COVID-19 Megathread 4: Grandma Got Run Over by the Dow Jones
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  COVID-19 Megathread 4: Grandma Got Run Over by the Dow Jones
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Author Topic: COVID-19 Megathread 4: Grandma Got Run Over by the Dow Jones  (Read 112702 times)
Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #1125 on: April 10, 2020, 07:44:59 PM »


Extremely doubtful. We are in much better shape than Italy and nobody expects the lockdown to end before mid-May the earliest.
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Crumpets
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« Reply #1126 on: April 10, 2020, 07:47:04 PM »

From NBC: U.S. spy agencies collected raw intelligence hinting at public health crisis in Wuhan, China, in November

Quote
WASHINGTON — U.S. spy agencies collected raw intelligence hinting at a public health crisis in Wuhan, China, in November, two current and one former U.S. official told NBC News, but the information was not understood as the first warning signs of an impending global pandemic.

The intelligence came in the form of communications intercepts and overhead images showing increased activity at health facilities, the officials said. The intelligence was distributed to some federal public health officials in the form of a "situation report" in late November, a former official briefed on the matter said. But there was no assessment that a lethal global outbreak was brewing at that time, a defense official said.

On Wednesday night, the Defense Department disputed an ABC News report that an "intelligence report" had warned about the coronavirus in November.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #1127 on: April 10, 2020, 07:51:30 PM »


Extremely doubtful. We are in much better shape than Italy and nobody expects the lockdown to end before mid-May the earliest.

Well, obviously some form of this will have to continue, but they might actually be able to at least loosen some restrictions come May 3rd.
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Fmr. Gov. NickG
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« Reply #1128 on: April 10, 2020, 07:54:42 PM »

I would fully support opening up the country again on May 1st if we can be assured that everyone can easily get a covid test by then.

Why is this not happening?  Where are the tests?  We have millions of new unemployed people every week.  Why not put them to work producing and distributing tests?

These questions has been asked every day now for more than a month, and the President has been outrageously dishonest in answering it everyday.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #1129 on: April 10, 2020, 07:55:20 PM »

I would fully support opening up the country again on May 1st if we can be assured that everyone can easily get a covid test by then.

Why is this not happening?  Where are the tests?  We have millions of new unemployed people every week.  Why not put them to work producing and distributing tests?

These questions has been asked every day now for more than a month, and the President has been outrageously dishonest in answering it everyday.


The Federal government is actually cutting back on support for testing, lol
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #1130 on: April 10, 2020, 08:07:29 PM »

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 4/10 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'll be keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

Δ Change: Day-by-day Growth or Decline or COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.
  • IE: Are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.
  • IE: What's the overall change in the total?

3/26:
  • Cases: 85,390
  • Deaths: ±1,200

3/27:
  • Cases: 103,798 (+18,408 | Δ Change: -% | Σ Increase: ↑21.56%)
  • Deaths: 1,693 (+493 | Δ Change: -% | Σ Increase: ↑41.03%)

3/28:
  • Cases: 123,428 (+19,630 | Δ Change: ↑6.64% | ↑18.91%)
  • Deaths: 2,211 (+518 | Δ Change: ↑5.07% | Σ Increase: ↑30.60%)

3/29: <Sunday>
  • Cases: 142,178 (+18,750 | Δ Change: ↓4.48% | Σ Increase: ↑15.20%)
  • Deaths: 2,484 (+273 | Δ Change: ↓47.30% | Σ Increase: ↑12.35%)

3/30:
  • Cases: 163,490 (+21,312 | Δ Change: ↑13.66% | Σ Increase: ↑14.99%)
  • Deaths: 3,148 (+664 | Δ Change: ↑143.22% | Σ Increase: ↑26.73%)

3/31:
  • Cases: 187,917 (+24,427 | Δ Change: ↑14.62% | Σ Increase: ↑14.94%)
  • Deaths: 3,867 (+749 | Δ Change: ↑12.80% | Σ Increase: ↑22.84%)

4/1:
  • Cases: 215,003 (+27,086 | Δ Change: ↑10.89% | Σ Increase: ↑14.41%)
  • Deaths: 5,102 (+1,235 | Δ Change: ↑66.89% | Σ Increase: ↑31.94%)

4/2:
  • Cases: 244,433 (+29,430 | Δ Change: ↑8.65% | Σ Increase: ↑13.69%)
  • Deaths: 6,070 (+968 | Δ Change: ↓21.62% | Σ Increase: ↑18.97%)

4/3:
  • Cases: 276,965 (+32,532 | Δ Change: ↑10.54% | Σ Increase: ↑13.31%)
  • Deaths: 7,391 (+1,321 | Δ Change: ↑36.47% | Σ Increase: ↑21.76%)

4/4:
  • Cases: 311,357 (+34,392 | Δ Change: ↑5.72% | Σ Increase: ↑12.42%)
  • Deaths: 8,452 (+1,061 | Δ Change: ↓19.68% | Σ Increase: ↑14.36%)

4/5: <Sunday>
  • Cases: 336,327 (+24,970 | Δ Change: ↓27.40% | Σ Increase: ↑8.02%)
  • Deaths: 9,605 (+1,153 | Δ Change: ↑8.67% | Σ Increase: ↑13.64%)

4/6:
  • Cases: 366,112 (+29,785 | Δ Change: ↑19.28% | Σ Increase: ↑8.86%)
  • Deaths: 10,859 (+1,254 | Δ Change: ↑8.76% | Σ Increase: ↑13.06%)

4/7:
  • Cases: 399,937 (+33,825 | Δ Change: ↑13.56% | Σ Increase: ↑13.56%)
  • Deaths: 12,813 (+1,954 | Δ Change: ↑55.82% | Σ Increase: ↑9.02%)

4/8:
  • Cases: 434,698 (+34,761 | Δ Change: ↑2.77% | Σ Increase: ↑8.69%)
  • Deaths: 14,787 (+1,974 | Δ Change: ↑1.02% | Σ Increase: ↑15.41%)

4/9 (Yesterday):
  • Cases: 468,566 (+33,868 | Δ Change: ↓2.57% | Σ Increase: ↑7.79%)
  • Deaths: 16,691 (+1,904 | Δ Change: ↓3.55% | Σ Increase: ↑12.88%)

4/10 (Today):
  • Cases: 502,318 (+33,752 | Δ Change: ↓0.34% | Σ Increase: ↑7.20%)
  • Deaths: 18,725 (+2,034 | Δ Change: ↑6.83% | Σ Increase: ↑12.19%)
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Grassroots
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« Reply #1131 on: April 10, 2020, 08:56:52 PM »


Extremely doubtful. We are in much better shape than Italy and nobody expects the lockdown to end before mid-May the earliest.

Brucejoel is right, they'll probably drop the restrictions on that day. This is the Mediterranean after all.
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Meclazine for Israel
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« Reply #1132 on: April 10, 2020, 09:26:36 PM »
« Edited: April 10, 2020, 09:43:13 PM by Meclazine »

OK,

Here are some predictive graphs from the 'Active Case' work I have been doing. I will add some realistic recoveries to UK and France tomorrow. So far, UK have only reported 340 recoveries which is clearly in error.

Basically, the left solid line is data. The right dashed line is hypothetical. Each day as the data is entered, the predicted model will change. The last data entered will be the first number used in the predicted curve for example. Decay curves are very simple to model.

Germany



Germany on the smooth path down. 24,500 recoveries added to make this curve.



Spain



I have added 40,000 recoveries to the Spanish dataset to make this curve.



Italy



I have added 65,000 recoveries to the Italian dataset to make this curve.



USA



This one is the hardest to predict as the growth continues in one area of the country whilst receding in others. Overall the growth continues upwards, albeit at a flatter pace.

No recoveries added to this dataset.

As time progresses, the new data added will replace and influence the predicted decay curve on the right. The data 'updates' the model so to speak.

In terms of Growth of Active Cases, when all plotted on the same graph, we get:



The point at which growth drops through zero is the 'predicted' date of the peak of the curve.
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Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin
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« Reply #1133 on: April 10, 2020, 09:35:12 PM »

Trump is dumb, I've been saying this. It's pretty amazing how the dumb label hasn't stuck to Trump.

He hides it behind a stinking cloud of ignorance, mental illness, and generally being an awful human being.

There's a quote from the late sf author Douglas Adams that Mr. Trump has reminded me of:
Quote
“One of the major difficulties Trillian experienced in her relationship with Zaphod was learning to distinguish between him pretending to be stupid just to get people off their guard, pretending to be stupid because he couldn't be bothered to think and wanted someone else to do it for him, pretending to be outrageously stupid to hide the fact that he actually didn’t understand what was going on, and really being genuinely stupid. He was renowned for being amazingly clever and quite clearly was so—but not all the time, which obviously worried him, hence, the act. He preferred people to be puzzled rather than contemptuous.”

Mostly minus the amazingly clever part. Trump is about as sharp as a sack of nerf balls. but he does have a unique talent for appealing to the lowest of his fellow human beings.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #1134 on: April 10, 2020, 09:41:27 PM »


Extremely doubtful. We are in much better shape than Italy and nobody expects the lockdown to end before mid-May the earliest.

Brucejoel is right, they'll probably drop the restrictions on that day. This is the Mediterranean after all.

*The nationwide lockdown; not all restrictions.
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
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« Reply #1135 on: April 10, 2020, 10:14:22 PM »



Everyone is undercounting them. It sounds like Germany is especially undercounting them.
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🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸
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« Reply #1136 on: April 10, 2020, 10:24:18 PM »

All over the country, there are portions of stores that people are prohibited from buying from. In Michigan, by Gov Whitmer's executive order, this includes home improvement and gardening.



https://www.bridgemi.com/michigan-government/what-michigans-new-coronavirus-stay-home-executive-order-means
Quote
Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s latest stay-home order to battle the coronavirus pandemic allows home improvement stores to stay open, but only to sell “products necessary to maintain the safety, sanitation and basic operations of residences.”

The new regulations required Home Depot to close its paint section, flooring section and outdoor gardening center by Friday morning.

Tillery, a Lansing resident who already lost his job as a floor layer, has been “trying to make ends meet” during the pandemic by picking up side jobs as a handyman, providing what he said are emergency repairs in a time of crisis.

Paint was supposed to be one of the last steps in his current project: fixing a home after a tree crashed through the roof, damaging the ceiling and causing water damage.

Now, he’s not sure he can finish the job, so he planned to snap a photo of the closed paint section to show his client as proof.
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emailking
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« Reply #1137 on: April 10, 2020, 10:35:12 PM »

I guess because it's not fair to other stores that sell those products but have to shut down because they don't sell the products that allow Home Depot to remain open.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #1138 on: April 10, 2020, 11:41:37 PM »

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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #1139 on: April 11, 2020, 12:08:01 AM »



She deserves to lose in a landslide.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #1140 on: April 11, 2020, 12:25:42 AM »


Here's hoping everybody's favorite astronaut ensures that she does.
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World politics is up Schmitt creek
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« Reply #1141 on: April 11, 2020, 12:37:48 AM »

I guess because it's not fair to other stores that sell those products but have to shut down because they don't sell the products that allow Home Depot to remain open.

That seems like tortured logic for what's on its face a pretty silly policy.
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emailking
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« Reply #1142 on: April 11, 2020, 01:04:23 AM »

I guess because it's not fair to other stores that sell those products but have to shut down because they don't sell the products that allow Home Depot to remain open.

That seems like tortured logic for what's on its face a pretty silly policy.

That the other stores have to close or that HD can't sell its full inventory?
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World politics is up Schmitt creek
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« Reply #1143 on: April 11, 2020, 01:09:42 AM »

I guess because it's not fair to other stores that sell those products but have to shut down because they don't sell the products that allow Home Depot to remain open.

That seems like tortured logic for what's on its face a pretty silly policy.

That the other stores have to close or that HD can't sell its full inventory?

That HD can't sell its full inventory. I understand the rationale you're laying out but the policy still seems weirdly invasive to me.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #1144 on: April 11, 2020, 01:18:25 AM »

If the number of fatalities in people below 25 is that low, then from a policy perspective its functionally 0.
Not if you're a governor deciding whether to re-open your state's schools...
Only in a small, small state. 5 is a very tiny number compared to how many people attend the school system.
And when people are howling for DeSantis's head because children (doesn't matter how many) are dying, do you recommend he tell the grieving families that it was "functionally zero from a policy perspective"? To say nothing of all the people over 25 who are needed to teach the children...
If I were DeSantis, I would choose a policy not rooted in paranoia and then explain it as tactfully as possible.
I would also not punish truancy in these circumstances either.
But in general this disease kills very few young people, so treating schools as some death ground where huge numbers of kids will die from corona is going into Chicken Little territory. Comparitively very few young people with no at-risk factors are actually at risk of dying from this thing.
Remote teaching might still be advisable in a wide range of cases, but not because of the risk of children dying, which is statistically insignificant (younger people with stuff like asthma is an entirely different story). It should be done to help teachers.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #1145 on: April 11, 2020, 01:26:38 AM »
« Edited: April 11, 2020, 01:31:14 AM by Southern Speaker Punxsutawney Phil »

If you are young, lack an ailment that would make your lungs less functional, and your main worry is dying from corona, your priorities are likely to be wildly misplaced. Focus ought to be on those who are older and whom you interact with on some basis, especially older people, particularly grandparents. Worry about being a carrier.
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emailking
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« Reply #1146 on: April 11, 2020, 01:54:25 AM »

That HD can't sell its full inventory. I understand the rationale you're laying out but the policy still seems weirdly invasive to me.

In part 2 or 3 someone brought up the example that Gamestop has to close but you can just go to Walmart and buy a video game. Something about that doesn't sit right with me either. Presumably if they close off significant parts of the stores there will be fewer customers coming in and fewer employees that have to come into work, which is also the rationale behind asking non-essential businesses to close. The fairness, or lack thereof, is just another way of looking at it.
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afleitch
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« Reply #1147 on: April 11, 2020, 02:01:36 AM »

There's a problem worldwide with what is deemed 'essential'. A two week lockdown has different essentials than say a two month lockdown. There is a point where buying new clothes, shoes, being able to do home repair even getting a haircut becomes essential, the longer a lockdown operates.
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Grassroots
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« Reply #1148 on: April 11, 2020, 02:11:54 AM »

If I were the president, I would do this:

This pandemic acts like a ripple effect in the US. The first states are the quickest to lose the ripple, we can end the lockdowns in those states once they lose their case rates (i'm thinking about Washington and Illinois in particular, New York comes to mind but the huge scope of the impact leads me to think it might need a little more time). The ripple spreads to the later states (TX,GA,FL, other rurals) which haven't peaked yet and are still growing exponentially, we will hold the stay at home order on them.
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Vaccinated Russian Bear
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« Reply #1149 on: April 11, 2020, 05:40:54 AM »

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths/


Data as of Apr. 11 at 4:51 a.m.

Cases:

Deaths:



Cases and Deaths, per state, raw:

Cases and Deaths, per state, per capita:





Totally 2,108 deaths were registered yesterday, of which 49% are from NY + NJ.

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