COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Some of today's posts have GOT to be S***posting.

The MRNA vaccines are a miracle. They've already been able to patch them to turn them into vaccines to completely different diseases. If a variant starts breaking through, they'll do the same and put out a booster.

[MATTROSE94]

Some of today's posts have GOT to be S***posting.

The MRNA vaccines are a miracle. They've already been able to patch them to turn them into vaccines to completely different diseases. If a variant starts breaking through, they'll do the same and put out a booster.

Look up Eric Feigl-Ding to know the truth about what's going on with the Delta Variant. It is terrifying even for those who are vaccinated,

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Some of today's posts have GOT to be S***posting.

The MRNA vaccines are a miracle. They've already been able to patch them to turn them into vaccines to completely different diseases. If a variant starts breaking through, they'll do the same and put out a booster.

Look up Eric Feigl-Ding to know the truth about what's going on with the Delta Variant. It is terrifying even for those who are vaccinated,

Eric Feigl-Ding is a crackpot fearmongering grifter who doesn't know when the grift is over. Very similar trajectory to Sarah Kendzior, who gave us several years of compelling if alarmist anti-Trump commentary, and then transitioned to talking about how Biden and Garland are obviously in league with Trump and American democracy has already fallen.

[soundchaser]

Feigl-Ding is not an infectious diseases epidemiologist, and he should not be considered an expert on the subject. Listen to people who know what they’re talking about instead.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 6/23 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE:What's the overall change in the total?

Brackets []: These represent the total change for the day, including backlogged reports, if any.

• These numbers are inflated relative to the actual reports for the day, so they are not used to calculate the comparative percentage shifts.

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6/13: <Sunday>

• Cases: 34,321,093 (+5,226 | ΔW Change: ↓18.45% | Σ Increase: ↑0.02%)
• Deaths: 615,053 (+16 | ΔW Change: ↓90.36% | Σ Increase: ↑0.00%)

6/14: <M>

• Cases: 34,334,299 (+7,310 [+13,206] | ΔW Change: ↓40.49% | Σ Increase: ↑0.04%)
• Deaths: 615,263 (+106 [+210] | ΔW Change: ↓68.36% | Σ Increase: ↑0.03%)

6/15: <T>

• Cases: 34,351,363 (+11,884 [+17,064] | ΔW Change: ↓12.24% | Σ Increase: ↑0.05%)
• Deaths: 615,703 (+341 [+440] | ΔW Change: ↓2.85% | Σ Increase: ↑0.07%)

6/16: <W>

• Cases: 34,365,327 (+12,757 [+13,964] | ΔW Change: ↓10.17% | Σ Increase: ↑0.04%)
• Deaths: 616,141 (+352 [+438] | ΔW Change: ↓20.36% | Σ Increase: ↑0.07%)

6/17: <Þ>

• Cases: 34,376,793 (+11,466 | ΔW Change: ↑7.06% | Σ Increase: ↑0.03%)
• Deaths: 616,423 (+282 | ΔW Change: ↓31.55% | Σ Increase: ↑0.05%)

6/18: <F>

• Cases: 34,393,269 (+13,389 [+16,476] | ΔW Change: ↓15.94% | Σ Increase: ↑0.05%)
• Deaths: 616,920 (+393 [+497] | ΔW Change: ↓6.65% | Σ Increase: ↑0.08%)

6/19: <S>

• Cases: 34,401,712 (+8,443 | ΔW Change: ↓11.93% | Σ Increase: ↑0.02%)
• Deaths: 617,083 (+163 | ΔW Change: ↓46.56% | Σ Increase: ↑0.03%)

6/20 (Holiday): <Sunday>

• Cases: 34,406,001 (+4,289 | ΔW Change: ↓17.93% | Σ Increase: ↑0.01%)
• Deaths: 617,166 (+83 | ΔW Change: ↑418.75% | Σ Increase: ↑0.01%)

6/21: <M>

• Cases: 34,419,838 (+6,609 [+13,837] | ΔW Change: ↓9.59% | Σ Increase: ↑0.04%)
• Deaths: 617,463 (+121 [+297] | ΔW Change: ↑14.15% | Σ Increase: ↑0.05%)

6/22 (Yesterday): <T>

• Cases: 34,433,696 (+9,898 [+13,858] | ΔW Change: ↓16.71% | Σ Increase: ↑0.04%)
• Deaths: 617,864 (+335 [+401] | ΔW Change: ↓1.76% | Σ Increase: ↑0.06%)

6/23 (Today): <W>

• Cases: 34,449,004 (+12,942 [+15,308] | ΔW Change: ↑1.45% | Σ Increase: ↑0.04%)
• Deaths: 618,294 (+326 [+430] | ΔW Change: ↓7.39% | Σ Increase: ↑0.07%)

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I don't think MATTROSE94 is serious. But Eric Feigl-Ding is an absolute charlatan.

[pbrower2a]

My prediction is that there'll be another wave thanks to the deplorables refusing to get vaccinated. This one will be the worst one.

Not. My. Problem. Anymore.

I got both doses of Pfizer months ago, and if they issue new lockdowns and mask mandates, they're just going to have to cram it. What was the point of getting vaccinated if we can't go right back to normal life right away?

I'm also fully vaccinated with Pfizer, but if enough people continue to get the virus, we'll have a mutation that evades vaccines completely. Trumpers are going to let this happen just to own the libs.

Again, are you aware that one mutation alone typically doesn’t make immunity disappear.
It’s more likely to be a progressive decline as more mutations add on.
And for all the talk about the anti vaxxers, they are not going to be the source of new mutations.
Really, the anti vaxxers may not be so terrible long term. The vaccines those morons won’t use will overtime be distributed to lesser developed countries with far lower vaccination rates, and those needles will go a lot further there than here.

Any person who contracts COVID-19 can spread it. Anyone who contracts it can be the host for a virus that can mutate into something more contagious or even damaging -- and perhaps capable of circumventing the extant vaccines. Those who are capable of getting vaccinated and do not have no excuse for something unconscionable.

Face it: the COVID-19 plague was a highly-unpleasant, disruptive time, and should we get a new virus (let us say "COVID-22") that attacks people as COVID-19 did, then we are in for another bad time.

The vaccines going to other countries are nice, but inoculating more Americans will little reduce the supply to countries that most need the inoculations -- like Brazil, Peru, India, and South Africa. We have shown our ability to produce prodigious yields of vaccines.

We do not fully understand this virus and its future, or any possibility of it evolving into something that hits hard again.   

If things do worsen, it probably won’t be from the dumb anti-vaxxers.
Instead, it will be millions of working class citizens in developing nations who will unfortunately be the first carriers of new variants. As we see huge rises of Covid in Southern/Eastern/Central Africa, that region alarms me the most.

See above. I'm not saying that we cannot solve our own problem and a huge chunk of the world's problems too.

We are in a much better position than last year, and the use of MRNA vaccines means much quicker booster shot production. Perhaps if we streamline approval for emergency use, we could get these out quickly.

We had to short-circuit the usual delays. We are at war with a virus that has killed more Americans than Hitler and Tojo combined.

Additionally, production is slowly increasing as was expected. We are not out of the woods yet, and Covid will still be a news topic in five years, but we are making progress.

If we do things right, COVID-2019 will be a topic of history texts and otherwise "old news"

If you really are that scared of getting sick, go get a third shot ffs. I wouldn’t recommend it (and it could even be dangerous) unless you are literally a cancer patient who has discussed it with your doctor, but I have heard of people doing that in those rare situations.

Progress on inoculations, state by state

at least one inoculation:

red to green

under 40%  70% red
at least 40% but less than 45% 50% red
at least 45% but under 50%  30% red
at least 50% but under 55% 30% orange
at least 55% but under 60% yellow
at least 60% but under 65% 30% green
over 65% 70% green (! -- over 72% in Vermont)

Full inoculation

red to green

under 40%  70% red *UNDER 35% ** UNDER 30%
at least 40% but less than 45% 50% red
at least 45% but under 50%  30% red
at least 50% but under 55% 30% orange
at least 55% but under 60% yellow
at least 60% but under 65% 30% green
over 65% 70% green

(Mississippi, God damn!)

https://www.mayoclinic.org/coronavirus-covid-19/vaccine-tracker

as of 18 June 2021.

.....................

Mississippi never was high on the list of states that I wanted to visit, , but for now it is completely off my bucket list. I have often called New England the destination for the "tourist who does some thinking"... and this year, that could hardly be more true.

[Former President tack50]

Honestly at this point I think nature is deliberately trolling humanity with all the variants

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Honestly at this point I think nature is deliberately trolling humanity with all the variants

A more transmissible strains were expected from day 1. And usually less deadlier, albeit it seems not be the case with delta/alpha etc (not enough data to be sure though). The effectiveness of the vaccines are so far much better then expected.

Well... soon we'll have [much] more data.

[MATTROSE94]

I don't think MATTROSE94 is serious. But Eric Feigl-Ding is an absolute charlatan.

All of Eric Feigl-Ding‘s predictions about COVID were 100% correct, so it will be wise for all people to listen to him by continuing to wear high quality, multilayered masks  and by staying at home to stop the spread and flatten the curve.

[emailking]

I don't think there's any reason to think the variants will be less deadly when the death rate is so low and you're contagious for so long before you're debilitated. If there was like a 25% kill rate and within in a day or 2 of contracting, yeah there'd be selection pressure to to be less deadly.

[It’s so Joever]

Some of today's posts have GOT to be S***posting.

The MRNA vaccines are a miracle. They've already been able to patch them to turn them into vaccines to completely different diseases. If a variant starts breaking through, they'll do the same and put out a booster.

Correct.
Americans will be fine barring some awful developments.
It’s the people in low income countries who are f**ked and will continue to live in a perpetual cycle of disease for years to come.
Not that anyone on Atlas cares about them, just the reality.

[It’s so Joever]

I don't think MATTROSE94 is serious. But Eric Feigl-Ding is an absolute charlatan.

All of Eric Feigl-Ding‘s predictions about COVID were 100% correct, so it will be wise for all people to listen to him by continuing to wear high quality, multilayered masks  and by staying at home to stop the spread and flatten the curve.

Many of my predictions were correct.
Does that make me the world’s leading epidemiologist, or is it just that some things are pretty obvious if you are paying attention combined with a bit of “luck”!?

Lockdowns will not help us at this point, the countries which actually would receive a true benefit from lockdowns are already largely vaccinated. The countries where large outbreaks still are occurring simply can’t enforce lockdowns well. A mask campaign would be better for these places, although it won’t stop everything and not everyone has access to masks.

Additionally, some of our own biases will make us less likely to pay attention to the crisis in these places. Anecdotally, I was shocked when my usually data driven mother talked about how Africans were not going to be hit as hard because they are “less dense” and outdoors more. Point is, this is turning into another disease like polio. Yes we have the vaccine and adaptive technology to quickly change it for variants (literally the only thing stopping mass production of variant booster shots is the approval process) but we still won’t defeat Covid for a long time.

[It’s so Joever]

F**K
https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-50-of-delta-variant-cases-vaccinated-severe-2021-6

[soundchaser]

Read the article. As seems to be par for the course, the headline doesn’t give the full picture.

[Hammy]

Read the article. As seems to be par for the course, the headline doesn’t give the full picture.

I was thinking the same. Doesn't Israel have one of the highest vaccination rates of any country? To me this still indicates that the rate of vaccinated people, while higher than we'd like, is still a lot lower than the headline seems to want to imply.

[Horus]

Are we really doing this again lmao? If you're vaccinated, you're fine.

Go enjoy your summer.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Read the article. As seems to be par for the course, the headline doesn’t give the full picture.

I was thinking the same. Doesn't Israel have one of the highest vaccination rates of any country? To me this still indicates that the rate of vaccinated people, while higher than we'd like, is still a lot lower than the headline seems to want to imply.

The article said 57% of the Israeli population had been vaccinated.  I'm surprised it's this low.  I recall Israel hit 50% back in February, and it seems like they have basically stopped vaccinated ever since then.

[soundchaser]

One of the many reasons to be skeptical of Feigl-Ding's "reporting":

https://twitter.com/Ryan_Mac_Phd/status/1326505105106083842

In November of last year he was (and probably still is!) pushing a lie that COVID-19 can transmit through farts, and that we'd need N95 underwear.

He does not know what he's talking about. Stop listening to him.

[It’s so Joever]

I know Atlas doesn’t want to hear bad news ever, but 26 out of the 73 people who have died from the Delta variant in the UK being fully vaccinated is a bit concerning. This is not even a case of symptomatic cases...we are talking full on deaths, which one would think would be more likely to be prevented by vaccines, even with these variants.
It’s a very small sample size and we have other data demonstrating strong efficacy of these vaccines as well, but still, we shouldn’t just say everything’s all okay and great now because that’s what makes us feel better.
We need to keep an eye on Delta and learn more about it, and we really need more information on Delta Plus.

I know posters above want to live in lalaland because it’s fun (and I’m guilty of the opposite admittedly), but eventually they will have to grow up and understand reality isn’t so positive all the time.
There is still plenty of reason to be hopeful, and we can quickly adapt these MRNA vaccines if needed, but we are clearly not finished and won’t be for a while.

[soundchaser]

I know Atlas doesn’t want to hear bad news ever, but 26 out of the 73 people who have died from the Delta variant in the UK being fully vaccinated is a bit concerning. This is not even a case of symptomatic cases...we are talking full on deaths, which one would think would be more likely to be prevented by vaccines, even with these variants.

What vaccine did they have? AstraZeneca? Janssen? How old were they? Any underlying health conditions?

I know we've all gotten obsessed with raw numbers, but we need to remember that context is equally important. (And yes, we can keep an eye on the Delta variant. But keeping an eye on it doesn't mean grinding society to a halt again. That's just not justified this time.)

[It’s so Joever]

I know Atlas doesn’t want to hear bad news ever, but 26 out of the 73 people who have died from the Delta variant in the UK being fully vaccinated is a bit concerning. This is not even a case of symptomatic cases...we are talking full on deaths, which one would think would be more likely to be prevented by vaccines, even with these variants.

What vaccine did they have? AstraZeneca? Janssen? How old were they? Any underlying health conditions?

I know we've all gotten obsessed with raw numbers, but we need to remember that context is equally important. (And yes, we can keep an eye on the Delta variant. But keeping an eye on it doesn't mean grinding society to a halt again. That's just not justified this time.)

I agree we need that information, and currently that isn’t available.
Given the country, probably either Astrazeneca or Pfizer, but we don’t know. Same goes for age and health information, which is why I’m not going full doomer yet.
I would love more context, and do hope we get more stats and information.

And yeah I’m not advocating for shutting down our society, and Mattrose is a troll.
All I want is for people to understand that we are not out of the woods yet, and that it is possible that we may see some temporary setbacks in our progress. How we should respond to those setbacks is a whole another debate and honestly I can’t say what the appropriate response is without full context, which is impossible since it’s a hypothetical now.

[President Johnson]

I know Atlas doesn’t want to hear bad news ever, but 26 out of the 73 people who have died from the Delta variant in the UK being fully vaccinated is a bit concerning. This is not even a case of symptomatic cases...we are talking full on deaths, which one would think would be more likely to be prevented by vaccines, even with these variants.

What vaccine did they have? AstraZeneca? Janssen? How old were they? Any underlying health conditions?

I know we've all gotten obsessed with raw numbers, but we need to remember that context is equally important. (And yes, we can keep an eye on the Delta variant. But keeping an eye on it doesn't mean grinding society to a halt again. That's just not justified this time.)

I agree we need that information, and currently that isn’t available.
Given the country, probably either Astrazeneca or Pfizer, but we don’t know. Same goes for age and health information, which is why I’m not going full doomer yet.
I would love more context, and do hope we get more stats and information.

And yeah I’m not advocating for shutting down our society, and Mattrose is a troll.
All I want is for people to understand that we are not out of the woods yet, and that it is possible that we may see some temporary setbacks in our progress. How we should respond to those setbacks is a whole another debate and honestly I can’t say what the appropriate response is without full context, which is impossible since it’s a hypothetical now.

Bontech/Pfizer recently said that their vaccine is equally effective against the delta variant after about two weeks following the second shot and that there is no need to modify the vaccine. Biontech CEO stated that their vaccine could be modified for new variants within a few weeks.

For some other vaccines, there's not enough scientific data yet available.

[It’s so Joever]

I know Atlas doesn’t want to hear bad news ever, but 26 out of the 73 people who have died from the Delta variant in the UK being fully vaccinated is a bit concerning. This is not even a case of symptomatic cases...we are talking full on deaths, which one would think would be more likely to be prevented by vaccines, even with these variants.

What vaccine did they have? AstraZeneca? Janssen? How old were they? Any underlying health conditions?

I know we've all gotten obsessed with raw numbers, but we need to remember that context is equally important. (And yes, we can keep an eye on the Delta variant. But keeping an eye on it doesn't mean grinding society to a halt again. That's just not justified this time.)

I agree we need that information, and currently that isn’t available.
Given the country, probably either Astrazeneca or Pfizer, but we don’t know. Same goes for age and health information, which is why I’m not going full doomer yet.
I would love more context, and do hope we get more stats and information.

And yeah I’m not advocating for shutting down our society, and Mattrose is a troll.
All I want is for people to understand that we are not out of the woods yet, and that it is possible that we may see some temporary setbacks in our progress. How we should respond to those setbacks is a whole another debate and honestly I can’t say what the appropriate response is without full context, which is impossible since it’s a hypothetical now.

Bontech/Pfizer recently said that their vaccine is equally effective against the delta variant after about two weeks following the second shot and that there is no need to modify the vaccine. Biontech CEO stated that their vaccine could be modified for new variants within a few weeks.

For some other vaccines, there's not enough scientific data yet available.

Well the modification part was already well known. That’s the beauty of this new vaccine type. This is a big f**king deal in the medical World.

And yes, some current early data does show that there is a 88% protection from symptomatic infection with Delta after two doses and two weeks.
Again I am just watching with concern mainly due to the real life numbers we are seeing, with the caveat that these could be statistical outliers, skewed data, or both.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

We should focus on states that are doing really good like Vermont, Maine, and the Dakotas. Or almost any other state in the U.S. that isn't Missouri or Mississippi.

Vermont usually has under 10 cases per day now. Maine and D.C. usually have under 20 each.

There's also places like Gibraltar that have hardly any cases at all now. They vaccinated almost everyone (adults at least).