COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[jamestroll]

I have been chided for worrying about Democratic electoral prospects over covid restrictions. Being told I do not care about people dying. That is absolutely false!

The first thing newly elected GOP Governors of Virginia, maybe New Jersey in January 2022 and a dozen new states in January 2023 would be immediately open up all schools and axe any public health restrictions anyway.

And of course the newly empowered GOP state governments within months would do they what they usually do. Undermine public health agencies, cut programs for the poor, etc.

[jamestroll]

At least to me it seemed the entire point of the spring lockdowns and the massive Cares Act was to buy time to create a competent plan in dealing with covid. But it was entirely wasted.

Trump's push to reopen early and Maga Protesters arguing with nurses in the streets fed off to the left having a counterreaction of demanding lockdowns for years until virus eradication. And anyone who even slightly disagreed was accused of being de facto murderer or indifferent to deaths.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 2/20 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE:What's the overall change in the total?

Brackets []: These represent the total change for the day, including backlogged reports, if any.

• These numbers are inflated relative to the actual reports for the day, so they are not used to calculate the comparative percentage shifts.

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2/7: <Sunday>

• Cases: 27,611,403 (+91,767 | ΔW Change: ↓9.58% | Σ Increase: ↑0.33%)
• Deaths: 474,933 (+1,405 | ΔW Change: ↓25.97% | Σ Increase: ↑0.30%)

2/8: <M>

• Cases: 27,700,629 (+89,226 | ΔW Change: ↓38.10% | Σ Increase: ↑0.32%)
• Deaths: 476,405 (+1,472 | ΔW Change: ↓23.89% | Σ Increase: ↑0.31%)

2/9: <T>

• Cases: 27,799,756 (+99,127 | ΔW Change: ↓14.53% | Σ Increase: ↑0.36%)
• Deaths: 479,772 (+3,367 | ΔW Change: ↓7.58% | Σ Increase: ↑0.71%)

2/10: <W>

• Cases: 27,897,214 (+97,458 | ΔW Change: ↓20.84% | Σ Increase: ↑0.35%)
• Deaths: 483,200 (+3,428 | ΔW Change: ↓15.86% | Σ Increase: ↑0.71%)

2/11: <Þ>

• Cases: 28,002,240 (+105,026 | ΔW Change: ↓14.91% | Σ Increase: ↑0.38%)
• Deaths: 486,922 (+3,722 | ΔW Change: ↓26.41% | Σ Increase: ↑0.77%)

2/12: <F>

• Cases: 28,106,704 (+104,464 | ΔW Change: ↓21.71% | Σ Increase: ↑0.37%)
• Deaths: 492,521 (+2,908 [+5,599] | ΔW Change: ↓14.90% | Σ Increase: ↑1.15%)

2/13: <S>

• Cases: 28,196,964 (+90,260 | ΔW Change: ↓19.63% | Σ Increase: ↑0.32%)
• Deaths: 496,063 (+2,272 [+3,542] | ΔW Change: ↓19.52% | Σ Increase: ↑0.72%)

2/14: <Sunday>

• Cases: 28,261,470 (+64,506 | ΔW Change: ↓29.71% | Σ Increase: ↑0.23%)
• Deaths: 497,174 (+1,111 | ΔW Change: ↓20.93% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)

2/15: <M>

• Cases: 28,317,703 (+56,233 | ΔW Change: ↓36.98% | Σ Increase: ↑0.20%)
• Deaths: 498,203 (+1,029 | ΔW Change: ↓30.10% | Σ Increase: ↑0.21%)

2/16: <T>

• Cases: 28,381,220 (+63,517 | ΔW Change: ↓35.92% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)
• Deaths: 499,991 (+1,788 | ΔW Change: ↓46.90% | Σ Increase: ↑0.36%)

2/17: <W>

• Cases: 28,453,526 (+72,706 | ΔW Change: ↓25.40% | Σ Increase: ↑0.25%)
• Deaths: 502,544 (+2,553 | ΔW Change: ↓25.53% | Σ Increase: ↑0.51%)

2/18: <Þ>

• Cases: 28,523,524 (+69,998 | ΔW Change: ↓33.35% | Σ Increase: ↑0.25%)
• Deaths: 505,309 (+2,765 | ΔW Change: ↓25.71% | Σ Increase: ↑0.55%)

2/19 (Yesterday): <F>

• Cases: 28,603,813 (+80,289 | ΔW Change: ↓11.05% | Σ Increase: ↑0.28%)
• Deaths: 507,746 (+2,437 | ΔW Change: ↓16.20% | Σ Increase: ↑0.48%)

2/20 (Today): <S>

• Cases: 28,706,473 (+69,617 [+102,660] | ΔW Change: ↓22.87% | Σ Increase: ↑0.36%)
• Deaths: 509,875 (+1,907 [+2,129] | ΔW Change: ↓16.07% | Σ Increase: ↑0.42%)

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Brace yourselves, because apparently there's a huge backlog of 30,000 cases coming. Corona Scanner reports a mysterious 30,000 cases just today, and I don't know where they're from.

Also, I saw something that said cases in nursing homes in Kentucky have been reduced to just about zero after the vaccine came out.

[GP270watch]

Israel says that Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine effectively stops the spread of Covid-19 according to their vaccine data which is extensive.

Pfizer-BioNTech Shot Stops Covid’s Spread, Israeli Study Shows

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Israel says that Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine effectively stops the spread of Covid-19 according to their vaccine data which is extensive.

Pfizer-BioNTech Shot Stops Covid’s Spread, Israeli Study Shows

And that's confirmation of the silver bullet we were waiting for.

If Moderna follows suit (and I have little doubt it will), the pandemic will be a minor annoyance by summer.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 2/21 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE:What's the overall change in the total?

Brackets []: These represent the total change for the day, including backlogged reports, if any.

• These numbers are inflated relative to the actual reports for the day, so they are not used to calculate the comparative percentage shifts.

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2/14: <Sunday>

• Cases: 28,261,470 (+64,506 | ΔW Change: ↓29.71% | Σ Increase: ↑0.23%)
• Deaths: 497,174 (+1,111 | ΔW Change: ↓20.93% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)

2/15: <M>

• Cases: 28,317,703 (+56,233 | ΔW Change: ↓36.98% | Σ Increase: ↑0.20%)
• Deaths: 498,203 (+1,029 | ΔW Change: ↓30.10% | Σ Increase: ↑0.21%)

2/16: <T>

• Cases: 28,381,220 (+63,517 | ΔW Change: ↓35.92% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)
• Deaths: 499,991 (+1,788 | ΔW Change: ↓46.90% | Σ Increase: ↑0.36%)

2/17: <W>

• Cases: 28,453,526 (+72,706 | ΔW Change: ↓25.40% | Σ Increase: ↑0.25%)
• Deaths: 502,544 (+2,553 | ΔW Change: ↓25.53% | Σ Increase: ↑0.51%)

2/18: <Þ>

• Cases: 28,523,524 (+69,998 | ΔW Change: ↓33.35% | Σ Increase: ↑0.25%)
• Deaths: 505,309 (+2,765 | ΔW Change: ↓25.71% | Σ Increase: ↑0.55%)

2/19: <F>

• Cases: 28,603,813 (+80,289 | ΔW Change: ↓11.05% | Σ Increase: ↑0.28%)
• Deaths: 507,746 (+2,437 | ΔW Change: ↓16.20% | Σ Increase: ↑0.48%)

2/20 (Yesterday): <S>

• Cases: 28,706,473 (+69,617 [+102,660] | ΔW Change: ↓22.87% | Σ Increase: ↑0.36%)
• Deaths: 509,875 (+1,907 [+2,129] | ΔW Change: ↓16.07% | Σ Increase: ↑0.42%)

2/21 (Today): <Sunday>

• Cases: 28,765,423 (+58,950 | ΔW Change: ↓8.61% | Σ Increase: ↑0.21%)
• Deaths: 511,133 (+1,258 | ΔW Change: ↑13.23% | Σ Increase: ↑0.25%)

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Well, the streak had to end eventually.

Still a good trend in cases and no sign of reversing.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

For some reason Virginia recorded record deaths totals each of the last two days, without any real explanation. 

I wouldn’t be surprised if week-over-week cases see a slightly increase the next couple days even if the overall trend remains downward given the holiday last weekend.

[BudgieForce]

For some reason Virginia recorded record deaths totals each of the last two days, without any real explanation. 

I wouldn’t be surprised if week-over-week cases see a slightly increase the next couple days even if the overall trend remains downward given the holiday last weekend.

Backlog perhaps?

[jamestroll]

I'm tired of these essential public servants freeloading.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

We have to be careful from now on when we count U.S. cases, because Iowa has begun counting each positive test, rather than each person who tests positive. I think this is what gave us the 30,000 extra cases on Corona Scanner, and Worldometer has backdated about 30,000 cases from Iowa going back for weeks. Iowa has ridiculously high case counts on some days.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I've always wanted schools to reopen, but only if/when a vaccine was available and distributed to any school employee/teacher that wants it.

That was my stance a year ago and that's my stance now. If folks are so eager for schools to reopen, give those "essential workers" the damn vaccine.

[Pericles]

Looking at the Covid tracking project, it seems that New York has the highest number of hospitalised people per capita, and the second highest level of daily cases per capita (highest being South Carolina). Is Cuomo doing something wrong?

[Frodo]

We have officially lost as many Americans as we had during World War II, the Korean War, and the Vietnam War combined, a lingering legacy from Trump's mismanagement of the coronavirus pandemic:

US tops 500,000 virus deaths, matching the toll of 3 wars

Fortunately, it is highly unlikely that we will surpass the combined death toll (North and South) we suffered from the American Civil War.  

[emailking]

We have officially lost as many Americans as we had during World War II, the Korean War, and the Vietnam War combined, a lingering legacy from Trump's mismanagement of the coronavirus pandemic:

US tops 500,000 virus deaths, matching the toll of 3 wars

Fortunately, it is highly unlikely that we will surpass the combined death toll (North and South) we suffered from the American Civil War.  

Why do you say that? I thought the models were showing another 100K deaths.

[Frodo]

We have officially lost as many Americans as we had during World War II, the Korean War, and the Vietnam War combined, a lingering legacy from Trump's mismanagement of the coronavirus pandemic:

US tops 500,000 virus deaths, matching the toll of 3 wars

Fortunately, it is highly unlikely that we will surpass the combined death toll (North and South) we suffered from the American Civil War.  

Why do you say that? I thought the models were showing another 100K deaths.

The University of Washington model is showing less than that, around 89,000 additional deaths by June 1.  So we could potentially be rounding a corner, finally.   

That said, there are caveats:

But experts warn that dangerous variants could cause the trend to reverse itself. And some experts say not enough Americans have been inoculated yet for the vaccine to be making much of a difference.

Instead, the drop-off in deaths and cases has been attributed to the passing of the holidays; the cold and bleak days of midwinter, when many people stay home; and better adherence to mask rules and social distancing.

[ilikeverin]

Looking at the Covid tracking project, it seems that New York has the highest number of hospitalised people per capita, and the second highest level of daily cases per capita (highest being South Carolina). Is Cuomo doing something wrong?

Cuomo has been doing many things wrong for a while. I can't claim much about the hospitalizations, but some part of the daily cases is probably just testing... NY is still testing at a good clip, pushing its observed rate higher. If you look at a site like COVID19 Projections, which incorporates both observed rates and test numbers into their estimates of prevalence, it's on the high end for the states but not as ridiculously so as the numbers suggest.

[Calthrina950]

We have officially lost as many Americans as we had during World War II, the Korean War, and the Vietnam War combined, a lingering legacy from Trump's mismanagement of the coronavirus pandemic:

US tops 500,000 virus deaths, matching the toll of 3 wars

Fortunately, it is highly unlikely that we will surpass the combined death toll (North and South) we suffered from the American Civil War.  

Why do you say that? I thought the models were showing another 100K deaths.

The University of Washington model is showing less than that, around 89,000 additional deaths by June 1.  So we could potentially be rounding a corner, finally.   

That said, there are caveats:

But experts warn that dangerous variants could cause the trend to reverse itself. And some experts say not enough Americans have been inoculated yet for the vaccine to be making much of a difference.

Instead, the drop-off in deaths and cases has been attributed to the passing of the holidays; the cold and bleak days of midwinter, when many people stay home; and better adherence to mask rules and social distancing.

The Spanish Flu of a century ago killed about as many Americans as the Civil War did. Hopefully, coronavirus won't reach that level, but sadly, I wouldn't be surprised if it does.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 2/22 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE:What's the overall change in the total?

Brackets []: These represent the total change for the day, including backlogged reports, if any.

• These numbers are inflated relative to the actual reports for the day, so they are not used to calculate the comparative percentage shifts.

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2/14: <Sunday>

• Cases: 28,261,470 (+64,506 | ΔW Change: ↓29.71% | Σ Increase: ↑0.23%)
• Deaths: 497,174 (+1,111 | ΔW Change: ↓20.93% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)

2/15: <M>

• Cases: 28,317,703 (+56,233 | ΔW Change: ↓36.98% | Σ Increase: ↑0.20%)
• Deaths: 498,203 (+1,029 | ΔW Change: ↓30.10% | Σ Increase: ↑0.21%)

2/16: <T>

• Cases: 28,381,220 (+63,517 | ΔW Change: ↓35.92% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)
• Deaths: 499,991 (+1,788 | ΔW Change: ↓46.90% | Σ Increase: ↑0.36%)

2/17: <W>

• Cases: 28,453,526 (+72,706 | ΔW Change: ↓25.40% | Σ Increase: ↑0.25%)
• Deaths: 502,544 (+2,553 | ΔW Change: ↓25.53% | Σ Increase: ↑0.51%)

2/18: <Þ>

• Cases: 28,523,524 (+69,998 | ΔW Change: ↓33.35% | Σ Increase: ↑0.25%)
• Deaths: 505,309 (+2,765 | ΔW Change: ↓25.71% | Σ Increase: ↑0.55%)

2/19: <F>

• Cases: 28,603,813 (+80,289 | ΔW Change: ↓11.05% | Σ Increase: ↑0.28%)
• Deaths: 507,746 (+2,437 | ΔW Change: ↓16.20% | Σ Increase: ↑0.48%)

2/20: <S>

• Cases: 28,706,473 (+69,617 [+102,660] | ΔW Change: ↓22.87% | Σ Increase: ↑0.36%)
• Deaths: 509,875 (+1,907 [+2,129] | ΔW Change: ↓16.07% | Σ Increase: ↑0.42%)

2/21 (Yesterday): <Sunday>

• Cases: 28,765,423 (+58,950 | ΔW Change: ↓8.61% | Σ Increase: ↑0.21%)
• Deaths: 511,133 (+1,258 | ΔW Change: ↑13.23% | Σ Increase: ↑0.25%)

2/22 (Today): <M>

• Cases: 28,826,307 (+60,884 | ΔW Change: ↑8.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.21%)
• Deaths: 512,590 (+1,457 | ΔW Change: ↑41.59% | Σ Increase: ↑0.29%)

[NYDem]

2/22 (Today): <M>

• Cases: 28,826,307 (+60,884 | ΔW Change: ↑8.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.21%)
• Deaths: 512,590 (+1,457 | ΔW Change: ↑41.59% | Σ Increase: ↑0.29%)

sh**t

[Stańczyk]

2/22 (Today): <M>

• Cases: 28,826,307 (+60,884 | ΔW Change: ↑8.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.21%)
• Deaths: 512,590 (+1,457 | ΔW Change: ↑41.59% | Σ Increase: ↑0.29%)

sh**t

Last week was Presidents' Day so the normal holiday backlog occurred. This is expected.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I’ll remind everyone of my post from last night:

I wouldn’t be surprised if week-over-week cases see a slight increase the next couple days even if the overall trend remains downward given the holiday last weekend.

I actually expect we’ll see the biggest case jump tomorrow.

[Dr. Arch]

2/22 (Today): <M>

• Cases: 28,826,307 (+60,884 | ΔW Change: ↑8.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.21%)
• Deaths: 512,590 (+1,457 | ΔW Change: ↑41.59% | Σ Increase: ↑0.29%)

sh**t

Last week was Presidents' Day so the normal holiday backlog occurred. This is expected.

It's not listed as a backlog in Worldometers, but I suppose that it's possible. Let's see what the rest of the week looks like.

[emailking]

I think it just means the cases are levelling off so things are more noisy now. They could still keep decreasing on average, but we're no longer on the heavy downslope that dominated any noise for a couple weeks. So some back and forth now is to be expected.