COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[emailking]

First Poll:

https://twitter.com/benwakana46/status/1382436908689657867?s=20

This is good but potentially doesn't tell us much. The more confident folks may feel a little less uneasy about their decision to get a vaccine, but their mind hasn't changed. The less confident folks might not get one now. It could be the other way too, but it's not enough to know whether it will lead to more or fewer vaccinations.

[Horus]

First Poll:

https://twitter.com/benwakana46/status/1382436908689657867?s=20

Called it.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Fauci’s guidance, however, is also irresponsible, and I would expect more from him and the CDC.

If we want people to be vaccinated, we need to remove the recommended restrictions for vaccinated people.  The refusal to do so really does make it -appear- like public health officials have little confidence in the vaccines, despite all the evidence that they are stupendously effective.

He's playing it safe. He also knows the way many people in this country have been acting.

The CDC has already said it's fine for people that are vaccinated to congregate with others that are also vaccinated. I don't see the issue there. As for in public, everyone has to abide by the same regulations or the whole system breaks down. Wearing a mask and staying socially distant while at the grocery store is one of the easiest things you can do. If you're arguing for exemptions for those that are vaccinated, how exactly do you keep track of that? There's already a mass hysteria on the right over things like vaccine passports (because it's apparently necessary to keep a COVID vaccine top secret?).

I agree, it is very easy to do. Yet we've got folks in here practically saying "f*** the masks, I don't have to wear them anymore if I'm vaccinated".

Wearing a mask is generally only an inconvenience, but we still can't go to concerts or sporting events or pools or even many restaurants.  Why shouldn't these things be able to open up for vaccinated customers?

You're sidestepping my post.

So now the goal posts have been moved to demanding vaccines with 100% efficacy and zero side effects?

So now it seems Johnson and Johnson will be permanently pulled off the market. What is next? Pulling Pfizer and Moderna off the market as they aren't 100% efficacy??

And you really need to chill out and relax. Perhaps take a walk or a break?

[Progressive Pessimist]

First Poll:

https://twitter.com/benwakana46/status/1382436908689657867?s=20

Johnson & Johnson seems to have done the right thing here out of caution. It's an example of corporate accountability that I wish more corporations would demonstrate throughout their existence. Of course, one could argue that there is a financial motivation here-the company certainly doesn't want continued negative press-but at least it's in the public interest too.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

First Poll:

https://twitter.com/benwakana46/status/1382436908689657867?s=20

I guess I’m glad to see this, but the Neil Malhotra critique is important to consider.  This poll basically just breaks down the same way all polls about confidence in the vaccines did even before this.  It’s pretty likely almost no one’s mind was changed.

[ultraviolet]

This J&J outcry is ridiculous. Fauci is and always has been a fool

[emailking]

Johnson & Johnson seems to have done the right thing here out of caution. It's an example of corporate accountability that I wish more corporations would demonstrate throughout their existence.

What do you mean? The CDC and FDA asked for the pause, and Johnson & Johnson defended themselves and said there's no link established with the blood clots.

[emailking]

This J&J outcry is ridiculous. Fauci is and always has been a fool

Wasn't his decision, but he's explained pretty well that this kind of a pause is not atypical. It's just extremely high profile in this case.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

So now it seems Johnson and Johnson will be permanently pulled off the market. What is next? Pulling Pfizer and Moderna off the market as they aren't 100% efficacy??

Patience, jimmie.  I know you've been especially and rightfully anxious, but Dr. Fauci has explicitly stated that it's a pause, not a cancellation.  

People still believe in that quack? Wow.

[ProudModerate2]

Video: Many Evangelicals say they won't be vaccinated against Covid-19.

Click here to watch ... https://us.cnn.com/videos/us/2021/04/14/coronavirus-vaccine-evangelicals-reeve-pkg-vpx.cnn

You have got to watch this video.
If I sat in this church, during services, I would think that maybe I was transported to Saturn or somewhere strange (not anywhere on Earth).
I would be looking left, right, behind me ... just thinking these people have lost their minds.
Bizarre preacher of the kooky-est kind.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Has anyone seen an explanation for how Gibraltar has apparently vaccinated 105% of their total population?

[DINGO Joe]

Has anyone seen an explanation for how Gibraltar has apparently vaccinated 105% of their total population?

Apparently, half of the workforce are Spanish commuters who are eligible to get vaccinated in Gibraltar.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 4/14 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE:What's the overall change in the total?

Brackets []: These represent the total change for the day, including backlogged reports, if any.

• These numbers are inflated relative to the actual reports for the day, so they are not used to calculate the comparative percentage shifts.

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4/4 (Holiday): <Sunday>

• Cases: 31,420,331 (+38,126 | ΔW Change: ↓3.47% | Σ Increase: ↑0.12%)
• Deaths: 568,777 (+278 | ΔW Change: ↓38.90% | Σ Increase: ↑0.05%)

4/5: <M>

• Cases: 31,490,563 (+50,329 [+70,232] | ΔW Change: ↓15.71% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)
• Deaths: 569,197 (+420 | ΔW Change: ↓34.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.07%)

4/6: <T>

• Cases: 31,560,438 (+62,283 [+69,875] | ΔW Change: ↓1.69% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)
• Deaths: 570,260 (+906 [+1,063] | ΔW Change: ↓2.79% | Σ Increase: ↑0.19%)

4/7: <W>

• Cases: 31,637,243 (+76,805 | ΔW Change: ↑9.91% | Σ Increase: ↑0.24%)
• Deaths: 572,849 (+873 [+2,589] | ΔW Change: ↓21.91% | Σ Increase: ↑0.45%)

4/8: <Þ>

• Cases: 31,717,404 (+75,183 [+80,161] | ΔW Change: ↓3.97% | Σ Increase: ↑0.25%)
• Deaths: 573,856 (+872 [+1,007] | ΔW Change: ↓8.40% | Σ Increase: ↑0.18%)

4/9: <F>

• Cases: 31,802,772 (+85,368 | ΔW Change: ↑21.98% | Σ Increase: ↑0.27%)
• Deaths: 574,840 (+984 | ΔW Change: ↓1.50% | Σ Increase: ↑0.17%)

4/10: <S>

• Cases: 31,869,980 (+67,208 | ΔW Change: ↓0.60% | Σ Increase: ↑0.21%)
• Deaths: 575,593 (+753 | ΔW Change: ↓5.04% | Σ Increase: ↑0.13%)

4/11 (Last Sunday Holiday): <Sunday>

• Cases: 31,918,591 (+48,611 | ΔW Change: ↑27.50% | Σ Increase: ↑0.15%)
• Deaths: 575,829 (+293 | ΔW Change: ↑5.40% | Σ Increase: ↑0.04%)

4/12: <M>

• Cases: 31,990,143 (+56,522 [+71,552] | ΔW Change: ↑12.31% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)
• Deaths: 576,298 (+469 | ΔW Change: ↑11.67% | Σ Increase: ↑0.08%)

4/13 (Yesterday): <T>

• Cases: 32,070,784 (+77,720 [+80,641] | ΔW Change: ↑24.79% | Σ Increase: ↑0.25%)
• Deaths: 577,179 (+819 [+881] | ΔW Change: ↓9.60% | Σ Increase: ↑0.15%)

4/14 (Today): <W>

• Cases: 32,149,223 (+78,439 | ΔW Change: ↑2.13% | Σ Increase: ↑0.24%)
• Deaths: 578,092 (+913 | ΔW Change: ↑4.58% | Σ Increase: ↑0.16%)

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

So now it seems Johnson and Johnson will be permanently pulled off the market. What is next? Pulling Pfizer and Moderna off the market as they aren't 100% efficacy??

Patience, jimmie.  I know you've been especially and rightfully anxious, but Dr. Fauci has explicitly stated that it's a pause, not a cancellation.  

People still believe in that quack? Wow.

DTT, you're back! I don't think I've seen you around since the election. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/elizacollins1/status/1382685621861416970

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

So now it seems Johnson and Johnson will be permanently pulled off the market. What is next? Pulling Pfizer and Moderna off the market as they aren't 100% efficacy??

Patience, jimmie.  I know you've been especially and rightfully anxious, but Dr. Fauci has explicitly stated that it's a pause, not a cancellation.  

You can't trick me and jimmie. We both know what Fauci is about to do.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

So now it seems Johnson and Johnson will be permanently pulled off the market. What is next? Pulling Pfizer and Moderna off the market as they aren't 100% efficacy??

Patience, jimmie.  I know you've been especially and rightfully anxious, but Dr. Fauci has explicitly stated that it's a pause, not a cancellation.  

You can't trick me and jimmie. We both know what Fauci is about to do.

Mmm talk like that is gonna get you #cancelled, Russian Bear

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

So now it seems Johnson and Johnson will be permanently pulled off the market. What is next? Pulling Pfizer and Moderna off the market as they aren't 100% efficacy??

Patience, jimmie.  I know you've been especially and rightfully anxious, but Dr. Fauci has explicitly stated that it's a pause, not a cancellation.  

You can't trick me and jimmie. We both know what Fauci is about to do.

Mmm talk like that is gonna get you #cancelled, Russian Bear

Oh, I'm so sorry!

https://twitter.com/IvankaTrump/status/1382435705847226369

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

What do you think is the chance for you (healthy & young?) to get risk long-term lung damage? Even without being vaccinated it is quite low. And my understanding it's mostly those who needs to be hospitalized who risks to get it (and other "long-term" effects of Covid). The effectiveness against hospitalization caused by Covid-19 is around 95%, and probably even higher for young and healthy.

IMHO, there is no reasons health wise for a healthy young people to not get back to normal life.

Well

https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1382687836369952769
His calculations is flowed, but the results probably not so much off.

CDC Identifies Small Group of Covid-19 Infections Among Fully Vaccinated Patients
Incidence is rare, occurring in only 0.008% of cases and in line with expectations

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has identified a small cohort of approximately 5,800 cases of Covid-19 infection among more than 66 million Americans who have completed a full course of vaccination.

These so-called breakthrough cases, which are defined as positive Covid-19 test results received at least two weeks after patients receive their final vaccine dose, represent 0.008% of the fully vaccinated population.

Officials said such cases are in line with expectations because the approved vaccines in the U.S. are highly effective but not 100% foolproof. They are a reminder that even vaccinated people are at risk and should continue to take precautions such as masking and social distancing in many circumstances.

The CDC earlier this year asked state health departments to track and report breakthrough cases to the federal government. So far, the cases that have been reported come from about 40 states.

Separately, The Wall Street Journal contacted health departments in all 50 states and the District of Columbia to ask how many breakthrough cases had been identified. Twenty-three states responded, reporting a total of 4,172 breakthrough cases.

Of the breakthrough cases identified by the CDC, more than 40% occurred in people older than 60, while 65% of the cases were in female patients, according to Tom Clark, leader of the vaccine evaluation team at the federal agency. The CDC found that 29% of breakthrough infections were asymptomatic and 7% of patients experiencing a breakthrough infection were hospitalized. So far, 74 people have died after experiencing breakthrough infections. The agency is expected to publish some of these findings next week.

https://twitter.com/tiffanyrg9/status/1381436779434151943

[Asta]

Pfizer CEO believes third dose will likely be needed.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/15/pfizer-ceo-says-third-covid-vaccine-dose-likely-needed-within-12-months.html

[100% pro-life no matter what]

New Hampshire becomes the 24th state without a mask mandate, effective tomorrow.

Actually, if Louisiana, Kentucky, and West Virginia were to repeal theirs, it would kind of look like a passable election map.  New Hampshire voting to the right of Ohio and North Carolina would be a little odd, but it would be in the theoretical range of possibilities.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

New Hampshire becomes the 24th state without a mask mandate, effective tomorrow.

Actually, if Louisiana, Kentucky, and West Virginia were to repeal theirs, it would kind of look like a passable election map.  New Hampshire voting to the right of Ohio and North Carolina would be a little odd, but it would be in the theoretical range of possibilities.

New Hampshire leads the nation in vaccination rate right now, and by a pretty decent margin.  So this seems pretty justified to me.

I wish more states would explicitly link the lifting of restrictions to vaccination rates (e.g. mask mandate will be lifted once 50% of adults are vaccinated).

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

/CDC tweet snip

All this talk about a new surge would be easier to follow if states would report how many new cases were from vaccinated individuals (As well as their age)

[Progressive Pessimist]

Johnson & Johnson seems to have done the right thing here out of caution. It's an example of corporate accountability that I wish more corporations would demonstrate throughout their existence.

What do you mean? The CDC and FDA asked for the pause, and Johnson & Johnson defended themselves and said there's no link established with the blood clots.

Yeah, it turned out that I realized I was mistaken shortly after writing this.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 4/15 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE:What's the overall change in the total?

Brackets []: These represent the total change for the day, including backlogged reports, if any.

• These numbers are inflated relative to the actual reports for the day, so they are not used to calculate the comparative percentage shifts.

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4/4 (Holiday): <Sunday>

• Cases: 31,420,331 (+38,126 | ΔW Change: ↓3.47% | Σ Increase: ↑0.12%)
• Deaths: 568,777 (+278 | ΔW Change: ↓38.90% | Σ Increase: ↑0.05%)

4/5: <M>

• Cases: 31,490,563 (+50,329 [+70,232] | ΔW Change: ↓15.71% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)
• Deaths: 569,197 (+420 | ΔW Change: ↓34.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.07%)

4/6: <T>

• Cases: 31,560,438 (+62,283 [+69,875] | ΔW Change: ↓1.69% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)
• Deaths: 570,260 (+906 [+1,063] | ΔW Change: ↓2.79% | Σ Increase: ↑0.19%)

4/7: <W>

• Cases: 31,637,243 (+76,805 | ΔW Change: ↑9.91% | Σ Increase: ↑0.24%)
• Deaths: 572,849 (+873 [+2,589] | ΔW Change: ↓21.91% | Σ Increase: ↑0.45%)

4/8: <Þ>

• Cases: 31,717,404 (+75,183 [+80,161] | ΔW Change: ↓3.97% | Σ Increase: ↑0.25%)
• Deaths: 573,856 (+872 [+1,007] | ΔW Change: ↓8.40% | Σ Increase: ↑0.18%)

4/9: <F>

• Cases: 31,802,772 (+85,368 | ΔW Change: ↑21.98% | Σ Increase: ↑0.27%)
• Deaths: 574,840 (+984 | ΔW Change: ↓1.50% | Σ Increase: ↑0.17%)

4/10: <S>

• Cases: 31,869,980 (+67,208 | ΔW Change: ↓0.60% | Σ Increase: ↑0.21%)
• Deaths: 575,593 (+753 | ΔW Change: ↓5.04% | Σ Increase: ↑0.13%)

4/11 (Last Sunday Holiday): <Sunday>

• Cases: 31,918,591 (+48,611 | ΔW Change: ↑27.50% | Σ Increase: ↑0.15%)
• Deaths: 575,829 (+293 | ΔW Change: ↑5.40% | Σ Increase: ↑0.04%)

4/12: <M>

• Cases: 31,990,143 (+56,522 [+71,552] | ΔW Change: ↑12.31% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)
• Deaths: 576,298 (+469 | ΔW Change: ↑11.67% | Σ Increase: ↑0.08%)

4/13: <T>

• Cases: 32,070,784 (+77,720 [+80,641] | ΔW Change: ↑24.79% | Σ Increase: ↑0.25%)
• Deaths: 577,179 (+819 [+881] | ΔW Change: ↓9.60% | Σ Increase: ↑0.15%)

4/14 (Yesterday): <W>

• Cases: 32,149,223 (+78,439 | ΔW Change: ↑2.13% | Σ Increase: ↑0.24%)
• Deaths: 578,092 (+913 | ΔW Change: ↑4.58% | Σ Increase: ↑0.16%)

4/15 (Today): <Þ>

• Cases: 32,224,139 (+74,916 | ΔW Change: ↓0.36% | Σ Increase: ↑0.23%)
• Deaths: 578,993 (+901 | ΔW Change: ↑3.33% | Σ Increase: ↑0.16%)