COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

This is worrying

The NYP is reporting that a 52 year old man is in the icu with covid19 35 DAYS after getting the JJ vaccine


Johnson and Johnson trial studies didn’t have a SINGLE person hospitalized with covid after 28 days

Looks like the JJ study was wrong or faulty

https://t.co/8oiG7sIC5U?amp=1

How in the world does this suggest that the JJ study was faulty??

Any clinical trial is going to have a smaller sample size by several orders of magnitude compared to the millions of people who have actually received this vaccine.  

The fact that effects are observed among millions in the general population that were not observed among the few thousands in the trial is not surprising at all.

No vaccine is claiming to be 100.000000% effective at anything.

[Calthrina950]

This is worrying

The NYP is reporting that a 52 year old man is in the icu with covid19 35 DAYS after getting the JJ vaccine


Johnson and Johnson trial studies didn’t have a SINGLE person hospitalized with covid after 28 days

Looks like the JJ study was wrong or faulty

https://t.co/8oiG7sIC5U?amp=1

The problems with the Johnson and Johnson vaccine continue to build. In addition to this, the supply of the vaccine is expected to decline by nearly 90% this week due to the contamination issues which led to 15 million doses being discarded. Even putting aside the fact that its availability will decline, I think that more people will avoid Johnson and Johnson if they have the ability to do so. Pfizer, which has done exceptionally well and is already the most common vaccine, will be even more preferred after this.

[emailking]

Let's be honest, nobody is going to be convinced that the other side is right, so what's the point.

You could potentially convince me if you can explain to me how lockdowns cause cases or lack of lockdowns reduce cases, which is what you seem to be implying. You ignored my post though. :shrugs:

Let's put it this way. Long, national/state lockdowns (as against to shorter, targeted lockdowns) are probably much less important in the long run than we previously thought. Meanwhile the drawbacks - economical and mental on adults, and educational and mental on kids - of such lockdowns are probably even more devastating that we thought.

Maybe but that seems like a different argument. I can process that logic, and maybe extended lockdowns are, in fact, bad. But I don't follow how lockdowns don't work to reduce cases.

[DINGO Joe]

While many Trump appointees are having trouble finding work in the real world, Dr. Redfield has landed on his uh feet or ass

https://twitter.com/KristenhCNN/status/1381625939940024326

[LabourJersey]

This is worrying

The NYP is reporting that a 52 year old man is in the icu with covid19 35 DAYS after getting the JJ vaccine


Johnson and Johnson trial studies didn’t have a SINGLE person hospitalized with covid after 28 days

Looks like the JJ study was wrong or faulty

https://t.co/8oiG7sIC5U?amp=1

How in the world does this suggest that the JJ study was faulty??

Any clinical trial is going to have a smaller sample size by several orders of magnitude compared to the millions of people who have actually received this vaccine.  

The fact that effects are observed among millions in the general population that were not observed among the few thousands in the trial is not surprising at all.

No vaccine is claiming to be 100.000000% effective at anything.

Also how many millions of people have received the Johnson & Johnson vaccine by now?

One person out of millions getting hospitalized is actually a very good record. I think there's too many people out there who cannot or will not understand how to read these stories in the context of the gigantic scale the vaccination process is on.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/Quicktake/status/1381674358402383874

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

This is worrying

The NYP is reporting that a 52 year old man is in the icu with covid19 35 DAYS after getting the JJ vaccine


Johnson and Johnson trial studies didn’t have a SINGLE person hospitalized with covid after 28 days

Looks like the JJ study was wrong or faulty

https://t.co/8oiG7sIC5U?amp=1

Excuse me, Mr. marty, Sir, but, respectfully, Dr. marty, mind You, Good Professor, do the math, Good Sir!

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

We need to stop with the shutdown talk. 

The vulnerable population has had ample opportunity to get vaccinated at this point.  Why would you punish those who have done the responsible thing and gotten vaccinated and who should now be able to behave normally with almost no risk because a bunch of crazy people refuse to believe in science? 

Compulsory vaccination would be much less harmful than shutdowns and no one seems to be even willing to consider it.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/prchovanec/status/1381066539949043713

[Kamala's side hoe]

After age, COVID vulnerability is almost 100% about social class, not ethnic background (except maybe Native Americans without high school diplomas, though I suspect economic issues like lack of reliable utilities on reservations are driving that).  

I'm pretty sure most of the differences we see across racial groups are due to differences in average socioeconomic status and educational attainment. But there are still some interesting differences across racial groups, even after controlling for education.

1) Black Americans with post-secondary education have noticeably higher mortality rates than their White counterparts, while 2) Latinos have noticeably lower mortality rates than Whites and Blacks at every educational level. Meanwhile, 3) Asian/PI Americans' mortality rates resemble those of Latino Americans, but with drastically lower mortality rates at the Less-than-HS and postgraduate levels. (AIAN should be fairly obvious.)

https://www.apmresearchlab.org/covid/deaths-by-race#age

These stats aren't super meaningful for people under 50, but it's still interesting to look at. I wonder how much of the lower mortality rates among Latinos and Asians can be explained by older foreign-born Latinos/Asians being more likely to be family reunification immigrants who live with their children and grandchildren.

Age-adjusted mortality for Asians is slightly lower than for whites (but still much higher than non-age adjusted). There are probably significant disparities among different Asian groups- I've heard Filipinos have particularly high mortality rates.

[Inmate Trump]

We need to stop with the shutdown talk. 

The vulnerable population has had ample opportunity to get vaccinated at this point.  Why would you punish those who have done the responsible thing and gotten vaccinated and who should now be able to behave normally with almost no risk because a bunch of crazy people refuse to believe in science? 

Compulsory vaccination would be much less harmful than shutdowns and no one seems to be even willing to consider it.

I don't think mandatory vaccinations are a good idea, but I am in favor of incentives to those getting vaccinated and "discriminating" against those who are unwilling.

-If you want your child to attend public schools, the entire family should have to be vaccinated.
-To enter ANY place of business, you must present a vaccination card (likewise to operate any business).  *If you aren't vaccinated and need groceries, your only option is contact-less instacart and/or clicklist.
-To board a plane or boat must require proof of vaccination.
-To cross state lines must present a vaccination card.
-Jail sentences and/or hefty fines for anyone refusing to wear a mask while in public places...while the vaccination card allows you to go on about your day.

I'm all about allowing someone the freedom to choose between vaccination or not, and I'm also all about declining service/certain freedoms if you don't get vaccinated.

[Calthrina950]

We need to stop with the shutdown talk. 

The vulnerable population has had ample opportunity to get vaccinated at this point.  Why would you punish those who have done the responsible thing and gotten vaccinated and who should now be able to behave normally with almost no risk because a bunch of crazy people refuse to believe in science? 

Compulsory vaccination would be much less harmful than shutdowns and no one seems to be even willing to consider it.

I don't think mandatory vaccinations are a good idea, but I am in favor of incentives to those getting vaccinated and "discriminating" against those who are unwilling.

-If you want your child to attend public schools, the entire family should have to be vaccinated.
-To enter ANY place of business, you must present a vaccination card (likewise to operate any business).  *If you aren't vaccinated and need groceries, your only option is contact-less instacart and/or clicklist.
-To board a plane or boat must require proof of vaccination.
-To cross state lines must present a vaccination card.
-Jail sentences and/or hefty fines for anyone refusing to wear a mask while in public places...while the vaccination card allows you to go on about your day.

I'm all about allowing someone the freedom to choose between vaccination or not, and I'm also all about declining service/certain freedoms if you don't get vaccinated.

While I certainly don't object to colleges and businesses requiring their students and employees to be vaccinated, and I don't object to travel restrictions (at least international travel restrictions) being imposed on those who are unvaccinated, I think some of the suggestions you offer here are excessive. How are you going to stop people from crossing state lines, if they're on a road trip or traveling from their place of residence to their place of work and back (if such places happen to be in different states, as is the case for a not insubstantial number of people)? How would you justify preventing unvaccinated people from utilizing emergency or essential services? A vaccination mandate in my view would have to be carefully tailored, lest it not survive legal scrutiny and be struck down.

[jamestroll]

We need to stop with the shutdown talk. 

The vulnerable population has had ample opportunity to get vaccinated at this point.  Why would you punish those who have done the responsible thing and gotten vaccinated and who should now be able to behave normally with almost no risk because a bunch of crazy people refuse to believe in science? 

Compulsory vaccination would be much less harmful than shutdowns and no one seems to be even willing to consider it.

Problem is it seems that people on the online left do not ever want to return to normal. They want people to live locked down indefinitely.  If they want to live like that forever it is their choice. The general population should not be forced to live that way.

I am also disturbed about the movement for permanent online schooling.

[Lief 🗽]

Too early to talk about punitive measures for non-vacciners. I'm sure there's a pretty significant share of the population that wants the vaccine but not enough to jump through the website hurdles. A lot will change once you can literally just wander into a CVS and get a free shot.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/DavidJollyFL/status/1381741680903262212

This is sheer idiocy by DeSantis.  Cruising is one industry that needs to take every possible safeguard against the virus.

[Inmate Trump]

https://twitter.com/DavidJollyFL/status/1381741680903262212

This is sheer idiocy by DeSantis.  Cruising is one industry that needs to take every possible safeguard against the virus.

He’s a moron, and he is literally setting out to kill more people.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 4/12 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE:What's the overall change in the total?

Brackets []: These represent the total change for the day, including backlogged reports, if any.

• These numbers are inflated relative to the actual reports for the day, so they are not used to calculate the comparative percentage shifts.

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4/4 (Holiday): <Sunday>

• Cases: 31,420,331 (+38,126 | ΔW Change: ↓3.47% | Σ Increase: ↑0.12%)
• Deaths: 568,777 (+278 | ΔW Change: ↓38.90% | Σ Increase: ↑0.05%)

4/5: <M>

• Cases: 31,490,563 (+50,329 [+70,232] | ΔW Change: ↓15.71% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)
• Deaths: 569,197 (+420 | ΔW Change: ↓34.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.07%)

4/6: <T>

• Cases: 31,560,438 (+62,283 [+69,875] | ΔW Change: ↓1.69% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)
• Deaths: 570,260 (+906 [+1,063] | ΔW Change: ↓2.79% | Σ Increase: ↑0.19%)

4/7: <W>

• Cases: 31,637,243 (+76,805 | ΔW Change: ↑9.91% | Σ Increase: ↑0.24%)
• Deaths: 572,849 (+873 [+2,589] | ΔW Change: ↓21.91% | Σ Increase: ↑0.45%)

4/8: <Þ>

• Cases: 31,717,404 (+75,183 [+80,161] | ΔW Change: ↓3.97% | Σ Increase: ↑0.25%)
• Deaths: 573,856 (+872 [+1,007] | ΔW Change: ↓8.40% | Σ Increase: ↑0.18%)

4/9: <F>

• Cases: 31,802,772 (+85,368 | ΔW Change: ↑21.98% | Σ Increase: ↑0.27%)
• Deaths: 574,840 (+984 | ΔW Change: ↓1.50% | Σ Increase: ↑0.17%)

4/10: <S>

• Cases: 31,869,980 (+67,208 | ΔW Change: ↓0.60% | Σ Increase: ↑0.21%)
• Deaths: 575,593 (+753 | ΔW Change: ↓5.04% | Σ Increase: ↑0.13%)

4/11 (Yesterday-Last Sunday Holiday): <Sunday>

• Cases: 31,918,591 (+48,611 | ΔW Change: ↑27.50% | Σ Increase: ↑0.15%)
• Deaths: 575,829 (+293 | ΔW Change: ↑5.40% | Σ Increase: ↑0.04%)

4/12 (Today): <M>

• Cases: 31,990,143 (+56,522 [+71,552] | ΔW Change: ↑12.31% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)
• Deaths: 576,298 (+469 | ΔW Change: ↑11.67% | Σ Increase: ↑0.08%)

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

We need to stop with the shutdown talk.  

The vulnerable population has had ample opportunity to get vaccinated at this point.  Why would you punish those who have done the responsible thing and gotten vaccinated and who should now be able to behave normally with almost no risk because a bunch of crazy people refuse to believe in science?  

Compulsory vaccination would be much less harmful than shutdowns and no one seems to be even willing to consider it.

Problem is it seems that people on the online left do not ever want to return to normal. They want people to live locked down indefinitely.  If they want to live like that forever it is their choice. The general population should not be forced to live that way.

I am also disturbed about the movement for permanent online schooling.

The online left says a lot of things (Whoever the "online left" are)

[Former President tack50]

https://twitter.com/DavidJollyFL/status/1381741680903262212

This is sheer idiocy by DeSantis.  Cruising is one industry that needs to take every possible safeguard against the virus.

Can't companies just tell Desantis to go f* himself and ask for certificates no matter what?

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/DavidJollyFL/status/1381741680903262212

This is sheer idiocy by DeSantis.  Cruising is one industry that needs to take every possible safeguard against the virus.

He’s a moron, and he is literally setting out to kill more people.

It’s not like he’s going to use the National Guard to force people on to the boat, right? Biden would just nationalize them anyway.

[jamestroll]

https://twitter.com/AP/status/1381930449405153284

Oh so a few people getting blood clots is worse than getting covid? A few people getting blood clots is worse than indefinite unemployment and loss of learning? A few people getting blood clots is worse than hundreds of thousands of people dying from covid 19?

This is just more evidence that a largely vaccinated population is not the end goal. More proof that the government has no intention of wanting this pandemic to end. More proof this is all about control and not about public health.

[urutzizu]

Interesting. I wonder if this is less a specific Astrazeneca or J&J Issue and more an adenovirus problem then. The Sputnik using countries should be having this Issue too in that case, but considering the Governments involved they might not be reporting it/not have a adequate reporting system. IIRC one of the Chinese Vaccines should also be affected.

[Omega21]

https://twitter.com/AP/status/1381930449405153284

Oh so a few people getting blood clots is worse than getting covid? A few people getting blood clots is worse than indefinite unemployment and loss of learning? A few people getting blood clots is worse than hundreds of thousands of people dying from covid 19?

This is just more evidence that a largely vaccinated population is not the end goal. More proof that the government has no intention of wanting this pandemic to end. More proof this is all about control and not about public health.

Example: Blood clots sometimes occurred in a fairly young population vaccinated with AZ. Cases were reported even in 20-year-olds.

For a 20-year-old, the chance of dying from the virus is almost non-existent, i.e. extremely low. Thus any risk of a blood clot, which is a very serious, often life-threatening condition, is to be investigated thoroughly, as the virus it is supposed to protect against is very rarely life-threatening for very young people.

[jamestroll]

https://twitter.com/AP/status/1381930449405153284

Oh so a few people getting blood clots is worse than getting covid? A few people getting blood clots is worse than indefinite unemployment and loss of learning? A few people getting blood clots is worse than hundreds of thousands of people dying from covid 19?

This is just more evidence that a largely vaccinated population is not the end goal. More proof that the government has no intention of wanting this pandemic to end. More proof this is all about control and not about public health.

Example: Blood clots sometimes occurred in a fairly young population vaccinated with AZ. Cases were reported even in 20-year-olds.

For a 20-year-old, the chance of dying from the virus is almost non-existent, i.e. extremely low. Thus any risk of a blood clot, which is a very serious, often life-threatening condition, is to be investigated thoroughly, as the virus it is supposed to protect against is very rarely life-threatening for very young people.

The number of "blood clots" are so minimal compared to the deaths from covid-19 itself. It is not worth stopping usage of this vaccine.

[Mr. Illini]

The FDA better have some very serious concerns, given that this move will worsen vaccine hesitancy and slow down the amazing progress we’ve been making at getting folks vaccinated and moving back toward normal. I hope it isn’t being done lightly.