COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron
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  COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron
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Author Topic: COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron  (Read 526236 times)
roxas11
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« Reply #3775 on: April 24, 2021, 12:36:02 PM »

Glad about the trends, but given how far off the rails things have gotten in India and Brazil wouldn't be surprised to see one more modest wave to work it way through the US.

I'm not sure I buy the comparison with the India or Brazil.


In India case they completely dropped their guard thanks to seeing very low cases by January. Their numbers were far lower than anything we have seen in the US and those low numbers made the Indian government believe that they did not even have to prepare for a possible second wave. In fact the government was so confident that the worst was behind them they allowed thousands of people to gather by the Ganges River


In Brazil case President Bolsonaro response to covid has always been awful, so sadly it is not surprising that things are still not going well for them
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jfern
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« Reply #3776 on: April 24, 2021, 05:58:25 PM »



This is an excellent though somewhat long thread describing how things got out of control in India.  Unrolled version: https://threader.app/thread/1385546644922507265

The government response strongly reminds me of what I picture a second Trump administration would have done, and where the U.S. would be now.

Eh, it'd be about the same really. More dumb tweets, but also no pause of Johnson and Johnson.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #3777 on: April 24, 2021, 05:59:09 PM »


The depressing part is that this ended up being fairly irrelevant in the end.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #3778 on: April 24, 2021, 07:10:24 PM »


The predicted Biden surge among senior voters certainly did not materialize. If it had, he would have won Arizona and Georgia by more and would have come closer in Florida, Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina, and Texas.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #3779 on: April 24, 2021, 07:27:11 PM »
« Edited: April 24, 2021, 07:36:03 PM by Roll Roons »


The predicted Biden surge among senior voters certainly did not materialize. If it had, he would have won Arizona and Georgia by more and would have come closer in Florida, Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina, and Texas.


Biden did improve with seniors. It just wasn't by as much as polls indicated. The swing he got probably pushed him over the finish line.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #3780 on: April 24, 2021, 07:38:26 PM »


The predicted Biden surge among senior voters certainly did not materialize. If it had, he would have won Arizona and Georgia by more and would have come closer in Florida, Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina, and Texas.


Biden did improve with seniors. It just wasn't by as much as polls indicated. The swing he got probably pushed him over the finish line.

That's what I meant. In Florida, for example, Biden registered minor improvements in senior-heavy areas of the state (i.e. Pasco, Hernando, Sumter, Collier), and flipped both Duval and Seminole Counties, but his improvements in those areas weren't enough to offset Trump's massive gains in Miami-Dade, and thereby cost him the state.
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Person Man
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« Reply #3781 on: April 24, 2021, 09:29:49 PM »


The predicted Biden surge among senior voters certainly did not materialize. If it had, he would have won Arizona and Georgia by more and would have come closer in Florida, Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina, and Texas.


Biden did improve with seniors. It just wasn't by as much as polls indicated. The swing he got probably pushed him over the finish line.

That's what I meant. In Florida, for example, Biden registered minor improvements in senior-heavy areas of the state (i.e. Pasco, Hernando, Sumter, Collier), and flipped both Duval and Seminole Counties, but his improvements in those areas weren't enough to offset Trump's massive gains in Miami-Dade, and thereby cost him the state.

Or it could of been that opposition to public health changed the vote more than support for it.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #3782 on: April 24, 2021, 09:42:52 PM »


The predicted Biden surge among senior voters certainly did not materialize. If it had, he would have won Arizona and Georgia by more and would have come closer in Florida, Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina, and Texas.


Biden did improve with seniors. It just wasn't by as much as polls indicated. The swing he got probably pushed him over the finish line.

That's what I meant. In Florida, for example, Biden registered minor improvements in senior-heavy areas of the state (i.e. Pasco, Hernando, Sumter, Collier), and flipped both Duval and Seminole Counties, but his improvements in those areas weren't enough to offset Trump's massive gains in Miami-Dade, and thereby cost him the state.

Or it could of been that opposition to public health changed the vote more than support for it.

What do you mean? That Trump was helped by opposition to the coronavirus restrictions? DeSantis, as you're well aware, certainly has taken a much lighter approach then his Democratic counterparts in California, Illinois, and New York.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #3783 on: April 24, 2021, 09:53:16 PM »

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 4/24 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.
  • IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.
  • IE:What's the overall change in the total?

Brackets []: These represent the total change for the day, including backlogged reports, if any.
  • These numbers are inflated relative to the actual reports for the day, so they are not used to calculate the comparative percentage shifts.

Older Numbers (Hidden in spoiler mode to make the post more compact)
Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.



4/11 (Last Sunday Holiday): <Sunday>
  • Cases: 31,918,591 (+48,611 | ΔW Change: ↑27.50% | Σ Increase: ↑0.15%)
  • Deaths: 575,829 (+293 | ΔW Change: ↑5.40% | Σ Increase: ↑0.04%)

4/12: <M>
  • Cases: 31,990,143 (+56,522 [+71,552] | ΔW Change: ↑12.31% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)
  • Deaths: 576,298 (+469 | ΔW Change: ↑11.67% | Σ Increase: ↑0.08%)

4/13: <T>
  • Cases: 32,070,784 (+77,720 [+80,641] | ΔW Change: ↑24.79% | Σ Increase: ↑0.25%)
  • Deaths: 577,179 (+819 [+881] | ΔW Change: ↓9.60% | Σ Increase: ↑0.15%)

4/14: <W>
  • Cases: 32,149,223 (+78,439 | ΔW Change: ↑2.13% | Σ Increase: ↑0.24%)
  • Deaths: 578,092 (+913 | ΔW Change: ↑4.58% | Σ Increase: ↑0.16%)

4/15: <Þ>
  • Cases: 32,224,139 (+74,916 | ΔW Change: ↓0.36% | Σ Increase: ↑0.23%)
  • Deaths: 578,993 (+901 | ΔW Change: ↑3.33% | Σ Increase: ↑0.16%)

4/16: <F>
  • Cases: 32,305,912 (+81,773 | ΔW Change: ↓4.21% | Σ Increase: ↑0.25%)
  • Deaths: 579,942 (+887 [+949] | ΔW Change: ↓9.86% | Σ Increase: ↑0.16%)

4/17: <S>
  • Cases: 32,372,119 (+63,581 [+66,207] | ΔW Change: ↓5.40% | Σ Increase: ↑0.20%)
  • Deaths: 580,756 (+738 [+814] | ΔW Change: ↓1.99% | Σ Increase: ↑0.14%)

4/18: <Sunday>
  • Cases: 32,404,454 (+32,335 | ΔW Change: ↓33.48% | Σ Increase: ↑0.10%)
  • Deaths: 581,061 (+305 | ΔW Change: ↑4.10% | Σ Increase: ↑0.05%)

4/19: <M>
  • Cases: 32,475,043 (+51,560 [+70,589] | ΔW Change: ↓8.78% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)
  • Deaths: 581,542 (+481 | ΔW Change: ↑2.56% | Σ Increase: ↑0.08%)

4/20: <T>
  • Cases: 32,536,470 (+61,427 | ΔW Change: ↓20.96% | Σ Increase: ↑0.19%)
  • Deaths: 582,456 (+914 | ΔW Change: ↑11.60% | Σ Increase: ↑0.16%)

4/21: <W>
  • Cases: 32,602,051 (+65,581 | ΔW Change: ↓16.39% | Σ Increase: ↑0.20%)
  • Deaths: 583,330 (+874 | ΔW Change: ↓4.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.15%)

4/22: <Þ>
  • Cases: 32,669,121 (+67,070 | ΔW Change: ↓10.47% | Σ Increase: ↑0.21%)
  • Deaths: 584,226 (+896 | ΔW Change: ↓0.55% | Σ Increase: ↑0.15%)

4/23 (Yesterday): <F>
  • Cases: 32,735,209 (+66,088 | ΔW Change: ↓19.18% | Σ Increase: ↑0.20%)
  • Deaths: 585,033 (+807 | ΔW Change: ↓9.02% | Σ Increase: ↑0.14%)

4/24 (Today): <S>
  • Cases: 32,789,653 (+54,444 | ΔW Change: ↓14.37% | Σ Increase: ↑0.17%)
  • Deaths: 585,880 (+742 [+847] | ΔW Change: ↑0.54% | Σ Increase: ↑0.14%)
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Pericles
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« Reply #3784 on: April 24, 2021, 09:57:23 PM »


Trump would have won if he'd appeared more competent on Covid. I doubt the bleach gaffe alone cost him the election, but it was symbolic of how he blew it.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #3785 on: April 25, 2021, 09:32:02 AM »


The predicted Biden surge among senior voters certainly did not materialize. If it had, he would have won Arizona and Georgia by more and would have come closer in Florida, Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina, and Texas.


Biden did improve with seniors. It just wasn't by as much as polls indicated. The swing he got probably pushed him over the finish line.

Could some of this just be the aging out of some highly conservative silent generation seniors?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3786 on: April 25, 2021, 06:51:03 PM »


Trump would have won if he'd appeared more competent on Covid. I doubt the bleach gaffe alone cost him the election, but it was symbolic of how he blew it.

You may be right, but in general those who held Trump at fault for handling COVID-19 as badly as he did had much else on which to hold him in contempt electorally. An even shift of 0.64% would have delivered Georgia, Arizona, and Wisconsin to Trump and had a tie in the Electoral College. State delegations would have decided in favor of Trump in that case. Joe Biden would have had an absolute majority in the popular vote and still lost.

Joe Biden got an impressive share of the popular vote, in fact a higher share than Ronald Reagan got in 1980. Still, Democrats run up overwhelming vote percentages in several medium-to-large states on the West Coast and in the Northeast while losing plenty of states close to the national average. This time Biden won those. 
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emailking
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« Reply #3787 on: April 25, 2021, 07:26:02 PM »

Fully vaccinated Americans will be able to vacation in the EU this summer, European Commission president tells New York Times

Quote
Americans who have been fully vaccinated against Covid-19 will be able to visit the European Union this summer, Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, said in an interview with The New York Times on Sunday.

"The Americans, as far as I can see, use European Medicines Agency-approved vaccines," von der Leyen said, according to the Times report. "This will enable free movement and the travel to the European Union."

Von der Leyen did not offer a timeline on when exactly tourist travel might open up or details on how it would occur, according to the report.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/25/us/europe-vaccinated-americans-summer-eu-vacation/index.html
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #3788 on: April 25, 2021, 09:23:54 PM »

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 4/25 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.
  • IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.
  • IE:What's the overall change in the total?

Brackets []: These represent the total change for the day, including backlogged reports, if any.
  • These numbers are inflated relative to the actual reports for the day, so they are not used to calculate the comparative percentage shifts.

Older Numbers (Hidden in spoiler mode to make the post more compact)
Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.



4/18: <Sunday>
  • Cases: 32,404,454 (+32,335 | ΔW Change: ↓33.48% | Σ Increase: ↑0.10%)
  • Deaths: 581,061 (+305 | ΔW Change: ↑4.10% | Σ Increase: ↑0.05%)

4/19: <M>
  • Cases: 32,475,043 (+51,560 [+70,589] | ΔW Change: ↓8.78% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)
  • Deaths: 581,542 (+481 | ΔW Change: ↑2.56% | Σ Increase: ↑0.08%)

4/20: <T>
  • Cases: 32,536,470 (+61,427 | ΔW Change: ↓20.96% | Σ Increase: ↑0.19%)
  • Deaths: 582,456 (+914 | ΔW Change: ↑11.60% | Σ Increase: ↑0.16%)

4/21: <W>
  • Cases: 32,602,051 (+65,581 | ΔW Change: ↓16.39% | Σ Increase: ↑0.20%)
  • Deaths: 583,330 (+874 | ΔW Change: ↓4.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.15%)

4/22: <Þ>
  • Cases: 32,669,121 (+67,070 | ΔW Change: ↓10.47% | Σ Increase: ↑0.21%)
  • Deaths: 584,226 (+896 | ΔW Change: ↓0.55% | Σ Increase: ↑0.15%)

4/23: <F>
  • Cases: 32,735,209 (+66,088 | ΔW Change: ↓19.18% | Σ Increase: ↑0.20%)
  • Deaths: 585,033 (+807 | ΔW Change: ↓9.02% | Σ Increase: ↑0.14%)

4/24 (Yesterday): <S>
  • Cases: 32,789,653 (+54,444 | ΔW Change: ↓14.37% | Σ Increase: ↑0.17%)
  • Deaths: 585,880 (+742 [+847] | ΔW Change: ↑0.54% | Σ Increase: ↑0.14%)

4/25 (Today): <Sunday>
  • Cases: 32,824,389 (+34,736 | ΔW Change: ↑7.43% | Σ Increase: ↑0.11%)
  • Deaths: 586,152 (+272 | ΔW Change: ↓10.82% | Σ Increase: ↑0.05%)
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Blue3
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« Reply #3789 on: April 25, 2021, 11:10:23 PM »

Change the thread title
(or lock it and start over)
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
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« Reply #3790 on: April 26, 2021, 02:51:04 AM »

^
Was already addressed a week ago (And many more times prior):

There’s no need to close this thread altogether (we don’t need a new one really) or rename it (title is creative and technically accurate). Stop requesting such.
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emailking
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« Reply #3791 on: April 26, 2021, 03:00:10 AM »

Cases in India look like they might be levelling off. Still terrible but maybe it stays under 400k/day. Deaths are still on a steep upclimb though, I guess because of the lag.
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Meclazine for Israel
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« Reply #3792 on: April 26, 2021, 03:55:56 AM »



This is an excellent though somewhat long thread describing how things got out of control in India.  Unrolled version: https://threader.app/thread/1385546644922507265

The government response strongly reminds me of what I picture a second Trump administration would have done, and where the U.S. would be now.

That is beyond mental.

We had 1 positive case in Perth the other day and that locked down 2M people.

But look at India.

This is the bad sci-fi movie scenario we thought would never happen (except for Beet).

Thoughts for all the impoverished in India who cannot escape this.
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jfern
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« Reply #3793 on: April 26, 2021, 04:47:23 AM »

This is the bad sci-fi movie scenario we thought would never happen (except for Beet).


This simulation from October 2019 had 65 million deaths.

https://www.businessinsider.com/scientist-simulated-coronavirus-pandemic-deaths-2020-1
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Meclazine for Israel
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« Reply #3794 on: April 26, 2021, 07:15:05 AM »

This is the bad sci-fi movie scenario we thought would never happen (except for Beet).


This simulation from October 2019 had 65 million deaths.

https://www.businessinsider.com/scientist-simulated-coronavirus-pandemic-deaths-2020-1

Yes,

They are in serious trouble now.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-26/australia-supplies-oxygen-ventilators-india-covid-spike/100095816

The pandemic now becomes a tsunami on certain societies.
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politicallefty
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« Reply #3795 on: April 26, 2021, 07:45:11 AM »


This is what honestly terrified me to my core a year ago for this country. I don't mean terrify in any political sense. I mean I was honestly afraid that we could have run out of ventilators and that I or someone I knew could potentially be refused treatment due to lack of resources. That would effectively mean death in almost all cases.

I am terrified for them. I support doing all we can to help, but they're so much larger then we are. They probably need localized Chinese-style lockdowns and to try to massively vaccinate areas surrounding extreme outbreaks. Vaccines are one tool we didn't have a year ago, but they're no good if we don't have enough or enough capability to administer them.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #3796 on: April 26, 2021, 12:54:47 PM »

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Frodo
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« Reply #3797 on: April 26, 2021, 04:28:41 PM »

Better buy those plane tickets now while they're still affordable:

E.U. Set to Let Vaccinated U.S. Tourists Visit This Summer
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« Reply #3798 on: April 26, 2021, 04:36:01 PM »

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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #3799 on: April 26, 2021, 05:33:06 PM »

Just when you think things can't get any stupider:


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