COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

If we want people to be vaccinated, we need to remove the recommended restrictions for vaccinated people.  The refusal to do so really does make it -appear- like public health officials have little confidence in the vaccines, despite all the evidence that they are stupendously effective.

That sounds like you're saying we need to trick people. We need people to think health officials are sure that vaccinated people can't spread the virus (though they aren't) so they'll take the vaccine so they don't die (which they are sure of).

No, there is no need to trick people that vaccines are more effective than the actually are.  Health officials are indeed not telling people the truth about what we already know.   They are intentionally downplaying their effectiveness.

All of the evidence suggests that being vaccinated reduces all risks associated with covid to an extremely low level, certainly lower than any number of other risks we encounter on a daily basis without a second thought.  Given this, the risk is low enough that any health precautions beyond those we would have taken pre-pandemic are not warranted.

[emailking]

No, there is no need to trick people that vaccines are more effective than the actually are.  Health officials are indeed not telling people the truth about what we already know.   They are intentionally downplaying their effectiveness.

All of the evidence suggests that being vaccinated reduces all risks associated with covid to an extremely low level, certainly lower than any number of other risks we encounter on a daily basis without a second thought.  Given this, the risk is low enough that any health precautions beyond those we would have taken pre-pandemic are not warranted.

I don't see any reason to think they're not telling the truth.

[politicallefty]

Fauci’s guidance, however, is also irresponsible, and I would expect more from him and the CDC.

If we want people to be vaccinated, we need to remove the recommended restrictions for vaccinated people.  The refusal to do so really does make it -appear- like public health officials have little confidence in the vaccines, despite all the evidence that they are stupendously effective.

He's playing it safe. He also knows the way many people in this country have been acting.

The CDC has already said it's fine for people that are vaccinated to congregate with others that are also vaccinated. I don't see the issue there. As for in public, everyone has to abide by the same regulations or the whole system breaks down. Wearing a mask and staying socially distant while at the grocery store is one of the easiest things you can do. If you're arguing for exemptions for those that are vaccinated, how exactly do you keep track of that? There's already a mass hysteria on the right over things like vaccine passports (because it's apparently necessary to keep a COVID vaccine top secret?).

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Fauci’s guidance, however, is also irresponsible, and I would expect more from him and the CDC.

If we want people to be vaccinated, we need to remove the recommended restrictions for vaccinated people.  The refusal to do so really does make it -appear- like public health officials have little confidence in the vaccines, despite all the evidence that they are stupendously effective.

He's playing it safe. He also knows the way many people in this country have been acting.

The CDC has already said it's fine for people that are vaccinated to congregate with others that are also vaccinated. I don't see the issue there. As for in public, everyone has to abide by the same regulations or the whole system breaks down. Wearing a mask and staying socially distant while at the grocery store is one of the easiest things you can do. If you're arguing for exemptions for those that are vaccinated, how exactly do you keep track of that? There's already a mass hysteria on the right over things like vaccine passports (because it's apparently necessary to keep a COVID vaccine top secret?).

We should absolutely have different rules for vaccinated and unvaccinated people.  Why should the lifestyles of responsible people be held hostage to the whims of anti-vax conspiracy theorists?

And I don’t understand the whole “how do you keep track that?” argument.
You need a license to drive a car.  How do we keep track of that?  I drive my car almost every day, and I often go years without anyone asking if have a license to drive it.  And yet, almost everyone on the road abides by the requirement to have a driver’s license.

No one makes an argument like “Well, some people aren’t safe drivers, and even if we require a test for safe driving, we won’t be able to tell the safe drivers from the unsafe ones while they're on the road, so therefore no one should be allowed to drive!”

How would it be any different with a vaccine card?

[politicallefty]

We should absolutely have different rules for vaccinated and unvaccinated people.  Why should the lifestyles of responsible people be held hostage to the whims of anti-vax conspiracy theorists?

And I don’t understand the whole “how do you keep track that?” argument.
You need a license to drive a car.  How do we keep track of that?  I drive my car almost ever day, and I often go years without anyone asking if have a license to drive it.  And yet, almost everyone on the road abides by the requirement to have a driver’s license.

No one makes an argument like “Well, some people aren’t safe drivers, and even if we require a test for safe driving, we won’t be able to tell the safe drivers from the unsafe ones while there on the road, so therefore no one should be allowed to drive!”

How would it be any different with a vaccine card?

That's hardly the same thing. A driver's license is a government ID and the government knows whether or not you have a valid one, whether or not you show it (although having it on your person is required to drive, of course). There's a multitude of reasons as to why you don't want to risk having an expired license. One, your fate isn't always in your own hands. Second, the penalties can be quite nasty in terms of the law and insurance. Third, if you let it go too long, you have to start the process from the beginning and take the written and driving tests again. I could go on, but my main point is that it's risky because there are penalties.

I'm arguing that we don't have an adequate system set up right now. If you're arguing for doing something like this down the road, I would agree with you. If you're arguing for right away, I'm saying it's too soon. I say this as someone that has already had the first dose of Pfizer. The CDC COVID cards are a good start, but there's already a black market for fraudulent ones. It would be nice if we could open up restaurants to people that are fully vaccinated (and require showing proof). That industry has suffered enough. I don't think a model works like that for grocery stores and such, where it's a lot of people constantly going in and out. Most stores don't even check for masks, although there is a social pressure to do so. But I don't see the problem with wearing a mask in a grocery store and keeping a few feet of distance in lines and such. You can't wear a mask while eating in a restaurant, which is why I specifically mentioned restaurants. Something like that could also work as an incentive for people to vaccinated.

You also have states like Florida that are trying the opposite and trying to prevent businesses from asking for proof of vaccine. I'm not really sure what the goal is there, but it's certainly not helping us get on the other side of this pandemic.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Two days from now, it will be 2 weeks since my second dose. I shouldn't have to be locked in my home wearing 2 masks after that. If some people refuse to get the vaccine (who are otherwise eligible), that is their choice, but it's not my problem. Why should I miss family events, personal milestones, or properly breathing the air inside Kroger because of others' choices? (I don't think our Kroger enforces masks, but still.)

[Person Man]

Two days from now, it will be 2 weeks since my second dose. I shouldn't have to be locked in my home wearing 2 masks after that. If some people refuse to get the vaccine (who are otherwise eligible), that is their choice, but it's not my problem. Why should I miss family events, personal milestones, or properly breathing the air inside Kroger because of others' choices? (I don't think our Kroger enforces masks, but still.)

Which is fine, but it should be a way to enforce personal responsibility, especially when it’s based off of sheer ignorance. Maybe those who have refused a vaccine should not be prioritized for treatment if they become seriously ill.

[Inmate Trump]

Two days from now, it will be 2 weeks since my second dose. I shouldn't have to be locked in my home wearing 2 masks after that. If some people refuse to get the vaccine (who are otherwise eligible), that is their choice, but it's not my problem. Why should I miss family events, personal milestones, or properly breathing the air inside Kroger because of others' choices? (I don't think our Kroger enforces masks, but still.)

You shouldn't be stopped from visiting family, etc.  But I would still suggest mask usage in stores and whatnot.

For two reasons:

1. No vaccine is 100%.
2. Nobody else is going to know you've been vaccinated.  There are vulnerable people still worried who haven't been able to get the vaccine for whatever reason (there are still legit reasons as to why some people may not have gotten the vaccine yet).  You wearing a mask helps with their peace of mind, and since the vaccines are not 100% it helps to ensure both your safety and theirs.

So...continue masking for your own safety.  But also continue doing so for empathy purposes.

[politicallefty]

If you're arguing for exemptions for those that are vaccinated, how exactly do you keep track of that?

You don't do it at the individual level.

The way to do this is based on some evidence-informed benchmark for a region - most likely a state, but a metropolitan area or a collection of counties would also do. Something like: Once 80% of high-risk groups and 60% of all adults have been vaccinated, the area reopens as long as hospitalizations remain below a certain threshold. (Those numbers are just provided as examples, you can argue about where they should be.)

There might also be a condition to guarantee that every adult has had at least a couple of weeks of eligibility and open appointments during which they had the opportunity to be vaccinated.

Those seem to be reasonable benchmarks. I don't think we've hit them anywhere in this country yet. That's what I was getting at. Too many people want to jump right now. We're not there yet, but we can be if people act responsibly. And if people still want to mask up and maintain social distance, they should be allowed to do so.

Two days from now, it will be 2 weeks since my second dose. I shouldn't have to be locked in my home wearing 2 masks after that. If some people refuse to get the vaccine (who are otherwise eligible), that is their choice, but it's not my problem. Why should I miss family events, personal milestones, or properly breathing the air inside Kroger because of others' choices? (I don't think our Kroger enforces masks, but still.)

Assuming all or most others are vaccinated at those events, you shouldn't have to miss your family events or personal milestones. All we're asking is that you keep wearing your mask in public around strangers (like in grocery stores) and keep socially distant in stores (i.e. note the stickers and/or keep a few feet away from the next person in line). Am I the only person that doesn't view a trip to the grocery store as a significant social event that requires no mask and close social contact?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Grocery stores were one of the few forms of recreation we had around here.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Two days from now, it will be 2 weeks since my second dose. I shouldn't have to be locked in my home wearing 2 masks after that. If some people refuse to get the vaccine (who are otherwise eligible), that is their choice, but it's not my problem. Why should I miss family events, personal milestones, or properly breathing the air inside Kroger because of others' choices? (I don't think our Kroger enforces masks, but still.)

I got the J+J vaccine.  It's 70% effective.  That's pretty good, but I still don't want to go around exposing myself to the virus and risk long-term lung damage.

If I'm hanging around other vaccinated people, I think we can all be reasonably confident that none of us is going to give the other the virus.  You got your second Moderna shot?  Take that mask down and cough all over me, I couldn't care less.

But if you didn't get vaccinated, in my eyes, you're still just as much a threat as before.

And the problem is, most of the people walking around without masks are the same people who are going to refuse to get vaccinated -- idiot Trump supporters.  I wish they'd all just hurry up and get the virus already so their decision to refuse the vaccine would become irrelevant.  But until then, if I see someone not wearing a mask, I'm just going to assume they're an idiot who watched Tucker every night, doesn't believe in COVID, doesn't believe in masks, doesn't believe in the vaccine, and probably won't change their mind until they actually get COVID and spread it around to everyone they can.

So if you want people to think you're that guy, go right on ahead.  But you can see why the rest of us want to avoid being around that guy.

The only way to create a world where we don't have to wear masks anymore is to require vaccine passports for entry into bars, restaurants, businesses, etc.  make the Tucker fangirls sit out in the tents we've already set up for them.

[Horus]

Any polling on vaccine passports?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Any polling on vaccine passports?

The Economist/YouGov tracker has this on it this week:

"Would you support or oppose requiring "vaccine passports" that prove vaccination against COVID-19 in order to travel internationally?"

Adults (n=1500)

Support 52 (strongly 32)
Oppose 36 (strongly 28)

RV (n=1263)

Support 54 (strongly 34)
Oppose 36 (strongly 29)

[politicallefty]

I got the J+J vaccine.  It's 70% effective.  That's pretty good, but I still don't want to go around exposing myself to the virus and risk long-term lung damage.

If I'm hanging around other vaccinated people, I think we can all be reasonably confident that none of us is going to give the other the virus.  You got your second Moderna shot?  Take that mask down and cough all over me, I couldn't care less.

But if you didn't get vaccinated, in my eyes, you're still just as much a threat as before.

And the problem is, most of the people walking around without masks are the same people who are going to refuse to get vaccinated -- idiot Trump supporters.  I wish they'd all just hurry up and get the virus already so their decision to refuse the vaccine would become irrelevant.  But until then, if I see someone not wearing a mask, I'm just going to assume they're an idiot who watched Tucker every night, doesn't believe in COVID, doesn't believe in masks, doesn't believe in the vaccine, and probably won't change their mind until they actually get COVID and spread it around to everyone they can.

So if you want people to think you're that guy, go right on ahead.  But you can see why the rest of us want to avoid being around that guy.

The only way to create a world where we don't have to wear masks anymore is to require vaccine passports for entry into bars, restaurants, businesses, etc.  make the Tucker fangirls sit out in the tents we've already set up for them.

Unfortunately, there's a nasty biological experiment going on in Brazil. The guy running Brazil is straight-up f-cking dumb. Even Trump starts to look like a godsend by comparison. I want an indefinite absolute travel ban when it comes to Brazil. The virus couldn't ask for a better environment. I'm worried about that petri dish that could make the current vaccines useless.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Fauci’s guidance, however, is also irresponsible, and I would expect more from him and the CDC.

If we want people to be vaccinated, we need to remove the recommended restrictions for vaccinated people.  The refusal to do so really does make it -appear- like public health officials have little confidence in the vaccines, despite all the evidence that they are stupendously effective.

He's playing it safe. He also knows the way many people in this country have been acting.

The CDC has already said it's fine for people that are vaccinated to congregate with others that are also vaccinated. I don't see the issue there. As for in public, everyone has to abide by the same regulations or the whole system breaks down. Wearing a mask and staying socially distant while at the grocery store is one of the easiest things you can do. If you're arguing for exemptions for those that are vaccinated, how exactly do you keep track of that? There's already a mass hysteria on the right over things like vaccine passports (because it's apparently necessary to keep a COVID vaccine top secret?).

I agree, it is very easy to do. Yet we've got folks in here practically saying "f*** the masks, I don't have to wear them anymore if I'm vaccinated".

[It’s so Joever]

Two days from now, it will be 2 weeks since my second dose. I shouldn't have to be locked in my home wearing 2 masks after that. If some people refuse to get the vaccine (who are otherwise eligible), that is their choice, but it's not my problem. Why should I miss family events, personal milestones, or properly breathing the air inside Kroger because of others' choices? (I don't think our Kroger enforces masks, but still.)

Pray, tell me at what point in time this past year have you been forced under house arrest while double masked?

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Fauci’s guidance, however, is also irresponsible, and I would expect more from him and the CDC.

If we want people to be vaccinated, we need to remove the recommended restrictions for vaccinated people.  The refusal to do so really does make it -appear- like public health officials have little confidence in the vaccines, despite all the evidence that they are stupendously effective.

He's playing it safe. He also knows the way many people in this country have been acting.

The CDC has already said it's fine for people that are vaccinated to congregate with others that are also vaccinated. I don't see the issue there. As for in public, everyone has to abide by the same regulations or the whole system breaks down. Wearing a mask and staying socially distant while at the grocery store is one of the easiest things you can do. If you're arguing for exemptions for those that are vaccinated, how exactly do you keep track of that? There's already a mass hysteria on the right over things like vaccine passports (because it's apparently necessary to keep a COVID vaccine top secret?).

I agree, it is very easy to do. Yet we've got folks in here practically saying "f*** the masks, I don't have to wear them anymore if I'm vaccinated".

Wearing a mask is generally only an inconvenience, but we still can't go to concerts or sporting events or pools or even many restaurants.  Why shouldn't these things be able to open up for vaccinated customers?

[GeneralMacArthur]

Fauci’s guidance, however, is also irresponsible, and I would expect more from him and the CDC.

If we want people to be vaccinated, we need to remove the recommended restrictions for vaccinated people.  The refusal to do so really does make it -appear- like public health officials have little confidence in the vaccines, despite all the evidence that they are stupendously effective.

He's playing it safe. He also knows the way many people in this country have been acting.

The CDC has already said it's fine for people that are vaccinated to congregate with others that are also vaccinated. I don't see the issue there. As for in public, everyone has to abide by the same regulations or the whole system breaks down. Wearing a mask and staying socially distant while at the grocery store is one of the easiest things you can do. If you're arguing for exemptions for those that are vaccinated, how exactly do you keep track of that? There's already a mass hysteria on the right over things like vaccine passports (because it's apparently necessary to keep a COVID vaccine top secret?).

I agree, it is very easy to do. Yet we've got folks in here practically saying "f*** the masks, I don't have to wear them anymore if I'm vaccinated".

Wearing a mask is generally only an inconvenience, but we still can't go to concerts or sporting events or pools or even many restaurants.  Why shouldn't these things be able to open up for vaccinated customers?

I'd love it if we could have businesses like swimming pools where you have to show your vaccination card to get in, with fraudulent vaccination cards being a felony.

Unfortunately, everyone who's too stupid to get a vaccination is going to be against that, and even some people who got the vaccine still want to go swimming with the unvaccinated and risk getting the virus (albeit a much lower risk).

So, we're just going to have to wait until all the anti-vaxx people reach herd immunity... that or they all die.

Hopefully this all serves to magnify the damage that scientific disinformation, championed by the anti-vaxx community, is doing to America.  And hopefully it spurs the passing of more punitive discriminatory laws against these imbeciles.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3695

In this survey, conducted before federal health officials called for a pause on the Johnson & Johnson vaccine, more than one-quarter of Americans (27 percent) say they do not plan to get the COVID-19 vaccine. Roughly two-thirds (68 percent) say they have either already been vaccinated or plan to get a COVID-19 vaccine.

Republicans show the most hesitancy out of all listed groups toward getting a COVID-19 vaccine with 45 percent saying they do not plan to receive one, and 50 percent saying they've either gotten one already or plan to get one.

"About one-quarter of American adults already aren't planning on getting a COVID-19 vaccine - but will the J&J vaccine announcement increase that number? Only time will tell," added Malloy.

Americans are concerned 57 - 41 percent about another surge in COVID-19 cases, and say 53 - 45 percent that all states should have a mandatory mask order in place.

A large majority of Americans (65 percent) say that it is safe for students to attend elementary, middle, or high schools in person, while 29 percent say it is unsafe.

On whether they would feel safe or unsafe in particular situations, Americans say:

• 52 - 47 percent that they would feel safe dining indoors at restaurants operating at full capacity;
• 51 - 46 percent that they would feel unsafe getting on an airplane in which all of the seats are occupied;
• 56 - 41 percent that they would feel unsafe going to a large sports or entertainment event operating at full capacity.

Just under half of Americans (49 percent) say that they think that a credential or vaccine passport to prove an individual has been vaccinated is a good idea, while 45 percent say it is a bad idea.

Fifty percent of Americans oppose businesses requiring their employees to receive a COVID-19 vaccine, while 45 percent support the idea. Americans are split on whether or not universities should require their students to receive a COVID-19 vaccine, with 49 percent supporting it and 48 percent opposing it.

Looking back over the past year, three-quarters of Americans (75 percent) say they think that while some of the deaths from COVID-19 were inevitable, many could have been avoided. Only 17 percent say the number of COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. over the past year was inevitable.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

I got the J+J vaccine.  It's 70% effective.  That's pretty good, but I still don't want to go around exposing myself to the virus and risk long-term lung damage.

What do you think is the chance for you (healthy & young?) to get risk long-term lung damage? Even without being vaccinated it is quite low. And my understanding it's mostly those who needs to be hospitalized who risks to get it (and other "long-term" effects of Covid). The effectiveness against hospitalization caused by Covid-19 is around 95%, and probably even higher for young and healthy.

IMHO, there is no reasons health wise for a healthy young people to not get back to normal life. The government should though not make exceptions for vaccinated - business absolutely can, though. Government/states should though give a data-driven roadmap to gradually lift restrictions. Everyone expects it, so why not saying it loud?


Here is from UK (from 22 Feb!!)
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/prime-minister-sets-out-roadmap-to-cautiously-ease-lockdown-restrictions

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

Step 2, no earlier than 12 April:

• Non-essential retail, personal care premises, such as hairdressers and nail salons, and public buildings, such as libraries and community centres, will reopen.
• Most outdoor attractions and settings, including zoos, and theme parks, will also reopen although wider social contact rules will apply in these settings to prevent indoor mixing between different households. Drive-in cinemas and drive-in performances will also be permitted.
• Indoor leisure facilities, such as gyms and swimming pools, will also reopen - but only for use by people on their own or with their household.
• Hospitality venues can serve people outdoors only. There will be no need for customers to order a substantial meal with alcohol, and no curfew - although customers must order, eat and drink while seated.
• Self-contained accommodation, such as holiday lets, where indoor facilities are not shared with other households, can also reopen.
• Funerals can continue with up to 30 people, and the numbers able to attend weddings, receptions and commemorative events such as wakes will rise to 15 (from 6).

Step 3, no earlier than 17 May:

• Outdoors, most social contact rules will be lifted - although gatherings of over 30 people will remain illegal.
• Outdoor performances such as outdoor cinemas, outdoor theatres and outdoor cinemas can reopen.. Indoors, the rule of 6 or 2 households will apply - although we will keep under review whether it is safe to increase this.
• Indoor hospitality, entertainment venues such as cinemas and soft play areas, the rest of the accommodation sector, and indoor adult group sports and exercise classes will also reopen.
• Larger performances and sporting events in indoor venues with a capacity of 1,000 people or half-full (whichever is lower) will also be allowed, as will those in outdoor venues with a capacity of 4000 people or half-full (whichever is lower).
• In the largest outdoor seated venues where crowds can spread out, up to 10,000 people will be able to attend (or a quarter-full, whichever is lower).
• Up to 30 people will be able to attend weddings, receptions and wakes, as well as funerals. Other life events that will be permitted include bar mitzvahs and christenings.

Step 4, no earlier than 21 June:

• It is hoped all legal limits on social contact can be removed.
• We hope to reopen nightclubs, and lift restrictions on large events and performances that apply in Step 3.
• This will also guide decisions on whether all limits can be removed on weddings and other life events.

Not only markets hates uncertainty...

[Zaybay]

First Poll:

https://twitter.com/benwakana46/status/1382436908689657867?s=20

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

NyT re:J&J

An advisory committee for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention met on Wednesday to discuss the decision made on Tuesday to pause use of the Johnson & Johnson Covid-19 vaccine because of its possible link to extremely rare blood clots. After a robust afternoon discussion, the panel decided they needed more time to assess the data and risks, and would not vote on a recommendation until they meet again in a week or 10 days.

[jamestroll]

So now the goal posts have been moved to demanding vaccines with 100% efficacy and zero side effects?

So now it seems Johnson and Johnson will be permanently pulled off the market. What is next? Pulling Pfizer and Moderna off the market as they aren't 100% efficacy??

[jamestroll]

Fauci’s guidance, however, is also irresponsible, and I would expect more from him and the CDC.

If we want people to be vaccinated, we need to remove the recommended restrictions for vaccinated people.  The refusal to do so really does make it -appear- like public health officials have little confidence in the vaccines, despite all the evidence that they are stupendously effective.

He's playing it safe. He also knows the way many people in this country have been acting.

The CDC has already said it's fine for people that are vaccinated to congregate with others that are also vaccinated. I don't see the issue there. As for in public, everyone has to abide by the same regulations or the whole system breaks down. Wearing a mask and staying socially distant while at the grocery store is one of the easiest things you can do. If you're arguing for exemptions for those that are vaccinated, how exactly do you keep track of that? There's already a mass hysteria on the right over things like vaccine passports (because it's apparently necessary to keep a COVID vaccine top secret?).

I agree, it is very easy to do. Yet we've got folks in here practically saying "f*** the masks, I don't have to wear them anymore if I'm vaccinated".

Wearing a mask is generally only an inconvenience, but we still can't go to concerts or sporting events or pools or even many restaurants.  Why shouldn't these things be able to open up for vaccinated customers?

I'd love it if we could have businesses like swimming pools where you have to show your vaccination card to get in, with fraudulent vaccination cards being a felony.

Unfortunately, everyone who's too stupid to get a vaccination is going to be against that, and even some people who got the vaccine still want to go swimming with the unvaccinated and risk getting the virus (albeit a much lower risk).

So, we're just going to have to wait until all the anti-vaxx people reach herd immunity... that or they all die.

Hopefully this all serves to magnify the damage that scientific disinformation, championed by the anti-vaxx community, is doing to America.  And hopefully it spurs the passing of more punitive discriminatory laws against these imbeciles.

uhh we will be waiting for years. No thank you.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

So now it seems Johnson and Johnson will be permanently pulled off the market. What is next? Pulling Pfizer and Moderna off the market as they aren't 100% efficacy??

Patience, jimmie.  I know you've been especially and rightfully anxious, but Dr. Fauci has explicitly stated that it's a pause, not a cancellation.