COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[Calthrina950]

Again, we really need a new thread title, or a new thread in general. 162 pages is more than enough.

Yeah, I have no idea why the mods are so against it. It’s not that hard, and they’ve already done it 5 times

I don't understand it either. But then again, I don't understand much of what they say and do.

[Calthrina950]

This is a terrible decision unless they're going to mandate proof of vaccination, otherwise it's just going to encourage unvaccinated people to lie and spread the virus more.

There is some truth to this. I have no doubts that many unvaccinated people are going to use this new CDC guidance as an excuse to stop wearing masks-if they haven't do so already-or to justify their not doing so. However, do you think it's reasonable to expect vaccinated people to continue to wear masks indefinitely? I certainly don't think so. Unfortunately, there will be a segment of the population that will don masks long after they've received the vaccine. But I suspect that the majority of people will move back to normal behavior once it's safe for them to do so.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/briantashman/status/1393215036114546694

This kind of thing also makes me wonder how right wingers who are simultaneously anti-mask and anti-vaccine are taking the news. Their heads must be spinning in not knowing the best way to trigger teh libz anymore.

By the way, back on topic, in New Jersey and New York apparently the mask mandate is still in effect. I personally don't care, but I'm sure some are disappointed; like this guy I saw at a 7-11 yesterday who was being very loud and overt about how happy he was in not having to wear a mask anymore.

Democratic states do seem to be proceeding at different rates now. In my home state of Colorado, Governor Polis, who was one of the last Democratic Governors to issue a mask mandate, has now become one of the first to effectively discard it. Vaccinated Coloradoans will no longer be required to wear a mask in most public settings, and the state is only "recommending", not requiring, that unvaccinated Coloradoans do so. The state still is asking people to respect the mandates of those businesses who choose to keep them.

Oregon and Pennsylvania have also effectively abandoned their mask mandates, and Minnesota has also. Other states, like New York and New Jersey (as you mentioned), and also North Carolina, Hawaii, Massachusetts, etc. seem to be dragging their feet more on lifting the mandates, but hopefully they will soon follow suit. It would be hypocritical of them not to do so otherwise. And national retailer chains are starting to respond; Walmart and Trader Joe's have abolished their mask requirement for vaccinated customers, and the latter isn't going to inquire into vaccination status.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1393631864984899586

Honor system during a deadly pandemic when people have already been ignoring requirements? Really? This gross irresponsibility is why government-imposed mandates are still needed.

How much longer do you think mask mandates should remain in place? For the rest of the year?

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1393631864984899586

Honor system during a deadly pandemic when people have already been ignoring requirements? Really? This gross irresponsibility is why government-imposed mandates are still needed.

How much longer do you think mask mandates should remain in place? For the rest of the year?

For unvaccinated people they should remain indefinitely, and be enforced.

Why? Unvaccinated people have been violating the mask mandates throughout the pandemic, and there is no reasonable way of making a distinction between vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals, unless if we start potentially violating the personal privacy of individuals. And that would be a permanent change, which would not bring about a return to pre-pandemic life.

[Calthrina950]

Mask mandates should be based on case numbers and positivity rates. Where to draw that line is difficult.

Do you support Polis' decision to effectively rescind the mask mandate in Colorado?

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1393631864984899586

Honor system during a deadly pandemic when people have already been ignoring requirements? Really? This gross irresponsibility is why government-imposed mandates are still needed.

How much longer do you think mask mandates should remain in place? For the rest of the year?

For unvaccinated people they should remain indefinitely, and be enforced.

Why? Unvaccinated people have been violating the mask mandates throughout the pandemic, and there is no reasonable way of making a distinction between vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals, unless if we start potentially violating the personal privacy of individuals. And that would be a permanent change, which would not bring about a return to pre-pandemic life.

Simple. If you have to show your ID to vote or buy alcohol, then you should be required to show proof that you're vaccinated to enter a business if you choose not to wear a mask. This should continue until enough people are vaccinated that there's too little spread in all states for further mutations to occur.

So in other words, you think there we should have vaccine passports? At least until 70% of the population is vaccinated?

[Calthrina950]

I wanted to provide an update about matters at my workplace. As of yesterday, vaccinated employees and customers are no longer required to wear masks at Home Depot. Unvaccinated employees and customers are "strongly encouraged" to wear one, but will no longer be required to. For customers at least, this constitutes no change in reality, as my store has never enforced the mask requirement for them. For employees, however, it does, as we had all been required to wear masks for more than a year. Most of the employees at my store are still wearing them for now, but some have stopped doing so. However, I know for a fact that some of the maskless employees are not vaccinated, and this brings up the problem of determining vaccination status which has already been discussed at length.

One of those maskless employees, in fact, is a staunch Trump supporter who has explicitly said they don't plan on getting the vaccine. And this ties into a broader observation I have. I would now say that close to 50%, if not an outright majority of customers, are no longer wearing masks. As I've said before, those who've discarded them already are those who were opposed to wearing masks from before, less likely to be vaccinated, and more likely to be conservative or identify with the right-although this obviously isn't a universal description for them. It'll be interesting to see how the numbers change in the coming days.

[Calthrina950]

Who can be certain that no novel, virulent variant of COVID-19 immune to current inoculations won't emerge? People failing to wear masks are potential incubators of  such a disease  -- should it occur.

Correction: Those who haven’t received a second dose (or one if applicable) should wear a mask. Although possible, it’s not likely a mutation would come from a fully vaccinated human.

That includes anti-vaxxer Karens, even if they are from Mississippi.

Have you received both doses? And are you still wearing a mask in public places? What have you noticed since the mask mandate in Colorado was lifted?

[Calthrina950]

Who can be certain that no novel, virulent variant of COVID-19 immune to current inoculations won't emerge? People failing to wear masks are potential incubators of  such a disease  -- should it occur.

Correction: Those who haven’t received a second dose (or one if applicable) should wear a mask. Although possible, it’s not likely a mutation would come from a fully vaccinated human.

That includes anti-vaxxer Karens, even if they are from Mississippi.

Have you received both doses? And are you still wearing a mask in public places? What have you noticed since the mask mandate in Colorado was lifted?

Yes I have received both doses, and I don’t mask as much anymore, but I still do for personal reasons. I do not expect nor encourage fully vaccinated people to mask in general and don’t think it’s necessary, I’m just going to need time to adjust back to normal myself. As for mask mandates, I haven’t seen a ton. Our school emphasized that there was no outdoor mask mandate (but there was and still is an indoor one) but that wasn’t a change in policy, more of them just repeating it again.
Otherwise I’m not out much due to my lifestyle choices, but in general people seem to be wearing them still inside and tend to not outside which is fair.
I just hope more people get vaccinated so we can reach a degree of immunity.

I agree with this. I read in the Colorado Springs Independent today that El Paso County-where I live-has a 43% vaccination rate among the eligible population, lagging behind other parts of the state, such as Douglas County, which has a 60% vaccination rate, and San Juan County, which has an 81% vaccination rate-not that hard to achieve of course, for the least populous county in the state. I would imagine that Denver, Boulder, and the suburban counties around Denver, as well as Larimer County, probably all have higher vaccination rates than El Paso County.

And down here, as I've noted, the numbers of maskless have increased dramatically. I would say that around 60% of the customers at my job are now going about maskless, and around 25% of the employees. As of this Monday, I will be fully vaccinated, since that will be the date when two weeks have passed since I got my second dose. However, I'm on the fence as to whether or not I will wear a mask after that, as I've noted here.

[Calthrina950]

Today, I went maskless at my job for the first time in more than a year. It has been two weeks since I received my second dose of the Moderna vaccine, so I am now fully vaccinated, under the CDC's definition. I felt some trepidation at doing so, given my personal situation at home which I've talked about elsewhere, and it was very different from what I had become used to. But I stuck with it. I will still carry my mask on my person, and I'll still wear it where required or when I'm with my family members. But otherwise, I'm done. Hopefully, the situation will continue to improve so that within the next few months, masks will no longer be worn by all but a few.

[Calthrina950]

It’s well last time to change the title IMO

Vaximum Velocity: A Race to Herd Immunity?

The moderators still aren't going to do it, though. They've made that clear.

[Calthrina950]

!!

We seem to be nearing the end of the COVID pandemic in the United States and its territories.

When do you think things will be stable enough that you can issue more limited case reports? They have certainly been informative, but I can't imagine you plan on continuing them indefinitely.

[Calthrina950]

The US has crossed 600,000 COVID deaths.

Didn't we cross that threshold last week or the week before?

[Calthrina950]

Here's a map of counties that have already hit 70% of eligible people totally vaccinated.



No county data for VT, VA, WV, GA, or HI

Next counties set to turn green:
Dane County, WI
Hood River County, OR
Howard County, MD
Middlesex Count, CT
Mineral County, CO
Montgomery County, MD
San Juan County, WA
Summit County, CO

Almost all of these counties, with the exception of Hamilton County, New York, voted for Biden. What does that tell you? It's further evidence that Democratic voters have been getting vaccinated at higher rates than their Republican counterparts and have greater faith in the vaccine.

[Calthrina950]

Guys, are we seriously going to go through the holiday cycle again?
Don’t get me wrong, numbers are likely decreasing, but these are artificially low because it’s Memorial Day weekend.
So first we will see artificially low numbers, and then there will be a “rise” next week. Honestly I wouldn’t look too hard at the data this next week, the errors should sort themselves out by next Tuesday.
Stay safe and happy Memorial Day

...Honestly, after this and my election predictions, I think I should just start dooming forever.

Seriously I’m shocked we didn’t see a rise. I was expected a small one, but no. Clearly we are in a better situation than thought. This also does say a lot about the strength of vaccinations, even as we have reopened more, cases still decline.

It seems like many people think otherwise, such as my own family. Although the pandemic is receding, it's still having an impact upon my personal life, in unfortunate ways.

[Calthrina950]

Florida just became the 22nd state where 50% or more of the population has received at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccination! 💪💪💪

Joining these states (as well as territories):

Image Link

With the exception of Florida, every state that has reached that benchmark voted for Biden. This is yet another map showing how Democratic voters and Democratic areas are more likely to get vaccinated than their Republican counterparts.

[Calthrina950]

African-Americans still skeptical of the COVID vaccine despite Biden's best efforts:

Biden’s vaccine push fails to gain traction with African Americans
Less than a quarter of Black Americans had received their first Covid-19 shot as of June 3. That's less than other racial and ethnic groups tracked by the CDC.

As I've noted before, this vaccine hesitancy has reached into my own family. Neither my father nor my uncle have gotten the vaccine. They're not convinced of its efficacy, and don't feel comfortable with getting it now. Conversely, I am fully vaccinated, as is my stepmother. Blacks have long tended to be suspicious of doctors and of our country's medical system in general, and the reasons for this are grounded in the discriminatory practices and unfair experiments many blacks experienced in the past, going back to the days of slavery.

[Calthrina950]

African-Americans still skeptical of the COVID vaccine despite Biden's best efforts:

Biden’s vaccine push fails to gain traction with African Americans
Less than a quarter of Black Americans had received their first Covid-19 shot as of June 3. That's less than other racial and ethnic groups tracked by the CDC.

As I've noted before, this vaccine hesitancy has reached into my own family. Neither my father nor my uncle have gotten the vaccine. They're not convinced of its efficacy, and don't feel comfortable with getting it now. Conversely, I am fully vaccinated, as is my stepmother. Blacks have long tended to be suspicious of doctors and of our country's medical system in general, and the reasons for this are grounded in the discriminatory practices and unfair experiments many blacks experienced in the past, going back to the days of slavery.

That suspicion must be very deep indeed, since apparently even former President Obama hasn't been able to convince them to take it.

 

It's frustrating. I've talked about how my father and stepmother want me to wear a mask around them at home, even though I'm fully vaccinated, because they're concerned I might bring the virus back to them and they're doubtful that the vaccine will be "100% effective." I had sincerely hoped that the vaccine would bring back a return to normalcy, but in my personal life, that still hasn't occurred to the extent I would wish.

[Calthrina950]

I think it's a poor reflection on our populace that people need more incentive to get vaccinated. Apparently the health of themselves and society isn't enticing enough. But whatever, I get why these deal-sweeteners (sometimes literally) are being done. As long as it helps us reach herd immunity at all I can get past it.

Unfortunately Americans as a whole are selfish and lazy and generally not prone to doing something if there's not immediate personal gain involved.

This is the sad reality. But logically, becoming immune to a deadly disease and being less likely to spread it really ought to be personal gain enough. Our populace isn't so logical though, especially anti-vax ideology. Meanwhile, in places like India, there are potentially a billion people who would give anything to the have the access to vaccines that we do.

You are dead on with these. Americans are privileged enough, compared to countries in the developing world, that they can refuse to take the vaccine. People in India and elsewhere are absolutely grateful for these same vaccines, as they are grateful for so many other things in life that we take for granted.

Revisiting this post, I saw a clip of an interview which Dr. Fauci did in the past week or so where he made the exact same point that I made here-that there are people in developing countries (i.e. the "Third World") who would do anything to obtain access to the vaccines which so many Americans have taken for granted or have remained skeptical of.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/Tylerjoelb/status/1402285299888181249
https://twitter.com/Tylerjoelb/status/1402288748575002632

Man I wish my vaccine turned me into Magneto.

I'm usually not one for stereotyping, but why is is that anti-vaxxers always seem to fit into the same kind of demographic profile, in terms of gender, race, and socioeconomic status?

[Calthrina950]

Without even watching the videos, the people’s facial expressions in the thumbnails alone are pretty great.

Pretty much “WTF? Is she retarded?”

Really? I was honestly surprised how composed & non-chalant some of the folks were. Hell, the lady directly to the left of her in the video seemed to be nodding in agreement about the metallic foreheads.

I don't know how spectators of these governmental hearings can stay composed & quiet at some of the mindlessness that's on display.

Some of the people in that audience probably agreed with what she was saying, but kept it to themselves.

[Calthrina950]

I just got home from a nice little roadtrip centered on Wind Cave National Park in South Dakota. Lemme tell ya, COVID has been pretty much forgotten in most of the Plains states.

Very few masks were seen, even on store and restaurant employees throughout the trip, and even at the national park. Even most park rangers didn't wear masks. There was a nice little guided tour of the cave, and very few visitors wore masks. There was also pretty much no social distancing inside the cave.

So the Midwest moves on, while the Los Angeles school system drags along.

California as a whole, however, is ending its mask mandate on Tuesday. I believe it and Hawaii are the only two remaining states that still have a mask mandate in force, and Hawaii has been following California's lead with regards to coronavrius restrictions. Hopefully, the Los Angeles School District and other school districts around the country will discard masks before the year is out. Many of them have already done so.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/Tylerjoelb/status/1402285299888181249
https://twitter.com/Tylerjoelb/status/1402288748575002632

Man I wish my vaccine turned me into Magneto.

I'm usually not one for stereotyping, but why is is that anti-vaxxers always seem to fit into the same kind of demographic profile, in terms of gender, race, and socioeconomic status?

My guess is that Boomers in general are susceptible to misinformation since they haven’t grown up with the internet like millennials and Zoomers. Plus they’re hyper concentrated on Facebook.

Expanding upon this, the patterns seem to be that women are much more likely than men to believe in anti-vaxxer conspiracy theories, that white women are more likely than minority women to do so, and that middle-class women (i.e. "soccer moms" and retirees) are the most visible of all in pushing such theories. And there are anti-vaxxers on both sides of the ideological spectrum, although the opposition to the coronavirus vaccine in particular is overwhelmingly from the right.

[Calthrina950]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 6/14 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE:What's the overall change in the total?

Brackets []: These represent the total change for the day, including backlogged reports, if any.

• These numbers are inflated relative to the actual reports for the day, so they are not used to calculate the comparative percentage shifts.

Older Numbers (Hidden in spoiler mode to make the post more compact)

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

<Last Numbers for 3/26-3/28 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 3/29-4/4 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/5-4/11 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/12-4/18 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/19-4/25 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 4/26-5/2 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 5/3-5/9 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 5/10-5/16 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 5/17-5/23 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 5/24-5/30 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 5/31-6/6 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 6/7-6/13 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 6/14-6/20 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 6/21-6/27 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 6/28-7/4 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 7/5-7/11 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 7/12-7/18 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 7/19-7/25 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 7/26-8/1 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 8/2-8/8 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 8/9-8/15 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 8/16-8/22 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 8/23-8/29 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 8/30-9/5 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 9/6-9/12 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 9/13-9/19 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 9/20-9/26 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 9/27-10/3 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 10/4-10/10 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 10/11-10/17 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 10/18-10/24 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 10/25-10/31 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 11/1-11/7 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 11/8-11/14 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 11/15-11/21 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 11/22-11/28 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 11/29-12/5 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 12/6-12/12 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 12/13-12/19 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 12/20-12/26 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 12/27-1/2 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 1/3-1/9 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 1/10-1/16 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 1/17-1/23 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 1/24-1/30 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 1/31-2/6 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 2/7-2/13 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 2/14-2/20 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 2/21-2/27 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 2/28-3/6 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 3/7-3-13 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 3/14-3-20 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 3/21-3/27 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 3/28-4/3 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 4/4-4/10 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 4/11-4/17 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 4/18-4/24 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 4/25-5/1 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 5/2-5/8 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 5/9-5/15 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 5/16-5/22 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 5/23-5/29 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 5/30-6/5 in this Post>

6/6: <Sunday>

• Cases: 34,210,782 (+6,408 [+7,023] | ΔW Change: ↓17.32% | Σ Increase: ↑0.02%)
• Deaths: 612,366 (+166 | ΔW Change: ↑33.87% | Σ Increase: ↑0.03%)

6/7 (Last Week Holiday): <M>

• Cases: 34,227,237 (+12,283 [+16,455] | ΔW Change: ↑50.99% | Σ Increase: ↑0.05%)
• Deaths: 612,701 (+335 | ΔW Change: ↑153.79% | Σ Increase: ↑0.05%)

6/8: <T>

• Cases: 34,242,866 (+13,542 [+15,629] | ΔW Change: ↑4.36% | Σ Increase: ↑0.05%)
• Deaths: 613,052 (+351 | ΔW Change: ↑22.30% | Σ Increase: ↑0.06%)

6/9: <W>

• Cases: 34,264,727 (+14,201 [+21,861] | ΔW Change: ↓16.34% | Σ Increase: ↑0.06%)
• Deaths: 613,494 (+442 | ΔW Change: ↓14.00% | Σ Increase: ↑0.07%)

6/10: <Þ>

• Cases: 34,275,437 (+10,710 | ΔW Change: ↓59.51% | Σ Increase: ↑0.03%)
• Deaths: 613,906 (+412 | ΔW Change: ↓24.82% | Σ Increase: ↑0.07%)

6/11: <F>

• Cases: 34,306,280 (+15,928 [+30,843] | ΔW Change: ↓5.89% | Σ Increase: ↑0.09%)
• Deaths: 614,732 (+421 [+826] | ΔW Change: ↑70.45% | Σ Increase: ↑0.13%)

6/12: <S>

• Cases: 34,315,867 (+9,587 | ΔW Change: ↓18.31% | Σ Increase: ↑0.03%)
• Deaths: 615,037 (+305 | ΔW Change: ↓20.78% | Σ Increase: ↑0.05%)

6/13 (Yesterday): <Sunday>

• Cases: 34,321,093 (+5,226 | ΔW Change: ↓18.45% | Σ Increase: ↑0.02%)
• Deaths: 615,053 (+16 | ΔW Change: ↓90.36% | Σ Increase: ↑0.00%)

6/14 (Today): <M>

• Cases: 34,334,299 (+7,310 [+13,206] | ΔW Change: ↓40.49% | Σ Increase: ↑0.04%)
• Deaths: 615,263 (+106 [+210] | ΔW Change: ↓68.36% | Σ Increase: ↑0.03%)

According to your tracker, we crossed the 600,000 mark almost a month ago, on May 16. However, the media has been reporting that we just crossed that mark this week, and Congress held a ceremony on the steps of the U.S. Capitol yesterday to mourn over this milestone. They must be relying upon a different tracker than the one you've employed here. What explains this discrepancy?