COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[pbrower2a]

Whoever designed these Covid Vaccination cards should be fired !

I can't even carry them in a wallet.

I agree that they should have made them the size of business cards that you can fit in your wallet.  What I do is I carry a copy of mine, printed on regular paper rather than cardstock so I can fold it and keep it in my wallet.

I used my smartphone to take a photo of mine.

I used my regular camera for a photo, but did so against the backdrop of the interior of a twelve-year-old car.  The context makes forgery difficult to make credible.

[pbrower2a]

May 16, 2021 Vaccination Update

Percentage of population fully vaccinated according to CDC

National Average: 37.1% (+0.4% from yesterday)

Image Link

CT: 48.2%
DE: 39.2%
DC: 39.7%
FL: 35.4%
HI: 43.1%
IN: 32.4%
LA: 29.5%
MD: 42.3%
MA: 46.7%
MS: 25.8%
NH: 55.7%
NJ: 44.2%
PR: 31.5%
RI: 46.4%
VT: 47.4%
WV: 32.8%

Some states are too small or oddly shaped to have numbers fit properly on them, so they're listed above


Updates

New Hampshire becomes the first U.S. state to report more than 50% of its population being fully vaccinated! (I guess some data backlog just got cleared)

Washington state surpasses the milestone of having 40% of its population fully vaccinated

Mississippi, GOD DAMN!

[pbrower2a]

600,000

At least it looks like that’ll be the last major milestone for a while.

A poll that I recently saw showed that 26% of white people and 43% of Republicans say that they intend to not get inoculated. That is of course an extreme overlap. This probably corresponds with the people of whom Donald Trump praised profusely:

"I love low-information voters"

People who vote with little information or who have fully given themselves to propaganda are generally not well-informed about such things as science, high culture, history, economics, or medicine and health, either.

I do not know how deadly the B117 variant is, but COVID-19 is now ravaging India -- and often killing the Best and Brightest in India over age 50. That destroys huge amounts of talent. I am not going to compare our "low-information" people to those distinguished people by any means. At that, though, death is the Great Equalizer, taking away the human qualities of generals and privates, tycoons and beggars, saints and criminals, and geniuses and idiots alike.   

[pbrower2a]

600,000

At least it looks like that’ll be the last major milestone for a while.

A poll that I recently saw showed that 26% of white people and 43% of Republicans say that they intend to not get inoculated. That is of course an extreme overlap. This probably corresponds with the people of whom Donald Trump praised profusely:

"I love low-information voters"

People who vote with little information or who have fully given themselves to propaganda are generally not well-informed about such things as science, high culture, history, economics, or medicine and health, either.

I do not know how deadly the B117 variant is, but COVID-19 is now ravaging India -- and often killing the Best and Brightest in India over age 50. That destroys huge amounts of talent. I am not going to compare our "low-information" people to those distinguished people by any means. At that, though, death is the Great Equalizer, taking away the human qualities of generals and privates, tycoons and beggars, saints and criminals, and geniuses and idiots alike.

I wonder what the human qualities of anti-vaxxers are...

Most mean well. They believe a pseudoscientific dogma and act accordingly. They still hurt themselves or their loved ones.

 

[pbrower2a]

Who can be certain that no novel, virulent variant of COVID-19 immune to current inoculations won't emerge? People failing to wear masks are potential incubators of  such a disease  -- should it occur.

[pbrower2a]

https://twitter.com/laurenpeikoff/status/1396790236953337856

That is optimistic, but not without warrant. The remote option is fine for disciplined students with attentive parents who have high standards for learning. For students who struggle at all, they need a teacher. Having been a substitute, I have found that 20% of the students get my attention... and they are the ones struggling. The others will do as they are told to do without problems; the 20%.... well, that is what a teacher is for. Maybe the lesson plan was imperfect, but I might be able to fine-tune it. I might motivate someone with some clever words.

Maybe you remember a commonplace assignment in junior-high English classes in which you are instructed to get a vocabulary word, find the meaning in the textbook's glossary, and then put the word into a sentence. If you are above-average in the class, then this exercise is deathly-boring. I suggest to any student who sees it that way and complains.... just get it over as efficiently as possible, and then you will get to do something more interesting.

I typically roamed through the classroom to see if students are doing the assignment. Words such as "That's fine!" or "Good work!" come easily from me when they are merited. If someone isn't doing the work or is struggling (which is more common in math) I try to find where the struggle is and try some fine points.

That is one way to get repeat assignments: have a normal day. To be sure, I am a rigid disciplinarian, but  I can usually get my way -- which keeps students from being sent to the principal's office on a disciplinary referral. Tell me that you do not work in that classroom or that you can make more money dealing drugs... then you have a problem. I value learning and hate drugs.     

[pbrower2a]

Michigan's state welcome center on Interstate 69 just north of the Indiana state line offers free tests for COVID-19 with a thirty-minute response.

What do you have to lose?

[pbrower2a]

New study on immunity; might last longer than expected. Still no coherent data on the question that needs more research as we gather more data over a longer period of time.

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1397902658871177216

I have heard medical personnel encouraged survivors of COVID-19 to get inoculated as the risks from the inoculation are far slighter than the disease itself. One year is far too short a time to predict whether the virus has the potential for a rebound (it is apparently not quite like HIV/AIDS which can become dormant before returning even more dangerously). Other infections leave the potential of later problems, as is the case with rheumatic fever leading to rheumatic heart disease. Early chickenpox can result in shingles 50+ years later.

So get vaccinated. What do you have to lose if you don't?

EVERYTHING!

Sorry about the shouting , but this time it is necessary.

[pbrower2a]

https://twitter.com/ashishkjha/status/1397909210868891655

Gjavascript:void(0);ood news is, most places seem to have at least 30% of the population fully vaccinated with the exception of much of the rural South and bands of the Great Plains.

People getting complacent or staying ignorant? That's where the infections and deaths are.

Mississippi, God Damn!

[pbrower2a]

https://twitter.com/ashishkjha/status/1397909210868891655

Good news is, most places seem to have at least 30% of the population fully vaccinated with the exception of much of the rural South and bands of the Great Plains.

People are still contracting COVID-19... and dying, Excess deaths are most likely coming from mostly the reactionary side of the political spectrum, and because our system now does a good job of expunging the deceased from voter roles, that might have some impact on some political races in some states.

[pbrower2a]

I got vaccinated as early as possible, exploiting the fact that I had just turned 65. Too many people around my age died, and too many people near me (this is a strongly-R area, and anti-mask sentiment correlates heavily with reactionary politics) weren't wearing masks. Because influenza and COVID-19 have some similarities as symptoms, I made sure that I got my flu vaccine as early as possible so that I would not have to get medical care for the flu that might expose me to COVID-10.

 

[pbrower2a]

If this would get black people to get COVID-19 vaccines, I would do it.

I would dress up in a Klan robe and tell black people that COVID-19 serves my dream of exterminating a large number of black people so that they can never vote. Right in front of a burning cross.

[pbrower2a]

If this would get black people to get COVID-19 vaccines, I would do it.

I would dress up in a Klan robe and tell black people that COVID-19 serves my dream of exterminating a large number of black people so that they can never vote. Right in front of a burning cross.

what

I usually agree with pbrower2a, but the post by him is very weird and disturbing.

I intend it to be disturbing. I have compared the deaths of American soldiers in war against Hitler and Tojo in scale to the deaths from COVID-19, too. Mass death through any source must appall us.

If that's what it takes... blacks live matter, and COVID-19 is a far greater risk than the KKK or police brutality. COVID-19 is an equal-opportunity... destroyer!  

[pbrower2a]

If this would get black people to get COVID-19 vaccines, I would do it.

I would dress up in a Klan robe and tell black people that COVID-19 serves my dream of exterminating a large number of black people so that they can never vote. Right in front of a burning cross.

what

I usually agree with pbrower2a, but the post by him is very weird and disturbing.

I intend it to be disturbing. I have compared the deaths of American soldiers in war against Hitler and Tojo in scale to the deaths from COVID-19, too. Mass death through any source must appall us.

If that's what it takes... blacks live matter, and COVID-19 is a far greater risk than the KKK or police brutality. COVID-19 is an equal-opportunity... destroyer!  

I agree with your logic now. COVID has disproportionately impacted African Americans and Hispanic Americans and shows no signs of slowing down in their communities. The best solution in my opinion is to maybe reinstitute permanent mask mandates and mandate the vaccine for all Americans (though the Supreme Court would easily strike down the latter option in a 5-4 decision with John Roberts joining the three liberal justices). 

I had thought that the people most likely to reject inoculations were people on the political Right. Anti-mask and anti-vaccine sentiment where I live comes largely from the reactionary, superstitious part of the white population.

I have been fully inoculated, and I still wear a mask to set an example. (I also have no desire to pull out my vaccination certificate any more than is necessary, which I might need to do if I were to cross the Canadian border at some time). In view of the rapid evolution of the virus  it is only a matter of time until some new strain immune to the inoculation will pop up, and without enough people being inoculated that disaster will emerge, also with mass death as a consequence.     

[pbrower2a]

Dumb! She claims that metal-containing molecules cause magnetism because of the metallic element.

Hemoglobin, the substance that carries oxygen to cells, contains iron atoms; it is in no way metallic.

[pbrower2a]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1404498489183137794?s=20

We had dreadful leadership. We had a President with a dismissive attitude toward humanity, someone who believes that Homo oeconomicus is a norm and that anything else is a pariah. Even to be of any interest at all, one must be something else. Life is more than reward and punishment in return for making others filthy-rich or even more filthy-rich. Donald Trump doesn't understand human nature except for animal-level drives. This said, I have known dogs and parrots much more human than Donald Trump.

Making the best of a bad situation is a needful knack, and we have the technology for video conference calls that can make     

[pbrower2a]

at least one inoculation:

red to green

under 40%  70% red
at least 40% but less than 45% 50% red
at least 45% but under 50%  30% red
at least 50% but under 55% 30% orange
at least 55% but under 60% yellow
at least 60% but under 65% 30% green
over 65% 70% green (! -- over 72% in Vermont)

Full inoculation

red to green

under 40%  70% red *UNDER 35% ** UNDER 30%
at least 40% but less than 45% 50% red
at least 45% but under 50%  30% red
at least 50% but under 55% 30% orange
at least 55% but under 60% yellow
at least 60% but under 65% 30% green
over 65% 70% green

(Mississippi, God damn!)

https://www.mayoclinic.org/coronavirus-covid-19/vaccine-tracker

as of 18 June 2021.

[pbrower2a]

More contagious, if not having a higher death rate.

The usual pattern is for contagious diseases to mutate into something less quickly lethal but more contagious. Such is a good strategy for survival for an infection. A disease that kills its host and does not infect others has less of a chance to become endemic than one that can stick around living hosts.

It is not clear whether the Delta variant is any less lethal, but it is certainly more contagious. If more people get a slightly-less lethal infection, then more people may get sick and die, depending on the probabilities.   

[pbrower2a]

Obviously as more people get inoculated, fewer people can get infected, get seriously ill, and of course die. We are far removed from the days of 3000+ deaths, when every day was a 9/11 for mass (if dispersed) death. We obviously aren't going back that way.

Statistically we are through theworst, but I would not say that to someone  whose loved one struggles for survival on a ventilator.  

[pbrower2a]

My prediction is that there'll be another wave thanks to the deplorables refusing to get vaccinated. This one will be the worst one.

You’re delusional.

Speak for yourself.

"If I am to err, then let it be on the side of human life" -- George Herbert Walker Bush.

Big Business is making it easy to get inoculated against COVID-19. When a right-wing company like Wal*Mart makes it easy to get inoculated, maybe it is wise to get inoculated when liberals have been in a rush to get themselves inoculated.

[pbrower2a]

My prediction is that there'll be another wave thanks to the deplorables refusing to get vaccinated. This one will be the worst one.

Not. My. Problem. Anymore.

I got both doses of Pfizer months ago, and if they issue new lockdowns and mask mandates, they're just going to have to cram it. What was the point of getting vaccinated if we can't go right back to normal life right away?

I'm also fully vaccinated with Pfizer, but if enough people continue to get the virus, we'll have a mutation that evades vaccines completely. Trumpers are going to let this happen just to own the libs.

Again, are you aware that one mutation alone typically doesn’t make immunity disappear.
It’s more likely to be a progressive decline as more mutations add on.
And for all the talk about the anti vaxxers, they are not going to be the source of new mutations.
Really, the anti vaxxers may not be so terrible long term. The vaccines those morons won’t use will overtime be distributed to lesser developed countries with far lower vaccination rates, and those needles will go a lot further there than here.

Any person who contracts COVID-19 can spread it. Anyone who contracts it can be the host for a virus that can mutate into something more contagious or even damaging -- and perhaps capable of circumventing the extant vaccines. Those who are capable of getting vaccinated and do not have no excuse for something unconscionable.

Face it: the COVID-19 plague was a highly-unpleasant, disruptive time, and should we get a new virus (let us say "COVID-22") that attacks people as COVID-19 did, then we are in for another bad time.

The vaccines going to other countries are nice, but inoculating more Americans will little reduce the supply to countries that most need the inoculations -- like Brazil, Peru, India, and South Africa. We have shown our ability to produce prodigious yields of vaccines.

We do not fully understand this virus and its future, or any possibility of it evolving into something that hits hard again.   

If things do worsen, it probably won’t be from the dumb anti-vaxxers.
Instead, it will be millions of working class citizens in developing nations who will unfortunately be the first carriers of new variants. As we see huge rises of Covid in Southern/Eastern/Central Africa, that region alarms me the most.

See above. I'm not saying that we cannot solve our own problem and a huge chunk of the world's problems too.

We are in a much better position than last year, and the use of MRNA vaccines means much quicker booster shot production. Perhaps if we streamline approval for emergency use, we could get these out quickly.

We had to short-circuit the usual delays. We are at war with a virus that has killed more Americans than Hitler and Tojo combined.

Additionally, production is slowly increasing as was expected. We are not out of the woods yet, and Covid will still be a news topic in five years, but we are making progress.

If we do things right, COVID-2019 will be a topic of history texts and otherwise "old news"

If you really are that scared of getting sick, go get a third shot ffs. I wouldn’t recommend it (and it could even be dangerous) unless you are literally a cancer patient who has discussed it with your doctor, but I have heard of people doing that in those rare situations.

Progress on inoculations, state by state

at least one inoculation:

red to green

under 40%  70% red
at least 40% but less than 45% 50% red
at least 45% but under 50%  30% red
at least 50% but under 55% 30% orange
at least 55% but under 60% yellow
at least 60% but under 65% 30% green
over 65% 70% green (! -- over 72% in Vermont)

Full inoculation

red to green

under 40%  70% red *UNDER 35% ** UNDER 30%
at least 40% but less than 45% 50% red
at least 45% but under 50%  30% red
at least 50% but under 55% 30% orange
at least 55% but under 60% yellow
at least 60% but under 65% 30% green
over 65% 70% green

(Mississippi, God damn!)

https://www.mayoclinic.org/coronavirus-covid-19/vaccine-tracker

as of 18 June 2021.

.....................

Mississippi never was high on the list of states that I wanted to visit, , but for now it is completely off my bucket list. I have often called New England the destination for the "tourist who does some thinking"... and this year, that could hardly be more true.

[pbrower2a]

If you're not vaccinated, wear a mask, for all of the reasons we've discussed. If you're vaccinated, you don't need to wear a mask because you're most likely not going to catch Covid. If you're one of the unlucky few who gets sick anyway, then sure wear a mask then.

That’s why I am going to continue to mask up until they develop a strong COVID booster shot and/or if the types of COVID variants start to decrease.

The community in which I live has too many dimwits, religious fundamentalists, and Trump-supporting fanatics who either do not get or reject the message. I have been inoculated, but I still wear a mask when possible. Anyone who gets COVID-19 now is a potential playground for variants that could mutate in ways that circumvent the current inoculations.

I don't drive drunk. I do not speed. I wear a seat belt. I do not provoke dogs or snakes. I avoid starting confrontations in bars (indeed, I do my drinking at home. I am on the autistic spectrum and my expressions can easily be the wrong ones). Then again, there is no obvious cure for Big Stupidity any more than there is for Asperger's syndrome.

Speaking of dogs, there was a fellow in my county who on a cold winter day broke into a house. To his chagrin he found that an animal with most of the characteristics of a bear or Big Cat was there. He got out, but he failed to close the door behind him. The real top of local food chain where I live overtook him, overpowered him, and mauled him severely. The potential man-killer's owner was distraught to see the door open and his dog gone. His beloved pooch returned with a pair of bloody shoes. The would-be victim of a burglary-larceny was delighted to see his dog return.

Somehow the burglar got to the hospital, where he was treated for wounds instead of expiring of exposure (it was winter in Michigan). The police reunited him with shoes that the dog had somehow recovered. The crook would never have to wear such shoes that the dog had ripped with his big fangs and fouled with his filthy saliva. Crooks get government-supplied shoes for use in jail.

I wonder if that fellow got inoculated. Probably not unless he was in the lock-up.

[pbrower2a]

I'll be delighted to take a third shot against a deadly variant for which my immunity is suspect.

[pbrower2a]

Happy fourth of July.  Freedom over Faucism!

https://media2.picsearch.com/is?UvbaAub1dVbch4blhuX22BUWTuB3g-9sJtYt1Sz-uZM&height=237

[pbrower2a]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 7/1-7/7/2021 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

From March 2020 to mid-July 2021, I kept track of COVID-19 numbers daily. Now that there's a light at the end of the tunnel and states are staggering their daily updates, I am switching to a mid-week to mid-week model (Thursday to Wednesday).

Wednesdays are ideal for weekly updates since holidays don't usually fall in the middle of the week, and most states would have reported some update by that day each week.

New Legend:

Δ Change: Comparisons of Weekly Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths

Σ Increase: A week's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE:What's the overall change in the total?

You may access the archive of daily reports below, with the last daily update at the end, which was on 7/6/2021.

Day-to-Day Archive from 3/26/2020-7/6/2021
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6/16-6/22: <Baseline Week>

• Cases: 34,433,696
• Deaths: 617,864

6/23-6/30: <Last Week>

• Cases: 34,544,094 (+110,398 | Σ Increase: ↑0.32%)
• Deaths: 620,237 (+2,373 | Σ Increase: ↑0.38%)

7/1-7/7: <This Week>

• Cases: 34,641,189 (+97,095 | ΔW Change: ↓12.05% | Σ Increase: ↑0.28%)
• Deaths: 621,851 (+1,614 | ΔW Change: ↓31.98% | Σ Increase: ↑0.26%)

I thank you greatly. I have used these numbers in arguments on other Forums, often to swat down those who trivialize or deny the effects of COVID-19.

HIV/AIDS may not be a perfect analogy, but there was a huge amount of politically-loaded misinformation about a dangerous disease. Misinformation on something so dangerous as HIV/AIDS in its time or COVID-19 literally kills people.  That the Religious Right was consolidating a hold on many Americans as HIV/AIDS ravaged largely gay men and IV drug users that the Religious Right saw as pariahs damaged the appropriate response. Maybe gay men could clean up their acts, but IV drug users needed some help -- like needle exchanges.

We have plenty of cranks telling us that government promotions of injections are compromises of freedom. Well, laws against drunk driving are compromises of freedom, too. Last week I reported an erratic driver for possible DUI in full knowledge of the legal consequences in which he was caught. Maybe he got where he was going anyway. I hope that he reads the local paper and notices  a police call that says "possible drunk driver at (time) on (name withheld) Road... southbound". Or maybe he crossed the state line and got busted in a town that has rigid traffic-law enforcement.

New infections and deaths are going down. At one point I had a grim log comparing the death toll as I ticked off cities whose population are comparable to the death toll that you show. On one day when the death toll was about half what it is now I was able to mention Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and St. Louis on the same day because those three cities have similar population numbers.

Wikipedia has a list of US cities by population:

     https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_cities_by_population

317 cities in the fifty states (this includes Washington, DC) and five in Puerto Rico have populations of 100,000 or more. There are eight Census-designated places that have somehow avoided incorporation. The grim toll just passed Louisville (29th) at 618,338, and in that area on the list the cities get scarcer (Milwaukee at 30th is at 589,067 and Memphis at 28th is at 649,705). There is some bunching between 656,751 (Portland, Oregon is 27th and Nashville, Tennessee is 23rd with such places as Oklahoma City, Detroit, and Las Vegas intervening.

I am using 2018 Census estimates. 

If I never get to compare the total to Memphis, I will be delighted. I did my share to keep from becoming a statistic.

It was easy to remind people of how dangerous COVID-19 was when the death toll was 3000 or more in a day (that is roughly the toll from the 9/11 attack).  In less than two weeks we could have the usual death toll from motor-vehicle collisions, which have tended downward to about 30,000 a year. Of course we rebuild highways to reduce the death toll. Of course we have state police setting up radar traps for speeders and set up enforcement zones for DUI. I have no problem with that.

The death toll is slowing down, and the general assumption at this stage is that cultures that show no respect for scientific expertise are largely the ones contracting COVID-19 and dying of it.   

I'm guessing that at some point it will be necessary to get a Census-like accounting of who got sick from COVID-19 and who died from it, with statistics showing Census tracts and such statistics as ethnicity and income. Maybe by Census tracts we will find connections to political orientation and death from COVID-19. Timing will matter.

There will be political consequences. Indeed, if COVID-19 hit minority communities harder than white communities before the 2020 election, then we may have some idea of how Donald Trump could come close to getting re-elected. But if since then the toll has been of reactionary white people, then we may see consequences as early as 2022.

And, yes, I see Donald Trump culpable in negligent homicide on a large scale, if not genocide.