COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

It's about more testing, (younger) demographics (of patients) and better treatment. The following article uses mostly data from UK, but it should be similar across the West World.

https://www.ft.com/content/b3801b63-fbdb-433b-9a46-217405b1109f
Why the second wave of Covid-19 appears to be less lethal
Shifts in demographics and better hospital treatments help explain rising odds of survival

Paul Hunter, professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia, attributed about half of the improvement to the use of dexamethasone and other steroid medicines to reduce inflammation and dampen down patients’ overactive immune systems.

The age composition of Covid-19 hospital patients has also shifted, with over-sixties accounting for less than half of patients in August, down from 70 per cent in February, according to data compiled from 44 countries by ISARIC, the International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infection Consortium.

But improved hospital outcomes are not just the result of shifting patient demographics: in-hospital mortality among over-sixties halved from 50 per cent in early spring to 25 per cent in August.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://www.ft.com/content/4842aab1-7cc8-4973-b98a-03edf1eeae54
Schools play limited role in spread of Covid-19, studies signal
European research boosts policymakers who fear shutdown harms students and leaves parents unable to work

A series of studies has cast doubt on the role of schools in spreading the coronavirus as governments across Europe weigh fresh restrictions to slow a second wave of infections.

Studies in Germany and Norway, as well as two reviews focusing on education globally, suggest a renewal of widespread school closures would have a limited effect on curbing Sars-Cov-2, the virus that causes Covid-19.

The findings are likely to bolster policymakers concerned that school closures would risk more students falling behind and limit the ability of parents to return to work.

More and more evidence emerging that Pr. Trump was right.

Incredible that it isn't one of main topics in USA. Too fast closure and too slow re-opening of schools might lead to the lost generation of kids from poor, often low-educated, often minority, often single-mom etc families. I guess it's because Dems elite and journos are mostly white libs whose children are doing just fine on remote learning. And, obviously, because agreeing with Trump BAAAD is big No-No.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

If anyone on earth can think they can make an informed determination about COVID spread in K-12 schools based on what we know (ESPECIALLY in the US)... yikes. Imagine if we tested K-12 kids as much as we did college students...

No one test gyms, indoor restaurants or barber shops, either, and none of it is essential. Kids' education is. Kids need it supervising badly, esp from poor families.

And, as I said, evidence suggests that re-opening of schools does not worsen the overall situation. So, the only good reason to close school is if there is an actual outbreak in it.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/apoorva_nyc/status/1319408652311285761

Despite the gathering research, Boston on Wednesday decided to close schools even as restaurants, casinos and gyms remain open. Dr. Jenkins, who has two children, said she was particularly frustrated by the news.

“Children are not being prioritized, and they’re missing out on all the positive things about going to school,” Dr. Jenkins said. “I don’t understand why we’re not as a community getting together and deciding that schools need to be a priority and making them as safe as we can.”

Boston, what are you doing? Casinos!

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://www.ft.com/content/f75418a9-9ef5-4684-9222-758635e906b1
Covid-19 herd immunity theory dealt blow by UK research
Testing of more than 350,000 people shows that antibodies fade within few months

The proportion of people in Britain with antibodies that protect against Covid-19 declined over the summer, according to research that adds to evidence that natural immunity can wane in a matter of months.

The number of people with antibodies fell by a quarter, from 6 per cent of the population in June to 4.4 per cent in September, according to a study of hundreds of thousands of people, one of the largest of its kind to date.

The results, from researchers at Imperial College London, are the latest sign that immunity to Covid-19 may be shortlived and cast further doubt on the idea that any population could develop herd immunity naturally.

The study suggests that the immune system’s response to the virus is similar to its reaction to influenza and other coronaviruses such as the common cold, which can be contracted annually.

The Imperial researchers, who tested more than 365,000 adults over five months, found a decline in antibody levels in all age groups. The smallest drop was among young adults and the largest in the elderly. A bigger decline was also seen in those who reported asymptomatic infection versus those who had symptoms.

Other scientists continue to question the significance of antibody analysis, arguing that certain cell types whose presence is not detected by the tests play a crucial role in immunity.

Only T-Killers can save you now.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-covid-economy-carves-deep-divide-between-haves-and-have-nots-11601910595
The Covid Economy Carves Deep Divide Between Haves and Have-Nots
Comeback since start of pandemic is kind to those who can work from home, to firms serving them and to regions hospitable to them. Many others are left behind.

A two-track recovery is emerging from the country’s pandemic-driven economic contraction. Some workers, companies and regions show signs of coming out fine or even stronger. The rest are mired in a deep decline with an uncertain path ahead.

Just months ago, economists were predicting a V-shaped recovery—a rapid rebound from a steep fall—or a U-shaped path—a prolonged downturn before healing began.

What has developed is more like a K. On the upper arm of the K are well-educated and well-off people, businesses tied to the digital economy or supplying domestic necessities, and regions such as tech-forward Western cities. By and large, they are prospering.

On the bottom arm are lower-wage workers with fewer credentials, old-line businesses and regions tied to tourism and public gatherings. They can expect to bear years-long scars from the crisis.

The cure is worse than the disease 101

Decease - Covid
Dem Cure - save White Wealthy Urban Bachelor Libs, throw Poor/Low-Educated/Minority under Lock-down bus by false, racist rhetoric Grandma vs Economy.
Good work, everyone, good work...

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Decease - Covid
Dem Cure - save White Wealthy Urban Bachelor Libs, throw Poor/Low-Educated/Minority under Lock-down bus by false, racist rhetoric Grandma vs Economy.
Good work, everyone, good work...

Alternative take: Pandemic exposes what the Dems have been saying all along - women, minorities, the poor/low educated are particularly vulnerable economically and should get more government support via progressive economics as the long term solution (as opposed to ignoring the pandemic, which also kills the poor and minorities disproportionately).

Well, I'm for Universal Healthcare etc, but exactly same, if not worse, happens in Europe, it's not something unique to USA. _{Also, off-topic, but US libs are having it both ways. As Bernie had been saying, before he gave up to TDS mobb, you can't combine generous welfare state and high minimum wage with high low-educated immigration. That's why GOP has always been all, but rhetorically, pro-immigration.}

What Dems are doing is really dangerous (and racist), but it is a winning strategy.

- Closure of schools screws poor kids and poor women (who had to quite their job to take care of kids), but keeps Economy from rebounding. Obviously, Trump wants to open schools because of Economy, not because he cares about poor minority. But it's the consequences that counts, not the intentions, huh?

- Same with Pelosi not taking Trump's stimulus deal before elections - it is a winning strategy, that accidentally screw poor minority most. https://edition.cnn.com/videos/politics/2020/10/13/nancy-pelosi-intv-stimulus-bill-trump-offer-coronavirus-tsr-vpx.cnn

- And, as I wrote, in another thread, Liberal Hero who fought and won against Covid, Jacinda Ardern of New Zeland, postponed elections amid a spike in coronavirus cases. When Trump proposed same, it was FASCIST  
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/17/world/asia/new-zealand-election-coronavirus.html

Once again, a winning strategy. If postponed, people might see that American Economy would recover much faster than Europe, while Europe is being hit about as hard as US by deaths # and, perhaps, waaaaaay more heavily economically despite using Biden strategy, more or less. No, no, we are better voting now!


https://www.jacobinmag.com/2020/09/covid-19-pandemic-economy-us-response-inequality
F**k the usage of LatinX, but it is what real left, not Corporate White Virtue Signaling Libs is thinking about Covid Strategy.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

I've missed that, but Europe has started to have more death per capita on weakly basis (NOT cumulatively, Europe has 60% of USA deaths # cumulatively). 12% more and gap growing rapidly (60% more cases per capita, too). And it increases much more rapidly. Because of weather? Anyway, US will probably follow them in 2-4 weeks. Terrible.

New cases per million, Linear:

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Liberals of Europe vs TDS Libs of US. Guess who is following the science.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/10/30/world/covid-19-coronavirus-updates/schools-are-staying-open-in-europes-new-lockdowns-a-reversal-from-the-spring
Schools are staying open in Europe’s new lockdowns, a reversal from the spring.

When Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany announced the latest round of restrictions on public life, she named bars, restaurants, theaters, concert halls, gyms and tattoo parlors as institutions that would be forced to close. But missing from the list released on Wednesday were schools and day care centers — among the first to be shuttered in the spring lockdown.

In France, President Emmanuel Macron also said on Wednesday that schools would be exempt from wide-reaching nationwide restrictions that are to take effect beginning Friday. Ireland also allowed schools to remain open despite a nationwide lockdown that went into effect earlier this month.

.............

Micheal Martin, the Irish prime minister, said that while his country could no longer avoid restrictions, despite the detrimental impact on the economy, it was vital that schools remained open.

“We cannot and will not allow our children and young people’s futures to be another victim of this disease,” Mr. Martin said in a national address. “They need their education.”

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/10/30/world/covid-19-coronavirus-updates/los-angeles-schools-will-probably-stick-with-remote-learning-until-at-least-january
Los Angeles schools will probably stick with remote learning until at least January.

The vice president of the Board of Education, Jackie Goldberg, said that even January was optimistic.

“It may be February or March,” she said.

And at that point, she said, the question may be whether it is worth starting in-person instruction if many children have to change teachers that late in the year.

You f**king kidding me?


If it wasn't sick enough, there seems to be large share of parents who don't want their kids to go back to school even if they reopen. I guess it happened because Democrats and Free Press invested heavily into fearmorgering against reopening... only because Trump happens to be for reopening...

Many families in other districts are choosing to remain online even when they can go back. In New York City, the nation’s largest district, just over a fourth of students have returned to in-person instruction, Mayor Bill de Blasio said this week.

Own (poor) kids to own the cons.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Even Switzerland, UK, Belgium and Austria among others imposed lockdowns'ish now.

All of them are hit more heavily than US. All of them keeps schools and kindergartens open.


https://www.politico.eu/article/belgium-announces-second-coronavirus-lockdown/
Belgium

Non-essential shops to close and family visits no longer allowed, although schools will remain open.

https://www.thelocal.at/20201031/austria-to-go-into-hard-new-lockdown-starting-tuesday
Austria

Universities and high schools will be moved on to distance learning but kindergartens and other schools will remain open.

https://www.thelocal.ch/20201028/switzerland-announces-new-lockdown-measures
Switzerland

Universities are again forced to return to distance learning. Face-to-face teaching remains allowed in compulsory schools and upper secondary schools (grammar schools and vocational training).

UK
https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1322643870237270017




Wealth White Libs of US?
https://twitter.com/politico/status/1322327650296336384

They live and semi-gated/over-policed/uber-safe communities. They are OK with de-funding.
They have a well-paid jobs that easily can be switched to distance working. They are OK with severe lockdowns.
Their kids are placed to uber-rich schools. They are OK with closures [of public schools].

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/saikatc/status/1324038440900386816

Thanks, Nancy!

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Despite the recent horrific trends, it appears that the end is in sight: https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/09/health/pfizer-covid-19-vaccine-effective/index.html

Good news.  When a vaccine is available, the trick will be trying to convince the population to get it.  So many right wingers are weird.

It's not fun, man, and, as for now, Democrats successfully* politicized vaccine basically spreading conspiracy theories that Trump would somehow force CDC & Pharma to push for risky vaccine... Most notorious examples are Newsom and... Democrat Hero Cuomo, _{who, ironically and very sadly, killed a lot of Grandmas by sending sick ones back to their retirement homes.} This politicizing was, perhaps, the reason of Pfizer's timing.


*successfully
Proof:

https://news.gallup.com/poll/321839/readiness-covid-vaccine-falls-past-month.aspx


And, as always, the victims of Democratic propaganda, regardless if it is about school closure or vaccination are poor and/or minorities...


https://www.ppic.org/wp-content/uploads/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-october-2020.pdf

At least half of Californians across party lines say they would either definitely or probably get a COVID19 vaccine if one were available today: 56 percent of both Democrats and independents and 50 percent of Republicans. Across racial/ethnic groups, there are sharp differences: 70 percent of Asian Americans, 62 percent of whites, and 54 percent of Latinos say they would definitely or probably get a vaccine if available today, with 29 percent of African Americans saying definitely or probably.

California only, but I think, there is the same pattern across the US.


With that said, Dems will 100% change the tone now, because, obviously, they spread dangerous conspiracy theories to harm Trump, and won, so they don't need to do it any longer. But I really f**king afraid, that part of this damage is irreversible. Some AA families will unfortunately abstain from vaccination because of that, because of the Democratic propaganda.

The same has already happened to the schools. Some people are afraid of sending their kids back to schools, despite science saying it is not more dangerous that other activities and that this is vital to kids' future. The consequences of Democratic racist dangerous propaganda amplified by media is real and it is happening as we speak.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

(snip)

The reluctance some people have toward trusting this administration with guaranteeing the safety of a vaccine can be traced directly to Trump's pushing of hydroxychloroquine despite the fact that there was no evidence that it helps, as well as the whole fiasco of suggesting treating people with disinfectants - or "injecting bleach" as it became known in the popular shorthand. You can't unring the bell of crossing into such blatant medical quackery, and this is why he never should have been on television pretending to give out medical advice. If he had just shut his stupid mouth and let the medical experts lead, there wouldn't be major fears about the vaccine.

1) It is still a conspiracy to think that Trump would somehow get CDS & Big Pharma to approve a vaccine they otherwise wouldn't. I hope you agree?
2) Democrats could easily dispel this conspiracy theories or "fears" as you put it. They didn't. It was more like they riding the conspiracy/fears wave.
2) As you see, Blacks are waaaay more likely to restrain from taking a vaccine despite being most vulnerable demographics. They also happen to trust Dem Party more than others. See the pattern here? Among Asians 70% would take vs 29 among Blacks! Asians ar not "fearful".

It will be hilarious if the vaccine takes off right after Biden gets inaugurated.

It would be a lot like the Iran hostage crisis being resolved right after Reagan was sworn in.

Very hilarious, indeed. Besides the fact that the sooner people get vaccinated, the more will be saved. But Orange Bad would get mad!

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Eh, US loves conspiracy theories.

Even if we pretend that Trump would to try to "force" them all, CDC, FDA and Big Pharma would leak like a hell. 99,9% people working there actually wants to help people, not hurt them. How could one even think otherwise?

Obviously, Democrats know that, but are willing to explode people's fear of Trump Orange Bad. It will end ugly for those who won't vaccine because of that (probably small, but not insignificant share of low-educated poor minorities).

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

(snip)

The reluctance some people have toward trusting this administration with guaranteeing the safety of a vaccine can be traced directly to Trump's pushing of hydroxychloroquine despite the fact that there was no evidence that it helps, as well as the whole fiasco of suggesting treating people with disinfectants - or "injecting bleach" as it became known in the popular shorthand. You can't unring the bell of crossing into such blatant medical quackery, and this is why he never should have been on television pretending to give out medical advice. If he had just shut his stupid mouth and let the medical experts lead, there wouldn't be major fears about the vaccine.

1) It is still a conspiracy to think that Trump would somehow get CDS & Big Pharma to approve a vaccine they otherwise wouldn't. I hope you agree?
2) Democrats could easily dispel this conspiracy theories or "fears" as you put it. They didn't. It was more like they riding the conspiracy/fears wave.
2) As you see, Blacks are waaaay more likely to restrain from taking a vaccine despite being most vulnerable demographics. They also happen to trust Dem Party more than others. See the pattern here? Among Asians 70% would take vs 29 among Blacks! Asians ar not "fearful".

It will be hilarious if the vaccine takes off right after Biden gets inaugurated.

It would be a lot like the Iran hostage crisis being resolved right after Reagan was sworn in.

Very hilarious, indeed. Besides the fact that the sooner people get vaccinated, the more will be saved. But Orange Bad would get mad!

Ever heard of the Tuskegee experiment?

But it just proves my point, doesn't it? Because of the things like that, Democrats should be more cautious, not less, because it will disproportionally affect Black due to Tuskegee for example. As far as I know there is no evidence whatsoever that CDC/FDA/Big Pharma did anything they should't have done.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://mobile.twitter.com/keribla/status/1325914300096110592

So much less than among (D) Cuomo's retirement homes?


Pretty clear it is because of higher share of elderly people in this particular prison.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Deaths are lagging by approximately 3 weeks.


7-day rolling average of deaths:

          10 Nov        1 Dec (Prediction)
EU:     ~2700          ~4700 (+70%)
US:     ~1000          ~2000 (+100%)


It is based on assumption that healthcare system won't get overloaded.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/JedKolko/status/1326888536767823872

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/akoseff/status/1327308053151051776

Trump's fault!

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

President Trump says a COVID vaccine won't be delivered to New York until Gov. Cuomo authorizes it.

"It pains me to say that," Trump says.

Trump says "As soon as April, the vaccine will be available to the entire general population."

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

High humidity and very cold temps might make it easier to spread. I think that's the current belief.

Possibly because it forces people indoors and in enclosed spaces more. I'm not certain on the effects of the season itself.

Both parts are real.

But IIRC the studies says it is about cold + dry (not humid as poster above says). High humidity makes particles heavier = less spreading.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/PhilipRucker/status/1328314410318917633
Thank you, President Trump! Thank you, Big Greedy Pharma!

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Of Europe's top 5 largest economies, only Germany is way better than US.
Cumulative deaths/capita as for Nov 15

Spain 866 death per million
UK 775
Italy 741
US 720
France 660




Germany 150.


As of new deaths France and Italy has each 3 times more a day than US>>



All of these countries has been hit economically way harder than US.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

I'm trying to convince my family to cancel Thanksgiving but they don't care. I think the combination of stupidity, fatigue, and good news in the distance of a vaccine have all made people complacent.

 

https://twitter.com/seungminkim/status/1328438225787117568

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Even Jake Tapper of CNN admits the obvious.



https://twitter.com/Mediaite/status/1328457745620668430