COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[soundchaser]

https://twitter.com/paleomexicano/status/1311856198820405249

This is *very* morbid (probably unnecessarily so), but also, no, Pence would get his ass handed to him.

[soundchaser]

May I ask a serious question?

How come much of the left has been very pro-lockdown when it clearly hurts the poor the most? and when you argue against lockdowns, they respond with retorts so dismissive that its clear they did not read past the first sentence.

Not trying to insult anyone or start a fight here.

I've been pro-lockdown for the better part of a year now, but I also recognize that you can't do lockdowns without a government willing to support its citizens in staying home. And that's obviously just not going to happen in this country. So it's a tough tightrope to walk.

[soundchaser]

I'm not sure if this article by Dr. Julia Marcus has been posted here yet, but it crystalizes a lot of the feelings I've had about how the messaging re: vaccines has been totally mishandled. I hope in the next few weeks we'll have better guidance from the CDC, because telling people "do nothing differently" is not a way to drive vaccination rates up, even if it is the only 100% sure way of risk mitigation. (As Marcus points out, "trying to eliminate even the lowest-risk changes in behavior both underestimates people’s need to be close to one another and discourages the very thing that will get everyone out of this mess: vaccine uptake.")

Thoughts from anyone smarter than I? Am I misreading the whole situation?

[soundchaser]

Not just that but also just saying nothing will return to normal after the vaccine. 

The problem is we don't know when after the vaccine is. Everyone is saying things like 2022 will look at lot more like 2019 than 2020.

Because the science behind the vaccine tells us it will! It may not look totally like 2019, but there’s nothing to suggest it won’t be better. We know the vaccine culls transmission (although by how much, we’re not sure), we know it’s good against the B variant based on the research out of Israel, and we know even one dose is more effective than we thought. I am sick of hearing nothing but doom-and-gloom coming from epidemiologists who think us incapable of nuance. Should we drop our masks immediately after one dose? Of course not. Is it ok to provide some optimism? I think you have to, or people are going to start to wonder if there’s even a point.

[soundchaser]

Mister Rogers never would have put up with any of this.

You’re really invoking the guy whose whole business was being a good neighbor? Seriously?

[soundchaser]

I think Texas and Mississippi were too quick to remove restrictions, but when is the right time to lift them? It seems like the virus won't be truly eradicated and we'll have to live with it like the flu.

Once enough people are vaccinated or at least everyone who wants to take a shot has been offered one. I don't know why people make such a big deal out of that. Wearing a mask while going into a store or wherever keeping a distance to strangers is not possible isn't that hard. Of course it's annoying to wear, but it helps save lives. And I'd much rather wear a mask than being on ICU or dead.

If masks are so effective in containing the spread of coronavirus, it should not be a big deal if mask mandates are allowed to expire.  You will still be able to go about wearing a mask, while continuing to take measures recommended by your health unit or the WHO.  Mask wearing isn't going to be banned.

Removing what little protection/recourse those who work with the public have against asymptomatic people.

[soundchaser]

To me, we can talk about heartbeat laws, abortion bans, or whatever but these sort of arguments are slippery slopes to chilling novel medical research and contraception in general.

Speaking as someone who used to be part of that movement: that's the whole idea.

[soundchaser]

Speaking of the vaccines, I have a two-shot appointment for March 27 and April 24. I'm pretty sure it's the Pfizer one.

It's likely the Moderna if your appointments are four weeks apart.

[soundchaser]

I know it’s a Sunday, but is that the lowest number of new daily cases since June of last year?

[soundchaser]

This is a terrible decision unless they're going to mandate proof of vaccination, otherwise it's just going to encourage unvaccinated people to lie and spread the virus more.

At this point, the vaccine is available to every American over the age of 12. If you haven’t gotten it yet, you’re making a (dumb) choice for yourself. Those of us who have been vaccinated shouldn’t have to suffer forever because of the morons. Will I probably still wear my mask to some crowded places? Yeah. But I bought tickets to a November concert and I am beyond excited that the CDC is saying it will be ok to have.

[soundchaser]

I won't wear a mask to church of course because its obvious there I'm not a Republican or live music shows once those start again because no Republicans would attend the ones I do. Otherwise I'm still masking up and making it dead clear I didn't vote for Trump.

You know, at some point you're going to have to give up the pretense that anyone thinking you voted for a candidate is going to make a difference in your daily life. Or that people who voted for the president who *just showed Americans today that it is ok to shed your mask once you're vaccinated* aren't going to follow his example.

[soundchaser]

Real life isn't an internet forum. You don't score recommendation points for strangers thinking anything about you.

[soundchaser]

Because ANYONE thinking I'm a Republican would suck.

Someone can think you've got four legs and horns sticking out of your head, and you will have absolutely no idea.

[soundchaser]

How do mask mandates "kill the economy," exactly? I can understand being anti-lockdown for those reasons, but I can't see what negative effect masks had economically.

[soundchaser]

Really looking forward to our first three-digit cases day — and it looks like it may happen sometime in July, if trends hold.

[soundchaser]

Not really. The vaccine is meant to protect the person who gets the vaccine from COVID, whereas the mask protects others around them. Just to plat it safe, I think that fully vaccinated people should still be required to wear masks indoors, just like unvaccinated people. Outdoors, I would feel comfortable not wearing a mask.

The CDC says fully vaccinated people don't have to wear masks anymore except in certain settings. So that's good enough for me. I don't wear a mask in stores anymore (fully vaxed).

Yeah, it’s funny how some people shout “believe scientists!” until the scientists tell them something that doesn’t confirm their priors.

[soundchaser]

Have we really not learned anything about running TV stars for President?

[soundchaser]

Where’s the data showing the Delta variant to be more deadly than the Alpha? Deaths are still dropping in the U.K. — they’re down to averaging 11 per day. I simply don’t buy that this is a world-shattering change in the way the Alpha variant was. For the vaccinated, at least.

[soundchaser]

Uhh....
https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1407033868914499585

This information about the Delta variant makes me start favoring the reimplementation of preventative lockdowns.

Anyone drawing strict conclusions from a sample size of 42 out of 33 thousand is delusional. Stop reading Feigl-Ding, for the love of Christ.

[soundchaser]

The Delta variant has to be taken seriously. It's not just the UK, in Israel which leads the world in vaccinations they are seeing clusters around schools developing among the unvaccinated and it is in turn infecting people who have been fully vaccinated. All countries should step up their vaccine efforts and continue tracking/monitoring and lockdowns in breakout areas.

I think the Biden administration should try to implement a mandatory one year lockdown on all non essential businesses and implement a permanent mask mandate. That will bring case numbers down to about 50 per day and prevent more serious variants from developing at least in the US.

Respectfully: no part of this suggestion would work.

[soundchaser]

We HAVE a vaccine that neutralizes any variants — the mRNA vaccines are still wildly effective against them. And our case numbers are going down already, at a rapid pace.

I understand that you’re concerned about the Delta variant and the virus in general. But try to relax: the data we have continues to show that vaccinated people are almost totally safe.

[soundchaser]

The most comparable vaccine — the annual flu vaccine — ranges from 40% to 60% effective depending on the year. Let’s not undersell just how good the Pfizer and Moderna COVID vaccines are.

[soundchaser]

My prediction is that there'll be another wave thanks to the deplorables refusing to get vaccinated. This one will be the worst one.

I agree. It is possible that we end up with 1 million COVID cases per day in a few weeks and that the variant mutates to become 100% impervious to vaccines, thus putting us at square one again.

We don't have every state's numbers for today yet, but it looks like we're down several thousand cases compare to last Wednesday. Your pessimism is unwarranted.

[soundchaser]

Feigl-Ding is not an infectious diseases epidemiologist, and he should not be considered an expert on the subject. Listen to people who know what they’re talking about instead.

[soundchaser]

Read the article. As seems to be par for the course, the headline doesn’t give the full picture.