COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[ꙮ]

Jacksonville Regeneron clinic photo ‘doesn’t convey ... pain' of COVID-19 patients

Louie Lopez showed up to the downtown Jacksonville Main Library Conference Center on Wednesday in the early afternoon for a Regeneron therapy appointment. His primary care doctor recommended it after Lopez tested positive for COVID-19 and was experiencing moderate to severe symptoms.

While waiting in line for his turn, two other people got in the line behind Lopez. Both of them, he says, sat down on the floor immediately. They eventually laid down “sick and moaning.” Lopez, 59, told the Times-Union the woman pictured in yellow was dragging herself on the floor as the line slowly moved forward.

Lopez took a photo and sent it to his wife.

Why won't Joe Biden take responsibility for this?  I don't want to hear any finger-pointing.  He's the president and the buck stops with him.

It’s incredible how insecure you are about Biden getting any criticism at all.

[Dr. MB]

Less than 1% of Americans have schizophrenia. Come on guys.

How do you explain the behavior? There is PROBABLY a benign explanation or some other explanation but this sort of behavior that is being exhibited by so many people isn't what any reasonable person would consider "normal".  I guess if it means anything, people claiming to be abducted by aliens don't really appear to have anything wrong with them if we control for everything else, but then again that isn't a rational end of the story. Either 1) they HAVE been abducted by aliens, 2) there is something wrong with them, or 3) something else is happening that we don't understand and just because we don't understand it doesn't mean everything is OK or that nothing exists.

From all that we know, this is some sort of induced mass psychosis that is connected somehow to the end of a society and the start of another one. Maybe there is some sort of tangible connection between individuals in the societies they identify with. It could be related to the sort of thing that animals freak out about before someone dies, there is a major disaster, or something like that. We really don't know and there is nothing right now that can explain it and it should be studied but we don't even really know how to do that.

extrasensory perception

[emailking]

extrasensory perception

No evidence any such phenomenon is real, at least not backed by scientists who believe far weirder things like relativity and quantum mechanics because the evidence compels it.

[Dr. MB]

extrasensory perception

No evidence any such phenomenon is real, at least not backed by scientists who believe far weirder things like relativity and quantum mechanics because the evidence compels it.

The universe is a strange place. There's so much we don't know. I'd never count out the possibility.

[emailking]

I wouldn't count it out. I just don't see any reason to invoke it when there are explanations that fall within the known laws of physics.

[Sir Mohamed]

Biden vs. Florida man, Part II:

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1428683583040929792

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1428712218112233472

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1428712218112233472

FWIW, the non-white, esp black, are still disproportionately hospitalized, even though white are probably disproportionately leaning R.

[compucomp]

1 in 25 PBC students have opted out of wearing masks

https://www.palmbeachpost.com/story/news/education/2021/08/12/1-25-palm-beach-county-students-opt-out-wearing-masks/8107737002/

More than 6,000 students – roughly 4% of the student body – have opted out of the Palm Beach County public schools’ mask mandate, allowing them to attend classes without wearing facial coverings.

But like the return to in-person classes last year, the number of maskless students on campus varies widely from school to school and region to region.

Countywide, at least 6,394 of the district's roughly 169,000 pre-K-12 students provided opt-out letters by Thursday, according to figures released by the school district Thursday.

In a moderately blue county like Palm Beach, only 4% of parents have opted out of the school mask mandate. That's like a rounding error. Even in the red part, Jupiter, the high school had a 27% opt out rate, nowhere near a majority. Where is the massive flood of opt-outs that should have occurred due to society having rejected masks already, as posters here have claimed repeatedly? Clearly this forum is out of touch with the public will on mask wearing and mask mandates.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

1 in 25 PBC students have opted out of wearing masks

https://www.palmbeachpost.com/story/news/education/2021/08/12/1-25-palm-beach-county-students-opt-out-wearing-masks/8107737002/

More than 6,000 students – roughly 4% of the student body – have opted out of the Palm Beach County public schools’ mask mandate, allowing them to attend classes without wearing facial coverings.

But like the return to in-person classes last year, the number of maskless students on campus varies widely from school to school and region to region.

Countywide, at least 6,394 of the district's roughly 169,000 pre-K-12 students provided opt-out letters by Thursday, according to figures released by the school district Thursday.

In a moderately blue county like Palm Beach, only 4% of parents have opted out of the school mask mandate. That's like a rounding error. Even in the red part, Jupiter, the high school had a 27% opt out rate, nowhere near a majority. Where is the massive flood of opt-outs that should have occurred due to society having rejected masks already, as posters here have claimed repeatedly? Clearly this forum is out of touch with the public will on mask wearing and mask mandates.

That only counts those who actually went through the trouble of writing an opt-out letter. There's probably just as many who didn't even bother.

[Matty]

Absolutely insane

Louisiana’s R(t) is at a pandemic low of 0.64

Not only a record low for the state, but the lowest R(t) recorded anywhere in America since early days

Is Louisiana hitting herd immunity?

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Absolutely insane

Louisiana’s R(t) is at a pandemic low of 0.64

Not only a record low for the state, but the lowest R(t) recorded anywhere in America since early days

Is Louisiana hitting herd immunity?

I'm not sure where those numbers are coming from, but that doesn't really seem right.  Louisiana has recorded over 12,000 new cases in the last two days alone, which would project to over 400k cases/day if adjusted to the entire population of the US. 

Average cases are down about 10% from their peak about a week ago, but I don't see how this can translate to an Rt of 0.64, not withstanding the potential for case recording backlogs.

[Matty]

It’s coming from that great resource covestim.com

[Donerail]

"Why does it matter if other people aren't vaccinated?"

https://twitter.com/DavePuglisiTV/status/1428785401897050115

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1428712218112233472

FWIW, the non-white, esp black, are still disproportionately hospitalized, even though white are probably disproportionately leaning R.

What about professional class and middle class minorities?

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1428712218112233472

FWIW, the non-white, esp black, are still disproportionately hospitalized, even though white are probably disproportionately leaning R.

What about professional class and middle class minorities?

I don't know if there is such information. CDC provides only by age/sex/race.
https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/covidnet/COVID19_5.html

[pbrower2a]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 8/12-8/18/2021 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

From March 2020 to mid-July 2021, I kept track of COVID-19 numbers daily. Now that there's a light at the end of the tunnel and states are staggering their daily updates, I am switching to a mid-week to mid-week model (Thursday to Wednesday).

Wednesdays are ideal for weekly updates since holidays don't usually fall in the middle of the week, and most states would have reported some update by that day each week.

New Legend:

Δ Change: Comparisons of Weekly Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths

Σ Increase: A week's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE:What's the overall change in the total?

You may access the archive of daily reports below, with the last daily update at the end, which was on 7/6/2021.

Day-to-Day Archive from 3/26/2020-7/6/2021
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6/16-6/22: <Baseline Week>

• Cases: 34,433,696
• Deaths: 617,864

6/23-6/30:

• Cases: 34,544,094 (+110,398 | Σ Increase: ↑0.32%)
• Deaths: 620,237 (+2,373 | Σ Increase: ↑0.38%)

7/1-7/7:

• Cases: 34,641,189 (+97,095 | ΔW Change: ↓12.05% | Σ Increase: ↑0.28%)
• Deaths: 621,851 (+1,614 | ΔW Change: ↓31.98% | Σ Increase: ↑0.26%)

7/8-7/14:

• Cases: 34,848,068 (+206,879 | ΔW Change: ↑113.07% | Σ Increase: ↑0.60%)
• Deaths: 623,838 (+1,987 | ΔW Change: ↑23.11% | Σ Increase: ↑0.32%)

7/15-7/21:

• Cases: 35,146,476 (+298,408 | ΔW Change: ↑44.24% | Σ Increase: ↑0.86%)
• Deaths: 625,808 (+1,970 | ΔW Change: ↓0.86% | Σ Increase: ↑0.32%)

7/22-7/28:

• Cases: 35,487,348 (+340,872 | ΔW Change: ↑14.23% | Σ Increase: ↑0.97%)
• Deaths: 628,098 (+2,290 | ΔW Change: ↑16.24% | Σ Increase: ↑0.37%)

7/29-8/4:

• Cases: 36,176,471 (+689,123 | ΔW Change: ↑102.17% | Σ Increase: ↑1.94%)
• Deaths: 631,299 (+3,201 | ΔW Change: ↑39.78% | Σ Increase: ↑0.51%)

8/5-8/11: <Last Week>

• Cases: 37,027,466 (+850,995 | ΔW Change: ↑23.49% | Σ Increase: ↑2.35%)
• Deaths: 635,629 (+4,330 | ΔW Change: ↑35.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.69%)

8/12-8/18: <This Week>

• Cases: 38,072,249 (+1,044,783 | ΔW Change: ↑22.77% | Σ Increase: ↑2.82%)
• Deaths: 641,338 (+5,709 | ΔW Change: ↑31.85% | Σ Increase: ↑0.90%)

The 2020 Census numbers are out for the largest cities. We have just "lost Detroit"  in numbers... maybe Las Vegas.

Whiskey Tango Foxtrot!

[GeorgiaModerate]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 8/12-8/18/2021 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/


8/12-8/18: <This Week>

• Cases: 38,072,249 (+1,044,783 | ΔW Change: ↑22.77% | Σ Increase: ↑2.82%)
• Deaths: 641,338 (+5,709 | ΔW Change: ↑31.85% | Σ Increase: ↑0.90%)

The 2020 Census numbers are out for the largest cities. We have just "lost Detroit"  in numbers... maybe Las Vegas.

Whiskey Tango Foxtrot!

Another way to look at it: we've lost more people than live in the entire state of Wyoming, or just a few less than live in Vermont.

[It’s so Joever]

It is EXTREMELY suspicious that Florida’s deaths have dropped dramatically despite a sudden peak that rivaled the other two waves (even with the vaccines) but cases are still at the peak.
Deaths lag behind all other metrics, and that makes sense because it takes time for people to die from Covid. It’s very weird what is happening in Florida, I don’t see a similar trend in any other state so I am puzzled.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

It’s coming from that great resource covestim.com

Nevada just dropped to 0.59.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

It is EXTREMELY suspicious that Florida’s deaths have dropped dramatically despite a sudden peak that rivaled the other two waves (even with the vaccines) but cases are still at the peak.
Deaths lag behind all other metrics, and that makes sense because it takes time for people to die from Covid. It’s very weird what is happening in Florida, I don’t see a similar trend in any other state so I am puzzled.

Florida has been really laggy and inconsistent in their reporting for a couple months now, so you'll probably just see a lot of deaths added retroactively in a few days.  I mentioned a few posts earlier that I wouldn't really trust any trends right now until a least a week out, and especially not in Florida.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

It’s coming from that great resource covestim.com

Nevada just dropped to 0.59.

Do we know what data this is based on?  The last two days in Nevada have both been the highest number of new cases since January, so this seems totally nonsensical.

[Hammy]

It’s coming from that great resource covestim.com

Nevada just dropped to 0.59.

Do we know what data this is based on?  The last two days in Nevada have both been the highest number of new cases since January, so this seems totally nonsensical.

I just consider any unsourced to be made up by people who don't want to acknowledge how bad things have gotten given they really do seem to go against logic.

[Dan the Roman]

It’s coming from that great resource covestim.com

The problem with those statistics for the US is that they don't work with data which is by date of report rather than by date of occurrence. And that means

1. You need states which provide the latter
2. You can only calculate two weeks after

That is what the UK does and all official statistical agencies.

Anyone trying to calculate daily R is not actually trying to estimate R because the data to do so doesn't exist. I say that as someone who worked on this last spring.That is not how any official government agency or statistical agency does it. Ie. France, UK, Germany, Canada, internal US state and CDC ones.

The reason is precisely what you mention.

Take Louisiana

There are no reports on Saturdays or Sundays
Some Parishes only report three days a week. Those days are different. Some report every day.
Parishes have no central recording. For deaths they simply report coroner reports. For cases they report what is notified but it is literally random ladies filling stuff in when they have a chance in many of those places.
Also some testing labs only report at certain times in batches which involve multiple days
Private providers like CVS also tend to not report cases as they come in but rather dump

They then report to the state statistical agency which then publishes.

The problem is on a given day what shows up for new cases are
Two days worth of cases for some parishes.
One day worth for others.
Zero days worth for others.

Which will get you an R that jumps like a yo-yo.

[Dan the Roman]

It is EXTREMELY suspicious that Florida’s deaths have dropped dramatically despite a sudden peak that rivaled the other two waves (even with the vaccines) but cases are still at the peak.
Deaths lag behind all other metrics, and that makes sense because it takes time for people to die from Covid. It’s very weird what is happening in Florida, I don’t see a similar trend in any other state so I am puzzled.

Florida has been really laggy and inconsistent in their reporting for a couple months now, so you'll probably just see a lot of deaths added retroactively in a few days.  I mentioned a few posts earlier that I wouldn't really trust any trends right now until a least a week out, and especially not in Florida.

Florida reported 150k cases this week down from 151K but positivity increased from 19.6% ot 19.8% implying the drop in cases was due to a drop in testing. That said it seems to be peaking. But worth noting the UK peaked, declined a bit and has been inching its way up. The Delta outbreaks generally have settled at a much higher level post-peak than previous variants.

As for deaths, Florida reported 1486 new deaths which averages to 212 a day. They weren't all over the last week, but given it was 1072 last week, we can probably assume on the trend we have been over 200 a day for perhaps 2 weeks.