COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1262575447134568448

This is a good point.  I think we could reach a status quo where the smaller types of gatherings are mostly open (with some precautions) while large gatherings such as sporting events are still a no-no until a vaccine is available.

Concerts are a no no, but sporting events could reduce capacity and seal off some seats in an irregular pattern to create some distance while also allowing fans to attend.

Except seating isn't even half the issue. You got queuing up in ticket and admission lines, contact whatever people leave their seats, waiting in concession stand lines, going to the restroom, Etc. Not to mention the price per seat when only one seat every 6 ft is for sale is going to be astronomical. I'm not that interested in reopening sporting events to put the maintenance staff Health at risk for increasingly wealthy fans to be able to watch live.

I'm not saying any solution has to be foolproof, but this one is full of major problems.

[Grassroots]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1262575447134568448

This is a good point.  I think we could reach a status quo where the smaller types of gatherings are mostly open (with some precautions) while large gatherings such as sporting events are still a no-no until a vaccine is available.

Concerts are a no no, but sporting events could reduce capacity and seal off some seats in an irregular pattern to create some distance while also allowing fans to attend.

Except seating isn't even half the issue. You got queuing up in ticket and admission lines, contact whatever people leave their seats, waiting in concession stand lines, going to the restroom, Etc. Not to mention the price per seat when only one seat every 6 ft is for sale is going to be astronomical. I'm not that interested in reopening sporting events to put the maintenance staff Health at risk for increasingly wealthy fans to be able to watch live.

I'm not saying any solution has to be foolproof, but this one is full of major problems.

There's going to be maybe no more than 200 cases per day nationwide by september, I see no reason why any measures are necessary at all at that point in time.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1262575447134568448

This is a good point.  I think we could reach a status quo where the smaller types of gatherings are mostly open (with some precautions) while large gatherings such as sporting events are still a no-no until a vaccine is available.

Concerts are a no no, but sporting events could reduce capacity and seal off some seats in an irregular pattern to create some distance while also allowing fans to attend.

Except seating isn't even half the issue. You got queuing up in ticket and admission lines, contact whatever people leave their seats, waiting in concession stand lines, going to the restroom, Etc. Not to mention the price per seat when only one seat every 6 ft is for sale is going to be astronomical. I'm not that interested in reopening sporting events to put the maintenance staff Health at risk for increasingly wealthy fans to be able to watch live.

I'm not saying any solution has to be foolproof, but this one is full of major problems.

There's going to be maybe no more than 200 cases per day nationwide by september, I see no reason why any measures are necessary at all at that point in time.

That is absolutely not a sure thing, especially if normies throw caution to the wind and interpret "reopening" as "back to normal."

[Bandit3 the Worker]

One of the lowest priorities for reopening ought to be amusement parks.

I know things have got to reopen, and I've enjoyed amusement parks as much as anyone. But that should be a lower priority than parks, beaches, most businesses, and most outdoor spaces.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Kayleigh McEnany has confirmed that Donald Trump is taking hydroxychloroquine:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/may/19/trump-hydroxychloroquine-covid-19-white-house


Mike Pence, however, is not taking hydroxychloroquine:

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/unlike-trump-pence-says-he-s-not-taking-hydroxychloroquine-n1210541

[Grassroots]

One of the lowest priorities for reopening ought to be amusement parks.

I know things have got to reopen, and I've enjoyed amusement parks as much as anyone. But that should be a lower priority than parks, beaches, most businesses, and most outdoor spaces.

Actually I would consider them a priority. This is an industry that is on shaky ground and has been for quite some time. Either we bail them out, or they reopen in June with some safety measures such as ride sanitation and reduced capacity. The alternative is the parks closing by the tens.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

There's going to be maybe no more than 200 cases per day nationwide by september, I see no reason why any measures are necessary at all at that point in time.

What makes you say that?

[Grassroots]

There's going to be maybe no more than 200 cases per day nationwide by september, I see no reason why any measures are necessary at all at that point in time.

What makes you say that?

By that point the virus would have been blasted by summer heat for three months.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

There's going to be maybe no more than 200 cases per day nationwide by september, I see no reason why any measures are necessary at all at that point in time.

What makes you say that?

By that point the virus would have been blasted by summer heat for three months.

There is absolutely no proof that summer heat will have a considerable influence on the spread of the virus. On the other hand, the virus has already spread in places with hotter and more humid wheather. There is no indication that summer weather will help us.

[GeorgiaModerate]

There's going to be maybe no more than 200 cases per day nationwide by september, I see no reason why any measures are necessary at all at that point in time.

What makes you say that?

By that point the virus would have been blasted by summer heat for three months.

There is absolutely no proof that summer heat will have a considerable influence on the spread of the virus. On the other hand, the virus has already spread in places with hotter and more humid wheather. There is no indication that summer weather will help us.

The truth here is probably somewhere in the middle (as it usually is).  There is some evidence that UV rays and higher temperature & humidity shorten the virus's survival time.  But neither does it wipe it out completely, as shown by Singapore and other examples.

[President Johnson]

There's going to be maybe no more than 200 cases per day nationwide by september, I see no reason why any measures are necessary at all at that point in time.

What makes you say that?

By that point the virus would have been blasted by summer heat for three months.

There are studies that have debunked this theory months ago. Warmer temperatures do have a minimal impact, but not that much overall. My belief is that the numbers will somewhat stabilize in June, but a second wave will hit in October since vast majorities of populations lack immunity.

The virus is too resistant and far spread that I can ever be contained again without vaccine. Or through herd immunity if the spread happens extremely fast (causing the healthcare system to collapse with many more deaths). Unfortunately, I have to say.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

There's going to be maybe no more than 200 cases per day nationwide by september, I see no reason why any measures are necessary at all at that point in time.

What makes you say that?

By that point the virus would have been blasted by summer heat for three months.

There is absolutely no proof that summer heat will have a considerable influence on the spread of the virus. On the other hand, the virus has already spread in places with hotter and more humid wheather. There is no indication that summer weather will help us.

The truth here is probably somewhere in the middle (as it usually is).  There is some evidence that UV rays and higher temperature & humidity shorten the virus's survival time.  But neither does it wipe it out completely, as shown by Singapore and other examples.

Yes, it is possible that summer will slow it down. But there is no indication that 200 new cases per day is a reasonable number that could be reached with summer heat (while states begin to re-open!), especially when the US is still at 15,000 to 25,000 cases per day.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

One of the lowest priorities for reopening ought to be amusement parks.

I know things have got to reopen, and I've enjoyed amusement parks as much as anyone. But that should be a lower priority than parks, beaches, most businesses, and most outdoor spaces.

Actually I would consider them a priority. This is an industry that is on shaky ground and has been for quite some time. Either we bail them out, or they reopen in June with some safety measures such as ride sanitation and reduced capacity. The alternative is the parks closing by the tens.

The majority of them are in states that will allow them to open, or are stable enough that no one has to worry about them long-term (Disney, Universal, Busch). It's mostly the California parks that could hit a crisis.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Actually, this would explain a lot:

https://twitter.com/michelleinbklyn/status/1262496219194064902

Yeah, about that...

https://twitter.com/mviser/status/1262775735682502658

[GeorgiaModerate]

Actually, this would explain a lot:

https://twitter.com/michelleinbklyn/status/1262496219194064902

Yeah, about that...

https://twitter.com/mviser/status/1262775735682502658

Is Virginia at war with Idaho?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Alachua County, Fla., has repealed its mask directive. But police say nobody was ever cited under it anyway.

[Calthrina950]

Alachua County, Fla., has repealed its mask directive. But police say nobody was ever cited under it anyway.

I know that many areas imposing mask mandates had set a deadline for them to expire. With summer upon us, will any of them be extended? Or ended?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Alachua County, Fla., has repealed its mask directive. But police say nobody was ever cited under it anyway.

I know that many areas imposing mask mandates had set a deadline for them to expire. With summer upon us, will any of them be extended? Or ended?

I would bet that some places never repeal it, even if this virus is completely stamped out. Not only that, they'll probably extend it to all people outdoors too. I'm sure this won't happen everywhere though.

The Patriot Act was never repealed, so I'm sure a lot of mask laws will stick around forever too.

[Grassroots]

There's going to be maybe no more than 200 cases per day nationwide by september, I see no reason why any measures are necessary at all at that point in time.

What makes you say that?

By that point the virus would have been blasted by summer heat for three months.

There are studies that have debunked this theory months ago. Warmer temperatures do have a minimal impact, but not that much overall. My belief is that the numbers will somewhat stabilize in June, but a second wave will hit in October since vast majorities of populations lack immunity.

The virus is too resistant and far spread that I can ever be contained again without vaccine. Or through herd immunity if the spread happens extremely fast (causing the healthcare system to collapse with many more deaths). Unfortunately, I have to say.

True. I think a second wave will hit closer to december though.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Actually, this would explain a lot:

https://twitter.com/michelleinbklyn/status/1262496219194064902

Yeah, about that...

https://twitter.com/mviser/status/1262775735682502658

He'd be better off just burning whatever money he intends to spend there. This is why all the reporting of his record campaign coffers doesn't really intimidate me anymore. Anyway, so far the only ads his campaign has been making are embarrassing pop culture references where Trump is inserted into a movie or something.

[YE]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1262575447134568448

This is a good point.  I think we could reach a status quo where the smaller types of gatherings are mostly open (with some precautions) while large gatherings such as sporting events are still a no-no until a vaccine is available.

I mean Europe is basically at this point already. Most borders are closed but restaurants, shops, grades schools are open.

Of course, the curve seems to not be bending as fast as it did in Europe (jeez, I wonder why) but I still don't think we're too far away from such point either even if it's taken longer than most would have liked.

[YE]

Alachua County, Fla., has repealed its mask directive. But police say nobody was ever cited under it anyway.

I know that many areas imposing mask mandates had set a deadline for them to expire. With summer upon us, will any of them be extended? Or ended?

I would bet that some places never repeal it, even if this virus is completely stamped out. Not only that, they'll probably extend it to all people outdoors too. I'm sure this won't happen everywhere though.

The Patriot Act was never repealed, so I'm sure a lot of mask laws will stick around forever too.

There is no large special interest group that would favor that. Same can't be said for the Patriot Act.

[brucejoel99]

Alachua County, Fla., has repealed its mask directive. But police say nobody was ever cited under it anyway.

*sigh*

Aaaand this is why I'm gonna end up being made to take my classes in the fall online. Thanks so f**king much, Gainesville!

[Calthrina950]

Alachua County, Fla., has repealed its mask directive. But police say nobody was ever cited under it anyway.

I know that many areas imposing mask mandates had set a deadline for them to expire. With summer upon us, will any of them be extended? Or ended?

I would bet that some places never repeal it, even if this virus is completely stamped out. Not only that, they'll probably extend it to all people outdoors too. I'm sure this won't happen everywhere though.

The Patriot Act was never repealed, so I'm sure a lot of mask laws will stick around forever too.

I would hope not. I don't think mask-wearing will be a permanent practice, though it will certainly be utilized whenever there is a similar outbreak like this pandemic in the future.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 5/19 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

Δ Change: Day-by-day Growth or Decline or COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

<Last Numbers for 3/26-3/28 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 3/29-4/4 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/5-4/11 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/12-4/18 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/19-4/25 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 4/26-5/2 in this post>

5/3: <Sunday>

• Cases: 1,187,804 (+27,030 | Δ Change: ↓8.32% | Σ Increase: ↑2.11%)
• Deaths: 68,589 (+1,142 | Δ Change: ↓31.94% | Σ Increase: ↑1.70%)

5/4:

• Cases: 1,212,835 (+25,031 | Δ Change: ↓7.40% | Σ Increase: ↑2.33%)
• Deaths: 69,921 (+1,332 | Δ Change: ↑16.64% | Σ Increase: ↑1.54%)

5/5:

• Cases: 1,236,987 (+24,152 | Δ Change: ↓3.51% | Σ Increase: ↑1.99%)
• Deaths: 72,241 (+2,320 | Δ Change: ↑74.17% | Σ Increase: ↑3.32%)

5/6:

• Cases: 1,263,092 (+26,105 | Δ Change: ↑8.09% | Σ Increase: ↑2.11%)
• Deaths: 74,799 (+2,558 | Δ Change: ↑10.26% | Σ Increase: ↑3.54%)

5/7:

• Cases: 1,292,594 (+29,502 | Δ Change: ↑13.01% | Σ Increase: ↑2.34%)
• Deaths: 76,926 (+2,127 | Δ Change: ↓16.85% | Σ Increase: ↑2.84%)

5/8:

• Cases: 1,321,785 (+29,191 | Δ Change: ↓1.05% | Σ Increase: ↑2.26%)
• Deaths: 78,615 (+1,689 | Δ Change: ↓20.59% | Σ Increase: ↑2.20%)

5/9:

• Cases: 1,347,309 (+25,524 | Δ Change: ↓12.56% | Σ Increase: ↑1.93%)
• Deaths: 80,037 (+1,422 | Δ Change: ↓15.81% | Σ Increase: ↑1.51%)

5/10: <Sunday>

• Cases: 1,367,638 (+20,329 | Δ Change: ↓20.35% | Σ Increase: ↑1.93%)
• Deaths: 80,787 (+750 | Δ Change: ↓47.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.94%)

5/11:

• Cases: 1,385,834 (+18,196 | Δ Change: ↓10.49% | Σ Increase: ↑1.33%)
• Deaths: 81,795 (+1,008 | Δ Change: ↑34.40% | Σ Increase: ↑1.25%)

5/12:

• Cases: 1,408,155 (+22,321 | Δ Change: ↑22.67% | Σ Increase: ↑1.61%)
• Deaths: 83,377 (+1,582 | Δ Change: ↑56.94% | Σ Increase: ↑1.93%)

5/13:

• Cases: 1,430,348 (+22,193 | Δ Change: ↓0.57% | Σ Increase: ↑1.58%)
• Deaths: 85,197 (+1,820 | Δ Change: ↑15.44% | Σ Increase: ↑2.18%)

5/14:

• Cases: 1,456,828 (+26,480 | Δ Change: ↑19.32% | Σ Increase: ↑1.85%)
• Deaths: 86,901 (+1,704 | Δ Change: ↓6.37% | Σ Increase: ↑2.00%)

5/15 (Yesterday):

• Cases: 1,483,736 (+26,908 | Δ Change: ↑1.62% | Σ Increase: ↑1.85%)
• Deaths: 88,479 (+1,578 | Δ Change: ↓7.39% | Σ Increase: ↑1.82%)

5/16:

• Cases: 1,505,033 (+21,297 | Δ Change: ↓20.85% | Σ Increase: ↑1.44%)
• Deaths: 89,511 (+1,032 | Δ Change: ↓34.60% | Σ Increase: ↑1.17%)

5/17: <Sunday>

• Cases: 1,526,842 (+21,809 | Δ Change: ↑2.40% | Σ Increase: ↑1.44%)
• Deaths: 90,973 (+1,462 | Δ Change: ↑41.67% | Σ Increase: ↑1.45%)

5/18 (Yesterday):

• Cases: 1,550,294 (+23,452 | Δ Change: ↑7.53% | Σ Increase: ↑1.54%)
• Deaths: 91,981 (+1,008 | Δ Change: ↓31.05% | Σ Increase: ↑1.11%)

5/19 (Today):

• Cases: 1,570,583 (+20,289 | Δ Change: ↓13.49% | Σ Increase: ↑1.31%)
• Deaths: 93,533 (+1,552 | Δ Change: ↑53.97% | Σ Increase: ↑1.69%)