COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[Skill and Chance]

Welp, my school has been designated as an outbreak, although my cohort is still in person. Thanks people who said it doesn’t spread through kids without good proof (Del Taco).
 If I get sick, I challenge you truthers to pay my medical bills since it’s “no worse than the flu.”

Wait, the Govt. does not fully cover Covid 19 treatment?

They don't cover any. If you can't afford insurance you're pretty screwed.

I don't think this is true?  It looks like the government is paying COVID-19 treatment costs, specifically for the uninsured

https://www.aha.org/news/headline/2020-04-06-cares-act-fund-reimburse-providers-uninsured-patients

[Skill and Chance]

It seems like we really needed a moderate social distancing policy that citizens and state/local leaders could reasonably stick to for a year vs. what we actually had with a short term near total shutdown and then a free for all, with repeated near total shutdowns in some places.  Something like indoor mask orders + closing schools initially until we determined it wasn't aimed at kids + aggressively breaking up gatherings of >250 (indoor) or >2500 (outdoor) but otherwise letting people live their lives?  All in all, the pro-mask Republican governors probably came closest to this?

[Skill and Chance]

Yeah, I'm not a fan of the tenor of these arguments. Yes, it's true vaccines aren't getting out very well... but deviating from the formulation of the vaccines that we know works just to get an extra, I don't know, 500,000 doses out this month doesn't make much sense to me if it might also reduce their efficacy. The problem is not the formulation of the doses, the problem is the logistics of the supply chain; changing the ways that we give the vaccines out does not actually fix the thing that's causing the holdups.

IDK this feels eerily like the debate over masks in February/March to me: something that is very intuitive and will probably help but hasn't yet been proven, so officials refuse to recommend it.  Given the alternative is death for so many, perhaps we should try it?

[Skill and Chance]

Uhhhh...why all the red?

There was a lot going on last week that probably artificially lowered numbers.

The 2nd highest population state had virtually no reporting last week and unfortunately had near optimal conditions for a new outbreak at the same time (people crowding into whichever friend/relative's house still had power, no water to wash your hands for several days, etc.).

Once the Texas utilities situation is behind us, the 2 weeks after Easter will tell us whether the pandemic is truly ending or whether this is a trough between waves. 

[Skill and Chance]

Until the last week or 2, it seemed the new outbreaks were confined to the states/counties with the lowest vaccination rates in the country.  Florida now has near national average rates of vaccination and probably had a near average rate of infection last year, and we are seeing that a meaningful Delta outbreak is still possible in that setting.   The big question is whether there will be another outbreak in the NE states?  If anywhere in the country already has herd immunity, it should be NYC or Boston.    

[Skill and Chance]

It's August 06, 2021 and

50.0% of the total U.S. Population is fully vaccinated!

INCLUDING more than half the population of these states and territories:

Image Link

And getting close in these states:

49.9% - Iowa
49.9% - Nebraska
49.4% - Florida
49.1% - Michigan
49.0% - Illinois

The trend is clearly partisan (albeit not for long given the above list) but interesting Wisconsin gets there before Illinois.

It looks a lot more like 2012 than 2020, though. 

[Skill and Chance]

The scariest part of this to me is Florida, because it's more vaccinated than the national average and things are still getting this bad there.  Does not bode well at all for the North in Oct-Dec!  Really hope they crank out those boosters promptly and efficiently, because I suspect no state has reached herd immunity yet.

[Skill and Chance]

The scariest part of this to me is Florida, because it's more vaccinated than the national average and things are still getting this bad there. Does not bode well at all for the North in Oct-Dec!  Really hope they crank out those boosters promptly and efficiently, because I suspect no state has reached herd immunity yet.

This is a horribly misleading way, bordering on intentional, of looking at it as the states that are in the 30s-% range are dragging down the national average. The entire Northeast is at or above 70% while Florida is only at 50%--and bear in mind it's only just now reaching that 50% mark, and things were terrible there before that. Not to mention they're a resort state who is acting as if there is no covid which is a recipe for the disaster that's unfolding.

I hope you are right!  In any event, I do think the NE would have gone back to state-enforced social distancing 2 weeks ago if they were on the same trajectory as Florida.  I believe that would help mitigate the worst case scenario.

Florida is by far the most vaccinated of the 25 Trump states and for % with at least one shot as of today is also ahead of AZ, NV, WI, MN and GA (which has a godawful vax rate not far above LA/MS) and tied with CO.  I don’t think I was being misleading.  Yes, the non-FL red states are mostly lightly populated, but so are VT, HI, ME, etc.  The other big red state, TX, is way less vaccinated.  The fact that a lot of the FL vaccinations happened this month is relevant, I agree, and does give the North more hope. 

[Skill and Chance]

Florida does not try and measure residents just shots. That means actual vaccination rates are likely much lower, especially for older folks because those shots began in the winter when a lot of North Easterners were down. My parents got both shots in Florida but are not in the state currently.

Florida counts shots/population to get their numbers but if shots are from 180% of the actual state population, they are greatly increasing the rate.

A good comparison may well be teenagers. Florida has had a huge push to vaccinate them but the rates are still below Texas. That implies that Florida's actual numbers may be closer to Texas, or perhaps a bit below which would explain a lot.

If Florida's actual on the ground numbers this summer are not 62/51 but 52/41 or so it would make a huge difference.

Is this reporting practice unique to Florida?

[Skill and Chance]

3. Masks are a zero cost mitigation measure, a surgical mask costs 5-10c apiece. They don't harm the economy at all, a mask doesn't prevent one from doing anything once the usual exceptions for bars and restaurants are carved out.

Surgical masks don't do a whole lot for the wearer and don't offer a whole lot of protection from Delta given the high amount of viral load that's out there and that they aren't tight fitting.

N95's are the only thing that are really effective, so at least stop trying to push this as a "zero cost" mitigation.

There is data showing that surgical masks are quite statistically effective in reducing spread and somewhat protective for the wearer.  It's not just N95s that help.  There was a great study out of Bangladesh released just today showing a meaningful effect from surgical masks in slowing the spread and protecting the elderly in communities where a majority of the adult population wore them.

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/accnetwork/status/1433916233599143944
Resistance libs getting up in arms about this video without realizing that Virginia Tech has a vaccine mandate.

The stadium is open to the public, did they impose the mandate on everyone? Did they check the vaccine card at the door? I highly doubt it.

I didn't say the stadium should have been closed, there are economic costs to that which at this point nobody has the will to pay. But it's clearly a highly risky activity and people who want to avoid catching COVID-19 should stay away. It's entirely reasonable for public health officials to message against it and discourage people from attending. People who attend do so at their own risk, there are plenty of allowed activities that involve taking on personal risk.

Guess what? People die in car accidents. People die from bee stings. People die from alcohol poisoning. People die from falling down stairs. Risk is inherently a part of life.

We're in this weird intermediate state now.  My primary concern is keeping the rate of mutation slow enough that the vaccines still work reliably for a safe Thanksgiving dinner with grandma.

As I've said before, the big test will be whether COVID takes off in the Northeast between now and Thanksgiving.  If it does, I fear this is never really going to end.   

There has been something of a "wall" in VA  vs. all the surrounding Southern states exploding in cases.  If that's because of the higher vaccination rates, it would be great  news.  But it could also be seasonality or state level reporting effects (I recall VA conducted relatively few tests per capita for part of last year).

[Skill and Chance]

It's interesting how much lower vaccination rates are in Oregon and Colorado vs. most of the NE.  Are they running into the more traditional organic granola anti-vax types in Oregon?   

Florida continues to be the only above average Trump state.  Texas is getting close and had quite an upswing recently, so it might get there this month.

Virginia really stands out vs. the rest of the South, but VA doesn't provide county level data, so this could just be because the D.C. area is at 85% or something.

New Mexico has the most impressive performance outside of the NE states. 

South Dakota is doing way better than North Dakota.

Kentucky is doing particularly well compared to its neighbors.

[Skill and Chance]

It's interesting how much lower vaccination rates are in Oregon and Colorado vs. most of the NE.  Are they running into the more traditional organic granola anti-vax types in Oregon?   

Florida continues to be the only above average Trump state.  Texas is getting close and had quite an upswing recently, so it might get there this month.

Virginia really stands out vs. the rest of the South, but VA doesn't provide county level data, so this could just be because the D.C. area is at 85% or something.

New Mexico has the most impressive performance outside of the NE states. 

South Dakota is doing way better than North Dakota.

Kentucky is doing particularly well compared to its neighbors.

Andy Beshear.

Not sure about the Dem Gov explanation, considering Louisiana was one of the very lowest in the country until last month and lower than several of its neighbors.  Kansas and Nebraska are the same.
 NC is doing several % better than its neighbors, though, including Georgia.  So maybe?

Among Trump states, vaccination rates actually seem to be highest in the ones that took a completely hands-off approach to COVID (SD, FL, IA, TX recently).  Perhaps this scared people who were on the fence enough to go out and get the shot?  Some of the stricter R Governor Trump states (ID, IN, OH, WV) aren't doing well at all in vaccination rates.  OH is at 53% at least one shot while PA is at 70%!

[Skill and Chance]

The state of Washington is seeing their worst covid surge yet, and hospitalizations have soared to a record high, especially in Spokane and king county

Really not looking good for the NE around the holidays then.

[Skill and Chance]

Reported deaths per 1 million pop using the 2020 Census instead of 2019 estimates (which Worldometer and CDC are still using)

1--New Jersey      2882
2--Mississippi       2755
3--New York         2705
4--Arizona            2606
5--Louisiana         2601
6--Massachusetts  2588
7--Rhode Island    2515
8--Alabama          2389
9--South Dakota   2321
10--Connecticut    2310 
11--Arkansas        2241

An update:

1--Mississippi       2968
2--New Jersey      2907
3--Louisiana         2773
4--New York         2725
5--Arizona            2668
6--Massachusetts  2605
7--Rhode Island    2536
8--Alabama           2468
9--Arkansas          2371
10--South Dakota  2342
11--Connecticut     2328
12--Pennsylvania   2193
13--Georgia           2184
14--Florida            2181
15--Indiana           2168
16--New Mexico     2161
17--Michigan         2159
18--South Carolina 2148
19--Nevada           2138
20--Illinois            2089
21--Oklahoma       2073
22--Texas              2031
National                2025
23--North Dakota   2012
24--Tennessee       1998

Oklahoma and Texas have enough momentum to knock Nevada and Illinois out of the top 20.  GA and FL will pass PA this week.  TN is the only state below the national avg that will likely move above it

It's remarkable just how badly Louisiana has done.  There would have been many reasons to hope it would have the best results in the South (the Catholic Church being a lot more pro-vaccine/masks/social distancing than most Southern Protestant churches, swamps creating island/peninsula style geography in much of the state, the governor being open to stricter measures than neighbors, etc.).  Some of this was from the initial wave in NOLA back on Mardi Gras 2020 before anyone knew enough, but most of the damage is now cumulative from the later outbreaks. 

[Skill and Chance]

The 7-day average of new cases in the U.S. is on a pretty clear downward slope again. Today was the lowest since Aug. 21.

In 8 days, it's fallen from 163,006 to 147,207.

There does appear to be a peak on September 1, but I'd give it a few weeks to see if there's a spike from labor day. Otherwise it's pretty clear that it's slowly going down, held back by a few states that are still on the rise.

Except for Labor Day messing with the averages (one day where there were only four days of reported cases) Georgia's seven day average has dropped every day this month.

Importantly, the COVID "wall" in the eastern, urbanized half of VA continues to hold.  That's encouraging for the North in the fall.  Remember, VA and FL vaccination rates are comparable on paper.

[Skill and Chance]

Update: Western/Central PA starting to lose control like WV and OH, cracks in the urban VA "wall"- even Arlington and Alexandria are going up now.  Also a possible cold weather outbreak in northern Maine?  Not great. 

[Skill and Chance]

It's getting very late in the game-vaccinated people who have done everything right need to be able to live normal lives. If one more month would save lives then sure, but this can't go on forever. Very soon, there is no alternative but to let it rip among the unvaccinated-if they die sorry but they should have taken more personal responsibility for their health.

Except then the virus will mutate into a form that is immune to all our vaccines. Plus the unvaccinated are filling up hospitals to the point that vaccinated people are indirectly dying from other things.

If you want restrictions to continue because of the possibility of mutations then you're essentially asking for eternal COVID restrictions, and I wish that people in your political sphere would just bite the bullet and admit that this is what you're calling for.

For me, the major remaining question is this winter.  If we get through the holiday gathering season without chaos in the healthcare system in the cold but highly vaccinated states, that's the signal that people should move on from COVID and resume their normal lives. 

[Skill and Chance]

The vast majority of people have moved on from the pandemic a while ago, only the hyper online and political hacks like us care about the restrictions

Large employers generally brought back some COVID workplace rules in August, so I don't think this is quite true yet. 

[Skill and Chance]

Parents who support online schooling should get a visit from CPS. They are setting their children up for social failure.

Those still in online school are generally immunocompromised. 

[Skill and Chance]

I just don't see how we will ever have another bad surge.

Delta basically infected most people who were unvaccinated.

90% of americans have either natural or vaccine antibodies.

I just don't see the math working out for another surge.

maybe a surge of breakthrough, mild cases.

I hope so, but I would be careful assuming this before we get through the winter.  Alaska currently has the worst outbreak in the country by almost a factor of 2 and it has Midwest in November/Northeast in December weather right now.  They are also only slightly below the national average in vaccination.

[Skill and Chance]

I just don't see how we will ever have another bad surge.

Delta basically infected most people who were unvaccinated.

90% of americans have either natural or vaccine antibodies.

I just don't see the math working out for another surge.

maybe a surge of breakthrough, mild cases.

The problem is that immunity doesn't appear to last forever. If it did, we could achieve herd immunity and everyone would just either get infected one time or else get vaccinated, and then we would be done with it forever. But immunity decreases over time. So people who have been previously infected will over time become infected again. And likewise with many people who are vaccinated (unless booster shots can solve that problem - we'll have to wait to find out the answer to that one).

Yes, it looks more and more like it will be a long, gradual decline into a mild illness rather than single threshold where it stops spreading and we declare victory.

The big remaining question is the holiday season in the colder states.

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/politico/status/1446445806366695429

On every policy issue, it seems, the Democrats hold the positions that are held by a majority of Americans. But it is very difficult for them to actually implement those policies.

I always say this, but it bears repeating: Americans do tend to agree with Democrats on policy, but disagree on personality which takes precedent when it comes time to elect politicians to enact those policies. And if it's not that, it's those issues ultimately not proving to matter for whom they want to vote for. It's just another one of many sad realities we have to live with in our country.

Messaging is everything, and it's so frustrating how bad the Democrats are at it.

To the contrary, the fact that policy issues polling has probably averaged 2:1 in favor of Dems for the past decade while there hasn't been an FDR style landslide in any of the actual elections means there is something wrong with the polling.  If the ~67/33 Dem policy issues are really ~57/43 due to nonresponse bias and statistically tied outside of California and New York, that would explain the actual election results.   

[Skill and Chance]

Greg Abbott issues executive order banning vaccine mandates for private businesses

https://www.texastribune.org/2021/10/11/texas-greg-abbott-covid-19-vaccine-mandate/

Not sure that he actually has the ability to do this, but nonetheless, what a POS.

Is that even lawful? Biden's EO concerns federal authorities and laws, over which Mr. Abbott has ZERO authority whatsoever.

We can have a debate over Covid restrictions and vaccines, policizing a deadly pandemic was one of the worst things the GOP has done.

It depends on whether the general Biden OSHA mandate holds up in court.  If it's upheld, it preempts any contrary state laws.  If the OSHA mandate fails, the constitutional basis for imposing conditions on corporations with federal contracts is separate and very strong.  Those mandates are almost certain to survive.  So in this hypothetical, I think Texas-based companies with federal contracts would be required to mandate vaccines, while at the same time, Texas-based companies without federal contracts would be prohibited from mandating them.  Weird.

[Skill and Chance]

Y’all do know that not getting a booster as an individual won’t help the situation in developing countries regarding a vaccine at all, right? Like do want you want with boosters, but you choosing to not get a booster as one person does nothing to change the situation.

Yes, whatever led to this situation, there's simply no viable way to get all the expiring excess doses here into remote parts of the world in time.