COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[Dr. Arch]

It looks like today will be the first time we hit or come very close to hitting +40,000 cases in one day. Deaths are starting to ramp up again too.

[Roll Roons]

It looks like today will be the first time we hit or come very close to hitting +40,000 cases in one day. Deaths are starting to ramp up again too.

Deaths are actually flat compared to a week ago. There was a backlog dump from Delaware.  https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1275548130629599235

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Jordanfabian/status/1275549408042422272

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/Jordanfabian/status/1275549408042422272

Supposedly that place has a capacity of 3,000. That's half of what showed up in Tulsa. Yet it looks  more impressive having a smaller full house instead of a larger, but only enough to fill 1/3 of the venue, crowd.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I believe for the first time, Florida may be the state reporting the most deaths today (80 in FL vs. 72 in CA, though I’m not sure Cailfornia is done reporting).

In the other hand, California has already reported more than 6,000 new cases today, a record for them, while Florida’s daily cases are down somewhat from their highs during the middle of last week.

[The Free North]

Jeez, I wonder if the spike in cases we've seen had anything to do with the tens of thousands of people in the streets protesting and looting.

Its as if Trump's refusal to not wear a mask, hold rallies, and generally deny any wrongdoing has inspired the left to counter with their own levels of stupidity.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Jeez, I wonder if the spike in cases we've seen had anything to do with the tens of thousands of people in the streets protesting and looting.

Its as if Trump's refusal to not wear a mask, hold rallies, and generally deny any wrongdoing has inspired the left to counter with their own levels of stupidity.

How many times does it need to be emphasized that the virus spreads the easiest in indoor environments where social distancing and mask-wearing is not practiced. I certainly haven't seen many protests in that vein.

Additionally, the protests have occurred across the country in all 50 states, yet not every state is seeing a spike in the amount of cases. There is no real correlation.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/Jordanfabian/status/1275549408042422272

They're really trying to kill off their base four months before the election.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Now 6320 cases in California? Newsom really screwed up by rushing to open up too soon.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Now 6320 cases in California? Newsom really screwed up by rushing to open up too soon.

California is still well below the national average in case per capita, and has less than half the national average of deaths per capita.  Cases have been rising there consistently for two months with no growth in deaths.  They still have a significant week-over-week drop in deaths today.  

Southern Calfornia was inevitably going to see a surge in infections at some point, and it looks like they have successfully delayed this surge until improved testing and treatment allowed them to get through it with a dramatically lower death toll.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

not every state is seeing a spike in the amount of cases.

An oddly... optimistic... statement given your username.

Perhaps we should revise that to... "not every state is seeing a spike in the amount of cases yet."

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Latest US vs. European case and death graphs

Today was the first day in three weeks with a week-over-week increase in US deaths, although this is apparently attributable to a dump of old data in Delaware. (Excluding the old Delaware deaths would turn a 2% increase into a 6% week-over-week decline.)
  
Today also surprising saw a surprising 20% week-over-week surge in UK deaths, although the European overall averages still fell thanks to drops in Italy and France.  Perhaps underreported is the fact that European cases have also stopped declining, with no significant change in the overall averages in the last two weeks.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 6/23 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

Δ Change: Day-by-day Growth or Decline or COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

<Last Numbers for 3/26-3/28 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 3/29-4/4 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/5-4/11 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/12-4/18 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/19-4/25 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 4/26-5/2 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/3-5/9 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/10-5/16 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/17-5/23 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/24-5/30 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/31-6/6 in this post>

6/7: <Sunday>

• Cases: 2,007,449 (+20,274 | Δ Change: ↓39.93% | Σ Increase: ↑1.02%)
• Deaths: 112,469 (+412 | Δ Change: ↓38.78% | Σ Increase: ↑0.37%)

6/8:

• Cases: 2,026,493 (+19,044 | Δ Change: ↓6.07% | Σ Increase: ↑0.95%)
• Deaths: 113,055 (+586 | Δ Change: ↑42.23% | Σ Increase: ↑0.52%)

6/9:

• Cases: 2,045,549 (+19,056 | Δ Change: ↑0.06% | Σ Increase: ↑0.94%)
• Deaths: 114,148 (+1,093 | Δ Change: ↑86.52% | Σ Increase: ↑0.97%)

6/10:

• Cases: 2,066,508 (+20,959 | Δ Change: ↑9.98% | Σ Increase: ↑1.02%)
• Deaths: 115,137 (+989 | Δ Change: ↓9.52% | Σ Increase: ↑0.87%)

6/11:

• Cases: 2,089,701 (+23,193 | Δ Change: ↑10.66% | Σ Increase: ↑1.12%)
• Deaths: 116,034 (+897 | Δ Change: ↓9.30% | Σ Increase: ↑0.78%)

6/12:

• Cases: 2,116,922 (+27,221 | Δ Change: ↑17.37% | Σ Increase: ↑1.30%)
• Deaths: 116,825 (+791 | Δ Change: ↓11.82% | Σ Increase: ↑0.68%)

6/13:

• Cases: 2,142,224 (+25,302 | Δ Change: ↓7.05% | Σ Increase: ↑1.20%)
• Deaths: 117,527 (+702 | Δ Change: ↓11.25% | Σ Increase: ↑0.60%)

6/14: <Sunday>

• Cases: 2,162,144 (+19,920 | Δ Change: ↓21.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.93%)
• Deaths: 117,853 (+326 | Δ Change: ↓53.56% | Σ Increase: ↑0.28%)

6/15:

• Cases: 2,182,950 (+20,806 | Δ Change: ↑4.45% | Σ Increase: ↑0.96%)
• Deaths: 118,283 (+430 | Δ Change: ↑31.90% | Σ Increase: ↑0.36%)

6/16:

• Cases: 2,208,400 (+25,450 | Δ Change: ↑22.32% | Σ Increase: ↑1.17%)
• Deaths: 119,132 (+849 | Δ Change: ↑97.44% | Σ Increase: ↑0.72%)

6/17:

• Cases: 2,234,471 (+26,071 | Δ Change: ↑2.44% | Σ Increase: ↑1.18%)
• Deaths: 119,941 (+809 | Δ Change: ↓4.71% | Σ Increase: ↑0.68%)

6/18:

• Cases: 2,263,651 (+29,180 | Δ Change: ↑11.93% | Σ Increase: ↑1.31%)
• Deaths: 120,688 (+747 | Δ Change: ↓7.66% | Σ Increase: ↑0.62%)

6/19:

• Cases: 2,297,190 (+33,539 | Δ Change: ↑14.94% | Σ Increase: ↑1.48%)
• Deaths: 121,407 (+719 | Δ Change: ↓3.75% | Σ Increase: ↑0.60%)

6/20:

• Cases: 2,330,578 (+33,388 | Δ Change: ↓0.45% | Σ Increase: ↑1.45%)
• Deaths: 121,980 (+573 | Δ Change: ↓20.31% | Σ Increase: ↑0.47%)

6/21: <Sunday>

• Cases: 2,356,657 (+26,079 | Δ Change: ↓21.89% | Σ Increase: ↑1.12%)
• Deaths: 122,247 (+267 | Δ Change: ↓53.40% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)

6/22 (Yesterday):

• Cases: 2,388,153 (+31,496 | Δ Change: ↑20.77% | Σ Increase: ↑1.34%)
• Deaths: 122,610 (+363 | Δ Change: ↑35.96% | Σ Increase: ↑0.30%)

6/23 (Today):

• Cases: 2,424,168 (+36,015 | Δ Change: ↑14.35% | Σ Increase: ↑1.51%)
• Deaths: 123,473 (+863 | Δ Change: ↑137.74% | Σ Increase: ↑0.70%)
• Death toll inflated by older counts recently dumped by DE

[Gass3268]

Arizona, Florida and Texas are turning into New York 2-3 months ago.

https://twitter.com/JesseRodriguez/status/1275803698925637632?s=20

[Babeuf]

Jeez, I wonder if the spike in cases we've seen had anything to do with the tens of thousands of people in the streets protesting and looting.

Its as if Trump's refusal to not wear a mask, hold rallies, and generally deny any wrongdoing has inspired the left to counter with their own levels of stupidity.

Testing of protestors so far show that they are not the driver and have very low rates of infection. Outside + everyone in masks + hand sanitizer distributed, makes a big difference.

[BlueSwan]

Overall EU vs USA. All Trumpists should be forced to look at this:

[ajc0918]

Thanks a lot DeSantis. He should resign.

[Gass3268]

New York, New Jersey and Connecticut are turning the tables on Florida and Texas:

https://twitter.com/DrLeanaWen/status/1275815562426355713?s=20

States listed: Alabama, Arkansas, Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, South Carolina, Washington, Texas, and Utah.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Δ Change: Day-by-day Growth or Decline or COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Are we flattening the curve enough?

Just a suggestion, but it is probably time to update Are we flattening the curve enough? to reflect the fact that we are no longer flattening the curve nor really trying to do so.

Perhaps change it to something like this:

Δ Change: Day-by-day Growth or Decline or COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Is the virus spreading at an accelerating rate?

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Overall EU vs USA. All Trumpists should be forced to look at this:

TBH it is also a bit worrying that the European curve has clearly stopped declining overall at this point and has flattened out. Ideally it would be nice for it to still be going down, even if only very gradually to the point that each country only had a handful of cases per day. I have no doubt that European countries are much better able to stamp out resurgences in the virus than the USA, but it does suggest that R_t has increased in Europe back perhaps to about 1, and if people are not careful it could also start growing (albeit likely at a significantly lower/more controllable rate than in the USA).

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

https://twitter.com/StevenTDennis/status/1275847562625507329

There has been a single bright spot today though, which is that Arizona "only" reported 1,795 new cases, which is quite a bit lower than the 3,593 reported yesterday.

But 1,795 by itself is still 35 times more than the 51 new cases reported by South Korea today. And South Korea has more than 7 times the population of South Korea. That comes out to 250 times more new per capita confirmed cases in Arizona today than in South Korea. And if you were to take into account the much higher positivity rate in Arizona, it is probably actually at least something like 2500 times more cases per capita in reality, just as a rough guess.

And that is a "good" day for Arizona.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Overall EU vs USA. All Trumpists should be forced to look at this:

This graph is also misleading because it ignores the dramatically higher case fatality rate in Europe.

The UK yesterday reported 921 new cases and 280 new deaths. (CFR=30%)
The US yesterday reported 36,000 new case and 863 new deaths. (CFR=2%)

Today, UK reported 652 cases and 154 deaths. (CFR=24%)
So far today, the US has reported almost 17,000 cases and 365 deaths. (CFR=2%)

Across the whole pandemic, France, Italy, Spain, and the UK all have overall CFRs in the 10-15% range, while the US is right now at 5% and falling.

The UK is consistently still reporting per capita death tolls much higher than the US.
And this is all despite the UK having done more per capita testing!

Cases is the absolute wrong stat to look at.  People are going to get infected at some point regardless of what we do.  It's how we respond to infections that's going to make a difference.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

https://twitter.com/StevenTDennis/status/1275847562625507329

There has been a single bright spot today though, which is that Arizona "only" reported 1,795 new cases, which is quite a bit lower than the 3,593 reported yesterday.

But 1,795 by itself is still 35 times more than the 51 new cases reported by South Korea today. And South Korea has more than 7 times the population of South Korea. That comes out to 250 times more new per capita confirmed cases in Arizona today than in South Korea. And if you were to take into account the much higher positivity rate in Arizona, it is probably actually at least something like 2500 times more cases per capita in reality, just as a rough guess.

And that is a "good" day for Arizona.

Arizona reported 79 deaths today, which is by far a record for them.  That is the stat that we should focus on.  So definitely not a good day for them.

[BlueSwan]

Overall EU vs USA. All Trumpists should be forced to look at this:

This graph is also misleading because it ignores the dramatically higher case fatality rate in Europe.

The UK yesterday reported 921 new cases and 280 new deaths. (CFR=30%)
The US yesterday reported 36,000 new case and 863 new deaths. (CFR=2%)

Today, UK reported 652 cases and 154 deaths. (CFR=24%)
So far today, the US has reported almost 17,000 cases and 365 deaths. (CFR=2%)

Across the whole pandemic, France, Italy, Spain, and the UK all have overall CFRs in the 10-15% range, while the US is right now at 5% and falling.

The UK is consistently still reporting per capita death tolls much higher than the US.
And this is all despite the UK having done more per capita testing!

Cases is the absolute wrong stat to look at.  People are going to get infected at some point regardless of what we do.  It's how we respond to infections that's going to make a difference.

I do agree that those statistics are far from a perfect measure.

However, I do have a few objections to your objections. ;-)

The UK is not part of the EU anymore hence not part of my graph. And yeah, the UK is a sh*tshow with a leader almost as incompetent as Trump.

Countries like Italy, Spain and France suffer from being hit really hard early on when little testing was available. Comparing overall mortality rates is almost certainly premature and may never yield a comparative picture.

I strongly disagree that "everybody is going to be infected at some point". Here in Denmark we were hit VERY hard early on and was at one point #4 in the entire world when it came to total registrered cases per capita. These days we test around 15k people a day and register around 50 new cases a day (total cases is now roughly 12600). We are down to a mere 33 people who are hospitalized and only 4 of those are currently in ventilators. At this current rate of infection it would take around 312 years to infect the entire population of Denmark. I suspect that we will have found a vaccine well before the year 2332 comes around. ;-)

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

This graph is also misleading because it ignores the dramatically higher case fatality rate in Europe.

The UK yesterday reported 921 new cases and 280 new deaths. (CFR=30%)
The US yesterday reported 36,000 new case and 863 new deaths. (CFR=2%)

Today, UK reported 652 cases and 154 deaths. (CFR=24%)
So far today, the US has reported almost 17,000 cases and 365 deaths. (CFR=2%)

This is yet another example of sloppy math/thinking by people who want to downplay the virus and pretend that everything is just fine.

The people who died in the UK/USA today were not newly diagnosed today, but rather were diagnosed weeks ago. To do a proper comparison, you should be comparing new cases from a few weeks ago to current deaths. Doing so would eliminate a decent amount of the discrepancy (of course, it is true that there are also other factors involved such as per capita tests, but that fact that the amount of tests is a factor does not mean that you can validly ignore other factors such as the time lag).

As another example of sloppy math/thinking, remember a few days ago when Delaware dumped some old death data? It was quickly pointed out (correctly) by virus 'skeptics' that really a proper accounting of those deaths should re-assign them, and so that inflated the day's death totals by a bit. Then the virus skeptics compared this to previous data and said, "if you throw out the Delaware deaths which were really from various earlier days, then today was not so bad." However, did they consider the fact that various states have often similarly dumped previous data from previous days in the past? And that this would likewise apply to some of the previous days a week or two ago, and thus if you apply a correction to one day, you must also consider whether the same correction must be applied to previous days. So did they bother to do that, or even acknowledge that in principle they ought to? Nope. No consistency of that sort in analysis, just trying desperately to cling to whatever makes the situation look a little bit better.

Look, I get it. The virus sucks. Lockdowns suck. And what especially sucks are half-assed lockdowns by incompetent governments and selfish and idiotic populaces that don't even successfully contain the virus, which means that the sacrifice we made of going into lockdown was to a considerable extent in vain.