COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[It’s so Joever]

Haven't really researched it tbh, but is there any actual proof that the virus is significantly reduced in warm weather? I mean, the thing is spreading just fine in Brazil, Ecuador and Peru for instance.

Yes, just look at South Africa and Australia, and to an extent India. Also, look at how well several southern states are doing (Florida, Texas, Georgia, Alabama) compared to their governor's loose strategies.

Does anyone have "US minus New York" numbers? It seems like New York being through the worst of it is accounting for most or all of the decline in new cases.

It’s not just New York, things in NJ, LA, and MI are looking positive. That being said, smaller states are seeing substantial case growth and need to be monitored.
(This is why we should have had an actual quarantine of the NYC metro)

Testing is surging, cases p/d are probably going to continue to increase while the testing surges, the actual amount of cases p/d is declining almost everywhere. The only acceptable metric is percent of positives, which is declining everywhere.

Is it declining everywhere?
I only know it’s declining nationally and in CO.

[Grassroots]

Haven't really researched it tbh, but is there any actual proof that the virus is significantly reduced in warm weather? I mean, the thing is spreading just fine in Brazil, Ecuador and Peru for instance.

Yes, just look at South Africa and Australia, and to an extent India. Also, look at how well several southern states are doing (Florida, Texas, Georgia, Alabama) compared to their governor's loose strategies.

Does anyone have "US minus New York" numbers? It seems like New York being through the worst of it is accounting for most or all of the decline in new cases.

It’s not just New York, things in NJ, LA, and MI are looking positive. That being said, smaller states are seeing substantial case growth and need to be monitored.
(This is why we should have had an actual quarantine of the NYC metro)

Testing is surging, cases p/d are probably going to continue to increase while the testing surges, the actual amount of cases p/d is declining almost everywhere. The only acceptable metric is percent of positives, which is declining everywhere.

Is it declining everywhere?
I only know it’s declining nationally and in CO.

Almost every state, minus Wisconsin and some northern plains states.

[emailking]

Haven't really researched it tbh, but is there any actual proof that the virus is significantly reduced in warm weather? I mean, the thing is spreading just fine in Brazil, Ecuador and Peru for instance.

UV light is bad for it so there's probably a correlation there. But the thing spreads just fine indoors where the temperature is typically between 70 & 80 no matter where in the world you are, unless it's a very poor area.

[Grassroots]

Haven't really researched it tbh, but is there any actual proof that the virus is significantly reduced in warm weather? I mean, the thing is spreading just fine in Brazil, Ecuador and Peru for instance.

UV light is bad for it so there's probably a correlation there. But the thing spreads just fine indoors where the temperature is typically between 70 & 80 no matter where in the world you are, unless it's a very poor area.

Humidity is also very bad for it.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 5/12 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

Δ Change: Day-by-day Growth or Decline or COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

<Last Numbers for 3/26-3/28 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 3/29-4/4 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/5-4/11 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/12-4/18 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/19-4/25 in this post>

4/26: <Sunday>

• Cases: 987,160 (+26,509 | Δ Change: ↓25.56% | Σ Increase: ↑2.76%)
• Deaths: 55,413 (+1,157 | Δ Change: ↓44.13% | Σ Increase: ↑2.13%)

4/27:

• Cases: 1,010,299 (+23,139 | Δ Change: ↓12.71% | Σ Increase: ↑2.34%)
• Deaths: 56,797 (+1,384 | Δ Change: ↑19.62% | Σ Increase: ↑2.50%)

4/28:

• Cases: 1,035,454 (+25,155 | Δ Change: ↑8.71% | Σ Increase: ↑2.49%)
• Deaths: 59,252 (+2,455 | Δ Change: ↑77.38% | Σ Increase: ↑4.32%)

4/29:

• Cases: 1,064,572 (+29,118 | Δ Change: ↑15.75% | Σ Increase: ↑2.81%)
• Deaths: 61,669 (+2,417 | Δ Change: ↓1.55% | Σ Increase: ↑4.08%)

4/30:

• Cases: 1,095,023 (+30,451 | Δ Change: ↑4.58% | Σ Increase: ↑2.86%)
• Deaths: 63,856 (+2,187 | Δ Change: ↓9.52% | Σ Increase: ↑3.55%)

5/1:

• Cases: 1,131,280 (+36,257 | Δ Change: ↑19.07% | Σ Increase: ↑3.31%)
• Deaths: 65,766 (+1,910 | Δ Change: ↓12.67% | Σ Increase: ↑2.99%)

5/2:

• Cases: 1,160,774 (+29,484 | Δ Change: ↓18.68% | Σ Increase: ↑2.61%)
• Deaths: 67,444 (+1,678 | Δ Change: ↓12.15% | Σ Increase: ↑2.55%)

5/3: <Sunday>

• Cases: 1,187,804 (+27,030 | Δ Change: ↓8.32% | Σ Increase: ↑2.11%)
• Deaths: 68,589 (+1,142 | Δ Change: ↓31.94% | Σ Increase: ↑1.70%)

5/4:

• Cases: 1,212,835 (+25,031 | Δ Change: ↓7.40% | Σ Increase: ↑2.33%)
• Deaths: 69,921 (+1,332 | Δ Change: ↑16.64% | Σ Increase: ↑1.54%)

5/5:

• Cases: 1,236,987 (+24,152 | Δ Change: ↓3.51% | Σ Increase: ↑1.99%)
• Deaths: 72,241 (+2,320 | Δ Change: ↑74.17% | Σ Increase: ↑3.32%)

5/6:

• Cases: 1,263,092 (+26,105 | Δ Change: ↑8.09% | Σ Increase: ↑2.11%)
• Deaths: 74,799 (+2,558 | Δ Change: ↑10.26% | Σ Increase: ↑3.54%)

5/7:

• Cases: 1,292,594 (+29,502 | Δ Change: ↑13.01% | Σ Increase: ↑2.34%)
• Deaths: 76,926 (+2,127 | Δ Change: ↓16.85% | Σ Increase: ↑2.84%)

5/8:

• Cases: 1,321,785 (+29,191 | Δ Change: ↓1.05% | Σ Increase: ↑2.26%)
• Deaths: 78,615 (+1,689 | Δ Change: ↓20.59% | Σ Increase: ↑2.20%)

5/9:

• Cases: 1,347,309 (+25,524 | Δ Change: ↓12.56% | Σ Increase: ↑1.93%)
• Deaths: 80,037 (+1,422 | Δ Change: ↓15.81% | Σ Increase: ↑1.51%)

5/10: <Sunday>

• Cases: 1,367,638 (+20,329 | Δ Change: ↓20.35% | Σ Increase: ↑1.93%)
• Deaths: 80,787 (+750 | Δ Change: ↓47.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.94%)

5/11 (Yesterday):

• Cases: 1,385,834 (+18,196 | Δ Change: ↓10.49% | Σ Increase: ↑1.33%)
• Deaths: 81,795 (+1,008 | Δ Change: ↑34.40% | Σ Increase: ↑1.25%)

5/12 (Today):

• Cases: 1,408,155 (+22,321 | Δ Change: ↑22.67% | Σ Increase: ↑1.61%)
• Deaths: 83,377 (+1,582 | Δ Change: ↑56.94% | Σ Increase: ↑1.93%)

[riceowl]

Welp Tucker just went off on what a “buffoon” Fauci was so good luck y’all who thought he wouldn’t go truther

[Skill and Chance]

Welp Tucker just went off on what a “buffoon” Fauci was so good luck y’all who thought he wouldn’t go truther

What a shame.  He was originally the strongest voice on Fox for getting out ahead of the problem and treating it as a crisis.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Haven't really researched it tbh, but is there any actual proof that the virus is significantly reduced in warm weather? I mean, the thing is spreading just fine in Brazil, Ecuador and Peru for instance.

Yes, just look at South Africa and Australia, and to an extent India. Also, look at how well several southern states are doing (Florida, Texas, Georgia, Alabama) compared to their governor's loose strategies.

This is pedantic but there's a separability issue here. I don't think it's warm weather per se but instead it's just much harder to have the virus transmitted (and persisting on free surfaces) outside than inside, and places with nicer weather mean people spend more time outside.

I'm predicting that once it becomes too hot for people to spend extended time outside (thinking of places like Texas and Arizona) people will move inside where viral transmission will be more likely.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Haven't really researched it tbh, but is there any actual proof that the virus is significantly reduced in warm weather? I mean, the thing is spreading just fine in Brazil, Ecuador and Peru for instance.

Yes, just look at South Africa and Australia, and to an extent India. Also, look at how well several southern states are doing (Florida, Texas, Georgia, Alabama) compared to their governor's loose strategies.

Does anyone have "US minus New York" numbers? It seems like New York being through the worst of it is accounting for most or all of the decline in new cases.

It’s not just New York, things in NJ, LA, and MI are looking positive. That being said, smaller states are seeing substantial case growth and need to be monitored.
(This is why we should have had an actual quarantine of the NYC metro)

Testing is surging, cases p/d are probably going to continue to increase while the testing surges, the actual amount of cases p/d is declining almost everywhere. The only acceptable metric is percent of positives, which is declining everywhere.

Is India really a success story?  It seems like infections there are just starting to explode, despite the country implementing a pretty strict lockdown relatively early.

[Tintrlvr]

Haven't really researched it tbh, but is there any actual proof that the virus is significantly reduced in warm weather? I mean, the thing is spreading just fine in Brazil, Ecuador and Peru for instance.

Yes, just look at South Africa and Australia, and to an extent India. Also, look at how well several southern states are doing (Florida, Texas, Georgia, Alabama) compared to their governor's loose strategies.

Does anyone have "US minus New York" numbers? It seems like New York being through the worst of it is accounting for most or all of the decline in new cases.

It’s not just New York, things in NJ, LA, and MI are looking positive. That being said, smaller states are seeing substantial case growth and need to be monitored.
(This is why we should have had an actual quarantine of the NYC metro)

Testing is surging, cases p/d are probably going to continue to increase while the testing surges, the actual amount of cases p/d is declining almost everywhere. The only acceptable metric is percent of positives, which is declining everywhere.

Is India really a success story?  It seems like infections there are just starting to explode, despite the country implementing a pretty strict lockdown relatively early.

And Singapore, another tropical country, after early success containing the virus, now has one of the highest infection rates per capita globally despite pretty strict controls, although it has a thankfully low death rate so far. The evidence is really not there that warm, moist weather provides much benefit.

[Roll Roons]

Haven't really researched it tbh, but is there any actual proof that the virus is significantly reduced in warm weather? I mean, the thing is spreading just fine in Brazil, Ecuador and Peru for instance.

Yes, just look at South Africa and Australia, and to an extent India. Also, look at how well several southern states are doing (Florida, Texas, Georgia, Alabama) compared to their governor's loose strategies.

Does anyone have "US minus New York" numbers? It seems like New York being through the worst of it is accounting for most or all of the decline in new cases.

It’s not just New York, things in NJ, LA, and MI are looking positive. That being said, smaller states are seeing substantial case growth and need to be monitored.
(This is why we should have had an actual quarantine of the NYC metro)

Testing is surging, cases p/d are probably going to continue to increase while the testing surges, the actual amount of cases p/d is declining almost everywhere. The only acceptable metric is percent of positives, which is declining everywhere.

Is India really a success story?  It seems like infections there are just starting to explode, despite the country implementing a pretty strict lockdown relatively early.

And Singapore, another tropical country, after early success containing the virus, now has one of the highest infection rates per capita globally despite pretty strict controls, although it has a thankfully low death rate so far. The evidence is really not there that warm, moist weather provides much benefit.

To be fair, most cases in Singapore are coming from a migrant worker dorm, and most of the inhabitants are healthy young men. There's very little transmission in the rest of the country.

[T'Chenka]

Matthew McConaughey gets woke (but non-partisan) on Fox News.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Obviously, this is very localized, but the main hospital in my town is now reporting zero coronavirus cases!

https://www.williamsonhomepage.com/news/williamson-medical-center-reports-zero-covid-19-patients-in-house-since-saturday/article_c9494642-93ee-11ea-9db9-d7a395926d1f.html

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Universal City Walk is reopening on Thursday

Disney Springs will reopen next Wednesday

both with new rules

Both will require EVERYONE to wear masks and be subject to temp checks, dining will be outside only, anyone with temps higher than 100.4 will be denied entry, Social Distancing will be strongly enforced and if you break it you'll be asked to leave.

Theme parks will not reopen at this time

[Grassroots]

California Mayor is apparently trying to push the stay at home order through July (which isn't going to be necessary due to the case trend). Hopefully he realizes what that means and he will come back to reality, but expect riots if he doesn't.

[T'Chenka]

California Mayor is apparently trying to push the stay at home order through July (which isn't going to be necessary due to the case trend). Hopefully he realizes what that means and he will come back to reality, but expect riots if he doesn't.

Massive FF. Hopefully some anti-social-distancing traitors get triggered by this.

[emailking]

California Mayor is apparently trying to push the stay at home order through July (which isn't going to be necessary due to the case trend). Hopefully he realizes what that means and he will come back to reality, but expect riots if he doesn't.

I highly doubt there will be riots for that. I think most people have been expecting long lockdowns for a while now.

[Grassroots]

California Mayor is apparently trying to push the stay at home order through July (which isn't going to be necessary due to the case trend). Hopefully he realizes what that means and he will come back to reality, but expect riots if he doesn't.

I highly doubt there will be riots for that. I think most people have been expecting long lockdowns for a while now.

Through July? Lol no

[emailking]

Ok well regardless I don't think there will be riots, even though in previous threads I said I didn't think people would tolerate lockdowns lasting that long.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Disney said they have no plans to reopen their parks until at least July 1st, they're accepting bookings for that date but it is subject to change, new rules will be implemented when reopened

[Esteemed Jimmy]

California Mayor is apparently trying to push the stay at home order through July (which isn't going to be necessary due to the case trend). Hopefully he realizes what that means and he will come back to reality, but expect riots if he doesn't.

I highly doubt there will be riots for that. I think most people have been expecting long lockdowns for a while now.

Through July? Lol no

Yeah, 4+ months of stay-at-home orders will not be tolerated well by many.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Something needs to be done about the California menace making decisions that impact the other 90% of us. Cancelling school for the fall semester is unacceptable. Severe repercussions are sorely needed for these traitors.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

In vaccine news Oxford is so far they're reporting those who got the actual vaccine in their study are doing fine and none showed any bad effects So far 4 Vaccine candidates are doing well one from Pfizer, Oxford, Moderna and Sinovac Biotech.

Though I don't expect a vaccine to be distributed before years end

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

In vaccine news Oxford is so far they're reporting those who got the actual vaccine in their study are doing fine and none showed any bad effects So far 4 Vaccine candidates are doing well one from Pfizer, Oxford, Moderna and Sinovac Biotech.

Though I don't expect a vaccine to be distributed before years end

But Oxford isn’t doing human challenge trials, right?  They just need to wait to see if people in the trials get infected naturally.  I wonder if any of the potential human challenge trials will get useable results sooner.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

In vaccine news Oxford is so far they're reporting those who got the actual vaccine in their study are doing fine and none showed any bad effects So far 4 Vaccine candidates are doing well one from Pfizer, Oxford, Moderna and Sinovac Biotech.

Though I don't expect a vaccine to be distributed before years end

But Oxford isn’t doing human challenge trials, right?  They just need to wait to see if people in the trials get infected naturally.  I wonder if any of the potential human challenge trials will get useable results sooner.

It’s unethical usually. Given the pandemic...who knows what they are doing. Phase III trials take AT MINIMUM 3 months to get conclusive data, none are in Phase III trials atm, if any do challenge trials you could get results in a month.

Sinovac is in Phase I-II mixed stage at this point, they are asking the WHO to allow emergency authorization to move to Phase III trials in hard hit countries.

Moderna is the one of the big 4 I think has the biggest chance to fail given they're using new tech and using mRNA