COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[Asta]

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/science/science-briefs/fully-vaccinated-people.html

"A growing body of evidence suggests that fully vaccinated people are less likely to have asymptomatic infection and potentially less likely to transmit SARS-CoV-2 to others. However, further investigation is ongoing."

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/01/health/coronavirus-vaccine-walensky.html

Can Vaccinated People Spread the Virus? We Don’t Know, Scientists Say.


What do you expect Fauci to say at this stage with less than half of Americans fully vaccinated? You shouldn't state anything in concrete form until they unearth more of the unknowns of the virus. That's why you see scientific studies always saying "it may increase the risk of xx" even if it supports previous studies stating the same.

For someone like Silver whose specialty is hedging with remarks like "Trump could still have a chance", his attacks on Fauci and diction of "gaslighting" are relatively undeserved.

[Asta]

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/science/science-briefs/fully-vaccinated-people.html

"A growing body of evidence suggests that fully vaccinated people are less likely to have asymptomatic infection and potentially less likely to transmit SARS-CoV-2 to others. However, further investigation is ongoing."

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/01/health/coronavirus-vaccine-walensky.html

Can Vaccinated People Spread the Virus? We Don’t Know, Scientists Say.


What do you expect Fauci to say at this stage with less than half of Americans fully vaccinated? You shouldn't state anything in concrete form until they unearth more of the unknowns of the virus. That's why you see scientific studies always saying "it may increase the risk of xx" even if it supports previous studies stating the same.

For someone like Silver whose specialty is hedging with remarks like "Trump could still have a chance", his attacks on Fauci and diction of "gaslighting" are relatively undeserved.

He should say something like “there is strong scientific evidence from multiple sources that vaccination dramatically reduces your risk of becoming infected or spreading the infection.”. Because this is the most accurate summary of the evidence.  

Then he’s free to add “further investigation is ongoing” if he wants.

Sometimes I feel like even the best medical researchers have no sense of Bayesian statistics at all.

The only thing article has stated is that Fauci will take precautions till we know for sure vaccinated people don't spread it.

It never mentions whether he was personally asked the question of "Do you think multiple studies pointing to effectiveness are valid? If he said "those studies don't mean anything and we must still be careful" then that's one thing. But that's not what the context, at least based on how I read, indicates.

The article is full of how Fauci, himself, personally doesn't engage in risk-prone activities...yet. And it even goes on to mention how he is just a workhorse in general.

Silver took things out of context and blew them out of proportion.

[Asta]

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/science/science-briefs/fully-vaccinated-people.html

"A growing body of evidence suggests that fully vaccinated people are less likely to have asymptomatic infection and potentially less likely to transmit SARS-CoV-2 to others. However, further investigation is ongoing."

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/01/health/coronavirus-vaccine-walensky.html

Can Vaccinated People Spread the Virus? We Don’t Know, Scientists Say.


What do you expect Fauci to say at this stage with less than half of Americans fully vaccinated? You shouldn't state anything in concrete form until they unearth more of the unknowns of the virus. That's why you see scientific studies always saying "it may increase the risk of xx" even if it supports previous studies stating the same.

For someone like Silver whose specialty is hedging with remarks like "Trump could still have a chance", his attacks on Fauci and diction of "gaslighting" are relatively undeserved.

Fauci remains cautious, and I think his comments may very well have been misinterpreted. He and other public health officials, including the CDC Director, have urged people to continue to adhering to coronavirus precautions until we've obtained a higher vaccination rate. He seems to believe we will be back to normal by the time this year is out.

Agreed. I have no problem with CDC, as they often seem to be, on the conservative side of conclusions. I don't care about Fauci much at all, but the hatred and nitpicking that he gets from the right and even the left wingers are absurd.

[Asta]

Pfizer CEO believes third dose will likely be needed.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/15/pfizer-ceo-says-third-covid-vaccine-dose-likely-needed-within-12-months.html

[Asta]

Getting my first Pfizer dose on Friday. It might sound odd, but quite a number of people around me reported feeling sicker than media have made it seem. Some took more than a day or two to recover. Hearing these kinds of stories get me nervous, admittedly.

[Asta]

Getting my first Pfizer dose on Friday. It might sound odd, but quite a number of people around me reported feeling sicker than media have made it seem. Some took more than a day or two to recover. Hearing these kinds of stories get me nervous, admittedly.

I've had both Pfizer shots and they weren't bad (YMMV, of course).  The first one just made sleepy starting about 3 hours later, lasting the rest of the afternoon.  The second one made me tired and achy the next day, but it wasn't nearly as bad as a case of the flu.  I was fine the day after that except for a mildly sore arm that lasted a few more days.

That's encouraging to hear, GM. Thanks for sharing that!

[Asta]

Getting my first Pfizer dose on Friday. It might sound odd, but quite a number of people around me reported feeling sicker than media have made it seem. Some took more than a day or two to recover. Hearing these kinds of stories get me nervous, admittedly.

Are they younger [and/or females] then the average vaccinated? Because the younger people and females generally has better immune system then elder and males.

If anything, you should worry more (not really), if you have no symptoms at all, than more severe-than-average.

Roughly even number of males and females. They're in their 20's and 30's so they're on the younger side.

So are you implying that better immune system means higher chance of side effects? If so, that aligns with what I've read that women are more likely to feel effects than men are.

[Asta]

Girlfriend got Pfizer II yesterday morning, had a mild fever in the evening but slept it off and was fine.

I got J+J last week, had a moderate fever and night chills so I couldn't sleep, but was fine by mid-morning.

Just get your shot in the morning, drink a lot of water throughout the day, and pop a tylenol before bed.

Noted. I got my first Moderna shot just a few hours ago. I didn't expect the arm pain to occur this fast, but I can deal with it if it means that I don't have to be as concerned about the coronavirus.

Where did you get yours? I'm getting mine in Paramus tomorrow.

[Asta]

https://twitter.com/samstein/status/1385587437699837952
People of Wisconsin...please get rid of this jerk if he runs again.

Ron Johnson is quickly climbing the ranks of the worst people in the US Senate.

He's among the worst people in the entire Congress. And its astonishing how low he's gone in an effort to appeal to the Trumpists, when they won't be enough by themselves to win him reelection next year. His previous two wins over Feingold were fueled by his dominance in the ancestrally Republican WOW suburbs, and as 2020 showed, they are trending away from the Party.

They may just be Trump skeptics rather than those feeling abhorrent of the Republican Party. We just don't know right now how much redder rural areas will become. Every time I think I have seen a despicable remark, someone new always seems to come along to prove me wrong. I've learned to keep myself open to facing the worst.

[Asta]

Girlfriend got Pfizer II yesterday morning, had a mild fever in the evening but slept it off and was fine.

I got J+J last week, had a moderate fever and night chills so I couldn't sleep, but was fine by mid-morning.

Just get your shot in the morning, drink a lot of water throughout the day, and pop a tylenol before bed.

Noted. I got my first Moderna shot just a few hours ago. I didn't expect the arm pain to occur this fast, but I can deal with it if it means that I don't have to be as concerned about the coronavirus.

Where did you get yours? I'm getting mine in Paramus tomorrow.

Haha! No way! I live in Paramus, so I got mine here too. At Bergen New Bridge Medical Center.

Bergen New Bridge Medical Center was actually my first choice too, but the time slots were all filled. I got mine in Valley Health Plaza, which is about 5 minute drive away.

I actually live in Englewood, but my city was all filled up this week. Longer drive, but all worth it 

[Asta]

https://twitter.com/samstein/status/1385587437699837952
People of Wisconsin...please get rid of this jerk if he runs again.

Ron Johnson is quickly climbing the ranks of the worst people in the US Senate.

He's among the worst people in the entire Congress. And its astonishing how low he's gone in an effort to appeal to the Trumpists, when they won't be enough by themselves to win him reelection next year. His previous two wins over Feingold were fueled by his dominance in the ancestrally Republican WOW suburbs, and as 2020 showed, they are trending away from the Party.

They may just be Trump skeptics rather than those feeling abhorrent of the Republican Party. We just don't know right now how much redder rural areas will become. Every time I think I have seen a despicable remark, someone new always seems to come along to prove me wrong. I've learned to keep myself open to facing the worst.

Many of them are, yes. But it's undeniable that there is a long-term Democratic trend in the WOW counties, as there have been in educated suburbs throughout the country, and it's one that I expect to continue. Trends are indeed real, and I wouldn't be surprised if Johnson does better than he's ever done before in Wisconsin's rural areas next year, assuming he runs for reelection.

I don't think the trend is really too meaningful as of now. It seems to me like Biden getting a larger share of 2016 3rd party voters was just enough for him.

Biden's current approval rating in Wisconsin doesn't exactly inspire me, considering Wisconsin was one of the states with the biggest polling miss. And that's despite his avoidance of trouble for the most part. We'll see.

[Asta]

Got my 2nd Pfizer dose this morning, but I'm not sure whether I should take my mask off two weeks from now.

Some would argue it's all about the state of mind, but no matter what the statistics says about plummeting hospitalization and infection rate, NY metro was and still remains a hotspot, and I'll probably feel uncomfortable for months and years to come. I'm already dreading having to go back to Manhattan for work when my company calls me to come back.

[Asta]

May 15, 2021 Vaccination Update

Percentage of population fully vaccinated according to CDC

National Average: 36.7%

CT: 47.6%
DE: 38.8%
DC: 38.2%
FL: 35.4%
HI: 43.1%
IN: 32.1%
LA: 29.5%
MD: 41.9%
MA: 46.0%
MS: 25.2%
NH: 35.4%
NJ: 43.8%
PR: 31.0%
RI: 45.5%
VT: 46.1%
WV: 38.2%

Some states are too small or oddly shaped to have numbers fit properly on them, so they're listed above


One thing that really strikes me is the difference between New Hampshire, with a percentage of fully vaccinated people at 35.4% (below the national average), and every other New England state, which are all above 45.0% and rank together as being the top 5 in the nation. Why is this? "Live free or die" taken too literally?

Partisan composition probably does explain a bulk of the vaccination rate. NH Republicans are relatively conservative compared to other Republicans in the Northeast. NH Democrats are less liberal than Democrats in the Northeast.

The caveat is that this was based on 2004 data so there could be huge variability. And it doesn't explain why Maine has a high vaccination rate even though Democrats there are more moderate (perhaps the high number of senior citizens?). But again, migration and composition of the ideology could have changed a lot in the past 17 years.

[Asta]

So, I got my second Moderna dose today. My arm isn't hurting as much as last time, but I'm bit worried that i might experience worse effects in other ways by tomorrow. Hopefully I won't. But either way, I am still glad I am immune now (well, in two weeks).

And on the mask front, nothing seems any different. I went to a few stores and there wasn't anybody obnoxiously making a scene or complaining about still having to wear a mask, as I had feared, thankfully. For now, at least.

Update...if anyone cares: I feel great today! Absolutely no effects other than the arm pain which wasn't even as noticeable or lasted as long. I guess the effects of the vaccine really do vary from person to person.

Good to hear. My side effect also was only arm pain/soreness, except for me it was the opposite. My 2nd dose made me a bit more sore than my 1st.

Our state is one of the more vaccinated states, but most people are still wearing masks. I just went to Paramus Park for shopping and again, there was no one without a mask. I don't think people here are as comfortable taking it off with or without restrictions (understandably so)

[Asta]

Good to hear. My side effect also was only arm pain/soreness, except for me it was the opposite. My 2nd dose made me a bit  most people are still wearing masks. I just went to Paramus Park for shopping and again, there was no one without a mask. I don't think people here are as comfortable taking it off with or without restrictions (understandably so)

Same here in Southern California. Went to Costco earlier this week and no one was maskless. In fact, I think I've seen more masked folks this month than I ever have back in November when the state restrictions were brought back.

And I don't know if I'd put it on state mandates either cause this particular area (Inland Empire) hasn't been very active when it comes to enforcing mask-wearing & social distancing.

I don't think I saw a single person in Costco here without a mask even among seniors, many of whom were probably fully vaccinated. But to be fair, NJ is one of the hardest hit states in the country.

I have no problem with someone who refuses to wear a mask after being fully vaccinated but I am also supportive of people wearing it for months and even years to come in certain context. Covid has the capacity to cause respiratory and cardiac issues for months in some people. The nature of the virus is still arcane and needs to be unearthed for years to come.  It's unlikely to happen but people should respect the choice of mask vs no masks among vaccinated people, as people have the right to determine how to reconcile lifestyle restriction with health concerns.

[Asta]

I know Atlas doesn’t want to hear bad news ever, but 26 out of the 73 people who have died from the Delta variant in the UK being fully vaccinated is a bit concerning. This is not even a case of symptomatic cases...we are talking full on deaths, which one would think would be more likely to be prevented by vaccines, even with these variants.
It’s a very small sample size and we have other data demonstrating strong efficacy of these vaccines as well, but still, we shouldn’t just say everything’s all okay and great now because that’s what makes us feel better.
We need to keep an eye on Delta and learn more about it, and we really need more information on Delta Plus.

I know posters above want to live in lalaland because it’s fun (and I’m guilty of the opposite admittedly), but eventually they will have to grow up and understand reality isn’t so positive all the time.
There is still plenty of reason to be hopeful, and we can quickly adapt these MRNA vaccines if needed, but we are clearly not finished and won’t be for a while.

I don't think it's crazy to be on the opposite spectrum. Maybe that's just my warped view of living in a hard-hit state, but objectively, Americans are among the more obese and unhealthy people in the world. The better question is why we seem to be so drowned in lala land. But if I've learned anything, Americans grossly overestimate how healthy they are, even though roughly 50-60% of Americans are taking some kind of prescription drugs.

And avoiding deaths isn't anything to celebrate. I know tons of elderly here that are still having complications.

[Asta]

Got my first shot today, been having bad anxiety though (but this preceded even my going to bed)

You'll be fine. I was anxious before both of my shots. All I had was pain at the injection site for a few days if that helps you.

[Asta]

In general, why is it that black people seem to have lower vaccination rates than Hispanics/Natives? It’s something that sticks out on that map.

Well as a black person I would say that religion seems to be playing a big role

At least it is when it comes to my family because I have lost count of how many times that I have heard somebody tell me that they think the vaccines are the mark of the beast from the book of revelations because of what some fool on Facebook told them

Unfortunately, social media has actually convinced a lot of them that Covid is a sign of the end times

I'm Korean-American and 60-65% of us, including myself are Christians, nearly all of which are evangelicals. Koreans are among the most religious people there are. Nearly every Korean-owned small businesses have crucifixes, church cassette tapes, or their church calendars.

Yet it's very, very hard to meet a Korean in NY/NJ metro that has not gotten vaccinated yet. Most of them got vaccinated during first few weeks it was available to them.

It's entirely consistent with polls and research showing that Asians are the most likely to be vaccinated.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=464953.0

Secondly, blacks are just as likely to get vaccinated once education has been controlled for. I also used to think that religiosity is the primary driver in vaccine skepticism, but I'm not sure that it is anymore.

[Asta]

Masks aren’t even that effective to begin with unless you’re already sick. The virus is mild now and transmission is relatively low (although likely to oscillate over the next several months) anyway. Masking is mostly a false sense of security at this point yet a few people here and in other places I know online continue to do it because they’ve become germaphobes thanks to the Democrats fear mongering (even if it was justified pre-vaccine) of the virus. They should be allowed to do it yes but I should also be allowed to think it’s dumb.

I mentioned above that there is one coworker at my job who stopped wearing a mask this week, after having held out for a month. He told me that he was waiting to get his booster shot, and now that he has it, he's done. At least he had a relatively good reason. But I had another coworker who went maskless for a few days, after having held out, because she said that the mask was uncomfortable.

But she went right back to masking after that, and I don't know when she is going to stop. And there is yet another coworker-an older lady-who is still masking up, but with a cloth mask that she doesn't even fit on properly. There is one more coworker who is still wearing an N95 mask, although none of the other people in her department are still masking up. Everyone has their preferences, but I don't always understand them.

Among the people in my area that still wear masks even outside, a big number of them tends to be East Asian immigrants who still maintain culturally considerate and collective behavior they brought over from their native land where wearing masks during cold/flu season in pre-covid era was already prevalent. I understand this thread has been inundated with obsessive level as to why the pandemic is not ending, but this behavior is not limited to the US.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-022-01057-z

"....... in a survey in Germany among >650 respondents, we find that the majority plans to use face masks in certain situations even after the end of the pandemic. We observe that this willingness is strongly related to the perception that there is something to be learned from East Asians’ handling of pandemics, even when controlling for perceived protection by wearing masks. Given strong empirical evidence that face masks help prevent the spread of respiratory diseases and given the considerable estimated health and economic costs of such diseases even pre-Corona, this would be a very positive side effect of the current crisis."

Why some choose to wear masks is not related to Biden, Fauci or government's fearmongering, as you can see the remnant behavior exists in countries like Germany too.
Certain events can and will change mindsets for the long term. It's the same reason why considerable number of employers have made remote work viable even after the economy has mostly opened up: less need to come to office so frequently when productivity and lifestyle balance can be achieved without having as much contact and commute-related stress.

Even though I mostly avoid wearing masks, I perfectly understand why some continue to wear them. In epidemiology, there are rarely such things as absolutes and guarantees. We should respect that culture, risk aversion and lingering effects of trauma affect everyone differently.

[Asta]

Masks aren’t even that effective to begin with unless you’re already sick. The virus is mild now and transmission is relatively low (although likely to oscillate over the next several months) anyway. Masking is mostly a false sense of security at this point yet a few people here and in other places I know online continue to do it because they’ve become germaphobes thanks to the Democrats fear mongering (even if it was justified pre-vaccine) of the virus. They should be allowed to do it yes but I should also be allowed to think it’s dumb.

I mentioned above that there is one coworker at my job who stopped wearing a mask this week, after having held out for a month. He told me that he was waiting to get his booster shot, and now that he has it, he's done. At least he had a relatively good reason. But I had another coworker who went maskless for a few days, after having held out, because she said that the mask was uncomfortable.

But she went right back to masking after that, and I don't know when she is going to stop. And there is yet another coworker-an older lady-who is still masking up, but with a cloth mask that she doesn't even fit on properly. There is one more coworker who is still wearing an N95 mask, although none of the other people in her department are still masking up. Everyone has their preferences, but I don't always understand them.

Among the people in my area that still wear masks even outside, a big number of them tends to be East Asian immigrants who still maintain culturally considerate and collective neurotic and anti social behavior they brought over from their native land where wearing masks during cold/flu season in pre-covid era was already prevalent. I understand this thread has been inundated with obsessive level as to why the pandemic is not ending, but this behavior is not limited to the US.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-022-01057-z

"....... in a survey in Germany among >650 respondents, we find that the majority plans to use face masks in certain situations even after the end of the pandemic. We observe that this willingness is strongly related to the perception that there is something to be learned from East Asians’ handling of pandemics, even when controlling for perceived protection by wearing masks. Given strong empirical evidence that face masks help prevent the spread of respiratory diseases and given the considerable estimated health and economic costs of such diseases even pre-Corona, this would be a very positive side effect of the current crisis."

Why some choose to wear masks is not related to Biden, Fauci or government's fearmongering, as you can see the remnant behavior exists in countries like Germany too.
Certain events can and will change mindsets for the long term. It's the same reason why considerable number of employers have made remote work viable even after the economy has mostly opened up: less need to come to office so frequently when productivity and lifestyle balance can be achieved without having as much contact and commute-related stress.

Even though I mostly avoid wearing masks, I perfectly understand why some continue to wear them. In epidemiology, there are rarely such things as absolutes and guarantees. We should respect that culture, risk aversion and lingering effects of trauma affect everyone differently.

Ftfy

This is speculation at best. If their behavior is as you posit, then they should have extremely high anxiety medication and antidepressant usage rates, but they don't.

[Asta]

Masks aren’t even that effective to begin with unless you’re already sick. The virus is mild now and transmission is relatively low (although likely to oscillate over the next several months) anyway. Masking is mostly a false sense of security at this point yet a few people here and in other places I know online continue to do it because they’ve become germaphobes thanks to the Democrats fear mongering (even if it was justified pre-vaccine) of the virus. They should be allowed to do it yes but I should also be allowed to think it’s dumb.

I mentioned above that there is one coworker at my job who stopped wearing a mask this week, after having held out for a month. He told me that he was waiting to get his booster shot, and now that he has it, he's done. At least he had a relatively good reason. But I had another coworker who went maskless for a few days, after having held out, because she said that the mask was uncomfortable.

But she went right back to masking after that, and I don't know when she is going to stop. And there is yet another coworker-an older lady-who is still masking up, but with a cloth mask that she doesn't even fit on properly. There is one more coworker who is still wearing an N95 mask, although none of the other people in her department are still masking up. Everyone has their preferences, but I don't always understand them.

Among the people in my area that still wear masks even outside, a big number of them tends to be East Asian immigrants who still maintain culturally considerate and collective neurotic and anti social behavior they brought over from their native land where wearing masks during cold/flu season in pre-covid era was already prevalent. I understand this thread has been inundated with obsessive level as to why the pandemic is not ending, but this behavior is not limited to the US.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-022-01057-z

"....... in a survey in Germany among >650 respondents, we find that the majority plans to use face masks in certain situations even after the end of the pandemic. We observe that this willingness is strongly related to the perception that there is something to be learned from East Asians’ handling of pandemics, even when controlling for perceived protection by wearing masks. Given strong empirical evidence that face masks help prevent the spread of respiratory diseases and given the considerable estimated health and economic costs of such diseases even pre-Corona, this would be a very positive side effect of the current crisis."

Why some choose to wear masks is not related to Biden, Fauci or government's fearmongering, as you can see the remnant behavior exists in countries like Germany too.
Certain events can and will change mindsets for the long term. It's the same reason why considerable number of employers have made remote work viable even after the economy has mostly opened up: less need to come to office so frequently when productivity and lifestyle balance can be achieved without having as much contact and commute-related stress.

Even though I mostly avoid wearing masks, I perfectly understand why some continue to wear them. In epidemiology, there are rarely such things as absolutes and guarantees. We should respect that culture, risk aversion and lingering effects of trauma affect everyone differently.

Ftfy

This is speculation at best. If their behavior is as you posit, then they should have extremely high anxiety medication and antidepressant usage rates, but they don't.

I would bet everything I own that eternal maskers in the United States and other Western countries have much higher rates of anxiety and depression than John Q Public, and I say that as someone taking antidepressants.

I was talking about East Asian immigrants in my sentence. If you're broadly speaking of all eternal maskers in the West only, I don't challenge your claim.

In China, oddly enough, properly adhering to masks guideline seems to be inversely correlated with anxiety though I admit this can have a different effect in the West.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8695308/