COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron
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Author Topic: COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron  (Read 526425 times)
jimrtex
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« Reply #1150 on: October 24, 2020, 04:48:49 PM »

On that list you post, the US as a whole is easily the least densely populated country.

Argentina has actually the lowest population density in that list

EDIT: even Brazil has a lowest population density than the US
Brazil doesn't really count as large swaths of the country are virtually uninhabited.
A more meaningful metric would be average density per person. Take the population within a certain radius of an individual (10 miles say), sum these values for all persons and divide by the total number of persons.
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Meclazine for Israel
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« Reply #1151 on: October 24, 2020, 04:55:22 PM »

On that list you post, the US as a whole is easily the least densely populated country.

Argentina has actually the lowest population density in that list

EDIT: even Brazil has a lowest population density than the US
Brazil doesn't really count as large swaths of the country are virtually uninhabited.

That's not true. I have worked in Brazil in remote exploration, and there are people in all areas no matter where you go. West Africa was the same.

You cant argue one thing. Get it wrong, and then when challenged by scientific facts, back it up with more wrong information.

That is simply providing misinformation twice based on lack of knowledge.
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It’s so Joever
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« Reply #1152 on: October 24, 2020, 05:26:50 PM »

This is why we use physiological population density as well, kids.

With that metric, Brazil is higher and the USA is lower. Of course, Argentina is still lower than both.
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It’s so Joever
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« Reply #1153 on: October 24, 2020, 05:31:03 PM »

On that list you post, the US as a whole is easily the least densely populated country.

Argentina has actually the lowest population density in that list

EDIT: even Brazil has a lowest population density than the US
Brazil doesn't really count as large swaths of the country are virtually uninhabited.

That's not true. I have worked in Brazil in remote exploration, and there are people in all areas no matter where you go. West Africa was the same.

You cant argue one thing. Get it wrong, and then when challenged by scientific facts, back it up with more wrong information.

That is simply providing misinformation twice based on lack of knowledge.
Yes, there are a few people everywhere, but they are a tiny anomaly when looked at through a nationwide lens.

That’s why he said “virtually”, as while there are technically people, many of those areas are still very close to uninhabited in relation to the rest of the country.
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emailking
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« Reply #1154 on: October 24, 2020, 07:10:51 PM »


If we had treated this like a war from the start, rather than a series of millions of individual medical choices, we could have solved this pandemic months ago with a fraction of the death we have already seen.  But a war requires volunteers who are willing to risk their own individual well-being for the benefit of the safety and survival of the whole of society.  Those volunteers were readily available.  You can see almost 40,000 of them (myself included) signed up just on the 1DaySooner website.  But almost any suggestion to go down that path was immediately treated as somehow unthinkable and never even subject to serious discussion.



I applaud your courage. A trait more and more men are losing by the day.

Is that supposed to be a knock against people who won't intentionally infect themselves with a disease? 🤔
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #1155 on: October 24, 2020, 09:04:36 PM »

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 10/24 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.
  • IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.
  • IE: What's the overall change in the total?

Older Numbers (Hidden in spoiler mode to make the post more compact)


10/11: <Sunday>
  • Cases: 7,991,069 (+45,564 | ΔW Change: ↑26.34% | Σ Increase: ↑0.57%)
  • Deaths: 219,695 (+413 | ΔW Change: ↑23.65% | Σ Increase: ↑0.19%)

10/12: <M>
  • Cases: 8,037,789 (+46,720 | ΔW Change: ↑9.33% | Σ Increase: ↑0.58%)
  • Deaths: 220,011 (+316 | ΔW Change: ↓24.94% | Σ Increase: ↑0.14%)

10/13: <T>
  • Cases: 8,090,080 (+52,291 | ΔW Change: ↓2.22% | Σ Increase: ↑0.65%)
  • Deaths: 220,841 (+830 | ΔW Change: ↓13.72% | Σ Increase: ↑0.38%)

10/14: <W>
  • Cases: 8,150,043 (+59,963 | ΔW Change: ↑12.13% | Σ Increase: ↑0.74%)
  • Deaths: 221,843 (+1,002 | ΔW Change: ↑4.16% | Σ Increase: ↑0.45%)

10/15: <Þ>
  • Cases: 8,216,315 (+66,272 | ΔW Change: ↑15.51% | Σ Increase: ↑0.81%)
  • Deaths: 222,717 (+874 | ΔW Change: ↓8.39% | Σ Increase: ↑0.39%)

10/16: <F>
  • Cases: 8,286,824 (+70,509 | ΔW Change: ↑15.82% | Σ Increase: ↑0.86%)
  • Deaths: 223,625 (+908 | ΔW Change: ↓0.22% | Σ Increase: ↑0.41%)

10/17: <S>
  • Cases: 8,342,665 (+55,841 | ΔW Change: ↑9.43% | Σ Increase: ↑0.67%)
  • Deaths: 224,282 (+657 | ΔW Change: ↑3.63% | Σ Increase: ↑0.29%)

10/18: <Sunday>
  • Cases: 8,387,790 (+45,125 | ΔW Change: ↓0.96% | Σ Increase: ↑0.54%)
  • Deaths: 224,730 (+448 | ΔW Change: ↑8.47% | Σ Increase: ↑0.20%)

10/19: <M>
  • Cases: 8,456,653 (+68,863 | ΔW Change: ↑47.40% | Σ Increase: ↑0.82%)
  • Deaths: 225,222 (+492 | ΔW Change: ↑55.70% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)

10/20: <T>
  • Cases: 8,519,665 (+63,012 | ΔW Change: ↑17.01% | Σ Increase: ↑0.75%)
  • Deaths: 226,138 (+916 | ΔW Change: ↑10.36% | Σ Increase: ↑0.41%)

10/21: <W>
  • Cases: 8,584,819 (+65,154 | ΔW Change: ↑8.66% | Σ Increase: ↑0.76%)
  • Deaths: 227,409 (+1,271 | ΔW Change: ↑26.85% | Σ Increase: ↑0.56%)

10/22: <Þ>
  • Cases: 8,661,651 (+76,832 | ΔW Change: ↑15.93% | Σ Increase: ↑0.89%)
  • Deaths: 228,381 (+972 | ΔW Change: ↑11.21% | Σ Increase: ↑0.43%)

10/23 (Yesterday): <F>
  • Cases: 8,746,953 (+85,302 | ΔW Change: ↑20.98% | Σ Increase: ↑0.98%)
  • Deaths: 229,284 (+903 | ΔW Change: ↓0.55% | Σ Increase: ↑0.40%)

10/24 (Today): <S>
  • Cases: 8,827,932 (+80,979 | ΔW Change: ↑45.02% | Σ Increase: ↑0.93%)
  • Deaths: 230,068 (+784 | ΔW Change: ↑19.33% | Σ Increase: ↑0.34%)
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emailking
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« Reply #1156 on: October 24, 2020, 11:09:20 PM »

That's a huge increase for Saturday and it looks like only 1-2K may be backfill.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #1157 on: October 25, 2020, 12:59:30 AM »

That's a huge increase for Saturday and it looks like only 1-2K may be backfill.

Yep, we're in red alert territory, and the message that the present administration is sending by continually holding rallies with no prevention measures in place is alarming.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #1158 on: October 25, 2020, 06:53:28 AM »

Illinois has been releasing a whole bunch of serology tests lately.
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Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin
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« Reply #1159 on: October 25, 2020, 07:35:32 AM »

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Torrain
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« Reply #1160 on: October 25, 2020, 09:36:38 AM »

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Torrain
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« Reply #1161 on: October 25, 2020, 09:51:00 AM »



F[inks] this.

Seriously, this is not how any competent developed nation in the world acts. Prevention is always better than a cure, and in the absence of a serious cure at the present time, prevention is vital to ensure that the reservoir of COVID-19 in the population is as small as possible.

If Meadows gets his way, then America won't be rid of COVID-19 for decades, maybe ever. Every few years, an infected fellow will drive from a remote spot to his/her/their nearest city, and seed a mini outbreak, costing needless lives and resources in the process. The base of infected persons will be so widespread, the mutations so varied from one region to the next, that short of universal/mandatory vaccination, which is politically unworkable (trust me, I've sat through enough seminars on this topic), there could be infectious pockets for the next century.

This policy will lead to many times the number of deaths we're already seeing, with no benefits (the economy will continue to haemorrhage jobs and investor confidence).

Bad public health plan costs lives, having no public health plan is like pouring petroleum on a forest fire.





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Fmr. Gov. NickG
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« Reply #1162 on: October 25, 2020, 10:08:19 AM »



F[inks] this.

Seriously, this is not how any competent developed nation in the world acts.


France and Spain and Italy and the UK and the Netherlands and Belgium (among many others) all have way more per capita new cases than the US does right now.  Would you consider these competent developed nations?
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #1163 on: October 25, 2020, 12:21:49 PM »

We're not having our hospitals full up yet.
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Torrain
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« Reply #1164 on: October 25, 2020, 01:01:28 PM »


F[inks] this.

Seriously, this is not how any competent developed nation in the world acts.


France and Spain and Italy and the UK and the Netherlands and Belgium (among many others) all have way more per capita new cases than the US does right now.  Would you consider these competent developed nations?

I do. Because they are actually working to suppress spread of the virus. Also, 'right now' is pretty important here. The UK only passed the US again in the past fortnight, before that the US was ahead in this metric since March.

Please. Letting a virus spread has never been a good idea when the stakes are this high. The AIDS crisis became a pandemic because Reagan's team ignored it until it became a public health disaster. Measles outbreaks have become rampant thanks to vaccine refusal and an inclination to ignore public health advice. COVID-19 is a coronavirus, and all evidence suggests that it will continue to mutate year after year, rendering vaccines ineffective after a couple of years.

For the vaccines to be effective, it would far better to constrict the disease to a small infected population, so that they could be vaccinated. Otherwise, new strains and quasispecies of the virus will continue to develop every few months, and thwart efforts to treat it much in the same way influenza does. We have barely any effective antivirals against influenza, and require new vaccines every year.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1165 on: October 25, 2020, 04:50:15 PM »

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palandio
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« Reply #1166 on: October 25, 2020, 05:01:11 PM »


F[inks] this.

Seriously, this is not how any competent developed nation in the world acts.


France and Spain and Italy and the UK and the Netherlands and Belgium (among many others) all have way more per capita new cases than the US does right now.  Would you consider these competent developed nations?

I do. Because they are actually working to suppress spread of the virus. Also, 'right now' is pretty important here. The UK only passed the US again in the past fortnight, before that the US was ahead in this metric since March.

Please. Letting a virus spread has never been a good idea when the stakes are this high. The AIDS crisis became a pandemic because Reagan's team ignored it until it became a public health disaster. Measles outbreaks have become rampant thanks to vaccine refusal and an inclination to ignore public health advice. COVID-19 is a coronavirus, and all evidence suggests that it will continue to mutate year after year, rendering vaccines ineffective after a couple of years.

For the vaccines to be effective, it would far better to constrict the disease to a small infected population, so that they could be vaccinated. Otherwise, new strains and quasispecies of the virus will continue to develop every few months, and thwart efforts to treat it much in the same way influenza does. We have barely any effective antivirals against influenza, and require new vaccines every year.
What you are proposing is not doable with contact restrictions. Accepting reality is not a policy that kills people, instead it will save us from a lot of bitterness and unrest.

And yes, I hope that as few people as possible will get sick from COVID-19 and we should try to hold up the spread of the virus and the collapse of our health systems. But the sooner we say goodbye to the illusion of suppressing the virus at this stage of the epidemic, the healthier.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #1167 on: October 25, 2020, 05:15:43 PM »

That's odd. I went to Utah just a couple weeks ago, and most folks acted as if there never was a pandemic. A few people wore masks indoors, but that was about it. But in some other states on this trip, masks were virtually unheard of.
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Alcibiades
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« Reply #1168 on: October 25, 2020, 05:38:06 PM »
« Edited: October 25, 2020, 06:06:37 PM by Alcibiades »


F[inks] this.

Seriously, this is not how any competent developed nation in the world acts.


France and Spain and Italy and the UK and the Netherlands and Belgium (among many others) all have way more per capita new cases than the US does right now.  Would you consider these competent developed nations?

I do. Because they are actually working to suppress spread of the virus. Also, 'right now' is pretty important here. The UK only passed the US again in the past fortnight, before that the US was ahead in this metric since March.

Please. Letting a virus spread has never been a good idea when the stakes are this high. The AIDS crisis became a pandemic because Reagan's team ignored it until it became a public health disaster. Measles outbreaks have become rampant thanks to vaccine refusal and an inclination to ignore public health advice. COVID-19 is a coronavirus, and all evidence suggests that it will continue to mutate year after year, rendering vaccines ineffective after a couple of years.

For the vaccines to be effective, it would far better to constrict the disease to a small infected population, so that they could be vaccinated. Otherwise, new strains and quasispecies of the virus will continue to develop every few months, and thwart efforts to treat it much in the same way influenza does. We have barely any effective antivirals against influenza, and require new vaccines every year.

Actually the evidence indicates that SARS-CoV-2 is relatively stable and is not showing signs of mutating anywhere near as much as, say, influenza. That is not to say that people will not gave to be re-vaccinated quite often, but this will be because the effects of the vaccine wear off, and it is not likely that new vaccines will have to be produced to deal with mutations.
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Torrain
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« Reply #1169 on: October 25, 2020, 06:26:52 PM »


F[inks] this.

Seriously, this is not how any competent developed nation in the world acts.


France and Spain and Italy and the UK and the Netherlands and Belgium (among many others) all have way more per capita new cases than the US does right now.  Would you consider these competent developed nations?

I do. Because they are actually working to suppress spread of the virus. Also, 'right now' is pretty important here. The UK only passed the US again in the past fortnight, before that the US was ahead in this metric since March.

Please. Letting a virus spread has never been a good idea when the stakes are this high. The AIDS crisis became a pandemic because Reagan's team ignored it until it became a public health disaster. Measles outbreaks have become rampant thanks to vaccine refusal and an inclination to ignore public health advice. COVID-19 is a coronavirus, and all evidence suggests that it will continue to mutate year after year, rendering vaccines ineffective after a couple of years.

For the vaccines to be effective, it would far better to constrict the disease to a small infected population, so that they could be vaccinated. Otherwise, new strains and quasispecies of the virus will continue to develop every few months, and thwart efforts to treat it much in the same way influenza does. We have barely any effective antivirals against influenza, and require new vaccines every year.

Actually the evidence indicates that SARS-CoV-2 is relatively stable and is not showing signs of mutating anywhere near as much as, say, influenza. That is not to say that people will not gave to be re-vaccinated quite often, but this will be because the effects of the vaccine wear off, and it is not likely that new vaccines will have to be produced to deal with mutations.

What do you mean? Loss of vaccine effectiveness is precisely due to viral mutation, genomic recombination etc. Loss of immune memory can factor into some vaccines, but only those from less immunogenic sources (subunit vaccines etc).

Mutation rates are not as bad as influenza, but we have enough experience with circulating coronaviruses to know that there is a real and present risk that this pathogen keeps evading us year after year.

We shouldn’t be seeing a fully modified resistant strain at this point, that would be wild. This virus has only been monitored for nine months, since it’s genetic sequencing in late Feb/early March. The identification of new variants (and recurring mutations of specific gene segments, identified in discrete populations) is a cause for concern though.

I’m not trying to be a doomer, all I was asking was that we take this seriously, and not practise the laissez-faire cr*p Mark Meadows is pushing.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1170 on: October 25, 2020, 08:45:06 PM »

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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #1171 on: October 25, 2020, 09:07:39 PM »

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 10/25 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.
  • IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.
  • IE: What's the overall change in the total?

Older Numbers (Hidden in spoiler mode to make the post more compact)


10/18: <Sunday>
  • Cases: 8,387,790 (+45,125 | ΔW Change: ↓0.96% | Σ Increase: ↑0.54%)
  • Deaths: 224,730 (+448 | ΔW Change: ↑8.47% | Σ Increase: ↑0.20%)

10/19: <M>
  • Cases: 8,456,653 (+68,863 | ΔW Change: ↑47.40% | Σ Increase: ↑0.82%)
  • Deaths: 225,222 (+492 | ΔW Change: ↑55.70% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)

10/20: <T>
  • Cases: 8,519,665 (+63,012 | ΔW Change: ↑17.01% | Σ Increase: ↑0.75%)
  • Deaths: 226,138 (+916 | ΔW Change: ↑10.36% | Σ Increase: ↑0.41%)

10/21: <W>
  • Cases: 8,584,819 (+65,154 | ΔW Change: ↑8.66% | Σ Increase: ↑0.76%)
  • Deaths: 227,409 (+1,271 | ΔW Change: ↑26.85% | Σ Increase: ↑0.56%)

10/22: <Þ>
  • Cases: 8,661,651 (+76,832 | ΔW Change: ↑15.93% | Σ Increase: ↑0.89%)
  • Deaths: 228,381 (+972 | ΔW Change: ↑11.21% | Σ Increase: ↑0.43%)

10/23: <F>
  • Cases: 8,746,953 (+85,302 | ΔW Change: ↑20.98% | Σ Increase: ↑0.98%)
  • Deaths: 229,284 (+903 | ΔW Change: ↓0.55% | Σ Increase: ↑0.40%)

10/24 (Yesterday): <S>
  • Cases: 8,827,932 (+80,979 | ΔW Change: ↑45.02% | Σ Increase: ↑0.93%)
  • Deaths: 230,068 (+784 | ΔW Change: ↑19.33% | Σ Increase: ↑0.34%)

10/25 (Today): <Sunday>
  • Cases: 8,889,179 (+61,247 | ΔW Change: ↑35.73% | Σ Increase: ↑0.69%)
  • Deaths: 230,510 (+442 | ΔW Change: ↓1.34% | Σ Increase: ↑0.19%)
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emailking
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« Reply #1172 on: October 26, 2020, 07:24:32 AM »

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Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin
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« Reply #1173 on: October 26, 2020, 07:59:33 AM »

One year ago:
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #1174 on: October 26, 2020, 09:37:30 AM »

Our preparation was based on avian flu and in retrospect was lacking, with no plans for any lockdown.
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