would result in 3% positivity, and would represent around 33 possible contacts for each newly infected.

But you might not have 33 potential contacts unless you lived in NYC and rode the subway. If everyone in your immediate family is tested, their positivity rate is likely to be way over 50%. Positivity is sky high in meat-packing plants where the employees also commute together and live together. It is also very high in prisons.

If infection rates are low, testing will mostly be done on persons in hospitals for other reasons, as well as doctors, nurses, etc., who are likely to be repeatedly tested (students at the University of Vermont are being tested weekly.

If you are doing pregnancy tests, and exclude males, and females over 50 and under 15, the positivity rate will be higher, and higher still if other risk (causal) factors are taken into account. It will be close to 100% if symptomatic females are tested.
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It’s so Joever
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« Reply #1264 on: November 02, 2020, 08:39:20 PM »

Again, the fact we don’t have a mask mandate everywhere in the US which is strictly enforced is outrageous. There is no economic harm from a mask mandate, and it greatly will reduce our transmission.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #1265 on: November 02, 2020, 08:41:19 PM »
« Edited: November 04, 2020, 02:42:18 AM by Arch »

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 11/2 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.
  • IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.
  • IE: What's the overall change in the total?

Older Numbers (Hidden in spoiler mode to make the post more compact)


10/25: <Sunday>
  • Cases: 8,889,179 (+61,247 | ΔW Change: ↑35.73% | Σ Increase: ↑0.69%)
  • Deaths: 230,510 (+442 | ΔW Change: ↓1.34% | Σ Increase: ↑0.19%)

10/26: <M>
  • Cases: 8,962,783 (+73,604 | ΔW Change: ↑6.88% | Σ Increase: ↑0.83%)
  • Deaths: 231,045 (+535 | ΔW Change: ↑8.74% | Σ Increase: ↑0.23%)

10/27: <T>
  • Cases: 9,037,951 (+75,168 | ΔW Change: ↑19.29% | Σ Increase: ↑0.84%)
  • Deaths: 232,085 (+1,040 | ΔW Change: ↑13.54% | Σ Increase: ↑0.45%)

10/28: <W>
  • Cases: 9,121,800 (+83,849 | ΔW Change: ↑28.69% | Σ Increase: ↑0.93%)
  • Deaths: 233,137 (+1,052 | ΔW Change: ↓17.23% | Σ Increase: ↑0.45%)

10/29: <Þ>
  • Cases: 9,212,767 (+90,967 | ΔW Change: ↑18.40% | Σ Increase: ↑1.00%)
  • Deaths: 234,177 (+1,040 | ΔW Change: ↑7.00% | Σ Increase: ↑0.45%)

10/30: <F>
  • Cases: 9,316,297 (+103,530 | ΔW Change: ↑21.37% | Σ Increase: ↑1.12%)
  • Deaths: 235,159 (+982 | ΔW Change: ↑8.75% | Σ Increase: ↑0.42%)

10/31: <S>
  • Cases: 9,402,590 (+86,293 | ΔW Change: ↑6.56% | Σ Increase: ↑0.93%)
  • Deaths: 236,072 (+913 | ΔW Change: ↑16.45% | Σ Increase: ↑0.39%)

11/1 (Yesterday): <Sunday>
  • Cases: 9,473,911 (+71,321 | ΔW Change: ↑16.45% | Σ Increase: ↑0.76%)
  • Deaths: 236,471 (+399 | ΔW Change: ↓9.73% | Σ Increase: ↑0.17%)

11/2 (Today): <M>
  • Cases: 9,567,110 (+93,199 | ΔW Change: ↑26.62% | Σ Increase: ↑0.98%)
  • Deaths: 236,983 (+512 | ΔW Change: ↓4.30% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)
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jimrtex
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« Reply #1266 on: November 03, 2020, 02:15:48 AM »

Again, the fact we don’t have a mask mandate everywhere in the US which is strictly enforced is outrageous. There is no economic harm from a mask mandate, and it greatly will reduce our transmission.
How would you enforce it?
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Pericles
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« Reply #1267 on: November 03, 2020, 03:14:18 AM »

Again, the fact we don’t have a mask mandate everywhere in the US which is strictly enforced is outrageous. There is no economic harm from a mask mandate, and it greatly will reduce our transmission.
How would you enforce it?


Fine people who don't follow the requirements.
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Horus
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« Reply #1268 on: November 03, 2020, 03:20:14 AM »

Again, the fact we don’t have a mask mandate everywhere in the US which is strictly enforced is outrageous. There is no economic harm from a mask mandate, and it greatly will reduce our transmission.
How would you enforce it?


Fine people who don't follow the requirements.

While I support a mandate in spirit I'm not trying to give cops another reason to harass people, especially minorities. If I had faith law enforcement would treat all maskless citizens equally? Sure. But that won't happen.
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Pericles
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« Reply #1269 on: November 03, 2020, 03:29:59 AM »

Again, the fact we don’t have a mask mandate everywhere in the US which is strictly enforced is outrageous. There is no economic harm from a mask mandate, and it greatly will reduce our transmission.
How would you enforce it?


Fine people who don't follow the requirements.

While I support a mandate in spirit I'm not trying to give cops another reason to harass people, especially minorities. If I had faith law enforcement would treat all maskless citizens equally? Sure. But that won't happen.

There should be processes in place and the administration should work as hard as possible to make sure that the law is enforced fairly, yes. Ultimately though, maskless people and rulebreakers should be punished and efforts should be made to reduce transmission of Covid-19, to a certain extent what you're saying just means that imperfect enforcement is better than no enforcement. Covid is a very serious public health threat, and overall threat to the community and even the economy. After all, the solution to systemic racism is not to repeal all laws because they're unfairly enforced.
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Indy Texas
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« Reply #1270 on: November 03, 2020, 01:29:45 PM »

President Trump told us to not let COVID dominate your life. Clearly this woman just didn't take his advice. /s

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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #1271 on: November 03, 2020, 02:00:55 PM »

President Trump told us to not let COVID dominate your life. Clearly this woman just didn't take his advice. /s



I had a pulmonary embolism in April. I actually thought it was a heart attack.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #1272 on: November 04, 2020, 02:41:45 AM »

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 11/3 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.
  • IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.
  • IE: What's the overall change in the total?

Older Numbers (Hidden in spoiler mode to make the post more compact)


10/25: <Sunday>
  • Cases: 8,889,179 (+61,247 | ΔW Change: ↑35.73% | Σ Increase: ↑0.69%)
  • Deaths: 230,510 (+442 | ΔW Change: ↓1.34% | Σ Increase: ↑0.19%)

10/26: <M>
  • Cases: 8,962,783 (+73,604 | ΔW Change: ↑6.88% | Σ Increase: ↑0.83%)
  • Deaths: 231,045 (+535 | ΔW Change: ↑8.74% | Σ Increase: ↑0.23%)

10/27: <T>
  • Cases: 9,037,951 (+75,168 | ΔW Change: ↑19.29% | Σ Increase: ↑0.84%)
  • Deaths: 232,085 (+1,040 | ΔW Change: ↑13.54% | Σ Increase: ↑0.45%)

10/28: <W>
  • Cases: 9,121,800 (+83,849 | ΔW Change: ↑28.69% | Σ Increase: ↑0.93%)
  • Deaths: 233,137 (+1,052 | ΔW Change: ↓17.23% | Σ Increase: ↑0.45%)

10/29: <Þ>
  • Cases: 9,212,767 (+90,967 | ΔW Change: ↑18.40% | Σ Increase: ↑1.00%)
  • Deaths: 234,177 (+1,040 | ΔW Change: ↑7.00% | Σ Increase: ↑0.45%)

10/30: <F>
  • Cases: 9,316,297 (+103,530 | ΔW Change: ↑21.37% | Σ Increase: ↑1.12%)
  • Deaths: 235,159 (+982 | ΔW Change: ↑8.75% | Σ Increase: ↑0.42%)

10/31: <S>
  • Cases: 9,402,590 (+86,293 | ΔW Change: ↑6.56% | Σ Increase: ↑0.93%)
  • Deaths: 236,072 (+913 | ΔW Change: ↑16.45% | Σ Increase: ↑0.39%)

11/1: <Sunday>
  • Cases: 9,473,911 (+71,321 | ΔW Change: ↑16.45% | Σ Increase: ↑0.76%)
  • Deaths: 236,471 (+399 | ΔW Change: ↓9.73% | Σ Increase: ↑0.17%)

11/2 (Yesterday): <M>
  • Cases: 9,567,110 (+93,199 | ΔW Change: ↑26.62% | Σ Increase: ↑0.98%)
  • Deaths: 236,983 (+512 | ΔW Change: ↓4.30% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)

11/3 (Today): <T>
  • Cases: 9,693,632 (+126,522 | ΔW Change: ↑68.32% | Σ Increase: ↑1.32%)
  • Deaths: 238,656 (+1,673 | ΔW Change: ↑60.87% | Σ Increase: ↑0.71%)
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emailking
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« Reply #1273 on: November 04, 2020, 11:53:42 AM »

Looks like 30K of that Tuesday number is backlog?
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1274 on: November 04, 2020, 07:02:17 PM »

We sure are rounding that ****ing turn.
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