COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[Asta]

Getting my first Pfizer dose on Friday. It might sound odd, but quite a number of people around me reported feeling sicker than media have made it seem. Some took more than a day or two to recover. Hearing these kinds of stories get me nervous, admittedly.

I've had both Pfizer shots and they weren't bad (YMMV, of course).  The first one just made sleepy starting about 3 hours later, lasting the rest of the afternoon.  The second one made me tired and achy the next day, but it wasn't nearly as bad as a case of the flu.  I was fine the day after that except for a mildly sore arm that lasted a few more days.

That's encouraging to hear, GM. Thanks for sharing that!

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

Getting my first Pfizer dose on Friday. It might sound odd, but quite a number of people around me reported feeling sicker than media have made it seem. Some took more than a day or two to recover. Hearing these kinds of stories get me nervous, admittedly.

I've had both Pfizer shots and they weren't bad (YMMV, of course).  The first one just made sleepy starting about 3 hours later, lasting the rest of the afternoon.  The second one made me tired and achy the next day, but it wasn't nearly as bad as a case of the flu.  I was fine the day after that except for a mildly sore arm that lasted a few more days.

My symptoms were similar, except I was also feverish and experiencing chills 12-24 hours after my 2nd shot.


This news is probably a few days old, but I don't think it was ever mentioned here.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/michigan-hospitals-are-preparing-for-latest-covid-spike-to-be-worse-than-april-2020/ar-BB1fCkZo?

But the key difference between Michigan's latest COVID spike and previous surges is that the U.K. variant B.1.1.7 has become the dominant strain among patients—a change that has also resulted in a vastly different patient profile.

"Michigan is number one in the country, unfortunately, for a lot of COVID categories right now, and one of them is the number of identified B.1.1.7 cases," Dr. Liam Sullivan, an infectious disease physician at Spectrum Health, told Newsweek.

Since B.1.1.7 was first identified, it has been proven to be more transmissible than all previous coronavirus strains. And while more than 3.38 million vaccines have been administered to more than 41 percent of Michigan's population, vaccine eligibility in the state only expanded to include those over age 16 last month, leaving many young people vulnerable to infection. It's created what Sullivan called "the perfect storm."

"Unfortunately, what's happened in Michigan is we've let our guard down and this strain is taking full advantage of that situation. It's sort of a perfect storm," he said. "You've got things opening up, people letting their guard down from COVID fatigue, hope about the vaccination—thinking that the vaccine is going to provide herd immunity a lot faster than it's going to provide herd immunity—and then you got this strain circulating and I think it's a perfect storm."

"We're seeing more severe disease in younger adults....They're getting hospitalized at rates that are 60 to maybe 100 percent higher than they did during our fall/winter wave, so that changes the character of who you see in the hospital—a lot more young folks who are really sick. Our ICU is of a younger population now than it was in the winter," Parekh told Newsweek.

While hospitalizations are reaching April 2020 levels, the patients filling those same beds are decades younger than those being treated a year ago.

Earlier this week, Michigan hit a record high for COVID-19 hospitalizations in children when 49 kids were hospitalized on Monday with either confirmed or suspected cases of COVID-19.

"If you look at the statistics, the number of elementary school kids and middle school kids that have gotten sick with this virus has increased compared to previous [figures], and they are now transmitting the virus more than they did previously," Sullivan said. "Now, you have this younger age population, transmitting this virus more readily to other people who are more vulnerable to getting sick from this disease."

While younger people account for more of Michigan's hospitalizations, hospital officials say that the change in demographic is proof that the COVID vaccines work.

"We just looked at all of our admits recently, and out of all of them, the average was about 56 years old," Donaldson said. "It's really skewed down, which to me, indicates this vaccine is working because that older population, for the most part, is protected."

Compared to the fall, the number of hospital admissions has increased in nearly every age group up to 59, but when looking at data for individuals 60 and above, they've either flatlined or begun declining compared to the state's last COVID surge.

"There's not as much virus spread going on amongst [the older age group] and that's probably largely reflective of the fact that a lot of them have been vaccinated," Sullivan said. "They're being protected, and therefore, we're not seeing hospitalizations in them as much, which is good, because no matter how you cut it, the number one risk factor for hospitalization and death from COVID-19 is age."

[politicallefty]

I don't think it'll matter in a year. The virus could mutate into something like a highly infectious strain of the original SARS virus and many states would probably do nothing. It could start killing 10k/day and many states would call it a government conspiracy from the "Deep State". I have no confidence in the American people anymore. People are just plain stupid and want to bitch and whine about everything. The fact that so many are already trying to rescind mask mandates says everything. It is quite literally the least you can do as an individual.

The truth is that I'd like to see capacity restrictions lifted for those that have been fully vaccinated. That would mean letting those that have been fully vaccinated into restaurants and letting them sit down without masks. I don't see any reason to lift mask mandates where they're not in the way. In a restaurant full of vaccinated people? Fine, let's drop the masks. In a grocery store with many people coming and going? What is the harm of wearing a mask?

So you're saying the mask mandate should become permanent?

Not at all. What I am arguing for is that we slowly unwind the restrictions in place. I'm saying that the mask mandate (along with social distancing in public places, particularly like being in line in stores) is the least you can do. It's not a massive inconvenience in a store, hardly the same as not being able to go to restaurants or movie theatres. It's about minimizing risk as well. As I said above, I would start by opening up restaurants to full capacity, but only allow people that have been fully vaccinated (that would mean two weeks after their second shot). Some states are already trying to prohibit that from happening. But overall, I'm just saying we need to move step by step in lowering restrictions. It should not be all at once. Requiring masks in the grocery store is of absolute minimal inconvenience and should be among the last to be removed.

As I've said before, while I don't think everything we've done to get through this pandemic should be made permanent, we can learn some positive lessons. I think that could and should include voluntary masking when one feels sick (or wants to avoid getting sick) during cold and flu season and feels the need to be in public. Many Asians countries already do this. It's not a big deal. As for being mandatory? No, not unless the particular pathogen is sufficiently severe or fatal. But masking up to avoid spreading illness should be normalized throughout the Western world.

I certainly think that it's selfish for people to stop wearing a mask just because they've been vaccinated. I think we should continue to don them, but only until we've reached an adequate vaccination rate. I do not want this to become permanent, and I certainly hope that we still won't be wearing them next year.

I won't repeat what I said above about voluntary masking post-pandemic, but I agree with you here. I think the key is reaching a certain vaccination level among the adult population, which I would say is probably in the 70-80% range (at least one dose). I am concerned about the level of vaccine hesitancy, although we have managed to vaccinate over 81% of seniors with at least their first dose. I imagine we're soon going to have a significant surplus of vaccine once the vast majority of willing adults are fully vaccinated. I'm hoping that will coincide with lowering the minimum age below 16, which would help cover many K-12 students before the new school year starts.

As for masking outside, I haven't done that from the start of the pandemic so long as I'm not around anyone. I don't live in a dense major city where you're constantly bumping into people when you're outside though. The suburbs are a bit different in that respect. If I'm walking outside and approaching a busier area, I'll pull up the mask that I have fully lowered under my chin (personally, I find it easier to keep it around my ears and just lowered when walking outside by myself). As for when going inside to a store or whatnot, I put my mask on before I get out of the car.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 4/21 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE:What's the overall change in the total?

Brackets []: These represent the total change for the day, including backlogged reports, if any.

• These numbers are inflated relative to the actual reports for the day, so they are not used to calculate the comparative percentage shifts.

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4/11 (Last Sunday Holiday): <Sunday>

• Cases: 31,918,591 (+48,611 | ΔW Change: ↑27.50% | Σ Increase: ↑0.15%)
• Deaths: 575,829 (+293 | ΔW Change: ↑5.40% | Σ Increase: ↑0.04%)

4/12: <M>

• Cases: 31,990,143 (+56,522 [+71,552] | ΔW Change: ↑12.31% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)
• Deaths: 576,298 (+469 | ΔW Change: ↑11.67% | Σ Increase: ↑0.08%)

4/13: <T>

• Cases: 32,070,784 (+77,720 [+80,641] | ΔW Change: ↑24.79% | Σ Increase: ↑0.25%)
• Deaths: 577,179 (+819 [+881] | ΔW Change: ↓9.60% | Σ Increase: ↑0.15%)

4/14: <W>

• Cases: 32,149,223 (+78,439 | ΔW Change: ↑2.13% | Σ Increase: ↑0.24%)
• Deaths: 578,092 (+913 | ΔW Change: ↑4.58% | Σ Increase: ↑0.16%)

4/15: <Þ>

• Cases: 32,224,139 (+74,916 | ΔW Change: ↓0.36% | Σ Increase: ↑0.23%)
• Deaths: 578,993 (+901 | ΔW Change: ↑3.33% | Σ Increase: ↑0.16%)

4/16: <F>

• Cases: 32,305,912 (+81,773 | ΔW Change: ↓4.21% | Σ Increase: ↑0.25%)
• Deaths: 579,942 (+887 [+949] | ΔW Change: ↓9.86% | Σ Increase: ↑0.16%)

4/17: <S>

• Cases: 32,372,119 (+63,581 [+66,207] | ΔW Change: ↓5.40% | Σ Increase: ↑0.20%)
• Deaths: 580,756 (+738 [+814] | ΔW Change: ↓1.99% | Σ Increase: ↑0.14%)

4/18: <Sunday>

• Cases: 32,404,454 (+32,335 | ΔW Change: ↓33.48% | Σ Increase: ↑0.10%)
• Deaths: 581,061 (+305 | ΔW Change: ↑4.10% | Σ Increase: ↑0.05%)

4/19: <M>

• Cases: 32,475,043 (+51,560 [+70,589] | ΔW Change: ↓8.78% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)
• Deaths: 581,542 (+481 | ΔW Change: ↑2.56% | Σ Increase: ↑0.08%)

4/20 (Yesterday): <T>

• Cases: 32,536,470 (+61,427 | ΔW Change: ↓20.96% | Σ Increase: ↑0.19%)
• Deaths: 582,456 (+914 | ΔW Change: ↑11.60% | Σ Increase: ↑0.16%)

4/21 (Today): <W>

• Cases: 32,602,051 (+65,581 | ΔW Change: ↓16.39% | Σ Increase: ↑0.20%)
• Deaths: 583,330 (+874 | ΔW Change: ↓4.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.15%)

[emailking]

India's cases are exploding. Over 300,000 cases today. They only broke 100,000 for the first time a few weeks ago.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Getting my first Pfizer dose on Friday. It might sound odd, but quite a number of people around me reported feeling sicker than media have made it seem. Some took more than a day or two to recover. Hearing these kinds of stories get me nervous, admittedly.

Are they younger [and/or females] then the average vaccinated? Because the younger people and females generally has better immune system then elder and males.

If anything, you should worry more (not really), if you have no symptoms at all, than more severe-than-average.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1385199695958614018

Florida of DeSantis follows the science!

[Asta]

Getting my first Pfizer dose on Friday. It might sound odd, but quite a number of people around me reported feeling sicker than media have made it seem. Some took more than a day or two to recover. Hearing these kinds of stories get me nervous, admittedly.

Are they younger [and/or females] then the average vaccinated? Because the younger people and females generally has better immune system then elder and males.

If anything, you should worry more (not really), if you have no symptoms at all, than more severe-than-average.

Roughly even number of males and females. They're in their 20's and 30's so they're on the younger side.

So are you implying that better immune system means higher chance of side effects? If so, that aligns with what I've read that women are more likely to feel effects than men are.

[Gass3268]

Moderna knocked me and my wife out for about a day starting about 12 hours after the stab. I had chills, a mild fever, minor nausea, and just general exhaustion. Yet by around 36 hours afterwards I felt fine.

[Not Me, Us]

Moderna knocked me and my wife out for about a day starting about 12 hours after the stab. I had chills, a mild fever, minor nausea, and just general exhaustion. Yet by around 36 hours afterwards I felt fine.

First dose or second?

[Adam Griffin]

A simplistic map that I think is still worth examining at this point in the rollout. This shows the percentage-point difference between fully vaccinated and one-dose populations (the lighter the red, the larger the gap).

In my opinion (at least in most states' situations), a large & growing gap between the 2 groups is still good, as this indicates there is still high demand for vaccination and lots of people are continuing to get their first shots. However, in select Deep South and Upper Midwest/Plains states, you're seeing an ever-shrinking gap (which implies a lot of the vaccines delivered were to seniors and that there is minimal interest among the non-senior crowd).

The second map simply shows whether the gap is greater than the national average (14 points; 40% vs 26%), with green states having a larger than average gap, red a smaller than average, and white being on par with the national average. With the exception of dutiful, conformist Utah, it's basically a presidential map (with MN/WI/MI/AZ/GA all within 1 point of the vaccine gap national average). WA, OR, NY & FL all being on par with the average isn't surprising either, given the former two didn't open vaccination to all until just a few days ago & NY/FL not opening until April (plus large states by definition disproportionately affect any national average).



And for fun, a 2024 EC map (lightest shades have gaps within 2 points of the national average; medium between 2-4 points; darkest <4 points). All of the ties in the previous map break for the appropriate party with the exception of WA (missed the cutoff by 0.3 points).

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Getting my first Pfizer dose on Friday. It might sound odd, but quite a number of people around me reported feeling sicker than media have made it seem. Some took more than a day or two to recover. Hearing these kinds of stories get me nervous, admittedly.

Are they younger [and/or females] then the average vaccinated? Because the younger people and females generally has better immune system then elder and males.

If anything, you should worry more (not really), if you have no symptoms at all, than more severe-than-average.

Roughly even number of males and females. They're in their 20's and 30's so they're on the younger side.

So are you implying that better immune system means higher chance of side effects? If so, that aligns with what I've read that women are more likely to feel effects than men are.

That's what the nurse said to me, but I don't know if it's really that simple. And on individual level, the noise should be high.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/if-you-dont-have-covid-vaccine-side-effects-are-you-still-protected/

That is why antibodies do not tell the whole story of how well an immune system is protected. For a preprint study recently posted online and not yet evaluated by outside experts, Wherry and his colleagues measured antibody and B cell levels in blood samples from 44 people receiving either the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine, taken at various times over the course of vaccination. The researchers primarily compared vaccine protection in individuals who had recovered from COVID-19 with those who had never been infected. They also found, however, that people who reported systemic side effects had slightly higher levels of antibodies but not higher levels of B cells. The contrast suggests that while these individuals may have mounted a stronger inflammatory response, they were not necessarily better protected against the coronavirus in the long run, Wherry says.

Many people will feel more side effects after the second shot of a two-dose COVID-19 vaccine, providing some reassurance. That shot tends to cause more side effects because the first dose primed the body for it, Shresta says. After the first exposure, the body accumulates a finite pool of memory B cells. With the second dose, she says, “we want to expand that population for later on, so upon real infection, the immune response will be faster, bigger and better.”

Wherry says that second shot may produce bigger side effects in some people because those memory B cells have already been established in response to the first exposure. “The inflammation quickly shifts [B cells] over to these antibody-producing factories,” he adds.

While researchers do not fully understand why only some people have side effects from COVID-19 vaccines, epidemiological data suggest some trends. “Women tend to have more vigorous immune responses than males, and young people tend to respond more than the elderly population,” Shresta says.

And the elderly as a whole report fewer side effects than younger people do, but that could have more to do with the way the immune system ages rather than how well the available COVID-19 vaccines work. “The efficacy in the elderly is great,” Wherry says. “It reflects that these are really good vaccines [that produce] antibody levels that are 100-fold to 1,000-fold more than you need. So even in the elderly, if you lose five- or 10-fold [of that antibody level], it’s like a tree falling in the forest; it doesn’t really matter.”

[GeneralMacArthur]

Girlfriend got Pfizer II yesterday morning, had a mild fever in the evening but slept it off and was fine.

I got J+J last week, had a moderate fever and night chills so I couldn't sleep, but was fine by mid-morning.

Just get your shot in the morning, drink a lot of water throughout the day, and pop a tylenol before bed.

[President Johnson]

The Biden Administration got it done ahead of schedule. Actually didn't expect this when he made the promise of 100 million last year.

https://twitter.com/POTUS/status/1385269414564597764

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

The Biden Administration got it done ahead of schedule. Actually didn't expect this when he made the promise of 100 million last year.

https://twitter.com/POTUS/status/1385269414564597764

Lower the expectations. Do what was in fact expected. Profit (if MSM plays along as they did) They are as responsible for that as Trump was in April 2017...

[GP270watch]

 Biden has done a fantastic job with the vaccine rollout. No self created drama, holding people accountable when they mess-up, and giving the credit to the many partners and the American people. What more could you ask for from a President?

[Inmate Trump]

Just found out my work is ending all covid guidelines in mid May.

No masks.

No temperature checks.

No social distancing.

Visitors allowed.


I’m glad I got the vaccine in January and February but this makes me extremely worried.  I work in a small space with about ten other people for 12 hours.  Almost all of my coworkers are morons and most didn’t get the vaccine and say they never will.

[Roll Roons]

Just found out my work is ending all covid guidelines in mid May.

No masks.

No temperature checks.

No social distancing.

Visitors allowed.


I’m glad I got the vaccine in January and February but this makes me extremely worried.  I work in a small space with about ten other people for 12 hours.  Almost all of my coworkers are morons and most didn’t get the vaccine and say they never will.

Who cares? Since you got it, you'll be fine.

[Horus]

Just found out my work is ending all covid guidelines in mid May.

No masks.

No temperature checks.

No social distancing.

Visitors allowed.


I’m glad I got the vaccine in January and February but this makes me extremely worried.  I work in a small space with about ten other people for 12 hours.  Almost all of my coworkers are morons and most didn’t get the vaccine and say they never will.

Well if no one got vaccinated there might be some positions open soon. Look at this as an opportunity for a promotion.

[pppolitics]

Young people don't get very sick from COVID, my ***.

Unlike some of my cohorts, I took every precaution (wearing masks, social distancing when possible) and still got seriously ill.

Long story short, I am attending college and am renting a room.

My landlord went to Brazil to attend the funeral of his brother who, you guessed it, died from COVID.

The brother is a passionate Bolsonaro supporter who refuses to wear mask, do social distancing, or take any precaution.

Anyway, my landlord came back from Brazil and gave me COVID.

The day after I was discharged from the hospital, the vaccine became available to everyone 16 and over.

[lfromnj]

Anyway I assume within a month once our shots per day starts going down, we will be able to start distributing our excess vaccine supply to the rest of the world.

[Inmate Trump]

Just found out my work is ending all covid guidelines in mid May.

No masks.

No temperature checks.

No social distancing.

Visitors allowed.


I’m glad I got the vaccine in January and February but this makes me extremely worried.  I work in a small space with about ten other people for 12 hours.  Almost all of my coworkers are morons and most didn’t get the vaccine and say they never will.

Who cares? Since you got it, you'll be fine.

Yea but no.  Not only is it still possible for me to contract covid (though my chances are lessened), I do still care about my coworkers even those who didn’t get vaccinated.

But again—I can still get it, especially with the mutations.

[ProudModerate2]

Video: Ted Nugent contracts Covid-19 after saying 'it's not a real pandemic.'

Click here to watch ... https://us.cnn.com/videos/us/2021/04/21/ted-nugent-covid-orig-jk.cnn

This idiot, even after getting the virus, talks to his followers/audience and downplays the virus, vaccine, sickness dangers, etc.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Anyway I assume within a month once our shots per day starts going down, we will be able to start distributing our excess vaccine supply to the rest of the world.

We should immediately share the millions of doses of AstraZeneca vaccine the U.S. is sitting on.  They're not going to be used here, and they could do a world of good for other countries.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Girlfriend got Pfizer II yesterday morning, had a mild fever in the evening but slept it off and was fine.

I got J+J last week, had a moderate fever and night chills so I couldn't sleep, but was fine by mid-morning.

Just get your shot in the morning, drink a lot of water throughout the day, and pop a tylenol before bed.

Noted. I got my first Moderna shot just a few hours ago. I didn't expect the arm pain to occur this fast, but I can deal with it if it means that I don't have to be as concerned about the coronavirus.