COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron
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Author Topic: COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron  (Read 526271 times)
Former President tack50
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« Reply #1725 on: November 27, 2020, 05:32:03 PM »

Our national debt is at a dangerous level. Therefore, I oppose any new massive stimulus packages.

and we have almost 28 TRILLION DOLLARS of national debt! No more major stimulus packages please. I am done with this bull.

There is literally 0 danger from the "national debt" to anything. The only danger is an imaginary danger that is infecting your mind and causing you to support sabotaging the economy and making people worse off due to insufficient spending power circulating through the economy.


Late, but Greece circa 2013 agrees with this statement Tongue

The key difference you are overlooking is that Greece does not control its own currency and have its own central bank, whereas the USA does. Greece is in essentially the same position as US states and municipalities are in, as well as in the same position as you, me, other individuals, and private companies. You and I (and US states, and Greece) do have financial constraints to how much debt we can take on, but the US government is in a very different position because it has a money printing machine. Do you have a money printing machine? No. If you did though, you could print as much of it as you wanted. That is the position the US Federal government is in. There is no financial constraint to how much money the US government can create. The only constraints on what the US government can do are questions of how much money it is wise to print/create. The risk of creating too much money is that at a certain point, if you make too much of it, there may be inflation. So the US government does and should have to worry about macroeconomic considerations like inflation and the unemployment rate when setting its fiscal policy, but there is no reason to ever worry that the USA will run out of money. Currently, since inflation is low and unemployment is high, that is a signal that it is macroeconomically warranted for the government to run larger budget deficits. Of course, if we spend too much and inflation gets too high (and if the reason it is getting too high is we don't have underutilized productive capacity), then that would call for smaller budget deficits. But that is emphatically not remotely the current situation, and it won't be the situation in the foreseeable future, in particular if the Republicans keep blocking additional much needed stimulus.

Ok, if your solution is "money printer go brrr" change that from 2013 Greece to 2013 Venezuela I guess. Or Weimar Germany.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #1726 on: November 27, 2020, 05:45:39 PM »
« Edited: November 27, 2020, 06:09:21 PM by parochial boy »

Our national debt is at a dangerous level. Therefore, I oppose any new massive stimulus packages.

and we have almost 28 TRILLION DOLLARS of national debt! No more major stimulus packages please. I am done with this bull.

There is literally 0 danger from the "national debt" to anything. The only danger is an imaginary danger that is infecting your mind and causing you to support sabotaging the economy and making people worse off due to insufficient spending power circulating through the economy.


Late, but Greece circa 2013 agrees with this statement Tongue

The key difference you are overlooking is that Greece does not control its own currency and have its own central bank, whereas the USA does. Greece is in essentially the same position as US states and municipalities are in, as well as in the same position as you, me, other individuals, and private companies. You and I (and US states, and Greece) do have financial constraints to how much debt we can take on, but the US government is in a very different position because it has a money printing machine. Do you have a money printing machine? No. If you did though, you could print as much of it as you wanted. That is the position the US Federal government is in. There is no financial constraint to how much money the US government can create. The only constraints on what the US government can do are questions of how much money it is wise to print/create. The risk of creating too much money is that at a certain point, if you make too much of it, there may be inflation. So the US government does and should have to worry about macroeconomic considerations like inflation and the unemployment rate when setting its fiscal policy, but there is no reason to ever worry that the USA will run out of money. Currently, since inflation is low and unemployment is high, that is a signal that it is macroeconomically warranted for the government to run larger budget deficits. Of course, if we spend too much and inflation gets too high (and if the reason it is getting too high is we don't have underutilized productive capacity), then that would call for smaller budget deficits. But that is emphatically not remotely the current situation, and it won't be the situation in the foreseeable future, in particular if the Republicans keep blocking additional much needed stimulus.

Ok, if your solution is "money printer go brrr" change that from 2013 Greece to 2013 Venezuela I guess. Or Weimar Germany.

Actually, little known secret - most money is not created by central banks, but by commercial banks, and monetary creation is a prerequisite for economic growth. Point being, at the this moment at time, the pressure is deflationary. When the economy is not turning at full capacity, injecting money won't lead to excessive inflation, as monetary injections would only cause excessive inflation when there is no capacity in the economy to increase production to meet the extra demand generated by an increased monetary supply. That clearly isn't the case at the moment, when the proverbial factory has stopped running and when the commercial banking system's monetary creation isn't working because it has no incentive to risk lending into an economy that is in recession and might therefore not be able to pay back the debt. It's a hell of a different situation to Weimar Germany's inheritance of the war machine or Venezuela's crashing oil prices. You need the state to be putting money into the economy, whether through the central bank or through debt. Inflation is not a worry right now.

As for debt, well you're Spanish, you literally come from the country that had a budget surplus and the lowest public debt in the EU - even better than Germany - in 2008, and still got stung almost as hard as anyone else by a sovereign debt crisis that you did a better job than literally anybody else - again, including Germany - in preparing for. The problem isn't debt, it's being vulnerable, and now is not a time to make yourselves vulnerable by believing in voodoe economics about budget surpluses or discredited monetary policy.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
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« Reply #1727 on: November 27, 2020, 06:02:08 PM »

Ok, if your solution is "money printer go brrr" change that from 2013 Greece to 2013 Venezuela I guess. Or Weimar Germany.

You seem to be selectively ignoring the fact that I didn't say that the money printer should go brrr to infinity, but rather I said that it should go brrr up until the point when we don't have unutilized productive capacity and when inflation becomes an issue.

In the case of Weimar Germany, they had hyperinflation because they did not stop the money printer from going brrr at the point when inflation became an issue. The main reason for this is that Germany had a lot of reparations payments due to the Versailles treaty which were totally crazy macroeconomically. Importantly, the German debt was denominated in foreign currencies, not in the German currency, so in order for Germany to pay debt denominated in dollars or pounds, it had to keep printing more of its reichsmarks, which had the effect of weakening the exchange rate of reichsmarks to other foreign currencies - and that set in place a vicious circle where in order to keep paying the foreign currency denominated debt, they had to print even more reichsmarks, which then caused the exchange rate to fall even further, etc.

If the USA similarly had a bunch of debt denominated in foreign currencies like the Yen or the Euro or something, then we could have a similar sort of issue. But instead, the US "national debt" is denominated in dollars (the USA's own currency).

Similarly to Weimar Germany, Greek debt is denominated in a foreign currency (the Euro), which similarly led to problems. It would have kept getting worse, but the European Central Bank instead fortunately abandoned its poorly designed system/policy and began buying the Greek bonds and bonds of other countries, which effectively removed the financial constraints on Greece issuing more bonds (but only to the limited extent that was allowed and to the extent that the ECB was willing to keep buying more bonds).

This is the underlying reason for the weakness of the European economy over the past 20 or so years - insufficiently large budget European deficits which are necessitated by the fact that they don't have their own currencies. And incidentally, this is also one of the causes of large US government budget deficits, because small budget deficits in Europe tend to cause European countries to run trade surpluses with the rest of the world (including the USA), which results in US government budget deficits.

I won't comment in particular on Venezuela, because I have not really followed the situation there in detail, but usually when Latin American countries get into trouble like this, they have taken on a lot of foreign-currency (US dollar) denominated debt, and often they are commodity exporters heavily reliant on a single commodity price (e.g. oil exporters) and get hit by a sudden drop in the price of oil. From what I have heard, the situation may also have resulted from other government policies of the Maduro government in Venezuela to some degree or other, but again, I have not followed the situation enough to be able to judge how much that is the case.
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #1728 on: November 27, 2020, 07:59:03 PM »

Actually, little known secret - most money is not created by central banks, but by commercial banks, and monetary creation is a prerequisite for economic growth. Point being, at the this moment at time, the pressure is deflationary. When the economy is not turning at full capacity, injecting money won't lead to excessive inflation, as monetary injections would only cause excessive inflation when there is no capacity in the economy to increase production to meet the extra demand generated by an increased monetary supply. That clearly isn't the case at the moment, when the proverbial factory has stopped running and when the commercial banking system's monetary creation isn't working because it has no incentive to risk lending into an economy that is in recession and might therefore not be able to pay back the debt. It's a hell of a different situation to Weimar Germany's inheritance of the war machine or Venezuela's crashing oil prices. You need the state to be putting money into the economy, whether through the central bank or through debt. Inflation is not a worry right now.

As for debt, well you're Spanish, you literally come from the country that had a budget surplus and the lowest public debt in the EU - even better than Germany - in 2008, and still got stung almost as hard as anyone else by a sovereign debt crisis that you did a better job than literally anybody else - again, including Germany - in preparing for. The problem isn't debt, it's being vulnerable, and now is not a time to make yourselves vulnerable by believing in voodoe economics about budget surpluses or discredited monetary policy.

At the risk of deraling the thread...

I mean, yes inflation is low enough that printing money is a decent idea, but it is not one that can be sustained indefinitely.

As for the Spanish comparison, yes, Spain circa 2008 had pretty good finances, but it pissed them all away in absolutely awful stimulus programs that did little to actually stimulate the economy (not to mention the double dip recession that all of Europe went through)

I actually have a positive opinion of PM Zapatero, but his handling of the economic recession was, by far the worst in all of Europe outside of Greece (who was making up its economic numbers so it's not a fair comparison)
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crazy jimmie
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« Reply #1729 on: November 27, 2020, 07:59:12 PM »

I know I went to far with the tone of my posts last week. But my positions of covid19 mitigation measures remain the same.

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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #1730 on: November 27, 2020, 09:25:01 PM »

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 11/27 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.
  • IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.
  • IE: What's the overall change in the total?

Older Numbers (Hidden in spoiler mode to make the post more compact)


11/15: <Sunday>
  • Cases: 11,366,379 (+140,341 | ΔW Change: ↑32.82% | Σ Increase: ↑1.25%)
  • Deaths: 251,832 (+576 | ΔW Change: ↑12.72% | Σ Increase: ↑0.23%)

11/16: <M>
  • Cases: 11,538,057 (+171,678 | ΔW Change: ↑28.62% | Σ Increase: ↑1.51%)
  • Deaths: 252,651 (+819 | ΔW Change: ↑20.44% | Σ Increase: ↑0.33%)

11/17: <T>
  • Cases: 11,695,550 (+157,493 | ΔW Change: ↑14.77% | Σ Increase: ↑1.36%)
  • Deaths: 254,253 (+1,602 | ΔW Change: ↑18.58% | Σ Increase: ↑0.63%)

11/18: <W>
  • Cases: 11,873,727 (+178,177 | ΔW Change: ↑19.15% | Σ Increase: ↑1.52%)
  • Deaths: 256,254 (+2,001 | ΔW Change: ↑25.14% | Σ Increase: ↑0.79%)

11/19: <Þ>
  • Cases: 12,068,003 (+194,276 | ΔW Change: ↑17.59% | Σ Increase: ↑1.64%)
  • Deaths: 258,302 (+2,048 | ΔW Change: ↑72.54% | Σ Increase: ↑0.80%)

11/20: <F>
  • Cases: 12,274,726 (+206,723 | ΔW Change: ↑8.56% | Σ Increase: ↑1.71%)
  • Deaths: 260,283 (+1,981 | ΔW Change: ↑42.52% | Σ Increase: ↑0.77%)

11/21: <S>
  • Cases: 12,450,666 (+175,940 | ΔW Change: ↑8.82% | Σ Increase: ↑1.43%)
  • Deaths: 261,790 (+1,507 | ΔW Change: ↑17.64% | Σ Increase: ↑0.58%)

11/22: <Sunday>
  • Cases: 12,588,661 (+137,995 | ΔW Change: ↓1.67% | Σ Increase: ↑1.11%)
  • Deaths: 262,696 (+906 | ΔW Change: ↑57.29% | Σ Increase: ↑0.35%)

11/23: <M>
  • Cases: 12,777,174 (+188,513 | ΔW Change: ↑9.81% | Σ Increase: ↑1.50%)
  • Deaths: 263,687 (+991 | ΔW Change: ↑21.00% | Σ Increase: ↑0.38%)

11/24: <T>
  • Cases: 12,955,007 (+177,833 | ΔW Change: ↑12.91% | Σ Increase: ↑1.39%)
  • Deaths: 265,891 (+2,204 | ΔW Change: ↑37.58% | Σ Increase: ↑0.84%)

11/25: <W>
  • Cases: 13,137,962 (+182,955 | ΔW Change: ↑2.68% | Σ Increase: ↑1.41%)
  • Deaths: 268,219 (+2,328 | ΔW Change: ↑16.34% | Σ Increase: ↑0.88%)

11/26 (Yesterday): <Þ-Holiday>
  • Cases: 13,248,676 (+110,714 | ΔW Change: ↓43.01% | Σ Increase: ↑0.84%)
  • Deaths: 269,555 (+1,336 | ΔW Change: ↓34.77% | Σ Increase: ↑0.50%)

11/27 (Today): <F>
  • Cases: 13,454,254 (+205,578 | ΔW Change: ↓0.55% | Σ Increase: ↑1.55%)
  • Deaths: 271,026 (+1,471 | ΔW Change: ↓25.74% | Σ Increase: ↑0.55%)
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jfern
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« Reply #1731 on: November 27, 2020, 10:30:49 PM »

Wait, we almost broke the record on a holiday? Next week's numbers are going to be horrific.
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Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin
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« Reply #1732 on: November 27, 2020, 10:32:42 PM »

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emailking
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« Reply #1733 on: November 27, 2020, 11:25:16 PM »

Wait, we almost broke the record on a holiday? Next week's numbers are going to be horrific.

I don't think so. On worldometers they reallocated a bunch of cases to Thursday. They have 150K for Thanksgiving and 164K for today.
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Pericles
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« Reply #1734 on: November 28, 2020, 04:03:20 AM »

Is it now too late and New York's second wave is happening? Sad They were doing so well.
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Hnv1
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« Reply #1735 on: November 28, 2020, 04:12:58 AM »


Undertesting mainly.

Brazilian death rate should be quite similar to American one as well
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Crumpets
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« Reply #1736 on: November 28, 2020, 08:07:45 AM »

Anybody know what's going on along the Texas-Louisiana border? Looking at the NYT map, counties on the Texas side of the border have about 1/10th the level of new cases as the counties immediately next to them on the Louisiana side.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #1737 on: November 28, 2020, 08:55:52 AM »

Actually, little known secret - most money is not created by central banks, but by commercial banks, and monetary creation is a prerequisite for economic growth. Point being, at the this moment at time, the pressure is deflationary. When the economy is not turning at full capacity, injecting money won't lead to excessive inflation, as monetary injections would only cause excessive inflation when there is no capacity in the economy to increase production to meet the extra demand generated by an increased monetary supply. That clearly isn't the case at the moment, when the proverbial factory has stopped running and when the commercial banking system's monetary creation isn't working because it has no incentive to risk lending into an economy that is in recession and might therefore not be able to pay back the debt. It's a hell of a different situation to Weimar Germany's inheritance of the war machine or Venezuela's crashing oil prices. You need the state to be putting money into the economy, whether through the central bank or through debt. Inflation is not a worry right now.

As for debt, well you're Spanish, you literally come from the country that had a budget surplus and the lowest public debt in the EU - even better than Germany - in 2008, and still got stung almost as hard as anyone else by a sovereign debt crisis that you did a better job than literally anybody else - again, including Germany - in preparing for. The problem isn't debt, it's being vulnerable, and now is not a time to make yourselves vulnerable by believing in voodoe economics about budget surpluses or discredited monetary policy.

At the risk of deraling the thread...

I mean, yes inflation is low enough that printing money is a decent idea, but it is not one that can be sustained indefinitely.

As for the Spanish comparison, yes, Spain circa 2008 had pretty good finances, but it pissed them all away in absolutely awful stimulus programs that did little to actually stimulate the economy (not to mention the double dip recession that all of Europe went through)

I actually have a positive opinion of PM Zapatero, but his handling of the economic recession was, by far the worst in all of Europe outside of Greece (who was making up its economic numbers so it's not a fair comparison)

I dare say it's a more interesting subject than going on and on about Covid Tongue Nobody is really suggesting printing money forever and ever, but one of the lessons we can take out of the Euro crisis is that not having the Central Bank be able to fund government spending / create money to buy back bonds is insane economic policy. That was precisely the problem with the ECB; the German ordoliberal ideology essentially meant the ECB had no ability to bail out struggling economies by bond buy backs - which meant having to borrow further and exacerbating the problem and creating a totally unneccessary lost decade for Southern Europe. All because the Germans are traumatised by what happened in Weimar and tried to insist on keeping on applying the same solutions to totally different situations.

One of Spain's biggest problems in particular was the massive housing bubble, coupled with the completely mad fact of it being impossible to default on your mortgage (ish, you can, the bank reposseses your home, but you still have to make up the difference that they can't recoup, after a housing bubble bursts... ouch...). This meant people would lose their homes but still have their disposable income taken up by paying off the debt, rendering the stimulus programmes ineffective. But it also mean the banks where in a fictitious zombie situation where they were claiming they weren't bankrupt when they essentially were, and the state blew an enourmous amount of money on trying to prop them up.

The worry right now is that central banks printing money combined with very little demand in the economy is creating a similar bubble for second-hand assets (the stock market especially), which will eventually pop just as the housing bubble in Spain did. Simply because there is very little incentive to invest in the real economy when there is essentially no demand. That's why it is absolutely that an institution like the state is able to actually pump demand, and get people to actually buy things, into the economy again.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #1738 on: November 28, 2020, 11:56:41 PM »

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 11/28 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.
  • IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.
  • IE: What's the overall change in the total?

Older Numbers (Hidden in spoiler mode to make the post more compact)


11/15: <Sunday>
  • Cases: 11,366,379 (+140,341 | ΔW Change: ↑32.82% | Σ Increase: ↑1.25%)
  • Deaths: 251,832 (+576 | ΔW Change: ↑12.72% | Σ Increase: ↑0.23%)

11/16: <M>
  • Cases: 11,538,057 (+171,678 | ΔW Change: ↑28.62% | Σ Increase: ↑1.51%)
  • Deaths: 252,651 (+819 | ΔW Change: ↑20.44% | Σ Increase: ↑0.33%)

11/17: <T>
  • Cases: 11,695,550 (+157,493 | ΔW Change: ↑14.77% | Σ Increase: ↑1.36%)
  • Deaths: 254,253 (+1,602 | ΔW Change: ↑18.58% | Σ Increase: ↑0.63%)

11/18: <W>
  • Cases: 11,873,727 (+178,177 | ΔW Change: ↑19.15% | Σ Increase: ↑1.52%)
  • Deaths: 256,254 (+2,001 | ΔW Change: ↑25.14% | Σ Increase: ↑0.79%)

11/19: <Þ>
  • Cases: 12,068,003 (+194,276 | ΔW Change: ↑17.59% | Σ Increase: ↑1.64%)
  • Deaths: 258,302 (+2,048 | ΔW Change: ↑72.54% | Σ Increase: ↑0.80%)

11/20: <F>
  • Cases: 12,274,726 (+206,723 | ΔW Change: ↑8.56% | Σ Increase: ↑1.71%)
  • Deaths: 260,283 (+1,981 | ΔW Change: ↑42.52% | Σ Increase: ↑0.77%)

11/21: <S>
  • Cases: 12,450,666 (+175,940 | ΔW Change: ↑8.82% | Σ Increase: ↑1.43%)
  • Deaths: 261,790 (+1,507 | ΔW Change: ↑17.64% | Σ Increase: ↑0.58%)

11/22: <Sunday>
  • Cases: 12,588,661 (+137,995 | ΔW Change: ↓1.67% | Σ Increase: ↑1.11%)
  • Deaths: 262,696 (+906 | ΔW Change: ↑57.29% | Σ Increase: ↑0.35%)

11/23: <M>
  • Cases: 12,777,174 (+188,513 | ΔW Change: ↑9.81% | Σ Increase: ↑1.50%)
  • Deaths: 263,687 (+991 | ΔW Change: ↑21.00% | Σ Increase: ↑0.38%)

11/24: <T>
  • Cases: 12,955,007 (+177,833 | ΔW Change: ↑12.91% | Σ Increase: ↑1.39%)
  • Deaths: 265,891 (+2,204 | ΔW Change: ↑37.58% | Σ Increase: ↑0.84%)

11/25: <W>
  • Cases: 13,137,962 (+182,955 | ΔW Change: ↑2.68% | Σ Increase: ↑1.41%)
  • Deaths: 268,219 (+2,328 | ΔW Change: ↑16.34% | Σ Increase: ↑0.88%)

11/26: <Þ-Holiday>
  • Cases: 13,248,676 (+110,714 | ΔW Change: ↓43.01% | Σ Increase: ↑0.84%)
  • Deaths: 269,555 (+1,336 | ΔW Change: ↓34.77% | Σ Increase: ↑0.50%)

11/27 (Yesterday): <F>
  • Cases: 13,454,254 (+205,578 | ΔW Change: ↓0.55% | Σ Increase: ↑1.55%)
  • Deaths: 271,026 (+1,471 | ΔW Change: ↓25.74% | Σ Increase: ↑0.55%)

11/28 (Today): <S>
  • Cases: 13,610,357 (+156,103 | ΔW Change: ↓11.27% | Σ Increase: ↑1.16%)
  • Deaths: 272,254 (+1,228 | ΔW Change: ↓18.51% | Σ Increase: ↑0.45%)
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It’s so Joever
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« Reply #1739 on: November 29, 2020, 05:11:32 PM »

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 11/28 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.
  • IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.
  • IE: What's the overall change in the total?

Older Numbers (Hidden in spoiler mode to make the post more compact)


11/15: <Sunday>
  • Cases: 11,366,379 (+140,341 | ΔW Change: ↑32.82% | Σ Increase: ↑1.25%)
  • Deaths: 251,832 (+576 | ΔW Change: ↑12.72% | Σ Increase: ↑0.23%)

11/16: <M>
  • Cases: 11,538,057 (+171,678 | ΔW Change: ↑28.62% | Σ Increase: ↑1.51%)
  • Deaths: 252,651 (+819 | ΔW Change: ↑20.44% | Σ Increase: ↑0.33%)

11/17: <T>
  • Cases: 11,695,550 (+157,493 | ΔW Change: ↑14.77% | Σ Increase: ↑1.36%)
  • Deaths: 254,253 (+1,602 | ΔW Change: ↑18.58% | Σ Increase: ↑0.63%)

11/18: <W>
  • Cases: 11,873,727 (+178,177 | ΔW Change: ↑19.15% | Σ Increase: ↑1.52%)
  • Deaths: 256,254 (+2,001 | ΔW Change: ↑25.14% | Σ Increase: ↑0.79%)

11/19: <Þ>
  • Cases: 12,068,003 (+194,276 | ΔW Change: ↑17.59% | Σ Increase: ↑1.64%)
  • Deaths: 258,302 (+2,048 | ΔW Change: ↑72.54% | Σ Increase: ↑0.80%)

11/20: <F>
  • Cases: 12,274,726 (+206,723 | ΔW Change: ↑8.56% | Σ Increase: ↑1.71%)
  • Deaths: 260,283 (+1,981 | ΔW Change: ↑42.52% | Σ Increase: ↑0.77%)

11/21: <S>
  • Cases: 12,450,666 (+175,940 | ΔW Change: ↑8.82% | Σ Increase: ↑1.43%)
  • Deaths: 261,790 (+1,507 | ΔW Change: ↑17.64% | Σ Increase: ↑0.58%)

11/22: <Sunday>
  • Cases: 12,588,661 (+137,995 | ΔW Change: ↓1.67% | Σ Increase: ↑1.11%)
  • Deaths: 262,696 (+906 | ΔW Change: ↑57.29% | Σ Increase: ↑0.35%)

11/23: <M>
  • Cases: 12,777,174 (+188,513 | ΔW Change: ↑9.81% | Σ Increase: ↑1.50%)
  • Deaths: 263,687 (+991 | ΔW Change: ↑21.00% | Σ Increase: ↑0.38%)

11/24: <T>
  • Cases: 12,955,007 (+177,833 | ΔW Change: ↑12.91% | Σ Increase: ↑1.39%)
  • Deaths: 265,891 (+2,204 | ΔW Change: ↑37.58% | Σ Increase: ↑0.84%)

11/25: <W>
  • Cases: 13,137,962 (+182,955 | ΔW Change: ↑2.68% | Σ Increase: ↑1.41%)
  • Deaths: 268,219 (+2,328 | ΔW Change: ↑16.34% | Σ Increase: ↑0.88%)

11/26: <Þ-Holiday>
  • Cases: 13,248,676 (+110,714 | ΔW Change: ↓43.01% | Σ Increase: ↑0.84%)
  • Deaths: 269,555 (+1,336 | ΔW Change: ↓34.77% | Σ Increase: ↑0.50%)

11/27 (Yesterday): <F>
  • Cases: 13,454,254 (+205,578 | ΔW Change: ↓0.55% | Σ Increase: ↑1.55%)
  • Deaths: 271,026 (+1,471 | ΔW Change: ↓25.74% | Σ Increase: ↑0.55%)

11/28 (Today): <S>
  • Cases: 13,610,357 (+156,103 | ΔW Change: ↓11.27% | Σ Increase: ↑1.16%)
  • Deaths: 272,254 (+1,228 | ΔW Change: ↓18.51% | Σ Increase: ↑0.45%)
Finally a bit of good news.
That being said, whether this is just Holiday week lag still remains to be seen. If we have a positive trend by Wednesday, I say we can at least say there has been a slight decline (who knows how Thanksgiving will change it)
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #1740 on: November 29, 2020, 09:14:04 PM »

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 11/29 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.
  • IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.
  • IE: What's the overall change in the total?

Older Numbers (Hidden in spoiler mode to make the post more compact)


11/22: <Sunday>
  • Cases: 12,588,661 (+137,995 | ΔW Change: ↓1.67% | Σ Increase: ↑1.11%)
  • Deaths: 262,696 (+906 | ΔW Change: ↑57.29% | Σ Increase: ↑0.35%)

11/23: <M>
  • Cases: 12,777,174 (+188,513 | ΔW Change: ↑9.81% | Σ Increase: ↑1.50%)
  • Deaths: 263,687 (+991 | ΔW Change: ↑21.00% | Σ Increase: ↑0.38%)

11/24: <T>
  • Cases: 12,955,007 (+177,833 | ΔW Change: ↑12.91% | Σ Increase: ↑1.39%)
  • Deaths: 265,891 (+2,204 | ΔW Change: ↑37.58% | Σ Increase: ↑0.84%)

11/25: <W>
  • Cases: 13,137,962 (+182,955 | ΔW Change: ↑2.68% | Σ Increase: ↑1.41%)
  • Deaths: 268,219 (+2,328 | ΔW Change: ↑16.34% | Σ Increase: ↑0.88%)

11/26: <Þ-Holiday>
  • Cases: 13,248,676 (+110,714 | ΔW Change: ↓43.01% | Σ Increase: ↑0.84%)
  • Deaths: 269,555 (+1,336 | ΔW Change: ↓34.77% | Σ Increase: ↑0.50%)

11/27: <F>
  • Cases: 13,454,254 (+205,578 | ΔW Change: ↓0.55% | Σ Increase: ↑1.55%)
  • Deaths: 271,026 (+1,471 | ΔW Change: ↓25.74% | Σ Increase: ↑0.55%)

11/28 (Yesterday): <S>
  • Cases: 13,610,357 (+156,103 | ΔW Change: ↓11.27% | Σ Increase: ↑1.16%)
  • Deaths: 272,254 (+1,228 | ΔW Change: ↓18.51% | Σ Increase: ↑0.45%)

11/29 (Today): <Sunday>
  • Cases: 13,750,404 (+140,047 | ΔW Change: ↑1.49% | Σ Increase: ↑1.03%)
  • Deaths: 273,072 (+818 | ΔW Change: ↓9.71% | Σ Increase: ↑0.30%)
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #1741 on: November 30, 2020, 05:47:58 PM »


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Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas
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« Reply #1742 on: November 30, 2020, 05:53:50 PM »




If this plays out, maybe one of the greatest achievements in modern scientific history.
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Blue3
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« Reply #1743 on: November 30, 2020, 06:39:52 PM »

Depressing graphs of the day:

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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #1744 on: November 30, 2020, 07:31:23 PM »


So in order for the #s on the second graph to make sense, I guess that would be *cumulative* deaths so far, rather than deaths per day?  That would explain why it's always going up.  Except Spain had a brief drop in May, which doesn't make sense unless people can come back to life.  I guess that was just a reporting error that got corrected?
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It’s so Joever
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« Reply #1745 on: November 30, 2020, 07:33:46 PM »

The good news is that we have made historic progress on a vaccine for a virus we didn’t even know existed just a year ago.
This does show that our scientific community really can achieve incredible feats when they collaborate.

Also, hopefully Covid makes people more aware of potential pandemics in general.
One thing I have been concerned about for years is the lack of new antibiotics and the accompanied increase of antibiotic-resistant bacteria. If Covid forces us to actually pay attention to these types of health issues, it will have been a net benefit in the long term.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #1746 on: November 30, 2020, 08:13:59 PM »

Over the weekend, Governor Polis of Colorado contracted coronavirus. As far as I am aware, at least four governors have contracted the virus up to this point: Polis, Parson, Stitt, and Gordon. Gov. DeWine of Ohio had a false alarm with regards to the virus. Are there any other Governors that have contracted it?
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #1747 on: November 30, 2020, 08:37:51 PM »

Wow, pathetic numbers from the US. The UK beat them and Italy already caught them up. Total losers.

And Spain number 1 as always and as we should be  Cool

/S
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #1748 on: November 30, 2020, 09:26:17 PM »

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 11/30 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.
  • IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.
  • IE: What's the overall change in the total?

Older Numbers (Hidden in spoiler mode to make the post more compact)


11/22: <Sunday>
  • Cases: 12,588,661 (+137,995 | ΔW Change: ↓1.67% | Σ Increase: ↑1.11%)
  • Deaths: 262,696 (+906 | ΔW Change: ↑57.29% | Σ Increase: ↑0.35%)

11/23: <M>
  • Cases: 12,777,174 (+188,513 | ΔW Change: ↑9.81% | Σ Increase: ↑1.50%)
  • Deaths: 263,687 (+991 | ΔW Change: ↑21.00% | Σ Increase: ↑0.38%)

11/24: <T>
  • Cases: 12,955,007 (+177,833 | ΔW Change: ↑12.91% | Σ Increase: ↑1.39%)
  • Deaths: 265,891 (+2,204 | ΔW Change: ↑37.58% | Σ Increase: ↑0.84%)

11/25: <W>
  • Cases: 13,137,962 (+182,955 | ΔW Change: ↑2.68% | Σ Increase: ↑1.41%)
  • Deaths: 268,219 (+2,328 | ΔW Change: ↑16.34% | Σ Increase: ↑0.88%)

11/26: <Þ-Holiday>
  • Cases: 13,248,676 (+110,714 | ΔW Change: ↓43.01% | Σ Increase: ↑0.84%)
  • Deaths: 269,555 (+1,336 | ΔW Change: ↓34.77% | Σ Increase: ↑0.50%)

11/27: <F>
  • Cases: 13,454,254 (+205,578 | ΔW Change: ↓0.55% | Σ Increase: ↑1.55%)
  • Deaths: 271,026 (+1,471 | ΔW Change: ↓25.74% | Σ Increase: ↑0.55%)

11/28: <S>
  • Cases: 13,610,357 (+156,103 | ΔW Change: ↓11.27% | Σ Increase: ↑1.16%)
  • Deaths: 272,254 (+1,228 | ΔW Change: ↓18.51% | Σ Increase: ↑0.45%)

11/29 (Yesterday): <Sunday>
  • Cases: 13,750,404 (+140,047 | ΔW Change: ↑1.49% | Σ Increase: ↑1.03%)
  • Deaths: 273,072 (+818 | ΔW Change: ↓9.71% | Σ Increase: ↑0.30%)

11/30 (Today): <M>
  • Cases: 13,919,870 (+169,466 | ΔW Change: ↓10.10% | Σ Increase: ↑1.23%)
  • Deaths: 274,332 (+1,260 | ΔW Change: ↑27.14% | Σ Increase: ↑0.46%)
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #1749 on: November 30, 2020, 09:47:32 PM »

The good news is that we have made historic progress on a vaccine for a virus we didn’t even know existed just a year ago.
This does show that our scientific community really can achieve incredible feats when they collaborate.

Also, hopefully Covid makes people more aware of potential pandemics in general.
One thing I have been concerned about for years is the lack of new antibiotics and the accompanied increase of antibiotic-resistant bacteria. If Covid forces us to actually pay attention to these types of health issues, it will have been a net benefit in the long term.

Did you hear about Polis' diagnosis with coronavirus? And do you know if there's been any other governors recently who've gotten it, besides him?
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