COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

If the task force is disbanded, I don't think we'll ever be free of this pandemic. Not until we have a vaccine, which might never happen; we've never created a vaccine for a coronavirus.

We would have to learn to live with it, although I think it's impractical to expect social distancing, masks, and all the rest to continue indefinitely. Our society eventually acclimatized itself to HIV/AIDS, to give an example of what the path forward might look like if there is no vaccine.

HIV/AIDS is much easier to prevent transmission of. If this coronavirus is truly with us forever, we're looking at an eventual herd immunity scenario as the only realistic ending. Of course that probably means 1-2 million deaths.

We are only looking at 1-2 million deaths if we achieve herd immunity through a random spread throughout the population.  If we had targeted infections among the young and healthy, we could achieve herd immunity much more quickly with likely under 100,000 deaths.

[emailking]

With Northam's announcement, there's no way Hogan and Bowser won't also start reopening soon just because of how closely linked Northern Virginia is with Maryland and DC.

Hogan said 14 days of decreases across the board. By my count there's 1, and that could get reset tomorrow. VA opening makes that more likely too.

[Tekken_Guy]

If the task force is disbanded, I don't think we'll ever be free of this pandemic. Not until we have a vaccine, which might never happen; we've never created a vaccine for a coronavirus.

We would have to learn to live with it, although I think it's impractical to expect social distancing, masks, and all the rest to continue indefinitely. Our society eventually acclimatized itself to HIV/AIDS, to give an example of what the path forward might look like if there is no vaccine.

HIV/AIDS is much easier to prevent transmission of. If this coronavirus is truly with us forever, we're looking at an eventual herd immunity scenario as the only realistic ending. Of course that probably means 1-2 million deaths.

We are only looking at 1-2 million deaths if we achieve herd immunity through a random spread throughout the population.  If we had targeted infections among the young and healthy, we could achieve herd immunity much more quickly with likely under 100,000 deaths.

That sounds like a good strategy. But why can’t it be implemented?

[emailking]

That sounds like a good strategy. But why can’t it be implemented?

Because it's not a workable plan. It would easily spread to the old and the immunocompromised, even though we'd be trying to avoid it.

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/HKrassenstein/status/1257748497702551552?s=19

Another whistle-blower complaint? Is this a record for an administration? At least when it comes to whistle-blowers we know?

[Mr. Reactionary]

If the task force is disbanded, I don't think we'll ever be free of this pandemic. Not until we have a vaccine, which might never happen; we've never created a vaccine for a coronavirus.

We would have to learn to live with it, although I think it's impractical to expect social distancing, masks, and all the rest to continue indefinitely. Our society eventually acclimatized itself to HIV/AIDS, to give an example of what the path forward might look like if there is no vaccine.

HIV/AIDS is much easier to prevent transmission of. If this coronavirus is truly with us forever, we're looking at an eventual herd immunity scenario as the only realistic ending. Of course that probably means 1-2 million deaths.

We are only looking at 1-2 million deaths if we achieve herd immunity through a random spread throughout the population.  If we had targeted infections among the young and healthy, we could achieve herd immunity much more quickly with likely under 100,000 deaths.

I'd volunteer in exchange for a couple of relatively modest requests. I think a lot of us would to end the hysteria.

[Pericles]

If the task force is disbanded, I don't think we'll ever be free of this pandemic. Not until we have a vaccine, which might never happen; we've never created a vaccine for a coronavirus.

We would have to learn to live with it, although I think it's impractical to expect social distancing, masks, and all the rest to continue indefinitely. Our society eventually acclimatized itself to HIV/AIDS, to give an example of what the path forward might look like if there is no vaccine.

HIV/AIDS is much easier to prevent transmission of. If this coronavirus is truly with us forever, we're looking at an eventual herd immunity scenario as the only realistic ending. Of course that probably means 1-2 million deaths.

We are only looking at 1-2 million deaths if we achieve herd immunity through a random spread throughout the population.  If we had targeted infections among the young and healthy, we could achieve herd immunity much more quickly with likely under 100,000 deaths.

Those are still huge numbers, that's insanity.

[Frodo]

A new study shows just how badly black people have been hit by Covid-19
The number of cases and deaths in minority communities compared to white ones is staggering.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 5/5 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

Δ Change: Day-by-day Growth or Decline or COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

<Last Numbers for 3/26-3/28 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 3/29-4/4 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/5-4/11 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/12-4/18 in this Post>

4/19: <Sunday>

• Cases: 764,303 (+25,473 | Δ Change: ↓12.45% | Σ Increase: ↑3.45%)
• Deaths: 40,548 (+1,534 | Δ Change: ↓17.53% | Σ Increase: ↑3.93%)

4/20:

• Cases: 792,759 (+28,456 | Δ Change: ↑11.71% | Σ Increase: ↑3.28%)
• Deaths: 42,514 (+1,966 | Δ Change: ↑28.16% | Σ Increase: ↑4.85%)

4/21:

• Cases: 818,744 (+25,985 | Δ Change: ↓8.68% | Σ Increase: ↑3.72%)
• Deaths: 45,318 (+2,804 | Δ Change: ↑42.62% | Σ Increase: ↑6.60%)

4/22:

• Cases: 848,555 (+29,811 | Δ Change: ↑14.72% | Σ Increase: ↑3.64%)
• Deaths: 47,654 (+2,336 | Δ Change: ↓16.69% | Σ Increase: ↑5.15%)

4/23:

• Cases: 880,204 (+31,649 | Δ Change: ↑6.17% | Σ Increase: ↑3.73%)
• Deaths: 49,845 (+2,191 | Δ Change: ↓6.21% | Σ Increase: ↑4.60%)

4/24:

• Cases: 925,038 (+44,834 | Δ Change: ↑41.70% | Σ Increase: ↑5.09%)
• Deaths: 52,185 (+2,340 | Δ Change: ↑6.80% | Σ Increase: ↑4.69%)

4/25:

• Cases: 960,651 (+35,613 | Δ Change: ↓20.57% | Σ Increase: ↑3.85%)
• Deaths: 54,256 (+2,071 | Δ Change: ↓11.50% | Σ Increase: ↑3.97%)

4/26: <Sunday>

• Cases: 987,160 (+26,509 | Δ Change: ↓25.56% | Σ Increase: ↑2.76%)
• Deaths: 55,413 (+1,157 | Δ Change: ↓44.13% | Σ Increase: ↑2.13%)

4/27:

• Cases: 1,010,299 (+23,139 | Δ Change: ↓12.71% | Σ Increase: ↑2.34%)
• Deaths: 56,797 (+1,384 | Δ Change: ↑19.62% | Σ Increase: ↑2.50%)

4/28:

• Cases: 1,035,454 (+25,155 | Δ Change: ↑8.71% | Σ Increase: ↑2.49%)
• Deaths: 59,252 (+2,455 | Δ Change: ↑77.38% | Σ Increase: ↑4.32%)

4/29:

• Cases: 1,064,572 (+29,118 | Δ Change: ↑15.75% | Σ Increase: ↑2.81%)
• Deaths: 61,669 (+2,417 | Δ Change: ↓1.55% | Σ Increase: ↑4.08%)

4/30:

• Cases: 1,095,023 (+30,451 | Δ Change: ↑4.58% | Σ Increase: ↑2.86%)
• Deaths: 63,856 (+2,187 | Δ Change: ↓9.52% | Σ Increase: ↑3.55%)

5/1:

• Cases: 1,131,280 (+36,257 | Δ Change: ↑19.07% | Σ Increase: ↑3.31%)
• Deaths: 65,766 (+1,910 | Δ Change: ↓12.67% | Σ Increase: ↑2.99%)

5/2:

• Cases: 1,160,774 (+29,484 | Δ Change: ↓18.68% | Σ Increase: ↑2.61%)
• Deaths: 67,444 (+1,678 | Δ Change: ↓12.15% | Σ Increase: ↑2.55%)

5/3: <Sunday>

• Cases: 1,187,804 (+27,030 | Δ Change: ↓8.32% | Σ Increase: ↑2.11%)
• Deaths: 68,589 (+1,142 | Δ Change: ↓31.94% | Σ Increase: ↑1.70%)

5/4 (Yesterday):

• Cases: 1,212,835 (+25,031 | Δ Change: ↓7.40% | Σ Increase: ↑2.33%)
• Deaths: 69,921 (+1,332 | Δ Change: ↑16.64% | Σ Increase: ↑1.54%)

5/5 (Today):

• Cases: 1,236,987 (+24,152 | Δ Change: ↓3.51% | Σ Increase: ↑1.99%)
• Deaths: 72,241 (+2,320 | Δ Change: ↑74.17% | Σ Increase: ↑3.32%)

[Tintrlvr]

A new study shows just how badly black people have been hit by Covid-19
The number of cases and deaths in minority communities compared to white ones is staggering.

There are some recent reports that high levels of mortality may be associated with Vitamin D deficiency, which is a problem for everyone but particularly acute for people with darker skin tones.

[Tintrlvr]

If the task force is disbanded, I don't think we'll ever be free of this pandemic. Not until we have a vaccine, which might never happen; we've never created a vaccine for a coronavirus.

We would have to learn to live with it, although I think it's impractical to expect social distancing, masks, and all the rest to continue indefinitely. Our society eventually acclimatized itself to HIV/AIDS, to give an example of what the path forward might look like if there is no vaccine.

HIV/AIDS is much easier to prevent transmission of. If this coronavirus is truly with us forever, we're looking at an eventual herd immunity scenario as the only realistic ending. Of course that probably means 1-2 million deaths.

We are only looking at 1-2 million deaths if we achieve herd immunity through a random spread throughout the population.  If we had targeted infections among the young and healthy, we could achieve herd immunity much more quickly with likely under 100,000 deaths.

Those are still huge numbers, that's insanity.

We're going to hit 100,000 deaths with the current scattershot approach by the end of June at the latest anyway.

[Pericles]

If the task force is disbanded, I don't think we'll ever be free of this pandemic. Not until we have a vaccine, which might never happen; we've never created a vaccine for a coronavirus.

We would have to learn to live with it, although I think it's impractical to expect social distancing, masks, and all the rest to continue indefinitely. Our society eventually acclimatized itself to HIV/AIDS, to give an example of what the path forward might look like if there is no vaccine.

HIV/AIDS is much easier to prevent transmission of. If this coronavirus is truly with us forever, we're looking at an eventual herd immunity scenario as the only realistic ending. Of course that probably means 1-2 million deaths.

We are only looking at 1-2 million deaths if we achieve herd immunity through a random spread throughout the population.  If we had targeted infections among the young and healthy, we could achieve herd immunity much more quickly with likely under 100,000 deaths.

Those are still huge numbers, that's insanity.

We're going to hit 100,000 deaths with the current scattershot approach by the end of June at the latest anyway.

Yeah but that doesn't mean it's not a completely unacceptable outcome.

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

Why the increase in deaths? Backlogged?

[Dr. Arch]

Why the increase in deaths? Backlogged?

Usual trend, yes.

[Tintrlvr]

If the task force is disbanded, I don't think we'll ever be free of this pandemic. Not until we have a vaccine, which might never happen; we've never created a vaccine for a coronavirus.

We would have to learn to live with it, although I think it's impractical to expect social distancing, masks, and all the rest to continue indefinitely. Our society eventually acclimatized itself to HIV/AIDS, to give an example of what the path forward might look like if there is no vaccine.

HIV/AIDS is much easier to prevent transmission of. If this coronavirus is truly with us forever, we're looking at an eventual herd immunity scenario as the only realistic ending. Of course that probably means 1-2 million deaths.

We are only looking at 1-2 million deaths if we achieve herd immunity through a random spread throughout the population.  If we had targeted infections among the young and healthy, we could achieve herd immunity much more quickly with likely under 100,000 deaths.

Those are still huge numbers, that's insanity.

We're going to hit 100,000 deaths with the current scattershot approach by the end of June at the latest anyway.

Yeah but that doesn't mean it's not a completely unacceptable outcome.

I don't understand what you're saying. There isn't an alternative where 100,000 people don't die. There is no acceptable outcome by your standard.

[Tintrlvr]

Why the increase in deaths? Backlogged?

PA reported over 500 deaths today vs. just 14 yesterday. NJ and GA also had huge spikes. All three of those states have been pretty inconsistent in reporting deaths; they seem to be bunching their reporting so most deaths in a week are reported on just some days.

NY did not report the most new cases today for the first time since March 14 (NJ reported more).

[emailking]

A new study shows just how badly black people have been hit by Covid-19
The number of cases and deaths in minority communities compared to white ones is staggering.

There are some recent reports that high levels of mortality may be associated with Vitamin D deficiency, which is a problem for everyone but particularly acute for people with darker skin tones.

I take a Men's One A Day which has 125% the recommended daily value for that. Hopefully this would help me.

[Brittain33]

I read that New York reported 1,600 deaths in nursing homes that were previously unreported. I wonder if that accounts for today's jump.

[Dr. Arch]

I read that New York reported 1,600 deaths in nursing homes that were previously unreported. I wonder if that accounts for today's jump.

No

[Calthrina950]

If the task force is disbanded, I don't think we'll ever be free of this pandemic. Not until we have a vaccine, which might never happen; we've never created a vaccine for a coronavirus.

We would have to learn to live with it, although I think it's impractical to expect social distancing, masks, and all the rest to continue indefinitely. Our society eventually acclimatized itself to HIV/AIDS, to give an example of what the path forward might look like if there is no vaccine.

HIV/AIDS is much easier to prevent transmission of. If this coronavirus is truly with us forever, we're looking at an eventual herd immunity scenario as the only realistic ending. Of course that probably means 1-2 million deaths.

True, but as I've said, we're not going to be able to continue today's measures indefinitely. Do you think people are going to tolerate putting up with social distancing on a permanent basis? And I'm aware of the arguments that have been made about herd immunity.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Sad news.

One of the first Colorado people to receive a plasma treatment from a recovered person has died. 47 year old male, leaving a wife and two kids. Got the treatment early last month. As far as I'm aware the other patients who received a plasma treatment are doing okay (heard there was a 68 year old man who is either mostly or fully recovered after a receiving plasma).

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

If the task force is disbanded, I don't think we'll ever be free of this pandemic. Not until we have a vaccine, which might never happen; we've never created a vaccine for a coronavirus.

We would have to learn to live with it, although I think it's impractical to expect social distancing, masks, and all the rest to continue indefinitely. Our society eventually acclimatized itself to HIV/AIDS, to give an example of what the path forward might look like if there is no vaccine.

HIV/AIDS is much easier to prevent transmission of. If this coronavirus is truly with us forever, we're looking at an eventual herd immunity scenario as the only realistic ending. Of course that probably means 1-2 million deaths.

We are only looking at 1-2 million deaths if we achieve herd immunity through a random spread throughout the population.  If we had targeted infections among the young and healthy, we could achieve herd immunity much more quickly with likely under 100,000 deaths.

Those are still huge numbers, that's insanity.

We're going to hit 100,000 deaths with the current scattershot approach by the end of June at the latest anyway.

Yeah but that doesn't mean it's not a completely unacceptable outcome.

What do you think would be an acceptable outcome at this point given that we already have 70,000 deaths and are still seeing about 2,000 deaths per day?

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/JonIsAwesomest/status/1257736569370247169

[jimrtex]

France



France 1 May - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 59,955 – April 11
Recoveries added to curve – 77,000

France on it's way down the curve.

Is France testing anyone who isn't showing up at a hospital in respiratory distress?

Their death to case ratio is up to 15% and creeping upward.

Of course, that wouldn't make your curves invalid since new cases would be recorded on a consistent basis.

If a country with increased testing is reporting asymptomatic individuals, they are essentially reporting cases that have recovered as soon as the individual recovers from the pain of having a swab crammed up their nostril, and don't have to run the three weeks before they walk out of the hospital or their body is carried out.

[T'Chenka]

https://twitter.com/JonIsAwesomest/status/1257736569370247169

9/11 was a human vs human violent murder situation, against brown anti-American muslims ("others"), who are humans and understand concepts such as revenge and defeat. COVID-19 is man vs nature. Humans (and in fact animals as well) will approach these two things very differently psychologically.