COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

US life expectancy falls by more than a year due to Covid-19 pandemic, CDC study says

Life expectancy in the United States fell by a year and a half in 2020 primarily due to increases in death due to the Covid-19 pandemic, according to early data released by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

"U.S. life expectancy at birth for 2020, based on nearly final data, was 77.3 years, the lowest it has been since 2003," researchers at the CDC's National Center for Health Statistics wrote in a new report published on Wednesday.

US life expectancy declined from 78.8 years in 2019 to 77.3 years in 2020, the researchers reported, and Covid-19 deaths contributed to 73.8% of that decline.

The report was based on provisional data from death and birth records for the year 2020, processed by the National Center for Health Statistics. Since the study relied on recorded deaths and births, some deaths or births that had not yet been counted or recorded were not included in the early data.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/21/health/life-expectancy-covid-19-pandemic-cdc-study-wellness/index.html

I feel like this was reported a few months ago, but this is apparently a new study.

I still don’t understand how the death of 0.2% of the population, most of whom were old, could result in a 2% decrease in life expectancy among the entire population.   

[Hammy]

US life expectancy falls by more than a year due to Covid-19 pandemic, CDC study says

Life expectancy in the United States fell by a year and a half in 2020 primarily due to increases in death due to the Covid-19 pandemic, according to early data released by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

"U.S. life expectancy at birth for 2020, based on nearly final data, was 77.3 years, the lowest it has been since 2003," researchers at the CDC's National Center for Health Statistics wrote in a new report published on Wednesday.

US life expectancy declined from 78.8 years in 2019 to 77.3 years in 2020, the researchers reported, and Covid-19 deaths contributed to 73.8% of that decline.

The report was based on provisional data from death and birth records for the year 2020, processed by the National Center for Health Statistics. Since the study relied on recorded deaths and births, some deaths or births that had not yet been counted or recorded were not included in the early data.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/21/health/life-expectancy-covid-19-pandemic-cdc-study-wellness/index.html

I feel like this was reported a few months ago, but this is apparently a new study.

I still don’t understand how the death of 0.2% of the population, most of whom were old, could result in a 2% decrease in life expectancy among the entire population.   

43% of the deaths have been under 75 and 20% have been under 65. I imagine they are also taking long term health effects into account--a lot of people who survived (around 20-30% depending on source) will have permanent damage to their lungs, circulatory system, or brain chemistry, and there seems to be a high risk of suicide among long haulers. When you consider 10% of the country had it at some point you're going to see a larger impact.

There's also the effects on physical and mental health that the indirect impacts of the pandemic have caused--stress, loss of jobs, isolation, etc that are likely factored in.

[Former President tack50]

At this point, Donald Trump is one day less than six months away from "still being President", and the Delta mutation of COVID-19/SARS-2 is giving an unwelcome resurgence to a horrid disease. I suggest starting a new thread to this effect and closing this one, with the caveat that the infection and death counts be allowed to migrate to (COVID-19 Megathread 7.

Yes.  It's insane that this thread is now over 200 pages long.  I'd have to imagine it's by far the longest thread on this site and the name is just utter nonsense.  I really don't understand the mods' stubbornness on this.

COVID-19 Megathread 7:  Delta takes over

It's really that simple.

While I'd support a new thread, it is worth noting this thread does not even crack the top 10 longest threads list! (although it might eventually breach into it)

Longest thread in the history of the site is actually the 2020 election night thread, at 820 pages. The fact that such a thread was able to exist when Atlas tended to collapse on election night is a testament to Virginia's improvements to the site over the past 4 years (I still remember election night 2018 where, while the site was still up which was already a first for the site, it was too slow to be usable)

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=409870.0

The 2nd longest thread is the Obama approval ratings thread during his 1st term, at 410 pages long. In one of his very few direct interventions, Dave closed it since it was lagging the site

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=91754.0

I will say that the 10th largest thread stands at 212 pages, so this thread is about to get into the top 10 anyways (and starting from there there are a bunch of threads in the high 5000s, so if we can get this to 6000 replies or 240 pages we'd get to the 6th longest thread.

If we combined all the Covid megathreads this would be the 2nd longest thread ever at 710 pages or so, only behind the 2020 election night thread, but dwarfing the Obama approval ratings thread

[Mr. Illini]

Lori Lightfoot promised us Chicago vaccine passports and we never got them, presumably because they didn't want to upset people that refuse the vaccine.

Moving forward with them would have 1) prevented the surge we're seeing, as non-vaxxed people wouldn't be allowed in a lot of the situations they are allowed now and 2) allowed vaxxed people to continue with our lives amid any potential restrictions that might lie on the horizons.

It's not exclusive to Chicago either - a lot of big city pols supported passports and never rolled them out.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

US life expectancy falls by more than a year due to Covid-19 pandemic, CDC study says

Life expectancy in the United States fell by a year and a half in 2020 primarily due to increases in death due to the Covid-19 pandemic, according to early data released by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

"U.S. life expectancy at birth for 2020, based on nearly final data, was 77.3 years, the lowest it has been since 2003," researchers at the CDC's National Center for Health Statistics wrote in a new report published on Wednesday.

US life expectancy declined from 78.8 years in 2019 to 77.3 years in 2020, the researchers reported, and Covid-19 deaths contributed to 73.8% of that decline.

The report was based on provisional data from death and birth records for the year 2020, processed by the National Center for Health Statistics. Since the study relied on recorded deaths and births, some deaths or births that had not yet been counted or recorded were not included in the early data.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/21/health/life-expectancy-covid-19-pandemic-cdc-study-wellness/index.html

I feel like this was reported a few months ago, but this is apparently a new study.

I still don’t understand how the death of 0.2% of the population, most of whom were old, could result in a 2% decrease in life expectancy among the entire population.   

43% of the deaths have been under 75 and 20% have been under 65. I imagine they are also taking long term health effects into account--a lot of people who survived (around 20-30% depending on source) will have permanent damage to their lungs, circulatory system, or brain chemistry, and there seems to be a high risk of suicide among long haulers. When you consider 10% of the country had it at some point you're going to see a larger impact.

There's also the effects on physical and mental health that the indirect impacts of the pandemic have caused--stress, loss of jobs, isolation, etc that are likely factored in.

The article says the risks of respiratory disease and suicide actually declined significantly in the last year.

It sounds to me like they just made this life expectancy calculation based on the 2020 data and nothing else.  In other words, they are assuming that 2020 represents the new normal going forward, and that covid will be the 3rd leading cause of death in the US for the foreseeable future.  Which is just unbelievably stupid.

[emailking]

It sounds to me like they just made this life expectancy calculation based on the 2020 data and nothing else.  In other words, they are assuming that 2020 represents the new normal going forward, and that covid will be the 3rd leading cause of death in the US for the foreseeable future.  Which is just unbelievably stupid.

Hmm?

Life expectancy is just an average. Weighted maybe, but an average. If a bunch of people die unexpectedly, however that happens, life expectancy goes down because of it, even if we know that won't repeat.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

‘I’m sorry, but it’s too late’: Alabama doctor on treating unvaccinated, dying COVID patients

Dr. Brytney Cobia said Monday that all but one of her COVID patients in Alabama did not receive the vaccine. The vaccinated patient, she said, just needed a little oxygen and is expected to fully recover. Some of the others are dying.

“I’m admitting young healthy people to the hospital with very serious COVID infections,” wrote Cobia, a hospitalist at Grandview Medical Center in Birmingham, in an emotional Facebook post Sunday. “One of the last things they do before they’re intubated is beg me for the vaccine. I hold their hand and tell them that I’m sorry, but it’s too late.”

“You kind of go into it thinking, ‘Okay, I’m not going to feel bad for this person, because they make their own choice,’” Cobia said. “But then you actually see them, you see them face to face, and it really changes your whole perspective, because they’re still just a person that thinks that they made the best decision that they could with the information that they have, and all the misinformation that’s out there.

“And now all you really see is their fear and their regret. And even though I may walk into the room thinking, ‘Okay, this is your fault, you did this to yourself,’ when I leave the room, I just see a person that’s really suffering, and that is so regretful for the choice that they made.”

The thing is, these people didn't make their decisions in a vacuum. The information they acted on was contaminated, deliberately, by the GOP and Fox News. Republicans leadership are all effectively mass murderers. . That the Republican cultists share in the responsibility doesn't make what their leadership does any less vile. It just means that their cultists are also their victims.

[pbrower2a]

At this point, Donald Trump is one day less than six months away from "still being President", and the Delta mutation of COVID-19/SARS-2 is giving an unwelcome resurgence to a horrid disease. I suggest starting a new thread to this effect and closing this one, with the caveat that the infection and death counts be allowed to migrate to (COVID-19 Megathread 7.

Yes.  It's insane that this thread is now over 200 pages long.  I'd have to imagine it's by far the longest thread on this site and the name is just utter nonsense.  I really don't understand the mods' stubbornness on this.

COVID-19 Megathread 7:  Delta takes over

It's really that simple.

While I'd support a new thread, it is worth noting this thread does not even crack the top 10 longest threads list! (although it might eventually breach into it)

Longest thread in the history of the site is actually the 2020 election night thread, at 820 pages. The fact that such a thread was able to exist when Atlas tended to collapse on election night is a testament to Virginia's improvements to the site over the past 4 years (I still remember election night 2018 where, while the site was still up which was already a first for the site, it was too slow to be usable)

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=409870.0

The 2nd longest thread is the Obama approval ratings thread during his 1st term, at 410 pages long. In one of his very few direct interventions, Dave closed it since it was lagging the site

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=91754.0

I will say that the 10th largest thread stands at 212 pages, so this thread is about to get into the top 10 anyways (and starting from there there are a bunch of threads in the high 5000s, so if we can get this to 6000 replies or 240 pages we'd get to the 6th longest thread.

If we combined all the Covid megathreads this would be the 2nd longest thread ever at 710 pages or so, only behind the 2020 election night thread, but dwarfing the Obama approval ratings thread

What I really want is the change of title, and I refer to the second movie in the Star Wars canon. Clichés may be poor discussion, but they make excellent titles. (If I am thinking of a mystery story, "Curiosity Killed the Cat" would make a suitable title. As a plot line, Hitchcock exploited that as a major plot element in Rear Window, in which "curiosity killed the cat" come to mind as a kitten-sized dog starts snooping near the site of what might be the corpus delicti. The troubled widower who had killed his wife kills the dog. Terrier dogs are very cat-like in behavior).

Joe Biden isn't a Presidential super-spreader; his policies are very different from those of Donald Trump. Inoculation is extensive, if not pervasive, and there are cultural differences in inoculation.

Much will change. COVID-19 is most noteworthy for outright kills, but it is more likely to cause organ damage and problems of mental health. Survivors may be compromised in their ability to hold jobs and eschew personal violence. But this is speculation because we have little record of people who have survived a scrape with 'Rona, and none with any people who have survived appreciably longer than that.

Because people can be inoculated from it, it does not have a perfect analogy in AIDS aside from being an insidious viral disease. We do not know quite what it can morph into. Another possible analogue is rheumatic fever, which most victims survived -- only to cause later heart disease.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

It sounds to me like they just made this life expectancy calculation based on the 2020 data and nothing else.  In other words, they are assuming that 2020 represents the new normal going forward, and that covid will be the 3rd leading cause of death in the US for the foreseeable future.  Which is just unbelievably stupid.

Hmm?

Life expectancy is just an average. Weighted maybe, but an average. If a bunch of people die unexpectedly, however that happens, life expectancy goes down because of it, even if we know that won't repeat.

Right, but certainly not enough people died of covid just in 2020 to reduce overall life expectancy by 2%.   Less than 0.2% of Americans died, and they probably lost on average something like 10 years of life, since most were over 65 already.   Given this, the actually loss of life expectancy due to covid should be closer to 0.02%, not 2%.  It might be more like 2% if you assume 500k people are going to die of covid every year going forward.

[Florida Man for Crime]

‘I’m sorry, but it’s too late’: Alabama doctor on treating unvaccinated, dying COVID patients

Dr. Brytney Cobia said Monday that all but one of her COVID patients in Alabama did not receive the vaccine. The vaccinated patient, she said, just needed a little oxygen and is expected to fully recover. Some of the others are dying.

“I’m admitting young healthy people to the hospital with very serious COVID infections,” wrote Cobia, a hospitalist at Grandview Medical Center in Birmingham, in an emotional Facebook post Sunday. “One of the last things they do before they’re intubated is beg me for the vaccine. I hold their hand and tell them that I’m sorry, but it’s too late.”

“You kind of go into it thinking, ‘Okay, I’m not going to feel bad for this person, because they make their own choice,’” Cobia said. “But then you actually see them, you see them face to face, and it really changes your whole perspective, because they’re still just a person that thinks that they made the best decision that they could with the information that they have, and all the misinformation that’s out there.

“And now all you really see is their fear and their regret. And even though I may walk into the room thinking, ‘Okay, this is your fault, you did this to yourself,’ when I leave the room, I just see a person that’s really suffering, and that is so regretful for the choice that they made.”

The thing is, these people didn't make their decisions in a vacuum. The information they acted on was contaminated, deliberately, by the GOP and Fox News. Republicans leadership are all effectively mass murderers. . That the Republican cultists share in the responsibility doesn't make what their leadership does any less vile. It just means that their cultists are also their victims.

Damn, I saw that and I came here with the intention of posting it (not having posted much in a while), but you beat me to it.

The full article is worth a read.

It is very sad, so many Americans are being murdered by Republican pond scum who have dissuaded them from getting a freely available vaccine which can (to a large extent) prevent death and severe symptoms.

And what is even worse, this has spilled over into other countries as well, due to the global influence and presence of American media and culture/tech (e.g. facebook), our pond scum are also culpable for the killing of far too many people in the rest of the world as well.



Also, I am glad the thread title was finally changed.

[pbrower2a]

It sounds to me like they just made this life expectancy calculation based on the 2020 data and nothing else.  In other words, they are assuming that 2020 represents the new normal going forward, and that covid will be the 3rd leading cause of death in the US for the foreseeable future.  Which is just unbelievably stupid.

Hmm?

Life expectancy is just an average. Weighted maybe, but an average. If a bunch of people die unexpectedly, however that happens, life expectancy goes down because of it, even if we know that won't repeat.

Right, but certainly not enough people died of covid just in 2020 to reduce overall life expectancy by 2%.   Less than 0.2% of Americans died, and they probably lost on average something like 10 years of life, since most were over 65 already.   Given this, the actually loss of life expectancy due to covid should be closer to 0.02%, not 2%.  It might be more like 2% if you assume 500k people are going to die of covid every year going forward.

If hundreds of thousands of people die who otherwise would not, then such reduces life expectancy. So far we are counting almost entirely direct kills of COVID-19 and perhaps some side kills (like suicides and drug overdoses due to economic and social distress).

The full effect of COVID-19 upon subsequent morbidity of survivors is not yet known. We know that certain conditions such as diabetes and cirrhosis shorten the life expectancy of anyone who has them. Likewise, anyone who has had any heart attack, stroke, or cancer is prone to more of the same.

People may not survive unscathed.

[ProudModerate2]

Video: Mom pleads with people to get vaccine after unvaccinated daughter's death.

https://us.cnn.com/videos/health/2021/07/21/mom-unvaccinated-daughter-death-sot-kmov-mpx-vpx.hln

[有爭議嘅領土 of The Figgis Agency]

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/21/us/american-life-expectancy-report.html

U.S. Life Expectancy Plunged in 2020, Especially for Black and Hispanic Americans

The 18-month drop, the steepest decline since World War II, was fueled by the coronavirus pandemic.

July 21, 2021
Updated 3:59 p.m. ET

CHICAGO — Life expectancy in the United States fell by a year and a half in 2020, largely because of the deadly coronavirus pandemic, a federal report said on Wednesday, a staggering drop that affected Hispanic and Black Americans more severely than white people.

It was the steepest decline in life expectancy in the United States since World War II.

From 2019 to 2020, Hispanic people experienced the greatest drop in life expectancy — three years — and Black Americans saw a decrease of 2.9 years. White Americans experienced the smallest decline, of 1.2 years.

The numbers can vary from year to year, providing only a snapshot in time of the general health of a population: If an American child was born today and lived an entire life under the conditions of 2020, that child would be expected to live 77.3 years, down from 78.8 in 2019.

The last time life expectancy was so low was in 2003, according to the National Center for Health Statistics, the agency that released the figures and a part of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Wonder what happened to Asians, Native Americans, and Other/Mixed Race.

[jimrtex]

US life expectancy falls by more than a year due to Covid-19 pandemic, CDC study says

Life expectancy in the United States fell by a year and a half in 2020 primarily due to increases in death due to the Covid-19 pandemic, according to early data released by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

"U.S. life expectancy at birth for 2020, based on nearly final data, was 77.3 years, the lowest it has been since 2003," researchers at the CDC's National Center for Health Statistics wrote in a new report published on Wednesday.

US life expectancy declined from 78.8 years in 2019 to 77.3 years in 2020, the researchers reported, and Covid-19 deaths contributed to 73.8% of that decline.

The report was based on provisional data from death and birth records for the year 2020, processed by the National Center for Health Statistics. Since the study relied on recorded deaths and births, some deaths or births that had not yet been counted or recorded were not included in the early data.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/21/health/life-expectancy-covid-19-pandemic-cdc-study-wellness/index.html

I feel like this was reported a few months ago, but this is apparently a new study.

I still don’t understand how the death of 0.2% of the population, most of whom were old, could result in a 2% decrease in life expectancy among the entire population.   

Let's look at life expectancy for older persons. At age 65, life expectancy is 19.5 years. This is the mean. If there is a group of 100 65-year-olds, they will have a collective life expectancy of 19.5 x 100 = 1950 years.

Some will die at 65 some will die at 85, and a few might die at 105 (we probably need more than 100 in our study. Perhaps 10,000 or 100,000 subjects).

Deaths will steadily increase as the age-specific death rate increases.

For 55-64 it is 1.0%
For 65-74 it is 2.0%
For 75-84 it is 4.6%
For 85+ it is 13.1%

If is (mumble, mumble, turns envelope over ...) likely to around 1.5% at age 65 and perhaps 3.0% at 75.

But at some point even though the share of persons who will die at a particular age is increasing, fewer persons will die because there are fewer people left out of our original cohort. The distribution will have a long tail towards the 65 YO side and a sharp decline on the older side. If 10% or more of people are dying, there is a sharp decline. The median and mode will be older than the mean.

So let's look at those 100 65-YO who were expected to live 1950 more person-years. We expected about 1.5 to die in the first year, So we might have 98.5 living another year, and the others living an average of 0.5 years, for a total of 99.25 years.

(1950 - 99.25)/98.5 = 18.79 life expectation for remainder.

But what if 2% died in that first year.

98 survived and would have an expected life expectancy of 18.79.

If we take in our future life expectancy plus the years lived at 65 we get.

98 x (18.79 + 1) + 2 x 0.5 = 1940

Our original estimate was high.

But what will happen for our now 66 YO in 2021?

Life expectancy is projecting the past forward. It is getting pretty dicey if we try to figure out whether there will be cures for cancer, dementia, heart attacks, stroke, and hip fractures.

So what do we expect for 2021 and 2022? Will they be like 2020? Do we try to blend 2016 to 2020. Or do we toss 2020 as an anomaly.

If we repeat the experience of 2020 going forward over and over, there will be lots of premature deaths due to COVID.

Note that to some extent, life expectancy is just an alternate measure of infant mortality. If a baby gets to their 1st birthday they are pretty good until around 20, when they start doing stupid things, and perhaps 40 when some bodies start wearing out.

[pppolitics]

Biden should focus on getting unvaccinated Democrats vaccinated and let unvaccinated Republicans die of their stupidity.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Biden should focus on getting unvaccinated Democrats vaccinated and let unvaccinated Republicans die of their stupidity.

Absolutely not.  Biden is President of all the people, not just those of his own party.  And I have no doubt that he believes in this (unlike his predecessor).

[pppolitics]

Biden should focus on getting unvaccinated Democrats vaccinated and let unvaccinated Republicans die of their stupidity.

Absolutely not.  Biden is President of all the people, not just those of his own party.  And I have no doubt that he believes in this (unlike his predecessor).

Biden already did his job, which is to make the vaccine readily available (including to Republicans).

It's not Biden's job to fix Republican's stupidity.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 7/15-7/21/2021 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

From March 2020 to mid-July 2021, I kept track of COVID-19 numbers daily. Now that there's a light at the end of the tunnel and states are staggering their daily updates, I am switching to a mid-week to mid-week model (Thursday to Wednesday).

Wednesdays are ideal for weekly updates since holidays don't usually fall in the middle of the week, and most states would have reported some update by that day each week.

New Legend:

Δ Change: Comparisons of Weekly Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths

Σ Increase: A week's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE:What's the overall change in the total?

You may access the archive of daily reports below, with the last daily update at the end, which was on 7/6/2021.

Day-to-Day Archive from 3/26/2020-7/6/2021
(Hidden in spoiler mode to make the post more compact)

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

<Last Numbers for 3/26-3/28 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 3/29-4/4 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/5-4/11 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/12-4/18 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/19-4/25 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 4/26-5/2 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 5/3-5/9 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 5/10-5/16 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 5/17-5/23 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 5/24-5/30 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 5/31-6/6 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 6/7-6/13 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 6/14-6/20 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 6/21-6/27 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 6/28-7/4 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 7/5-7/11 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 7/12-7/18 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 7/19-7/25 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 7/26-8/1 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 8/2-8/8 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 8/9-8/15 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 8/16-8/22 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 8/23-8/29 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 8/30-9/5 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 9/6-9/12 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 9/13-9/19 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 9/20-9/26 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 9/27-10/3 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 10/4-10/10 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 10/11-10/17 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 10/18-10/24 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 10/25-10/31 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 11/1-11/7 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 11/8-11/14 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 11/15-11/21 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 11/22-11/28 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 11/29-12/5 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 12/6-12/12 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 12/13-12/19 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 12/20-12/26 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 12/27-1/2 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 1/3-1/9 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 1/10-1/16 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 1/17-1/23 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 1/24-1/30 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 1/31-2/6 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 2/7-2/13 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 2/14-2/20 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 2/21-2/27 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 2/28-3/6 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 3/7-3-13 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 3/14-3-20 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 3/21-3/27 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 3/28-4/3 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 4/4-4/10 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 4/11-4/17 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 4/18-4/24 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 4/25-5/1 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 5/2-5/8 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 5/9-5/15 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 5/16-5/22 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 5/23-5/29 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 5/30-6/5 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 6/6-6/12 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 6/13-6/19 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 6/20-6/26 in this Post>
<Last Daily Update on 7/6/2021 in this Post>

6/16-6/22: <Baseline Week>

• Cases: 34,433,696
• Deaths: 617,864

6/23-6/30:

• Cases: 34,544,094 (+110,398 | Σ Increase: ↑0.32%)
• Deaths: 620,237 (+2,373 | Σ Increase: ↑0.38%)

7/1-7/7:

• Cases: 34,641,189 (+97,095 | ΔW Change: ↓12.05% | Σ Increase: ↑0.28%)
• Deaths: 621,851 (+1,614 | ΔW Change: ↓31.98% | Σ Increase: ↑0.26%)

7/8-7/14: <Last Week>

• Cases: 34,848,068 (+206,879 | ΔW Change: ↑113.07% | Σ Increase: ↑0.60%)
• Deaths: 623,838 (+1,987 | ΔW Change: ↑23.11% | Σ Increase: ↑0.32%)

7/15-7/21: <This Week>

• Cases: 35,146,476 (+298,408 | ΔW Change: ↑44.24% | Σ Increase: ↑0.86%)
• Deaths: 625,808 (+1,970 | ΔW Change: ↓0.86% | Σ Increase: ↑0.32%)

[soundchaser]

At the very least (in spite of today’s slightly higher numbers) we seem to have hit a plateau fairly quickly. Let’s hope the Delta variant runs its course quickly here like it seemed to elsewhere.

[Hammy]

Available data suggests likelihood of long COVID in vaccinated people is extremely low.

https://www.sfchronicle.com/health/article/delta-variant-long-covid-vaccinated-16325674.php

However, Swartzberg said his conjecture is that long COVID will be unlikely in fully vaccinated people. “The vaccines considerably suppress viral replication in those individuals that have breakthrough infections,” he said in an email. “Our bodies will have less to contend with during the breakthrough infection and this should make long COVID less likely.”

Wachter also said some experts believe long COVID is unlikely to develop in fully vaccinated people because of limited viral replication, and added that long COVID clinics have not reported seeing many breakthrough cases.

[soundchaser]

Makes nothing but sense. Still nice to have some more data on it!

[pbrower2a]

300 thousand infections suggests 4500 deaths from COVID-19. 

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

It sounds to me like they just made this life expectancy calculation based on the 2020 data and nothing else.  In other words, they are assuming that 2020 represents the new normal going forward, and that covid will be the 3rd leading cause of death in the US for the foreseeable future.  Which is just unbelievably stupid.

Hmm?

Life expectancy is just an average. Weighted maybe, but an average. If a bunch of people die unexpectedly, however that happens, life expectancy goes down because of it, even if we know that won't repeat.

Right, but certainly not enough people died of covid just in 2020 to reduce overall life expectancy by 2%.   Less than 0.2% of Americans died, and they probably lost on average something like 10 years of life, since most were over 65 already.   Given this, the actually loss of life expectancy due to covid should be closer to 0.02%, not 2%.  It might be more like 2% if you assume 500k people are going to die of covid every year going forward.

If hundreds of thousands of people die who otherwise would not, then such reduces life expectancy. So far we are counting almost entirely direct kills of COVID-19 and perhaps some side kills (like suicides and drug overdoses due to economic and social distress).

The full effect of COVID-19 upon subsequent morbidity of survivors is not yet known. We know that certain conditions such as diabetes and cirrhosis shorten the life expectancy of anyone who has them. Likewise, anyone who has had any heart attack, stroke, or cancer is prone to more of the same.

People may not survive unscathed.

You are right that if hundreds of thousands of people die who otherwise would not, this reduces life expectancy.  But it cannot possibly reduce life expectancy by this much.  It’s off by several orders of magnitude.  

In order to reduce life expectancy by 2%, a virus would have to kill AT LEAST 2% of the entire US population.  And in reality, it would need to kill a lot more than 2% of the entire population, because it is mostly killing old people.   Given the age profile of covid deaths, it would need to kill more like 20% of the entire population.  But it didn’t kill 20%, or 2%; it killed 0.2%

I don’t care how many secondary effects you care to count; it still doesn’t get anywhere close to this estimate.  Has anyone defending this actually tried to think through the numbers they are implying?

[emailking]

I don’t care how many secondary effects you care to count; it still doesn’t get anywhere close to this estimate.  Has anyone defending this actually tried to think through the numbers they are implying?

It seems surprising to me but I'd be very reticent to declare their analysis wrong, which has probably been reviewed by several experts. Maybe CNN is misinterpreting it? I don't know.

[jimrtex]

It sounds to me like they just made this life expectancy calculation based on the 2020 data and nothing else.  In other words, they are assuming that 2020 represents the new normal going forward, and that covid will be the 3rd leading cause of death in the US for the foreseeable future.  Which is just unbelievably stupid.

Hmm?

Life expectancy is just an average. Weighted maybe, but an average. If a bunch of people die unexpectedly, however that happens, life expectancy goes down because of it, even if we know that won't repeat.

Right, but certainly not enough people died of covid just in 2020 to reduce overall life expectancy by 2%.   Less than 0.2% of Americans died, and they probably lost on average something like 10 years of life, since most were over 65 already.   Given this, the actually loss of life expectancy due to covid should be closer to 0.02%, not 2%.  It might be more like 2% if you assume 500k people are going to die of covid every year going forward.

If hundreds of thousands of people die who otherwise would not, then such reduces life expectancy. So far we are counting almost entirely direct kills of COVID-19 and perhaps some side kills (like suicides and drug overdoses due to economic and social distress).

The full effect of COVID-19 upon subsequent morbidity of survivors is not yet known. We know that certain conditions such as diabetes and cirrhosis shorten the life expectancy of anyone who has them. Likewise, anyone who has had any heart attack, stroke, or cancer is prone to more of the same.

People may not survive unscathed.

You are right that if hundreds of thousands of people die who otherwise would not, this reduces life expectancy.  But it cannot possibly reduce life expectancy by this much.  It’s off by several orders of magnitude.  

In order to reduce life expectancy by 2%, a virus would have to kill AT LEAST 2% of the entire US population.  And in reality, it would need to kill a lot more than 2% of the entire population, because it is mostly killing old people.   Given the age profile of covid deaths, it would need to kill more like 20% of the entire population.  But it didn’t kill 20%, or 2%; it killed 0.2%

I don’t care how many secondary effects you care to count; it still doesn’t get anywhere close to this estimate.  Has anyone defending this actually tried to think through the numbers they are implying?

Around 3 million Americans die annually or about 1% of the population.

What would be the effect if that were reduced to 0% so that nobody died - ever.

What would be life expectancy? Methuselah would be a youngin.

Going from 0% to 1% reduces life expectancy from 969+ years to 80 years. Why do you think that going from 1% to 1.2% would only reduce life expectancy by 0.2%?