COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[soundchaser]

When is the Delta surge projected to level off?

I saw some recent projections saying it would level off right about now. "TheLawyerCraig" on Twitter might have posted some.

Robert Redfield is saying it’s very likely another variant, more dangerous than Delta, is coming this fall.

Based on what, exactly? (And don’t say “lambda,” because we already know that’s not as dangerous as delta.)

[It’s so Joever]

When is the Delta surge projected to level off?

I saw some recent projections saying it would level off right about now. "TheLawyerCraig" on Twitter might have posted some.

Robert Redfield is saying it’s very likely another variant, more dangerous than Delta, is coming this fall.

It may, it may not.
I will say though, having only some of the population vaccinated while the virus spreads across via the unvaccinated is the right condition for a vaccine resistant variant to emerge.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/tedcruz/status/1425086627232325632?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Not only are Republicans the most dangerous enemy to American democracy, they are also an enemy to the health of the American people.

The only health being threatened by this are that of the unvaccinated, most of whom are three by choice.

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

When is the Delta surge projected to level off?

I saw some recent projections saying it would level off right about now. "TheLawyerCraig" on Twitter might have posted some.

Robert Redfield is saying it’s very likely another variant, more dangerous than Delta, is coming this fall.

It may, it may not.
I will say though, having only some of the population vaccinated while the virus spreads across via the unvaccinated is the right condition for a vaccine resistant variant to emerge.

So if that happens, that’s it? We are going to be in the game The Last of Us?

[emailking]

That's my favorite game but no. Maybe it could keep creating dangerous variants and take a few years to reach an equilibrium but probably not. And it definitely isn't going to make anybody aggressive.

[Hammy]

When is the Delta surge projected to level off?

I saw some recent projections saying it would level off right about now. "TheLawyerCraig" on Twitter might have posted some.

Robert Redfield is saying it’s very likely another variant, more dangerous than Delta, is coming this fall.

People who say things like this with such evidence-lacking certainty really do validate the claim some are making that people just want this go to on forever out of some apocalypse fetish.

[emailking]

FDA expected to authorize Covid-19 vaccine booster shots for immunocompromised people within the next 48 hours

The US Food and Drug Administration is expected to announce within the next 48 hours that it is authorizing Covid-19 vaccine booster shots for people who are immunocompromised, according to a source familiar with the discussions.

This would be a third shot of the current two-dose Pfizer and Moderna vaccines. That announcement could slide, the source cautioned, but this is the current timing.

"The FDA is closely monitoring data as it becomes available from studies administering an additional dose of the authorized COVID-19 vaccines to immunocompromised individuals," an FDA spokesperson told CNN. "The agency, along with the CDC, is evaluating potential options on this issue, and will share information in the near future."

https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/11/politics/fda-third-dose-covid-19-vaccine/index.html

[Donerail]

The only health being threatened by this are that of the unvaccinated, most of whom are three by choice.

Your health is also under threat. I don't know or care about "variants," that's effectively unpredictable, but if the hospitals are full, that's a big problem. No vaccine for auto accidents, and outcomes get dramatically worse if you have to postpone trauma care by an hour or three. That's the health impact to be concerned about — not the individual patients but the fact that it's flooding the system.

[Tekken_Guy]

The only health being threatened by this are that of the unvaccinated, most of whom are three by choice.

Your health is also under threat. I don't know or care about "variants," that's effectively unpredictable, but if the hospitals are full, that's a big problem. No vaccine for auto accidents, and outcomes get dramatically worse if you have to postpone trauma care by an hour or three. That's the health impact to be concerned about — not the individual patients but the fact that it's flooding the system.

I meant as in a direct threat from the virus itself.

[ProudModerate2]

The only health being threatened by this are that of the unvaccinated, most of whom are three by choice.

Your health is also under threat. I don't know or care about "variants," that's effectively unpredictable, but if the hospitals are full, that's a big problem. No vaccine for auto accidents, and outcomes get dramatically worse if you have to postpone trauma care by an hour or three. That's the health impact to be concerned about — not the individual patients but the fact that it's flooding the system.

I meant as in a direct threat from the virus itself.

What difference does it make if it's a direct or indirect threat? You have to look at, and consider both.
If you are in a bunker that will save you from the explosive, immediate effects of a hydrogen bomb, you also need to consider if the bunker is properly sealed to help you from the radioactive fallout that comes soon after.

[Tekken_Guy]

The only health being threatened by this are that of the unvaccinated, most of whom are three by choice.

Your health is also under threat. I don't know or care about "variants," that's effectively unpredictable, but if the hospitals are full, that's a big problem. No vaccine for auto accidents, and outcomes get dramatically worse if you have to postpone trauma care by an hour or three. That's the health impact to be concerned about — not the individual patients but the fact that it's flooding the system.

I meant as in a direct threat from the virus itself.

What difference does it make if it's a direct or indirect threat? You have to look at, and consider both.
If you are in a bunker that will save you from the explosive, immediate effects of a hydrogen bomb, you also need to consider if the bunker is properly sealed to help you from the radioactive fallout that comes soon after.

Isn't the solution here just to get more people vaccinated? The smaller the vulnerable population, the less stress there is on the hospital system.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

With these caveats, it does seem like the covid death rate among vaccinated people is in fact substantially lower than the death rate for flu.   And thus I'm not sure why vaccinated people should need to take more precautions to avoid covid than they do against the flu.

Hopefully you don't end up as one of the ~20% or so of patients with long COVID (or maybe ~10% of vaccinated patients, we'll have to see how the numbers turn out), because if you end up like the person I know who still can't breathe normally a year later, it will be a hell of a lot harder to keep denying its existence.

Sorry, but long COVID is not just like the flu. And yes, it does exist. And doesn't just exist, but is quite common.



And...

The point being that Covid is very much not the flu, but if we can get people to get their shots, we can turn it into the flu. What I mean by that is we will have new variants as the flu does and perhaps need new shots each year, but doing so will reduce the risk of serous illness or death massively for the general public at which point I feel most Americans can comfortably live their lives as they did before.

Same to you.

Although I would agree that your point about the potential for successful mass vaccination to greatly reduce hospitalization and deaths is essentially right on its own merits, it fails to acknowledge the existence of long COVID, since as far as we know so far vaccination doesn't have the same sort of dramatic reductions for long COVID as vaccination appears to have for hospitalization and death.

A true comfortable "return to normal" requires not just fixing the hospitalization and death issues, but also addressing long COVID in some other way than simply just saying "a large share of the population will have a significant new harmful chronic medical condition, and that's perfectly fine!"

[ProudModerate2]

The only health being threatened by this are that of the unvaccinated, most of whom are three by choice.

Your health is also under threat. I don't know or care about "variants," that's effectively unpredictable, but if the hospitals are full, that's a big problem. No vaccine for auto accidents, and outcomes get dramatically worse if you have to postpone trauma care by an hour or three. That's the health impact to be concerned about — not the individual patients but the fact that it's flooding the system.

I meant as in a direct threat from the virus itself.

What difference does it make if it's a direct or indirect threat? You have to look at, and consider both.
If you are in a bunker that will save you from the explosive, immediate effects of a hydrogen bomb, you also need to consider if the bunker is properly sealed to help you from the radioactive fallout that comes soon after.

Isn't the solution here just to get more people vaccinated? The smaller the vulnerable population, the less stress there is on the hospital system.

No one with more than half-a-brain is saying otherwise.
But as we continue to slowly convince more and more people to get vaccinated, there isn't anything wrong with taking additional mitigation efforts to reduce and slow the transmission down (to help "the hospital system").
If you want to do your part to help, go on other forums which are pro-trump/Conservative, and tell "your brothers" that they are idiots for not getting vaccinated simply to "own the liberals." Maybe they will listen to you, versus them thinking they must be forced to obey "science and facts" coming from the left.

[Tekken_Guy]

The only health being threatened by this are that of the unvaccinated, most of whom are three by choice.

Your health is also under threat. I don't know or care about "variants," that's effectively unpredictable, but if the hospitals are full, that's a big problem. No vaccine for auto accidents, and outcomes get dramatically worse if you have to postpone trauma care by an hour or three. That's the health impact to be concerned about — not the individual patients but the fact that it's flooding the system.

I meant as in a direct threat from the virus itself.

What difference does it make if it's a direct or indirect threat? You have to look at, and consider both.
If you are in a bunker that will save you from the explosive, immediate effects of a hydrogen bomb, you also need to consider if the bunker is properly sealed to help you from the radioactive fallout that comes soon after.

Isn't the solution here just to get more people vaccinated? The smaller the vulnerable population, the less stress there is on the hospital system.

No one with more than half-a-brain is saying otherwise.
But as we continue to slowly convince more and more people to get vaccinated, there isn't anything wrong with taking additional mitigation efforts to reduce and slow the transmission down (to help "the hospital system").
If you want to do your part to help, go on other forums which are pro-trump/Conservative, and tell "your brothers" that they are idiots for not getting vaccinated simply to "own the liberals." Maybe they will listen to you, versus them thinking they must be forced to obey "science and facts" coming from the left.

Except I'm not too much of a Trump supporter and I'll just be dismissed as a RINO. Besides, I barely even know any anti-vaxxers anyway.

[GP270watch]

https://twitter.com/natalie_allison/status/1425449438202548224

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/natalie_allison/status/1425449438202548224

Does anyone really not believe by now that the Republican Party isn't trying to start another insurrection? We're getting micro versions of it all over the country over similarly stupid wedge issue bulls****: this, critical race theory, QAnon, take your pick. It's getting old, but not getting any less startling and depressing.

[ProudModerate2]

The only health being threatened by this are that of the unvaccinated, most of whom are three by choice.

Your health is also under threat. I don't know or care about "variants," that's effectively unpredictable, but if the hospitals are full, that's a big problem. No vaccine for auto accidents, and outcomes get dramatically worse if you have to postpone trauma care by an hour or three. That's the health impact to be concerned about — not the individual patients but the fact that it's flooding the system.

I meant as in a direct threat from the virus itself.

What difference does it make if it's a direct or indirect threat? You have to look at, and consider both.
If you are in a bunker that will save you from the explosive, immediate effects of a hydrogen bomb, you also need to consider if the bunker is properly sealed to help you from the radioactive fallout that comes soon after.

Isn't the solution here just to get more people vaccinated? The smaller the vulnerable population, the less stress there is on the hospital system.

No one with more than half-a-brain is saying otherwise.
But as we continue to slowly convince more and more people to get vaccinated, there isn't anything wrong with taking additional mitigation efforts to reduce and slow the transmission down (to help "the hospital system").
If you want to do your part to help, go on other forums which are pro-trump/Conservative, and tell "your brothers" that they are idiots for not getting vaccinated simply to "own the liberals." Maybe they will listen to you, versus them thinking they must be forced to obey "science and facts" coming from the left.

Except I'm not too much of a Trump supporter and I'll just be dismissed as a RINO. Besides, I barely even know any anti-vaxxers anyway.

That's yet another problem with your side.
If any of you say anything that has logic and science behind it, you are immediately labeled "a RINO."
Your party is a mess (most especially from when many in the GOP electorate became trump-cultists).
Anyway, thank you for at least being candid in your response.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/natalie_allison/status/1425449438202548224

These Trumpists certainly stepped over the line here. Threatening someone, regardless of your reasons for disagreeing with them, is an action that is always over the line.

[ProudModerate2]

https://twitter.com/natalie_allison/status/1425449438202548224

These people are pathetic.
These medical professionals are brought-in to advise and make statements as experts in their field, and they are harrassed by what seems to be right-wing-NutJob parents. Good God.
They are making threats right in front of the police, yet why are the police not doing anything about that?

[GP270watch]

 Where does the ignorance from this video come from? This is the richest area of Tennessee according to the journalist so you can't blame economic anxieties. I hear one of the maniacs yelling about god and hell, so is it based in religious craziness?

[It’s so Joever]

Do we have any studies on the prevalence of long Covid in breakthrough cases? It may be significantly lower.

[Tekken_Guy]

Where does the ignorance from this video come from? This is the richest area of Tennessee according to the journalist so you can't blame economic anxieties. I hear one of the maniacs yelling about god and hell, so is it based in religious craziness?

Technically I think Brentwood and Belle Meade may be richer, but stil..

[Del Tachi]

When is the Delta surge projected to level off?

I saw some recent projections saying it would level off right about now. "TheLawyerCraig" on Twitter might have posted some.

Robert Redfield is saying it’s very likely another variant, more dangerous than Delta, is coming this fall.

People who say things like this with such evidence-lacking certainty really do validate the claim some are making that people just want this go to on forever out of some apocalypse fetish.

Some people do want this to go on forever and have an apocalypse fetish (i.e., liberals.)

[Horus]

When is the Delta surge projected to level off?

I saw some recent projections saying it would level off right about now. "TheLawyerCraig" on Twitter might have posted some.

Robert Redfield is saying it’s very likely another variant, more dangerous than Delta, is coming this fall.

People who say things like this with such evidence-lacking certainty really do validate the claim some are making that people just want this go to on forever out of some apocalypse fetish.

Some people do want this to go on forever and have an apocalypse fetish (i.e., liberals.)

Liberals aren't the ones stockpiling for the next 2012 joke or raving on about vaccines being the mark of the beast bringing about the "end times." Apocalypse fetishes are not something either side has a monopoly on.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 8/5-8/11/2021 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

From March 2020 to mid-July 2021, I kept track of COVID-19 numbers daily. Now that there's a light at the end of the tunnel and states are staggering their daily updates, I am switching to a mid-week to mid-week model (Thursday to Wednesday).

Wednesdays are ideal for weekly updates since holidays don't usually fall in the middle of the week, and most states would have reported some update by that day each week.

New Legend:

Δ Change: Comparisons of Weekly Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths

Σ Increase: A week's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE:What's the overall change in the total?

You may access the archive of daily reports below, with the last daily update at the end, which was on 7/6/2021.

Day-to-Day Archive from 3/26/2020-7/6/2021
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6/16-6/22: <Baseline Week>

• Cases: 34,433,696
• Deaths: 617,864

6/23-6/30:

• Cases: 34,544,094 (+110,398 | Σ Increase: ↑0.32%)
• Deaths: 620,237 (+2,373 | Σ Increase: ↑0.38%)

7/1-7/7:

• Cases: 34,641,189 (+97,095 | ΔW Change: ↓12.05% | Σ Increase: ↑0.28%)
• Deaths: 621,851 (+1,614 | ΔW Change: ↓31.98% | Σ Increase: ↑0.26%)

7/8-7/14:

• Cases: 34,848,068 (+206,879 | ΔW Change: ↑113.07% | Σ Increase: ↑0.60%)
• Deaths: 623,838 (+1,987 | ΔW Change: ↑23.11% | Σ Increase: ↑0.32%)

7/15-7/21:

• Cases: 35,146,476 (+298,408 | ΔW Change: ↑44.24% | Σ Increase: ↑0.86%)
• Deaths: 625,808 (+1,970 | ΔW Change: ↓0.86% | Σ Increase: ↑0.32%)

7/22-7/28:

• Cases: 35,487,348 (+340,872 | ΔW Change: ↑14.23% | Σ Increase: ↑0.97%)
• Deaths: 628,098 (+2,290 | ΔW Change: ↑16.24% | Σ Increase: ↑0.37%)

7/29-8/4: <Last Week>

• Cases: 36,176,471 (+689,123 | ΔW Change: ↑102.17% | Σ Increase: ↑1.94%)
• Deaths: 631,299 (+3,201 | ΔW Change: ↑39.78% | Σ Increase: ↑0.51%)

8/5-8/11: <This Week>

• Cases: 37,027,466 (+850,995 | ΔW Change: ↑23.49% | Σ Increase: ↑2.35%)
• Deaths: 635,629 (+4,330 | ΔW Change: ↑35.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.69%)