COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[Fargobison]

My governor finally broke down and is putting some restrictions in place now that the hospitals are under massive strain and have put surge protocols in place. Sadly our neighbors to the south will continue to do nothing which is sad...

https://twitter.com/jeremyjturley/status/1327461278181371906

[jamestroll]

The Governors of Oregon and New Mexico should be impeached immediately! Irresponsible to leave masses of people unemployed without a stimulus!

[CrimsonCommander688]

Nevada Governor Steve Sisolak tests positive for COVID-19

[BlueSwan]

More than 180k cases today. sh**t is getting all too real. And it is clearly going to keep getting worse. The rate at which we are approaching the 200k cases per day marker is startling. Illinois alone is with 15k+ confirmed cases today, which is higher than CA or TX got in previous surges. The bad thing is there is no sign of any sort of deceleration, and policymakers (ha) are so far showing no signs of serious reaction. A relative of mine recently had a serious non-covid medical condition that required hospitalization, and was only barely able to get a hospital bed.

Trump actually got lucky that the election was in early november. A few weeks later and it would have been apparent to everyone how awful his handling of this pandemic has been. 300k cases per day within the next couple of weeks does not seem out of the question at this rate.

[President Johnson]

I wonder whether vaccine will still be free to everybody under a Biden Administration or whether Republicans in congress will all of a sudden rediscover their fiscal discipline and tell President Biden, it would be too expensive after Trump blew the deficit big time?

[GP270watch]

I wonder whether vaccine will still be free to everybody under a Biden Administration or whether Republicans in congress will all of a sudden rediscover their fiscal discipline and tell President Biden, it would be too expensive after Trump blew the deficit big time?

 The vaccine has to be free or the general public will not take it. There is a policy doctor who actually wants to pay people to take it so we have widespread adoption. Right now I read that the rich and "VIPs" in entertainment and finance have been actively contacting Pfizer and Moderna to be first in line for  the vaccine doses available. But in the general population there is a lot of skepticism about the vaccine especially since the vaccine is so new for a disease that has been so politicized.

[Roll Roons]

I wonder whether vaccine will still be free to everybody under a Biden Administration or whether Republicans in congress will all of a sudden rediscover their fiscal discipline and tell President Biden, it would be too expensive after Trump blew the deficit big time?

 The vaccine has to be free or the general public will not take it. There is a policy doctor who actually wants to pay people to take it so we have widespread adoption. Right now I read that the rich and "VIPs" in entertainment and finance have been actively contacting Pfizer and Moderna to be first in line for  the vaccine doses available. But in the general population there is a lot of skepticism about the vaccine especially since the vaccine is so new for a disease that has been so politicized.

Honestly wouldn't be surprised if Bill Gates and/or Mike Bloomberg pay for its distribution.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

This graph of the positivity rate hasn't been posted in a while, so it is worth taking a look at that again...



The really scary thing is that the rate of increase of the positivity rate is steeper/larger than it ever was during the July peak, and so far the rate of increase is increasing and shows no obvious sign of slowing down.

We are getting back up near to the sort of positivity rates we saw during parts of the initial March-April-May peak, and that is despite the fact that there are now many times more tests than there were back then. Obviously in some areas, like in the Dakotas/upper midwest, the positivity rates are significantly higher than the national average, and rival the New York positivity rates during the worst of the first peak. The high positivity rates suggest that on a national level, things are getting as bad as they were during the first peak. There are a few things that may be keeping deaths relatively lower, at least so far:

a) improved treatment - if proper medical care is available, better treatment methods have been devised which (somewhat) lower the fatality rate.
b) geographical dispersion - the current peak/outbreak, while concentrated more in the north, is spread across the whole country, rather than especially concentrated in a few locales like New York. To some degree this helped to ensure things didn't get too bad in New York, because doctors/materiel etc from other parts of the country were sent to New York. But this time around, everywhere is being effective, and there are not going to be spare doctors/nurses from other parts of the country who can help. The problem is that the "improved treatment" from item a) is going to start becoming less and less effective the more the medical system gets overwhelmed.
a) time - clearly we have not yet remotely hit the peak of the current surge, so things are clearly going to get worse in these respects, and unless we see some sort of slowdown very very soon, it looks like we are on course for them to be clearly quite a bit worse than in March-April-May.

Here are the hospitalizations:



These have already exceeded hospitalizations in the previous 2 peaks, and we are clearly going quite a bit higher. The slope/rate of increase of hospitalizations looks a bit slower than the the slope/rate of increase in the positivity rate, but unfortunately hospitalizations are a lagging indicator following cases, and it is unavoidable at this point that the rate of increase of hospitalizations is going to increase more over at least the next week or two or three, even if we suddenly start turning the situation around now (unless we run out of hospital beds and have fewer "hospitalizations" only because there is nowhere left to hospitalize people in some areas).

Looking at these graphs, I have to conclude that the only way to (maybe) avoid total disaster is to have a national lockdown, and have it now. By the time Biden is inaugurated, it will already be too late. But it is state and local officials that locked down the first time, not Trump, in any case. Stuff like mask wearing, while helpful, is clearly not enough - partly because not enough people comply with it, and partly because cloth masks that most people use are less effective than proper masks.

Barring that, how many deaths are we going to end up with? To me it looks like 500k is very plausible if not likely, and perhaps up to a million, depending on vaccine timelines and effectiveness.

It is pretty sad to hit these sorts of numbers relatively soon before we expect vaccines to start being available. If we could have just kept it somewhat under control for a little bit longer, seemingly a lot of this could have been avoided. It is in fact possible to keep the virus under control - look at countries like South Korea and China and others in Asia/Australia for the best examples. And also guess which countries have economies which are doing relatively well? Those same countries in Asia/Australia. But alas, we seem to be a failed society.

[T'Chenka]

MASSIVE supetspreader event in Washington DC today, directly because Trump convinced these people that the election is being stolen from him. He will NOT be saying that these people should not have participated in a superspreader event. He doesn't care. Believe me.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

That positivity rate really is getting quite alarming. There's definitely no way we're catching everything in the states with the worst outbreaks, which is going to make containment even more difficult than it already is, since we won't be able to quarantine everyone who needs to quarantine.

[Fargobison]

58.7% positive rate among those tested for the first time in South Dakota today, 53 deaths. Noem continues her crusade of doing nothing to stop it.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

More than 180k cases today. sh**t is getting all too real. And it is clearly going to keep getting worse. The rate at which we are approaching the 200k cases per day marker is startling. Illinois alone is with 15k+ confirmed cases today, which is higher than CA or TX got in previous surges. The bad thing is there is no sign of any sort of deceleration, and policymakers (ha) are so far showing no signs of serious reaction. A relative of mine recently had a serious non-covid medical condition that required hospitalization, and was only barely able to get a hospital bed.

Trump actually got lucky that the election was in early november. A few weeks later and it would have been apparent to everyone how awful his handling of this pandemic has been. 300k cases per day within the next couple of weeks does not seem out of the question at this rate.

It wouldn't have mattered. Republicans are a death cult.

[T'Chenka]

The number of new cases is horrifying. That's on track for every American to get COVID at some point between now and 2026, just by the math and not taking into account vaccines, herd immunity, etc. Keep in mind that that the daily cases could conceivably double or triple from here as well. Hospitals being overrun and both COVID and non-COVID deaths skyrocketing is also a real possibility. This is truly a nightmare.

[It’s so Joever]

The number of new cases is horrifying. That's on track for every American to get COVID at some point between now and 2026, just by the math and not taking into account vaccines, herd immunity, etc. Keep in mind that that the daily cases could conceivably double or triple from here as well. Hospitals being overrun and both COVID and non-COVID deaths skyrocketing is also a real possibility. This is truly a nightmare.

It’s not just a possibility, it is going to happen in two weeks.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 11/14 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

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11/1: <Sunday>

• Cases: 9,473,911 (+71,321 | ΔW Change: ↑16.45% | Σ Increase: ↑0.76%)
• Deaths: 236,471 (+399 | ΔW Change: ↓9.73% | Σ Increase: ↑0.17%)

11/2: <M>

• Cases: 9,567,110 (+93,199 | ΔW Change: ↑26.62% | Σ Increase: ↑0.98%)
• Deaths: 236,983 (+512 | ΔW Change: ↓4.30% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)

11/3: <T>

• Cases: 9,693,632 (+126,522 | ΔW Change: ↑68.32% | Σ Increase: ↑1.32%)
• Deaths: 238,656 (+1,673 | ΔW Change: ↑60.87% | Σ Increase: ↑0.71%)

11/4: <W>

• Cases: 9,801,355 (+107,723 | ΔW Change: ↑28.47% | Σ Increase: ↑1.32%)
• Deaths: 239,829 (+1,173 | ΔW Change: ↑11.50% | Σ Increase: ↑1.11%)

11/5: <Þ>

• Cases: 9,919,522 (+118,167 | ΔW Change: ↑29.90% | Σ Increase: ↑1.21%)
• Deaths: 240,953 (+1,124 | ΔW Change: ↑8.08% | Σ Increase: ↑0.47%)

11/6: <F>

• Cases: 10,058,586 (+139,064 | ΔW Change: ↑52.87% | Σ Increase: ↑1.40%)
• Deaths: 242,230 (+1,277 | ΔW Change: ↑22.79% | Σ Increase: ↑0.53%)

11/7: <S>

• Cases: 10,182,818 (+124,232 | ΔW Change: ↑43.97% | Σ Increase: ↑1.24%)
• Deaths: 243,257 (+1,027 | ΔW Change: ↑12.49% | Σ Increase: ↑0.42%)

11/8: <Sunday>

• Cases: 10,288,480 (+105,662 | ΔW Change: ↑48.15% | Σ Increase: ↑1.04%)
• Deaths: 243,768 (+511 | ΔW Change: ↑28.07% | Σ Increase: ↑0.21%)

11/9: <M>

• Cases: 10,421,956 (+133,476 | ΔW Change: ↑43.22% | Σ Increase: ↑1.30%)
• Deaths: 244,448 (+680 | ΔW Change: ↑32.81% | Σ Increase: ↑0.28%)

11/10: <T>

• Cases: 10,559,184 (+137,228 | ΔW Change: ↑8.46% | Σ Increase: ↑1.32%)
• Deaths: 245,799 (+1,351 | ΔW Change: ↓19.25% | Σ Increase: ↑0.55%)

11/11: <W>

• Cases: 10,708,728 (+149,544 | ΔW Change: ↑38.82% | Σ Increase: ↑1.42%)
• Deaths: 247,398 (+1,599 | ΔW Change: ↑36.32% | Σ Increase: ↑0.65%)

11/12: <Þ>

• Cases: 10,873,936 (+165,208 | ΔW Change: ↑39.81% | Σ Increase: ↑1.54%)
• Deaths: 248,585 (+1,187 | ΔW Change: ↑5.60% | Σ Increase: ↑0.48%)

11/13 (Yesterday): <F>

• Cases: 11,064,364 (+190,428 | ΔW Change: ↑36.94% | Σ Increase: ↑1.75%)
• Deaths: 249,975 (+1,390 | ΔW Change: ↑8.85% | Σ Increase: ↑0.56%)

11/14 (Today): <S>

• Cases: 11,226,038 (+161,674 | ΔW Change: ↑30.14% | Σ Increase: ↑1.46%)
• Deaths: 251,256 (+1,281 | ΔW Change: ↑24.73% | Σ Increase: ↑0.51%)

[emailking]

Meanwhile.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1327840088731029504

omg he is sickening.

[Inmate Trump]

Meanwhile.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1327840088731029504

omg he is sickening.

These people are delusional, and their delusion is dangerous.  How could anyone have ever voted for this clown?

[Fargobison]

Thousands are dying and the president doesn't care at all...

https://twitter.com/brianstelter/status/1327801029321256966

[Hnv1]

is this a scorched earth policy? Biden entering with 2k dead per day and uncontrolled spread in 48 states?

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

is this a scorched earth policy? Biden entering with 2k dead per day and uncontrolled spread in 48 states?

It would be classic Republican/Trumpian MO. On the other hand, it's getting increasingly difficult to distinguish between Republican malevolence and Republican stupidity anymore.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Much of the Midwest is pretty chill and easygoing regarding COVID-19...

https://apnews.com/article/iowa-south-dakota-coronavirus-pandemic-nebraska-north-dakota-bf7197b284401dea8b779cfa764dfab2

This represents what most people around here think. They know the virus is out there, but they can't keep upending their lives over it.

Most people just instinctively stop panicking over things after a few months.

[cg41386]

And it’s no surprise that’s where the rates are highest right now. And those states never “panicked” to begin with, they had (and continue to have) the worst responses.

[It’s so Joever]

Much of the Midwest is pretty chill and easygoing regarding COVID-19...

https://apnews.com/article/iowa-south-dakota-coronavirus-pandemic-nebraska-north-dakota-bf7197b284401dea8b779cfa764dfab2

This represents what most people around here think. They know the virus is out there, but they can't keep upending their lives over it.

Most people just instinctively stop panicking over things after a few months.

Well, at least all the long term lung damage will make universal healthcare necessary!
Lets hope this helps Biden politically since it seems nothing else can be hoped for.

[GP270watch]

Much of the Midwest is pretty chill and easygoing regarding COVID-19...

https://apnews.com/article/iowa-south-dakota-coronavirus-pandemic-nebraska-north-dakota-bf7197b284401dea8b779cfa764dfab2

This represents what most people around here think. They know the virus is out there, but they can't keep upending their lives over it.

Most people just instinctively stop panicking over things after a few months.

Well, at least all the long term lung damage will make universal healthcare necessary!
Lets hope this helps Biden politically since it seems nothing else can be hoped for.

 If I was Joe Biden I would declare a national emergency and expand Medicaid on a Federal level because of Covid-19, Opioid addiction, and gun violence. I would do this by executive order and let the Republicans sue over it. All three are national public health emergencies that need to be dealt with immediately.

[Progressive]

It's very frustrating being in a blue city where people take COVID19 measures seriously. Virtually everyone I see wears a mask (even outdoors), practices distancing etc. And yet we'll lock down and red states won't. At some point it's not sustainable to have such a spotty response. For our mental health included.