COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/ByMikeBaker/status/1293573604265795584

Although the UK number seems to be due some bureaucratic snafu

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/valeriestrauss/status/1293928408733417473

Really

[DINGO Joe]

A good article about the CDC and the tracking of "excess deaths"

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-excess-deaths-tally-in-the-us-is-204691-in-7-months-so-covid-19-deaths-might-be-undercounted-2020-08-13?siteid=yhoof2

[DINGO Joe]

So right now the expectation is that the winter will bring a massive surge to the coronavirus up north due to "cold weather" or something and that we will have a major flu outbreak.

Would be funny if the mask wearing results in the opposite and we have a very light flu season. lmao.

It should be expected that the flu season would be light as the same things you do for Covid limit chances of being exposed to the flu. 

[DINGO Joe]

Which county in the US has the highest death rate per capita?

Gove County, Kansas (pop. 2,600) has recorded 19 deaths, or 721 per 100,000. I don't think there's a particular reason why it's hit Gove County worse than others; lots of small rural counties means you'll inherently get a lot of variation. There are the usual problems — underfunded and understaffed hospital, no mask mandate — but nothing that you wouldn't find in every neighboring county.

It does have a hospital where 50 staff were infected, as well as a nursing home (30 people) where everyone was infected. It is also on I-70 so you will have bunches of people stopping for a meal, or refilling the gas tank, or staying overnight compared to the population. Out in the middle of nowhere people will be relaxed. The population is somewhat old (23% 65+ in 2010)

Unless you have a meatpacking plant, every rural county in KS is "somewhat old"

[DINGO Joe]

Why does every anti-lockdown rally have to have people walking with Confederate flags?

https://bronx.news12.com/business-owners-march-in-protest-of-gov-murphys-new-restrictions

I've never seen bronz this close to having an epiphany

[DINGO Joe]

Please don't believe rumors about me from aad. I do not tie up and tickle guys.

As long as you wear a mask and take other safety precautions, we're not here to judge you.

[DINGO Joe]

Love how Minnesota, the ultimate good governance, high social trust/compliance liberal haven out of all 50 states in this country is about to take over the top state in 7 day trailing case total.

But it was totally Kristi Noem and anti-mask Dakota Republicans responsible for South Dakota's outbreak, right? Not the normal weather pattern at all!

A five minute check of the WaPo web site indicates that Minnesota tested almost four times as many people in the last week per capita than SD to achieve the same per capita rate of cases and given SD sky high positivity rate they definitely should be testing more.  Also, the counties in Western Minnesota are racking up huge positives right now frequently twice that of the Twin Cities, so yes the Gov probably should have shut down the border with North and South Retardia and ordered the guard to shoot anyone trying to pass through (RIP BRTD) but then,  the people in Western Minnesota are generally as dumb as the Dakotas and then you have the whole border with Dumb Ass Iowa to consider. 

Anecdotally, earlier this year when Iowa got hit with outbreaks in the meat packing plants, i didn't hear much about it from Mom in our calls, because we really don't know the people who work in the plants.  Now, our weekly calls involve about 30 minutes hearing about relatives I barely remember and their relatives and their nursing homes that are all up into COVID.  So, this round does seem different and definitely seems much more rural/whiter than early this year--at least so far.

In sum, your first (or most recent) attempt at epidemiology seems to be a bit lacking.

[DINGO Joe]

I was reading a story about the surge in Iowa which has reported a combined 155 deaths on the 3rd and 4th and only 2 of those deaths are in Dec, the rest are lag from Nov. Though there's every reason to believe there are plenty of bodies in the pipeline.

[DINGO Joe]

You'd have to be a substantial moron to tout Sweden as successful vs Covid at this point.

[DINGO Joe]

You'd have to be a substantial moron to tout Sweden as successful vs Covid at this point.

Their death rate isn't as bad as America's is.

Yeah, we're just a little different as a society than Sweden.  Why don't you compare apples to apples?  How is Sweden doing compared to Norway or Finland?  Why does Sweden have a death rate 10X their neighbors?

[DINGO Joe]

Charley Pride, country music's first black superstar, has died of COVID-19 complications at age 86.  I well remember his songs on the radio when I was growing up.  A great talent.

Died a month after accepting a lifetime achievement award at the CMAs, which were a notorious COVID sh**tshow.

[DINGO Joe]

Congratulations rural Trump America. You have done the near impossible. Cause a virus to spread out of control in rural communities nation wide.

In rural communities simple common sense would have prevented this.

In lieu of a college degree, that's what rural America is supposed to have.  Didn't turn out that way.

[DINGO Joe]

The CDC/NCHS dashboard keeps a running total of different categories for the pandemic (and is incomplete as it can take up to 8 weeks)  They have a COVID number and various combination of COVID-Pneumonia-Influenza combined.  In previous years, the NCHS would report Influenza and Pneumonia deaths as one category and that number ranged from 50,000 to 59,000 each year from 2017 to 2019. 

The current dashboard from 2-01 thru 12-19 (again incomplete for the last 8 weeks) has a combined 441,000 COVID-Pneumonia-Influenza deaths.  So, really it's likely that we will have hit 400,000 COVID deaths by the end of the this year whenever they get their final categorization

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/covid19/index.htm

[DINGO Joe]

are the numbers lagging due to Christmas?

Of course.  New Year's will disrupt reporting too.

[DINGO Joe]

Don't be surprised if there is a surge of cases in or around Tuscaloosa in the coming weeks.

https://twitter.com/abc_columbia/status/1349037196075016194?s=20

Oddly, Alabama has posted huge death numbers the last three days (almost 600), probably a recoding of past deaths.

[DINGO Joe]

D.C.

https://twitter.com/AlexCTaliadoros/status/1350236342182096905

Democratic governance at work!

Like people who live in glass Mississippis should throw anything.

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/piyushmittal/status/1350868085129953281
Particularly chilling to me is this part:

Jones announced Saturday on Twitter that she learned of the warrant and plans to turn herself in on Sunday. The Florida Department of Law Enforcement confirmed there is a warrant for Jones’ arrest but said it cannot disclose what charges she faces until she is in custody.

I was not previously aware that premeditated "arrest first, charges afterward" was a thing that could happen in the United States.

This is and has always been a nothing story.  Do some basic research and fact-checking.

How come she has Florida backwards in her picture?

It's a thing with some selfie-cameras.  A mirror effect is created.  Trying to comprehend why makes my brain hurt.

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/piyushmittal/status/1350868085129953281
Particularly chilling to me is this part:

Jones announced Saturday on Twitter that she learned of the warrant and plans to turn herself in on Sunday. The Florida Department of Law Enforcement confirmed there is a warrant for Jones’ arrest but said it cannot disclose what charges she faces until she is in custody.

I was not previously aware that premeditated "arrest first, charges afterward" was a thing that could happen in the United States.

This is and has always been a nothing story.  Do some basic research and fact-checking.

How come she has Florida backwards in her picture?

It's a thing with some selfie-cameras.  A mirror effect is created.  Trying to comprehend why makes my brain hurt.

She should have fixed it before she posted it. She probably didn't notice.

Some cameras fix it automatically, why some do and don't are, again, brain cells I don't want to devote to understanding.

[DINGO Joe]

D.C.

https://twitter.com/AlexCTaliadoros/status/1350236342182096905

Democratic governance at work!

Like people who live in glass Mississippis should throw anything.

Is this....WHATABOUTISM!?

I thought only Fuzzy was lame enough to do that, lol

Gotta give credit to Mississippi, they spotted Louisiana a huge lead in COVID death and they still caught up.

[DINGO Joe]

Yes, yes, as always, Trump could have won if he wasn't Trump.

[DINGO Joe]

Even as the number of new cases has been on a steady and sometimes sharp decline over the last couple of weeks, the mortality number has been surprisingly stubborn in declining consistently; even if it is a lagging indicator, it seems to be breaking off from previous trends and remaining at or around its peak numbers.

Does anyone knows what's going on? Are cases being under reported? Are new strains of COVID more deadly?

Deaths usually lag about 3-6 weeks behind initial diagnosis with COVID.

I already recognize this in my post. The case rate has been dropping considerably for three weeks already.

Some Southern mid-sized states like Alabama, South Carolina, Tennessee and even yesterday North Carolina have been dropping some ridiculously spiking numbers of late.  Alabama alone reported over 500 total new deaths the last two days but said none were actually from February--all from Dec and Jan.

[DINGO Joe]

Personally, while I've been mostly diligent through this whole thing, I've been extra diligent in the last month or so because I'd be pretty pissed if I got the COVID right before my turn at inoculation comes up.

[DINGO Joe]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 2/4 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

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1/24: <Sunday>

• Cases: 25,702,125 (+135,336 | ΔW Change: ↓23.11% | Σ Increase: ↑0.53%)
• Deaths: 429,490 (+1,855 | ΔW Change: ↓4.43% | Σ Increase: ↑0.43%)

1/25: <M>

• Cases: 25,861,597 (+159,472 | ΔW Change: ↑10.49% | Σ Increase: ↑0.62%)
• Deaths: 431,392 (+1,902 | ΔW Change: ↑34.13% | Σ Increase: ↑0.44%)

1/26: <T>

• Cases: 26,011,222 (+149,625 | ΔW Change: ↓17.15% | Σ Increase: ↑0.58%)
• Deaths: 435,452 (+4,060 | ΔW Change: ↑41.66% | Σ Increase: ↑0.94%)

1/27: <W>

• Cases: 26,166,201 (+154,979 | ΔW Change: ↓19.29% | Σ Increase: ↑0.60%)
• Deaths: 439,517 (+4,065 | ΔW Change: ↓7.78% | Σ Increase: ↑0.93%)

1/28: <Þ>

• Cases: 26,338,607 (+172,406 | ΔW Change: ↓12.53% | Σ Increase: ↑0.66%)
• Deaths: 443,769 (+4,252 | ΔW Change: ↓3.17% | Σ Increase: ↑0.97%)

1/29: <F>

• Cases: 26,512,193 (+173,586 | ΔW Change: ↓10.50% | Σ Increase: ↑0.66%)
• Deaths: 447,459 (+3,690 | ΔW Change: ↓5.19% | Σ Increase: ↑0.83%)

1/30: <S>

• Cases: 26,665,740 (+153,547 | ΔW Change: ↓13.13% | Σ Increase: ↑0.58%)
• Deaths: 450,381 (+2,922 | ΔW Change: ↓15.50% | Σ Increase: ↑0.65%)

1/31: <Sunday>

• Cases: 26,767,229 (+101,489 | ΔW Change: ↓25.01% | Σ Increase: ↑0.38%)
• Deaths: 452,279 (+1,898 | ΔW Change: ↑2.32% | Σ Increase: ↑0.42%)

2/1: <M>

• Cases: 26,911,375 (+144,146 | ΔW Change: ↓9.61% | Σ Increase: ↑0.54%)
• Deaths: 454,213 (+1,934 | ΔW Change: ↑1.68% | Σ Increase: ↑0.43%)

2/2: <T>

• Cases: 27,027,347 (+115,972 | ΔW Change: ↓22.49% | Σ Increase: ↑0.43%)
• Deaths: 457,856 (+3,643 | ΔW Change: ↓10.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.80%)

2/3 (Yesterday): <W>

• Cases: 27,150,457 (+123,110 | ΔW Change: ↓20.56% | Σ Increase: ↑0.46%)
• Deaths: 461,930 (+4,074 | ΔW Change: ↑0.22% | Σ Increase: ↑0.77%)

2/4 (Today): <Þ>

• Cases: 27,273,890 (+123,433 | ΔW Change: ↓28.41% | Σ Increase: ↑0.45%)
• Deaths: 466,988 (+5,058 | ΔW Change: ↑18.96% | Σ Increase: ↑1.09%)

Indiana released a death audit yesterday and added 1500 deaths to their count yesterday an additional 1200 deaths in 2020 and 300 last month

https://www.wishtv.com/news/coronavirus/indiana-audit-finds-1500-additional-covid-19-deaths/

[DINGO Joe]

Iowa’s House speaker said he can’t make lawmakers wear masks — but he did enforce a ban on jeans

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/02/04/iowa-mask-jeans-house-speaker/

Iowa House Speaker Pat Grassley (R) has repeatedly pushed back against imposing a mask mandate inside the legislature, saying that he cannot force lawmakers to cover their faces — just as he cannot stop someone from voting on the House floor in their bathing suit.

But when one Democratic lawmaker attempted to speak during a floor debate on Tuesday — not in a bikini or one-piece but in jeans — Grassley called her out for violating the chamber’s dress code.

“You will not be recognized to speak for debate,” he told state Rep. Beth Wessel-Kroeschell (D), according to the Des Moines Register. “You can continue to vote from the floor.”

I have kin in Iowa and on a Zoom call around Christmas my cousin's kid who plays high school basketball mentioned that they practice and play their games wearing masks.