COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

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The anti-vaccers comprise more than a third of our total population, and most of them are Republicans:

Poll: 35% of Americans, most Republicans would reject COVID-19 vaccine

More than one-third of U.S. adults and a majority of Republicans would not receive a free, government-approved COVID-19 vaccine if one was presently available, a Gallup survey showed Friday.

According to the poll, 35% of U.S. adults said they would not get the vaccine, compared to 65% who said they would. The share was the exact same 65/35 split among both men and women.

The age group that expressed the most skepticism about a vaccine were those between 50 and 64 years old (59%) -- and the group that was most accepting of a vaccine were between 18 and 29 (76%).

By race, the survey found that two-thirds of White Americans (67%) and 59% of non-Whites would take the vaccine, despite the virus more heavily affecting the Black and Latino communities.

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Have we finally turned a corner on the coronavirus?

Pandemic seems to be leveling off in U.S., but numbers remain troublingly high, experts say

The coronavirus pandemic appears to be leveling off in most of the United States, with new cases, deaths and hospitalizations all down over the past week, but the plateau leaves the country with high and persistent infection numbers and worries of a post-Labor Day surge in some areas.

The number of new cases reported daily peaked above 70,000 in July and has been falling since. The decline now seems to be slowing, with the daily number hovering near 40,000 for more than a week, a review of nationwide data showed Tuesday. That is one sign that the infection may be leveling off.

Although that is good news, the numbers suggest continued high levels of infection and a long road ahead, particularly as cold weather and the flu season approach. Without a vaccine or a major advance in treatment, significant reductions in new cases would probably require voluntary or mandated changes in behavior that experts say are unlikely six months into the public health crisis.

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So I think we have all heard how the Sturgis motorcycle rally proved to be a super-spreader event -for comparison's sake, have there been any updated figures on the impact of Black Lives Matter protests on the spread of COVID-19?  The only articles I can find on the subject are from late June into early July, which all say that the protests somehow did not become super-spreader events.  Welcome as the news was, I thought it was a bit early at the time to be drawing those conclusions.  It's been more than two months now since then.  Has anything changed?

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Thanks to Trump and his goons, we increasingly cannot trust anything coming out of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention anymore:

Trump officials interfered with CDC reports on Covid-19
The politically appointed HHS spokesperson and his team demanded and received the right to review CDC’s scientific reports to health professionals.

The health department’s politically appointed communications aides have demanded the right to review and seek changes to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s weekly scientific reports charting the progress of the coronavirus pandemic, in what officials characterized as an attempt to intimidate the reports’ authors and water down their communications to health professionals.

In some cases, emails from communications aides to CDC Director Robert Redfield and other senior officials openly complained that the agency’s reports would undermine President Donald Trump's optimistic messages about the outbreak, according to emails reviewed by POLITICO and three people familiar with the situation.

CDC officials have fought back against the most sweeping changes, but have increasingly agreed to allow the political officials to review the reports and, in a few cases, compromised on the wording, according to three people familiar with the exchanges. The communications aides’ efforts to change the language in the CDC’s reports have been constant across the summer and continued as recently as Friday afternoon.

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CDC director says COVID vaccine won't be widely available until mid-2021

The director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) told lawmakers on Wednesday that he doesn't expect a potential COVID-19 vaccine to be available for most Americans until the middle of next year, even as the government unveiled plans to begin distributing a vaccine as soon as possible.

At a hearing before a Senate subcommittee on Capitol Hill, CDC Director Robert Redfield said any vaccine is unlikely to be widely available to most Americans before the summer or early fall of 2021, given initial constraints on supplies if and when a vaccine wins approval from the Food and Drug Administration (FDA).

"I think there will be vaccine that will initially be available some time between November and December, but very limited supply, and it will have to be prioritized," Redfield told lawmakers. "If you're asking me when is it going to be generally available to the American public so we can begin to take advantage of vaccine to get back to our regular life, I think we're probably looking at late second quarter, third quarter 2021."

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Children and young adults of color are dying from COVID-19 at higher rates

Children and young adults of color are dying from the coronavirus pandemic at a much higher rate than their peers, according to new data from the CDC. In more than 390,000 cases and 121 adolescent COVID-19 deaths analyzed by researchers, over 78% of the deceased were children of color.

In the CDC's weekly morbidity and mortality report, researchers inspected young adult deaths under 21 that were reported between February 12 and July 31, which showed a widening racial disparity. Of the children who died, 45% were Hispanic, 29% were Black, and 4% were American Indian or Native Alaskan. Even more concerning, a larger percentage of deaths were among young adults aged 18-20, the most prevalent age for college-bound students.

The race disparity surrounding the novel coronavirus outbreak has historically gone beyond adolescents, who represent a smaller percentage of at-risk individuals. In late March, a peak in the coronavirus outbreak, Black and Hispanic individuals made up one-third of hospitalized individuals. However, research has found COVID-19 kills people of color under 65 at twice the rate of their White counterparts, while people of color make up less than 45% of COVID-19 deaths at all ages.

Also:

Communities of color hit hardest financially by COVID-19: study

Communities of color have been hit the hardest by economic and social challenges spurred by the coronavirus pandemic, according to a new study, adding to the well-documented toll the pandemic has had on health within these communities.

The new study — conducted by NPR, Harvard and the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation — found that 72 percent of Latino households, 60 percent of Black households and 55 percent of Native American households reported “serious financial problems.”

Those problems included struggling to pay credit card bills, rent and utilities and being able to afford food. Notably, across the board, the most common problem was having little to no savings. Roughly 4 in 10 Black, Latino and Native American households said that most if not all of their savings have been used during the pandemic.

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Just think of all those lives that could have been saved:

US could have averted 40% of Covid deaths, says panel examining Trump's policies
The country began the pandemic with a degraded public health infrastructure, leading to more deaths than other high-income countries

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We have officially lost as many Americans as we had during World War II, the Korean War, and the Vietnam War combined, a lingering legacy from Trump's mismanagement of the coronavirus pandemic:

US tops 500,000 virus deaths, matching the toll of 3 wars

Fortunately, it is highly unlikely that we will surpass the combined death toll (North and South) we suffered from the American Civil War.  

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We have officially lost as many Americans as we had during World War II, the Korean War, and the Vietnam War combined, a lingering legacy from Trump's mismanagement of the coronavirus pandemic:

US tops 500,000 virus deaths, matching the toll of 3 wars

Fortunately, it is highly unlikely that we will surpass the combined death toll (North and South) we suffered from the American Civil War.  

Why do you say that? I thought the models were showing another 100K deaths.

The University of Washington model is showing less than that, around 89,000 additional deaths by June 1.  So we could potentially be rounding a corner, finally.   

That said, there are caveats:

But experts warn that dangerous variants could cause the trend to reverse itself. And some experts say not enough Americans have been inoculated yet for the vaccine to be making much of a difference.

Instead, the drop-off in deaths and cases has been attributed to the passing of the holidays; the cold and bleak days of midwinter, when many people stay home; and better adherence to mask rules and social distancing.

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Wow, he's actually doing the right thing:

Trump urges Americans to get Covid-19 vaccine: 'I would recommend it'

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This is why we have congressional oversight:

Investigators say a Trump aide took it upon himself to award hefty pandemic contracts.

The Trump administration was so slow to prepare for the coronavirus pandemic that a top aide to President Donald J. Trump took matters into his own hands.

That aide, Peter Navarro, Mr. Trump’s deputy assistant and trade adviser, personally steered hundreds of millions of dollars in contracts for pandemic supplies to politically connected or novice companies, a preliminary investigation by House Democrats has found.

Mr. Navarro sounded an early alarm about supply shortages, according to emails and other documents released by a House committee overseeing the federal coronavirus response. In a memo dated March 1, 2020, he complained that “movement has been slow.”

After that, documents show, he prodded the Federal Emergency Management Agency to award a $96 million sole-source contract for respirators to AirBoss Defense Group, a defense industry supplier, telling a company executive “everything you requested is OK,” even though no contract had been signed.

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One in 4 U.S. adults is now fully vaccinated
New Mexico and South Dakota lead the country in full vaccinations.

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Better buy those plane tickets now while they're still affordable:

E.U. Set to Let Vaccinated U.S. Tourists Visit This Summer

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https://twitter.com/NBCNewYork/status/1386787185907666945

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https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1389327388824293377

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https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1390116604302725122

And here is a link for those who aren't Washington Post subscribers.

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Good news for our younger members (and their parents, of course):

FDA authorizes Pfizer coronavirus vaccine for adolescents 12 to 15 years old

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The fate of the pandemic here is now resting on the shoulders of parents nationwide:

https://twitter.com/DanRodricks/status/1393576672985812996

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According to NPR, just over a third of Americans nationally are fully vaccinated as of yesterday:

How Is The COVID-19 Vaccination Campaign Going In Your State?

Since COVID-19 vaccine distribution began in the United States on Dec. 14, more than 268 million doses have been administered, fully vaccinating over 120 million people or 36.2% of the total U.S. population.

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It's already here:  

Coronavirus variant that first appeared in India arrives in the US. Here's what to know.

But if you're already vaccinated, fear not.

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A week old, but I haven't seen it posted yet:

https://twitter.com/medical_xpress/status/1392117294495674379

After analyzing their data, the researchers found major discrepancies between official death tallies and those they found through their calculations. Egypt, for example, reported just over 13,000 deaths, while the IHME number came to 170,000. Another example was Russia—officials there reported just over 100,000 deaths, while the team at IHME found the number was more likely over 600,000. The researchers also found that the actual death toll in the U.S. is likely nearly twice as high as official reports—as of May 3, it was 574,043. They found it more likely the number is closer to 905,289. All told, the researchers found that worldwide death estimates have been far lower than actual deaths. The WHO has reported the worldwide death toll (which has been calculated using each country's official tallies) as 3.25 million people as of May 6. The IHME team found the number is much likely closer to 6.93 million.

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A week old, but I haven't seen it posted yet:

https://twitter.com/medical_xpress/status/1392117294495674379

After analyzing their data, the researchers found major discrepancies between official death tallies and those they found through their calculations. Egypt, for example, reported just over 13,000 deaths, while the IHME number came to 170,000. Another example was Russia—officials there reported just over 100,000 deaths, while the team at IHME found the number was more likely over 600,000. The researchers also found that the actual death toll in the U.S. is likely nearly twice as high as official reports—as of May 3, it was 574,043. They found it more likely the number is closer to 905,289. All told, the researchers found that worldwide death estimates have been far lower than actual deaths. The WHO has reported the worldwide death toll (which has been calculated using each country's official tallies) as 3.25 million people as of May 6. The IHME team found the number is much likely closer to 6.93 million.

Looks like the World Health Organization is realizing they lowballed their figures:

Real COVID-19 death toll could be 'two to three' times above official stats: WHO

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African-Americans still skeptical of the COVID vaccine despite Biden's best efforts:

Biden’s vaccine push fails to gain traction with African Americans
Less than a quarter of Black Americans had received their first Covid-19 shot as of June 3. That's less than other racial and ethnic groups tracked by the CDC.

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African-Americans still skeptical of the COVID vaccine despite Biden's best efforts:

Biden’s vaccine push fails to gain traction with African Americans
Less than a quarter of Black Americans had received their first Covid-19 shot as of June 3. That's less than other racial and ethnic groups tracked by the CDC.

As I've noted before, this vaccine hesitancy has reached into my own family. Neither my father nor my uncle have gotten the vaccine. They're not convinced of its efficacy, and don't feel comfortable with getting it now. Conversely, I am fully vaccinated, as is my stepmother. Blacks have long tended to be suspicious of doctors and of our country's medical system in general, and the reasons for this are grounded in the discriminatory practices and unfair experiments many blacks experienced in the past, going back to the days of slavery.

That suspicion must be very deep indeed, since apparently even former President Obama hasn't been able to convince them to take it.

 

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Get ready for that third booster shot, folks:

Pfizer ready to make COVID vaccines for new variants, CEO says