COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[MATTROSE94]

Does anyone know if the vaccine is supposed to give lasting immunity, or if we’ll have to get a vaccine every year like the flu?

My gut feeling is that the COVID vaccine will be ineffective against the new strains of the disease, which might mean that we will have to deal with permanent lockdowns and millions of deaths per year until 2034 or 2035.

[MATTROSE94]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 1/27 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

Older Numbers (Hidden in spoiler mode to make the post more compact)

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

<Last Numbers for 3/26-3/28 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 3/29-4/4 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/5-4/11 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/12-4/18 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/19-4/25 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 4/26-5/2 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 5/3-5/9 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 5/10-5/16 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 5/17-5/23 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 5/24-5/30 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 5/31-6/6 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 6/7-6/13 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 6/14-6/20 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 6/21-6/27 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 6/28-7/4 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 7/5-7/11 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 7/12-7/18 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 7/19-7/25 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 7/26-8/1 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 8/2-8/8 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 8/9-8/15 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 8/16-8/22 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 8/23-8/29 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 8/30-9/5 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 9/6-9/12 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 9/13-9/19 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 9/20-9/26 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 9/27-10/3 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 10/4-10/10 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 10/11-10/17 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 10/18-10/24 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 10/25-10/31 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 11/1-11/7 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 11/8-11/14 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 11/15-11/21 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 11/22-11/28 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 11/29-12/5 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 12/6-12/12 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 12/13-12/19 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 12/20-12/26 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 12/27-1/2 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 1/3-1/9 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 1/10-1/16 in this Post>

1/17: <Sunday>

• Cases: 24,482,050 (+176,007 | ΔW Change: ↓19.04% | Σ Increase: ↑0.72%)
• Deaths: 407,202 (+1,941 | ΔW Change: ↑8.13% | Σ Increase: ↑0.48%)

1/18: <M>

• Cases: 24,626,376 (+144,326 | ΔW Change: ↓36.10% | Σ Increase: ↑0.59%)
• Deaths: 408,620 (+1,418 | ΔW Change: ↓28.17% | Σ Increase: ↑0.35%)

1/19: <T>

• Cases: 24,806,964 (+180,588 | ΔW Change: ↓19.75% | Σ Increase: ↑0.73%)
• Deaths: 411,486 (+2,866 | ΔW Change: ↓34.11% | Σ Increase: ↑0.70%)

1/20: <W>

• Cases: 24,998,975 (+192,011 | ΔW Change: ↓22.61% | Σ Increase: ↑0.77%)
• Deaths: 415,894 (+4,408 | ΔW Change: ↑1.82% | Σ Increase: ↑1.07%)

1/21: <Þ>

• Cases: 25,196,086 (+197,111 | ΔW Change: ↓15.06% | Σ Increase: ↑0.79%)
• Deaths: 420,285 (+4,391 | ΔW Change: ↑7.99% | Σ Increase: ↑1.06%)

1/22: <F>

• Cases: 25,390,042 (+193,956 | ΔW Change: ↓23.65% | Σ Increase: ↑0.77%)
• Deaths: 424,177 (+3,892 | ΔW Change: ↑0.78% | Σ Increase: ↑0.93%)

1/23: <S>

• Cases: 25,566,789 (+176,747 | ΔW Change: ↓13.20% | Σ Increase: ↑0.82%)
• Deaths: 427,635 (+3,458 | ΔW Change: ↑1.56% | Σ Increase: ↑0.82%)

1/24: <Sunday>

• Cases: 25,702,125 (+135,336 | ΔW Change: ↓23.11% | Σ Increase: ↑0.53%)
• Deaths: 429,490 (+1,855 | ΔW Change: ↓4.43% | Σ Increase: ↑0.43%)

1/25: <M>

• Cases: 25,861,597 (+159,472 | ΔW Change: ↑10.49% | Σ Increase: ↑0.62%)
• Deaths: 431,392 (+1,902 | ΔW Change: ↑34.13% | Σ Increase: ↑0.44%)

1/26 (Yesterday): <T>

• Cases: 26,011,222 (+149,625 | ΔW Change: ↓17.15% | Σ Increase: ↑0.58%)
• Deaths: 435,452 (+4,060 | ΔW Change: ↑41.66% | Σ Increase: ↑0.94%)

1/27 (Today): <W>

• Cases: 26,166,201 (+154,979 | ΔW Change: ↓19.29% | Σ Increase: ↑0.60%)
• Deaths: 439,517 (+4,065 | ΔW Change: ↓7.78% | Σ Increase: ↑0.93%)

Looks like the numbers are starting to drop. Maybe the vaccines are already having a small impact after all.

[MATTROSE94]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 1/27 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

Older Numbers (Hidden in spoiler mode to make the post more compact)

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

<Last Numbers for 3/26-3/28 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 3/29-4/4 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/5-4/11 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/12-4/18 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/19-4/25 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 4/26-5/2 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 5/3-5/9 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 5/10-5/16 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 5/17-5/23 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 5/24-5/30 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 5/31-6/6 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 6/7-6/13 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 6/14-6/20 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 6/21-6/27 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 6/28-7/4 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 7/5-7/11 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 7/12-7/18 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 7/19-7/25 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 7/26-8/1 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 8/2-8/8 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 8/9-8/15 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 8/16-8/22 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 8/23-8/29 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 8/30-9/5 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 9/6-9/12 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 9/13-9/19 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 9/20-9/26 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 9/27-10/3 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 10/4-10/10 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 10/11-10/17 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 10/18-10/24 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 10/25-10/31 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 11/1-11/7 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 11/8-11/14 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 11/15-11/21 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 11/22-11/28 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 11/29-12/5 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 12/6-12/12 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 12/13-12/19 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 12/20-12/26 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 12/27-1/2 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 1/3-1/9 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 1/10-1/16 in this Post>

1/17: <Sunday>

• Cases: 24,482,050 (+176,007 | ΔW Change: ↓19.04% | Σ Increase: ↑0.72%)
• Deaths: 407,202 (+1,941 | ΔW Change: ↑8.13% | Σ Increase: ↑0.48%)

1/18: <M>

• Cases: 24,626,376 (+144,326 | ΔW Change: ↓36.10% | Σ Increase: ↑0.59%)
• Deaths: 408,620 (+1,418 | ΔW Change: ↓28.17% | Σ Increase: ↑0.35%)

1/19: <T>

• Cases: 24,806,964 (+180,588 | ΔW Change: ↓19.75% | Σ Increase: ↑0.73%)
• Deaths: 411,486 (+2,866 | ΔW Change: ↓34.11% | Σ Increase: ↑0.70%)

1/20: <W>

• Cases: 24,998,975 (+192,011 | ΔW Change: ↓22.61% | Σ Increase: ↑0.77%)
• Deaths: 415,894 (+4,408 | ΔW Change: ↑1.82% | Σ Increase: ↑1.07%)

1/21: <Þ>

• Cases: 25,196,086 (+197,111 | ΔW Change: ↓15.06% | Σ Increase: ↑0.79%)
• Deaths: 420,285 (+4,391 | ΔW Change: ↑7.99% | Σ Increase: ↑1.06%)

1/22: <F>

• Cases: 25,390,042 (+193,956 | ΔW Change: ↓23.65% | Σ Increase: ↑0.77%)
• Deaths: 424,177 (+3,892 | ΔW Change: ↑0.78% | Σ Increase: ↑0.93%)

1/23: <S>

• Cases: 25,566,789 (+176,747 | ΔW Change: ↓13.20% | Σ Increase: ↑0.82%)
• Deaths: 427,635 (+3,458 | ΔW Change: ↑1.56% | Σ Increase: ↑0.82%)

1/24: <Sunday>

• Cases: 25,702,125 (+135,336 | ΔW Change: ↓23.11% | Σ Increase: ↑0.53%)
• Deaths: 429,490 (+1,855 | ΔW Change: ↓4.43% | Σ Increase: ↑0.43%)

1/25: <M>

• Cases: 25,861,597 (+159,472 | ΔW Change: ↑10.49% | Σ Increase: ↑0.62%)
• Deaths: 431,392 (+1,902 | ΔW Change: ↑34.13% | Σ Increase: ↑0.44%)

1/26 (Yesterday): <T>

• Cases: 26,011,222 (+149,625 | ΔW Change: ↓17.15% | Σ Increase: ↑0.58%)
• Deaths: 435,452 (+4,060 | ΔW Change: ↑41.66% | Σ Increase: ↑0.94%)

1/27 (Today): <W>

• Cases: 26,166,201 (+154,979 | ΔW Change: ↓19.29% | Σ Increase: ↑0.60%)
• Deaths: 439,517 (+4,065 | ΔW Change: ↓7.78% | Σ Increase: ↑0.93%)

Looks like the numbers are starting to drop. Maybe the vaccines are already having a small impact after all.

There's some speculation about that, and it's not clear that that's the case... the rates are still too low (especially folks with a second dose). However, one thing the vaccines might be doing is driving people to change their behavior: if people know a vaccine is coming - like, pretty urgently, about to arrive! - they might change their behavior so they don't get sick when they know they won't have to wait forever to get away from it.

Not to mention that we're now getting further and further away from holidays that we feel required to be around others for! Although the fact there's not major holidays in January can't explain everything. Some part of it is probably some touches of herd immunity, but, again, that can't explain everything either - rates are dropping almost everywhere, regardless of previous prevalence.

I agree. I noticed that since the end of November in my county, mask wearing rates have jumped to about 99% and a lot of he opposition to COVID mitigation efforts has diminished. There was a spike after the holidays in terms of cases, but it seems to be leveling out. On the other hand, deaths seem to be rising due to the 4-6 week lag between exposure, diagnosis, and death.

[MATTROSE94]

We've had our fill of events that aren't scheduled for months from now being canceled already. Bunbury in Cincinnati wasn't scheduled until June, and they already decreed a few weeks ago that it would be canceled. The baseball opening day parade is canceled 2 years in a row.

With the vaccine out now, there is absolutely no reason to be canceling events that far into the future. None.

I don’t agree. I think that a permanent lockdown is necessary for the foreseeable future even once we hit heard immunity due to variants in COVID that may occur. It would be terrible for all the progress that has made combating the disease to be erased due to a new variant.

[MATTROSE94]

I don’t agree. I think that a permanent lockdown is necessary for the foreseeable future even once we hit heard immunity due to variants in COVID that may occur. It would be terrible for all the progress that has made combating the disease to be erased due to a new variant.

I don't know whether this post is serious or a joke.

It seems that the newer strains are going to ultimately make the vaccines useless, which will require a permanent lockdown to prevent hospitals from being overrun. A permanent lockdown can be implemented through pol use such as full income replacement for individuals who cannot work from home, strict stay at home orders, distributions of food, medicine, and necessary supplies to all people by the military, and strict punishments for people who disobey lockdowns. That is the only way to get COVID under control, though it may take 15 years to ultimately do so.

[MATTROSE94]

Cancelling something in June seems a bit premature. But it's possible the new strains may swamp progress made with from the vaccines, so we may be dealing with cancellations for a while.

The strains shouldn't be considered anything unusual. This virus is mutating slower than the flu, and several news reports say the vaccine is just as effective with these new strains.

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2021/01/28/961758633/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-effective-but-less-so-against-variant-in-south-africa

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00183-5/fulltext

[MATTROSE94]

Cancelling something in June seems a bit premature. But it's possible the new strains may swamp progress made with from the vaccines, so we may be dealing with cancellations for a while.

The strains shouldn't be considered anything unusual. This virus is mutating slower than the flu, and several news reports say the vaccine is just as effective with these new strains.

I'm not saying the vaccines won't be effective against them.

It is also possible that the new strains will infect people at a much higher rate than the vaccines are adminstered.

[MATTROSE94]

Yeah that's the problem. How much more contagious they are.

I would guess at least 50-75% more contagious. That will increase the rate of transmission and the rate of death. Even if we administer 2 million vaccine dosages per day by March, we could have 5-10 million cases per day.

[MATTROSE94]

Don't know about that much, but I wouldn't be surprised to see another large peak.

A lot of medical experts are saying we are due for one more peak in COVID at least that will last from March into probably July or August that will make the other peaks look extremely minor in comparison.

[MATTROSE94]

Nate makes a good point here.  The goal is not to eradicate COVID completely, which is probably impossible, but to control it to a level that the world can handle with a minimal amount of disruption, much like we do with the flu.

Yet the United States seems to have adopted a "zero covid" approach. Most states haven't lifted restrictions since the vaccine began being issued.

I don’t agree with a “zero covid” approach, but it’s still way too early in the vaccintion process to start lifting restrictions.  This should be done once the majority of the vulnerable population has been fully vaccinated, which is probably 6-8 weeks away.

I am thinking that the one thing to bring COVID down to nothing is to implement a nationwide 100 day lockdown during the vaccination process. That would prevent the new variants from surging and keep the progress that has been made with vaccination thus far. The strict lockdown approach worked pretty good in China and initially worked well in Europe, but the governments there left their guard down too soon.

[MATTROSE94]

The number of currently hospitalized in the U.S. just crashed below 100,000. It's down to 97,561.

That the lowest since November. Hopefully we can get it down to below 10,000 or 25,000.

[MATTROSE94]

I don't think masks are going away anytime this year. And if SARS-CoV-2 becomes endemic (as is expected now) like the cold and flu, it's quite likely mask-wearing will become the cultural norm, especially and particularly during flare-ups. That doesn't mean shutdowns. It just means wear your mask, wash your hands, and use common sense. The rest of the world is going to have to take a page from Asian countries on that one. That's not a bad thing though.

Maybe they'll still be required in places like airports, congregate care facilities, doctor's offices, & the like, but even though mask-wearing would obviously still be beneficial in such a circumstance from a public health perspective, it's naive to believe that peer pressure & ridicule won't kill masks - at least here in the U.S. - as soon as the general public has gotten their vaccine & they feel safe once again. Remember: if the irresponsible didn't care about it during the pandemic, then they sure as hell won't be caring about it after either.

I would hope you're wrong about that. Maybe I am naïve, but I can't remember the last time I've seen someone in public without a mask. These mandates have been in place for a long time now in most places. It's really one of the easiest parts of dealing with this too. Vaccines aren't going to return us to where we were before the pandemic. As I said, if it becomes endemic as many believe, maybe mask-wearing in public will have to return during certain flare-ups like during winter. It also has the added bonus of generally protecting people from the cold and flu as well.

Try living in a (non-Atlas) red state.

Or even a purple one.  I went to the grocery store this morning and there were three people shopping without masks, despite the big MASKS REQUIRED sign at the entrance.

In north GA...I personally know more than one person who flat out refuses to wear masks, even if stores require them.

Most of the stores that "require" them won't enforce their own rules, so the idiots get away with it.  From my understanding, Publix, Kroger, and Walmart (three of the largest grocery and superstores in the area) won't ask maskless customers to leave.

The last maskless person I ever saw was at my local Walmart on December 26. It was a middle age Hispanic guy who was wearing a MAGA hat and a “Stop the Steal” t-shirt.

[MATTROSE94]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 1/30 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

Older Numbers (Hidden in spoiler mode to make the post more compact)

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

<Last Numbers for 3/26-3/28 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 3/29-4/4 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/5-4/11 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/12-4/18 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/19-4/25 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 4/26-5/2 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 5/3-5/9 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 5/10-5/16 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 5/17-5/23 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 5/24-5/30 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 5/31-6/6 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 6/7-6/13 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 6/14-6/20 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 6/21-6/27 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 6/28-7/4 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 7/5-7/11 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 7/12-7/18 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 7/19-7/25 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 7/26-8/1 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 8/2-8/8 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 8/9-8/15 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 8/16-8/22 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 8/23-8/29 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 8/30-9/5 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 9/6-9/12 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 9/13-9/19 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 9/20-9/26 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 9/27-10/3 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 10/4-10/10 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 10/11-10/17 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 10/18-10/24 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 10/25-10/31 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 11/1-11/7 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 11/8-11/14 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 11/15-11/21 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 11/22-11/28 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 11/29-12/5 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 12/6-12/12 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 12/13-12/19 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 12/20-12/26 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 12/27-1/2 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 1/3-1/9 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 1/10-1/16 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 1/17-1/23 in this Post>

1/24: <Sunday>

• Cases: 25,702,125 (+135,336 | ΔW Change: ↓23.11% | Σ Increase: ↑0.53%)
• Deaths: 429,490 (+1,855 | ΔW Change: ↓4.43% | Σ Increase: ↑0.43%)

1/25: <M>

• Cases: 25,861,597 (+159,472 | ΔW Change: ↑10.49% | Σ Increase: ↑0.62%)
• Deaths: 431,392 (+1,902 | ΔW Change: ↑34.13% | Σ Increase: ↑0.44%)

1/26: <T>

• Cases: 26,011,222 (+149,625 | ΔW Change: ↓17.15% | Σ Increase: ↑0.58%)
• Deaths: 435,452 (+4,060 | ΔW Change: ↑41.66% | Σ Increase: ↑0.94%)

1/27: <W>

• Cases: 26,166,201 (+154,979 | ΔW Change: ↓19.29% | Σ Increase: ↑0.60%)
• Deaths: 439,517 (+4,065 | ΔW Change: ↓7.78% | Σ Increase: ↑0.93%)

1/28: <Þ>

• Cases: 26,338,607 (+172,406 | ΔW Change: ↓12.53% | Σ Increase: ↑0.66%)
• Deaths: 443,769 (+4,252 | ΔW Change: ↓3.17% | Σ Increase: ↑0.97%)

1/29: <F>

• Cases: 26,512,193 (+173,586 | ΔW Change: ↓10.50% | Σ Increase: ↑0.66%)
• Deaths: 447,459 (+3,690 | ΔW Change: ↓5.19% | Σ Increase: ↑0.83%)

1/30 (Yesterday): <S>

• Cases: 26,665,740 (+153,547 | ΔW Change: ↓13.13% | Σ Increase: ↑0.58%)
• Deaths: 450,381 (+2,922 | ΔW Change: ↓15.50% | Σ Increase: ↑0.65%)

1/31 (Today): <Sunday>

• Cases: 26,767,229 (+101,489 | ΔW Change: ↓25.01% | Σ Increase: ↑0.38%)
• Deaths: 452,279 (+1,898 | ΔW Change: ↑2.32% | Σ Increase: ↑0.42%)

101,489 is probably the lowest number of cases since October. I fear it is the calm before the storm however, and feel that case might jump to 100 times that in a few weeks once the new variants and reinfections increase.

[MATTROSE94]

Even as the number of new cases has been on a steady and sometimes sharp decline over the last couple of weeks, the mortality number has been surprisingly stubborn in declining consistently; even if it is a lagging indicator, it seems to be breaking off from previous trends and remaining at or around its peak numbers.

Does anyone knows what's going on? Are cases being under reported? Are new strains of COVID more deadly?

Deaths usually lag about 3-6 weeks behind initial diagnosis with COVID.

[MATTROSE94]

The deaths are dropping now. The peak of the 7-day average was Jan. 26 when it was 3405. Now it's already down to 3124.

That is because cases started to drop a week or two ago. Less cases=less deaths. We will probably be down to 2,000 deaths per day in about a month or two, though the new variants may change things for the worse.

[MATTROSE94]

The number of new cases is going down.

Great news! The farmers are getting the blizzards that their crops need in Michigan, driving conditions are getting hazardous, and people won't be out and about spreading COVID-19.

Deaths from COVID-19 are a lagging indicator, although they remain a tragedy. The Grim Reaper has taken more lives in America now than the population of Miami (42nd-largest city in the USA) from COVID-19 alone.

Wear the d@mn mask if you do go out! 

Maybe the vaccines are starting to help, though I think we are going to experience a very potent wave in a few weeks due to the variants (which are vaccine-resistant, can reinfect people, and have a much higher mortality rate).

[MATTROSE94]

The number of new cases is going down.

Great news! The farmers are getting the blizzards that their crops need in Michigan, driving conditions are getting hazardous, and people won't be out and about spreading COVID-19.

Deaths from COVID-19 are a lagging indicator, although they remain a tragedy. The Grim Reaper has taken more lives in America now than the population of Miami (42nd-largest city in the USA) from COVID-19 alone.

Wear the d@mn mask if you do go out! 

Maybe the vaccines are starting to help, though I think we are going to experience a very potent wave in a few weeks due to the variants (which are vaccine-resistant, can reinfect people, and have a much higher mortality rate).

I'm in awe at your ability to pack three different pieces of misinformation in one short parenthetical section.

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2021/02/new-variant-covid-findings-fuel-more-worries-about-vaccine-resistance

https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/23/health/uk-variant-cdc-review/index.html

https://www.radio.com/news/fauci-high-rate-of-covid-reinfection-if-variants-dominate

[MATTROSE94]

The number of new cases is going down.

Great news! The farmers are getting the blizzards that their crops need in Michigan, driving conditions are getting hazardous, and people won't be out and about spreading COVID-19.

Deaths from COVID-19 are a lagging indicator, although they remain a tragedy. The Grim Reaper has taken more lives in America now than the population of Miami (42nd-largest city in the USA) from COVID-19 alone.

Wear the d@mn mask if you do go out!  

Maybe the vaccines are starting to help, though I think we are going to experience a very potent wave in a few weeks due to the variants (which are vaccine-resistant, can reinfect people, and have a much higher mortality rate).

The Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are 95% effective. Even with a loss of effectiveness due to new strains, it should still at least be 80% effective. The idea that new variants are going to make the vaccines useless is fear mongering.

Some of the data I have read mentions that the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are only 66-72% effective against the UK strain and only 49-57% effective against the South African and Brazilian strains. With how much COVID has spread worldwide over the past year, there are likely thousands of other variants as well, which could be a problem for the vaccines.

[MATTROSE94]

The number of new cases is going down.

Great news! The farmers are getting the blizzards that their crops need in Michigan, driving conditions are getting hazardous, and people won't be out and about spreading COVID-19.

Deaths from COVID-19 are a lagging indicator, although they remain a tragedy. The Grim Reaper has taken more lives in America now than the population of Miami (42nd-largest city in the USA) from COVID-19 alone.

Wear the d@mn mask if you do go out!  

Maybe the vaccines are starting to help, though I think we are going to experience a very potent wave in a few weeks due to the variants (which are vaccine-resistant, can reinfect people, and have a much higher mortality rate).

The Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are 95% effective. Even with a loss of effectiveness due to new strains, it should still at least be 80% effective. The idea that new variants are going to make the vaccines useless is fear mongering.

Some of the data I have read mentions that the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are only 66-72% effective against the UK strain and only 49-57% effective against the South African and Brazilian strains. With how much COVID has spread worldwide over the past year, there are likely thousands of other variants as well, which could be a problem for the vaccines.

Pfizer is just as good against the UK strain as it is the orginal strain.

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/israel-pfizer-vaccine-effective-covid-u-k-strain-1.9507594

Even if you look at the SA strain, people that have been vaccinated my get Covid but are not dying and are not even being hospitlized. They are limiting severe disease very well.

The UK strain has been in the US for well over a month now....Where is the uncontrolled spread? In states like CO where it was first found, Covid is trending down which to me seems kind of odd of it is as contagious as they say.

Thanks for the clarification! I am definitely a COVID doomer and fear the spread of the disease. It seems that media sources such as CNN, MSNBC, and online blogs are giving into hysteria by always mentioning the COVID strains.

[MATTROSE94]

So, when can we expect cases/deaths to drop to a level we can probably start safely holding in person indoor events again?

Probably either in May or June or possibly never again depending on the COVID variants and the voracity of their spread.

According to the Bloomberg vaccine tracker if we keep vaccinating at the same rate we are now ( which is unlikely it will probably continue to increase) we'll hit 75% completely vaccinated in early December which will be enough for stuff to go to relative normality according to Fauci.
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/
We're currently giving 1.4 million vaccine doses a day the goal according to Fauci is to get it to about 2 to 2.5 million a day which would considerably speed it up but probably still won't be till Late October early to mid-November.
Once we hit around like 55 to 60% vaccinated we'll have enough for a low amount of herd immunity and that will probably be in July or August is when we hit most things will be able to open up but people will still likely have to wear masks and social distance. But as Matt Rose said if stuff with the variants gets worse it will be delayed until the third booster shot is available to be distributed.
I'm really hopeful about the way things are looking I know we still got several months ahead of us but the light is at the end of the tunnel. My mom just got vaccinated last week and since I'm back to work I'm in the next tier of people who can be vaccinated so I should get my shot late this month or early March.

I agree 100% with your post. I am part of the 1C group in New Jersey (I work in the legal field and have some minor comorbidities such as Gastroesophageal reflux disease), so I should be able to get the vaccine in April or May. The good news is that the South African variant is not expected to gain much of a foothold in the US for at least a while and the UK variant seems to respond well to the vaccines we already have.  Reinfections might become an issue however, as I read that people who are reinfected with COVID have a higher mortality rate.

[MATTROSE94]

As we have seen in Iowa, some states are completely opening things up already.  And there's going to be huge political pressure to open up everywhere in about two months once we have completed Phase 1 and all vulnerable people and essential workers have had the opportunity to be vaccinated.  At that point, deaths will likely drop to less than 10% of what we are seeing now, and there will really be no reason not to open up at least among people who have been vaccinated.

Fauci said on Meet the Press on Sunday that once J&J is approved, he expects vaccine supply will be able to fully meet demand by April.  And we have contracts to supply enough doses of Pfizer and Moderna alone to vaccinate 300 million people (more than the age 12+ population of the US) by July.

I am thinking that a lot of the governors in the South and Mountian west will probably start to open up in March, though governors such as Phil Murphy, Andrew Cuomo, Larry Hogan, Phil Scott, Charlie Baker, J. B. Pritzker, Gretchen Whitmer, and Gavin Newsome might delay large-scale reopenings until July or August if I had to guess. They might even delay some reopenings until early 2022 as well depending on the voracity of the COVID variants.

[MATTROSE94]

To be honest, I’d be OK opening up if we are consistently below 10k new cases nationally. I mean, we’ve done all we can at this point.

It would probably be 5,000 cases per day for me. 10,000 cases per day I would still keep some restrictions in place such as 75% or 80% capacity restrictions.

[MATTROSE94]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 6/1 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE:What's the overall change in the total?

Brackets []: These represent the total change for the day, including backlogged reports, if any.

• These numbers are inflated relative to the actual reports for the day, so they are not used to calculate the comparative percentage shifts.

Older Numbers (Hidden in spoiler mode to make the post more compact)

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

<Last Numbers for 3/26-3/28 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 3/29-4/4 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/5-4/11 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/12-4/18 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/19-4/25 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 4/26-5/2 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 5/3-5/9 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 5/10-5/16 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 5/17-5/23 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 5/24-5/30 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 5/31-6/6 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 6/7-6/13 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 6/14-6/20 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 6/21-6/27 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 6/28-7/4 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 7/5-7/11 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 7/12-7/18 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 7/19-7/25 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 7/26-8/1 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 8/2-8/8 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 8/9-8/15 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 8/16-8/22 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 8/23-8/29 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 8/30-9/5 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 9/6-9/12 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 9/13-9/19 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 9/20-9/26 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 9/27-10/3 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 10/4-10/10 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 10/11-10/17 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 10/18-10/24 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 10/25-10/31 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 11/1-11/7 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 11/8-11/14 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 11/15-11/21 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 11/22-11/28 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 11/29-12/5 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 12/6-12/12 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 12/13-12/19 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 12/20-12/26 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 12/27-1/2 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 1/3-1/9 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 1/10-1/16 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 1/17-1/23 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 1/24-1/30 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 1/31-2/6 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 2/7-2/13 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 2/14-2/20 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 2/21-2/27 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 2/28-3/6 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 3/7-3-13 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 3/14-3-20 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 3/21-3/27 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 3/28-4/3 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 4/4-4/10 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 4/11-4/17 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 4/18-4/24 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 4/25-5/1 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 5/2-5/8 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 5/9-5/15 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 5/16-5/22 in this Post>

5/23: <Sunday>

• Cases: 33,896,381 (+14,048 | ΔW Change: ↓21.23% | Σ Increase: ↑0.04%)
• Deaths: 604,087 (+211 | ΔW Change: ↓25.70% | Σ Increase: ↑0.03%)

5/24: <M>

• Cases: 33,922,937 (+19,866 [+26,556] | ΔW Change: ↓20.63% | Σ Increase: ↑0.08%)
• Deaths: 604,416 (+329 | ΔW Change: ↓10.84% | Σ Increase: ↑0.05%)

5/25: <T>

• Cases: 33,947,189 (+24,252 | ΔW Change: ↓11.83% | Σ Increase: ↑0.07%)
• Deaths: 605,208 (+669 [+792] | ΔW Change: ↓16.06% | Σ Increase: ↑0.13%)

5/26: <W>

• Cases: 33,971,207 (+24,018 | ΔW Change: ↓7.92% | Σ Increase: ↑0.07%)
• Deaths: 606,179 (+668 [+971] | ΔW Change: ↑16.06% | Σ Increase: ↑0.16%)

5/27: <Þ>

• Cases: 33,999,680 (+24,393 [+28,473] | ΔW Change: ↓20.95% | Σ Increase: ↑0.08%)
• Deaths: 607,726 (+630 [+1,547] | ΔW Change: ↓5.55% | Σ Increase: ↑0.26%)

5/28: <F>

• Cases: 34,022,386 (+22,706 | ΔW Change: ↓22.29% | Σ Increase: ↑0.07%)
• Deaths: 608,956 (+669 [+1,230] | ΔW Change: ↑1.83% | Σ Increase: ↑0.20%)

5/29: <S>

• Cases: 34,034,946 (+12,560 | ΔW Change: ↓37.00% | Σ Increase: ↑0.04%)
• Deaths: 609,420 (+464 | ΔW Change: ↓0.85% | Σ Increase: ↑0.08%)

5/30: <Sunday>

• Cases: 34,043,068 (+7,750 [+8,122] | ΔW Change: ↓44.83% | Σ Increase: ↑0.02%)
• Deaths: 609,544 (+124 | ΔW Change: ↓41.23% | Σ Increase: ↑0.02%)

5/31 (Yesterday-Holiday): <M>

• Cases: 34,113,146 (+8,135 [+70,078] | ΔW Change: ↓59.05% | Σ Increase: ↑0.21%)
• Deaths: 609,767 (+132 [+223] | ΔW Change: ↓59.88% | Σ Increase: ↑0.04%)

6/1 (Today): <T>

• Cases: 34,136,738 (+12,976 [+23,592] | ΔW Change: ↓46.50% | Σ Increase: ↑0.07%)
• Deaths: 610,432 (+287 [+665] | ΔW Change: ↓57.10% | Σ Increase: ↑0.11%)

Looks like those numbers are actually coming down. I did the research and the pandemic started to effect me, and everyone that I know around March 15. I think there were 2000 cases on that day. At this rate, its reasonable that by sometime in July, we could be down to that level... or maybe not.

What would you consider  typical of an outcome where COVID has become endemic to the community but the risk is to any one person is small enough that we can consider this the "end" of the pandemic?

For me, I would say that the pandemic began on March 11, 2020, as that was the day that my in person schooling and all the events I liked forward to in 2020 were cancelled. I honestly don’t think that the US will get to zero COVID cases, but I would say once cases get down to the sub-10,000 range and deaths go below 500 per day we will really start to see a dramatic improvement.

[MATTROSE94]

If this would get black people to get COVID-19 vaccines, I would do it.

I would dress up in a Klan robe and tell black people that COVID-19 serves my dream of exterminating a large number of black people so that they can never vote. Right in front of a burning cross.

what

I usually agree with pbrower2a, but the post by him is very weird and disturbing.

[MATTROSE94]

If this would get black people to get COVID-19 vaccines, I would do it.

I would dress up in a Klan robe and tell black people that COVID-19 serves my dream of exterminating a large number of black people so that they can never vote. Right in front of a burning cross.

what

I usually agree with pbrower2a, but the post by him is very weird and disturbing.

I intend it to be disturbing. I have compared the deaths of American soldiers in war against Hitler and Tojo in scale to the deaths from COVID-19, too. Mass death through any source must appall us.

If that's what it takes... blacks live matter, and COVID-19 is a far greater risk than the KKK or police brutality. COVID-19 is an equal-opportunity... destroyer!  

I agree with your logic now. COVID has disproportionately impacted African Americans and Hispanic Americans and shows no signs of slowing down in their communities. The best solution in my opinion is to maybe reinstitute permanent mask mandates and mandate the vaccine for all Americans (though the Supreme Court would easily strike down the latter option in a 5-4 decision with John Roberts joining the three liberal justices).