COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[Frodo]

Just think of all those lives that could have been saved:

US could have averted 40% of Covid deaths, says panel examining Trump's policies
The country began the pandemic with a degraded public health infrastructure, leading to more deaths than other high-income countries

[It’s so Joever]

Good news!
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/02/11/white-house-200-million-more-covid-vaccine-doses-.html

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Good news!
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/02/11/white-house-200-million-more-covid-vaccine-doses-.html

Huge improvement over the prior situation.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Chair of the Department of Medicine at UCSF:

https://twitter.com/Bob_Wachter/status/1359999494721478659

Amazing what a little competence in government can do.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 2/11 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

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1/31: <Sunday>

• Cases: 26,767,229 (+101,489 | ΔW Change: ↓25.01% | Σ Increase: ↑0.38%)
• Deaths: 452,279 (+1,898 | ΔW Change: ↑2.32% | Σ Increase: ↑0.42%)

2/1: <M>

• Cases: 26,911,375 (+144,146 | ΔW Change: ↓9.61% | Σ Increase: ↑0.54%)
• Deaths: 454,213 (+1,934 | ΔW Change: ↑1.68% | Σ Increase: ↑0.43%)

2/2: <T>

• Cases: 27,027,347 (+115,972 | ΔW Change: ↓22.49% | Σ Increase: ↑0.43%)
• Deaths: 457,856 (+3,643 | ΔW Change: ↓10.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.80%)

2/3: <W>

• Cases: 27,150,457 (+123,110 | ΔW Change: ↓20.56% | Σ Increase: ↑0.46%)
• Deaths: 461,930 (+4,074 | ΔW Change: ↑0.22% | Σ Increase: ↑0.77%)

2/4: <Þ>

• Cases: 27,273,890 (+123,433 | ΔW Change: ↓28.41% | Σ Increase: ↑0.45%)
• Deaths: 466,988 (+5,058 | ΔW Change: ↑18.96% | Σ Increase: ↑1.09%)

2/5: <F>

• Cases: 27,407,324 (+133,434 | ΔW Change: ↓23.13% | Σ Increase: ↑0.49%)
• Deaths: 470,705 (+3,417 | ΔW Change: ↓7.40% | Σ Increase: ↑0.80%)

2/6: <S>

• Cases: 27,519,636 (+112,312 | ΔW Change: ↓26.86% | Σ Increase: ↑0.41%)
• Deaths: 473,528 (+2,823 | ΔW Change: ↓3.39% | Σ Increase: ↑0.60%)

2/7: <Sunday>

• Cases: 27,611,403 (+91,767 | ΔW Change: ↓9.58% | Σ Increase: ↑0.33%)
• Deaths: 474,933 (+1,405 | ΔW Change: ↓25.97% | Σ Increase: ↑0.30%)

2/8: <M>

• Cases: 27,700,629 (+89,226 | ΔW Change: ↓38.10% | Σ Increase: ↑0.32%)
• Deaths: 476,405 (+1,472 | ΔW Change: ↓23.89% | Σ Increase: ↑0.31%)

2/9: <T>

• Cases: 27,799,756 (+99,127 | ΔW Change: ↓14.53% | Σ Increase: ↑0.36%)
• Deaths: 479,772 (+3,367 | ΔW Change: ↓7.58% | Σ Increase: ↑0.71%)

2/10 (Yesterday): <W>

• Cases: 27,897,214 (+97,458 | ΔW Change: ↓20.84% | Σ Increase: ↑0.35%)
• Deaths: 483,200 (+3,428 | ΔW Change: ↓15.86% | Σ Increase: ↑0.71%)

2/11 (Today): <Þ>

• Cases: 28,002,240 (+105,026 | ΔW Change: ↓14.91% | Σ Increase: ↑0.38%)
• Deaths: 486,922 (+3,722 | ΔW Change: ↓26.41% | Σ Increase: ↑0.77%)

[GeorgiaModerate]

^ That's now a full week with all green.

[Dr. Arch]

^ That's now a full week with all green.

A beauty if I've ever seen one.

[DINGO Joe]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 2/11 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

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1/31: <Sunday>

• Cases: 26,767,229 (+101,489 | ΔW Change: ↓25.01% | Σ Increase: ↑0.38%)
• Deaths: 452,279 (+1,898 | ΔW Change: ↑2.32% | Σ Increase: ↑0.42%)

2/1: <M>

• Cases: 26,911,375 (+144,146 | ΔW Change: ↓9.61% | Σ Increase: ↑0.54%)
• Deaths: 454,213 (+1,934 | ΔW Change: ↑1.68% | Σ Increase: ↑0.43%)

2/2: <T>

• Cases: 27,027,347 (+115,972 | ΔW Change: ↓22.49% | Σ Increase: ↑0.43%)
• Deaths: 457,856 (+3,643 | ΔW Change: ↓10.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.80%)

2/3: <W>

• Cases: 27,150,457 (+123,110 | ΔW Change: ↓20.56% | Σ Increase: ↑0.46%)
• Deaths: 461,930 (+4,074 | ΔW Change: ↑0.22% | Σ Increase: ↑0.77%)

2/4: <Þ>

• Cases: 27,273,890 (+123,433 | ΔW Change: ↓28.41% | Σ Increase: ↑0.45%)
• Deaths: 466,988 (+5,058 | ΔW Change: ↑18.96% | Σ Increase: ↑1.09%)

2/5: <F>

• Cases: 27,407,324 (+133,434 | ΔW Change: ↓23.13% | Σ Increase: ↑0.49%)
• Deaths: 470,705 (+3,417 | ΔW Change: ↓7.40% | Σ Increase: ↑0.80%)

2/6: <S>

• Cases: 27,519,636 (+112,312 | ΔW Change: ↓26.86% | Σ Increase: ↑0.41%)
• Deaths: 473,528 (+2,823 | ΔW Change: ↓3.39% | Σ Increase: ↑0.60%)

2/7: <Sunday>

• Cases: 27,611,403 (+91,767 | ΔW Change: ↓9.58% | Σ Increase: ↑0.33%)
• Deaths: 474,933 (+1,405 | ΔW Change: ↓25.97% | Σ Increase: ↑0.30%)

2/8: <M>

• Cases: 27,700,629 (+89,226 | ΔW Change: ↓38.10% | Σ Increase: ↑0.32%)
• Deaths: 476,405 (+1,472 | ΔW Change: ↓23.89% | Σ Increase: ↑0.31%)

2/9: <T>

• Cases: 27,799,756 (+99,127 | ΔW Change: ↓14.53% | Σ Increase: ↑0.36%)
• Deaths: 479,772 (+3,367 | ΔW Change: ↓7.58% | Σ Increase: ↑0.71%)

2/10 (Yesterday): <W>

• Cases: 27,897,214 (+97,458 | ΔW Change: ↓20.84% | Σ Increase: ↑0.35%)
• Deaths: 483,200 (+3,428 | ΔW Change: ↓15.86% | Σ Increase: ↑0.71%)

2/11 (Today): <Þ>

• Cases: 28,002,240 (+105,026 | ΔW Change: ↓14.91% | Σ Increase: ↑0.38%)
• Deaths: 486,922 (+3,722 | ΔW Change: ↓26.41% | Σ Increase: ↑0.77%)

Today's big backlogger was Ohio with 721 reported COVID deaths.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Hospitalizations in the U.S. just cratered below 75,000.

[GP270watch]

I hope the Biden admin keeps turning the tide against Covid-19 and its variants.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I hope the Biden admin keeps turning the tide against Covid-19 and its variants.

Are we actually finally "turning the corner" for real?

[emailking]

I hope the Biden admin keeps turning the tide against Covid-19 and its variants.

Are we actually finally "turning the corner" for real?

On the variant we've been dealing with for a year, probably. On the new strains, who knows. The vaccines are effective, but they're a lot more contagious.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

I hope the Biden admin keeps turning the tide against Covid-19 and its variants.

Are we actually finally "turning the corner" for real?

On the variant we've been dealing with for a year, probably. On the new strains, who knows. The vaccines are effective, but they're a lot more contagious.

True, but we have no real proof on whether people who have had the first variant are vulnerable to the new strains. That's the big question here.

[It’s so Joever]

I hope the Biden admin keeps turning the tide against Covid-19 and its variants.

Are we actually finally "turning the corner" for real?

On the variant we've been dealing with for a year, probably. On the new strains, who knows. The vaccines are effective, but they're a lot more contagious.

True, but we have no real proof on whether people who have had the first variant are vulnerable to the new strains. That's the big question here.

It’s possible but I would hope some immunity would transfer.

[Meclazine for Israel]

I hope the Biden admin keeps turning the tide against Covid-19 and its variants.

Are we actually finally "turning the corner" for real?

On the variant we've been dealing with for a year, probably. On the new strains, who knows. The vaccines are effective, but they're a lot more contagious.

True, but we have no real proof on whether people who have had the first variant are vulnerable to the new strains. That's the big question here.

It’s possible but I would hope some immunity would transfer.

Quite definitely. It works a bit like the following.

People develop their strongest immunity at a young age to their first flu.

If that is a H2N2 variety, then later in their life, they have a special resistance to H2N2 flu variants.

So children at 3-12 years of age in this pandemic are developing the best immunity to COVID-19 which will stay with them for life.

So the immunity level is roughly inversely proportional to their age.

As you get older, your chances of developing a strong immunity to these viruses lessen, hence the reason why the oldest will receive the vaccine first.

To learn more, this is the man with an excellent level of experience of what these things are:

Bruce E. Fleury, Ph.D.

Mysteries of the Microscopic World

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7MHT5xTkL2g

Once you have watched that and understood that stuff, then this next guy explains the answer that actually describes your comment perfectly:

Michael Worobey, Professor, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, The University of Arizona

The Genesis of the 1918 Spanish Influenza Pandemic

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=48Klc3DPdtk

Now that video is a real eye opener for the context of what is going on today and the next 50 years in terms of immunity of different age groups.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 2/12 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

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1/31: <Sunday>

• Cases: 26,767,229 (+101,489 | ΔW Change: ↓25.01% | Σ Increase: ↑0.38%)
• Deaths: 452,279 (+1,898 | ΔW Change: ↑2.32% | Σ Increase: ↑0.42%)

2/1: <M>

• Cases: 26,911,375 (+144,146 | ΔW Change: ↓9.61% | Σ Increase: ↑0.54%)
• Deaths: 454,213 (+1,934 | ΔW Change: ↑1.68% | Σ Increase: ↑0.43%)

2/2: <T>

• Cases: 27,027,347 (+115,972 | ΔW Change: ↓22.49% | Σ Increase: ↑0.43%)
• Deaths: 457,856 (+3,643 | ΔW Change: ↓10.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.80%)

2/3: <W>

• Cases: 27,150,457 (+123,110 | ΔW Change: ↓20.56% | Σ Increase: ↑0.46%)
• Deaths: 461,930 (+4,074 | ΔW Change: ↑0.22% | Σ Increase: ↑0.77%)

2/4: <Þ>

• Cases: 27,273,890 (+123,433 | ΔW Change: ↓28.41% | Σ Increase: ↑0.45%)
• Deaths: 466,988 (+5,058 | ΔW Change: ↑18.96% | Σ Increase: ↑1.09%)

2/5: <F>

• Cases: 27,407,324 (+133,434 | ΔW Change: ↓23.13% | Σ Increase: ↑0.49%)
• Deaths: 470,705 (+3,417 | ΔW Change: ↓7.40% | Σ Increase: ↑0.80%)

2/6: <S>

• Cases: 27,519,636 (+112,312 | ΔW Change: ↓26.86% | Σ Increase: ↑0.41%)
• Deaths: 473,528 (+2,823 | ΔW Change: ↓3.39% | Σ Increase: ↑0.60%)

2/7: <Sunday>

• Cases: 27,611,403 (+91,767 | ΔW Change: ↓9.58% | Σ Increase: ↑0.33%)
• Deaths: 474,933 (+1,405 | ΔW Change: ↓25.97% | Σ Increase: ↑0.30%)

2/8: <M>

• Cases: 27,700,629 (+89,226 | ΔW Change: ↓38.10% | Σ Increase: ↑0.32%)
• Deaths: 476,405 (+1,472 | ΔW Change: ↓23.89% | Σ Increase: ↑0.31%)

2/9: <T>

• Cases: 27,799,756 (+99,127 | ΔW Change: ↓14.53% | Σ Increase: ↑0.36%)
• Deaths: 479,772 (+3,367 | ΔW Change: ↓7.58% | Σ Increase: ↑0.71%)

2/10: <W>

• Cases: 27,897,214 (+97,458 | ΔW Change: ↓20.84% | Σ Increase: ↑0.35%)
• Deaths: 483,200 (+3,428 | ΔW Change: ↓15.86% | Σ Increase: ↑0.71%)

2/11 (Yesterday): <Þ>

• Cases: 28,002,240 (+105,026 | ΔW Change: ↓14.91% | Σ Increase: ↑0.38%)
• Deaths: 486,922 (+3,722 | ΔW Change: ↓26.41% | Σ Increase: ↑0.77%)

2/12 (Today): <F>

• Cases: 28,106,704 (+104,464 | ΔW Change: ↓21.71% | Σ Increase: ↑0.37%)
• Deaths: 492,521 (+2,908 [+5,599] | ΔW Change: ↓14.90% | Σ Increase: ↑1.15%)

[Dr. Arch]

Huge backlog, I imagine. This makes me wonder just how many backlogged casualties there are.

Edit: I put the full total in brackets, and the actual casualties reported today outside of the brackets.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

We're back to having very low positivity rates again. The 7-day positivity rate is the lowest since Oct. 25.

[DINGO Joe]

Huge backlog, I imagine. This makes me wonder just how many backlogged casualties there are.

Edit: I put the full total in brackets, and the actual casualties reported today outside of the brackets.

It was Ohio again, with like another 2500 added from Nov and Dec because they made a boo-boo

[DINGO Joe]

Huge backlog, I imagine. This makes me wonder just how many backlogged casualties there are.

Edit: I put the full total in brackets, and the actual casualties reported today outside of the brackets.

The CDC does provide data on total deaths reported and cause of death. though both are subject to later updates, obviously counting deaths is easier than cause of death.  Anyway, they're to the point that almost all 2020 deaths have been reported and that number will fall between 3,350,000 to 3,375,000.  The total number of death for 2019 was 2,855,000 so an increase of 500,000 deaths over 2019 is a fairly accurate estimate.  Now deaths do increase each year naturally as the boomers age and pass away though they haven't reached their peak death years yet.  Deaths increased 16,000 from 2018-19 and 26,000 from 2017-18 and 59,000 from 2016-2017.  I'm gonna say that deaths would have increase 45,000 in 2020 without COVID cause I like round numbers.  So, that would make COVID deaths account for an additional 450,000 to 475,000 I guess possibly higher if you include deaths of those who may have died anyway because of age/other conditions but also had COVID. 

If you include the first 6 weeks of this year, I'd guess the most back of the envelope estimate of total COVID deaths would be 550,000

The CDC dashboard is here

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm

Table 1 has total death info

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 2/13 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

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1/31: <Sunday>

• Cases: 26,767,229 (+101,489 | ΔW Change: ↓25.01% | Σ Increase: ↑0.38%)
• Deaths: 452,279 (+1,898 | ΔW Change: ↑2.32% | Σ Increase: ↑0.42%)

2/1: <M>

• Cases: 26,911,375 (+144,146 | ΔW Change: ↓9.61% | Σ Increase: ↑0.54%)
• Deaths: 454,213 (+1,934 | ΔW Change: ↑1.68% | Σ Increase: ↑0.43%)

2/2: <T>

• Cases: 27,027,347 (+115,972 | ΔW Change: ↓22.49% | Σ Increase: ↑0.43%)
• Deaths: 457,856 (+3,643 | ΔW Change: ↓10.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.80%)

2/3: <W>

• Cases: 27,150,457 (+123,110 | ΔW Change: ↓20.56% | Σ Increase: ↑0.46%)
• Deaths: 461,930 (+4,074 | ΔW Change: ↑0.22% | Σ Increase: ↑0.77%)

2/4: <Þ>

• Cases: 27,273,890 (+123,433 | ΔW Change: ↓28.41% | Σ Increase: ↑0.45%)
• Deaths: 466,988 (+5,058 | ΔW Change: ↑18.96% | Σ Increase: ↑1.09%)

2/5: <F>

• Cases: 27,407,324 (+133,434 | ΔW Change: ↓23.13% | Σ Increase: ↑0.49%)
• Deaths: 470,705 (+3,417 | ΔW Change: ↓7.40% | Σ Increase: ↑0.80%)

2/6: <S>

• Cases: 27,519,636 (+112,312 | ΔW Change: ↓26.86% | Σ Increase: ↑0.41%)
• Deaths: 473,528 (+2,823 | ΔW Change: ↓3.39% | Σ Increase: ↑0.60%)

2/7: <Sunday>

• Cases: 27,611,403 (+91,767 | ΔW Change: ↓9.58% | Σ Increase: ↑0.33%)
• Deaths: 474,933 (+1,405 | ΔW Change: ↓25.97% | Σ Increase: ↑0.30%)

2/8: <M>

• Cases: 27,700,629 (+89,226 | ΔW Change: ↓38.10% | Σ Increase: ↑0.32%)
• Deaths: 476,405 (+1,472 | ΔW Change: ↓23.89% | Σ Increase: ↑0.31%)

2/9: <T>

• Cases: 27,799,756 (+99,127 | ΔW Change: ↓14.53% | Σ Increase: ↑0.36%)
• Deaths: 479,772 (+3,367 | ΔW Change: ↓7.58% | Σ Increase: ↑0.71%)

2/10: <W>

• Cases: 27,897,214 (+97,458 | ΔW Change: ↓20.84% | Σ Increase: ↑0.35%)
• Deaths: 483,200 (+3,428 | ΔW Change: ↓15.86% | Σ Increase: ↑0.71%)

2/11: <Þ>

• Cases: 28,002,240 (+105,026 | ΔW Change: ↓14.91% | Σ Increase: ↑0.38%)
• Deaths: 486,922 (+3,722 | ΔW Change: ↓26.41% | Σ Increase: ↑0.77%)

2/12 (Yesterday): <F>

• Cases: 28,106,704 (+104,464 | ΔW Change: ↓21.71% | Σ Increase: ↑0.37%)
• Deaths: 492,521 (+2,908 [+5,599] | ΔW Change: ↓14.90% | Σ Increase: ↑1.15%)

2/13 (Today): <S>

• Cases: 28,196,964 (+90,260 | ΔW Change: ↓19.63% | Σ Increase: ↑0.32%)
• Deaths: 496,063 (+2,272 [+3,542] | ΔW Change: ↓19.52% | Σ Increase: ↑0.72%)

[Not Me, Us]

Incredible how quickly case numbers have dropped. Looks like deaths are starting to drop too! We may have this virus under control by summer!

[BudgieForce]

I'm pretty shocked at how anti-teachers union some of the center right politicos I follow have gotten. Apparently the teachers unions have compromised the CDC and thats why schools aren't opened(or something like that). I've had to start unfollowing some of these people because its gotten so deranged(looking at you Josh Kraushaar).

[It’s so Joever]

I'm pretty shocked at how anti-teachers union some of the center right politicos I follow have gotten. Apparently the teachers unions have compromised the CDC and thats why schools aren't opened(or something like that). I've had to start unfollowing some of these people because its gotten so deranged(looking at you Josh Kraushaar).

And then there is Forumlurker.
A “center-left” Atlas poster who became anti-teachers Union because his local Union did the opposite and negotiated a full return to schools.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Incredible how quickly case numbers have dropped. Looks like deaths are starting to drop too! We may have this virus under control by summer!

May-June looks good for the end of this thing*.

*(But I promised that last year as well)