COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[Crumpets]

Swings and roundabouts.

https://twitter.com/seattletimes/status/1364973604442697732

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

https://twitter.com/jaketapper/status/1364927387578888193

“We will not see terrorism come here” and we didn’t! It was born here.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/josh_wingrove/status/1365045460994568196

[Hash]

I'm not sure if this article by Dr. Julia Marcus has been posted here yet, but it crystalizes a lot of the feelings I've had about how the messaging re: vaccines has been totally mishandled. I hope in the next few weeks we'll have better guidance from the CDC, because telling people "do nothing differently" is not a way to drive vaccination rates up, even if it is the only 100% sure way of risk mitigation. (As Marcus points out, "trying to eliminate even the lowest-risk changes in behavior both underestimates people’s need to be close to one another and discourages the very thing that will get everyone out of this mess: vaccine uptake.")

Thoughts from anyone smarter than I? Am I misreading the whole situation?

It hasn't been a serious problem yet, demand for vaccine still outstrips supply but it was extremely stupid to discourage the vaccine so much.

I fully agree. A lot of public health bureaucrats seem to be actively downplaying the vaccine, continuing to say there's 'no evidence' that they prevent transmission/infection and that you still need to wear three masks (what's their latest number?) even if you're fully vaccinated or you still can't do anything even if you're fully vaccinated. Take this recent comment from Canada's deputy public health officer -

I think, I think bottom line is that I think in many ways, life won't get back to normal the way we understood it, even for those people have received the two doses of vaccine

I'm not advocating 'reopen everything now' and even err on the side of caution about reopening too quickly given the risk of a variant-fueled wave in North America soon, but this kind of messaging is really, really bad. In a few weeks (in the US) or months (in Canada, which has a catastrophic vaccination rollout - good job team!), this messaging could fuel vaccine hesitancy and will turn into excellent material for anti-vaxxers ('why even get a vaccine if it won't change anything?').

On the other hand, these public health geniuses lied about masks for much of January-April 2020 and then did a pretty quick pivot so I have no doubt that they'll do a quick pivot to 'nothing will ever be normal again (:' to 'victory, let's rebuild better'

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Not just that but also just saying nothing will return to normal after the vaccine. 

The problem is we don't know when after the vaccine is. Everyone is saying things like 2022 will look at lot more like 2019 than 2020.

Should we drop our masks immediately after one dose?

Yes.

[Hammy]

Give the government control to totally shut down your social life, keep you indoors, etc and good luck ever putting that back into its box.  Our freedoms are a lot more important than a virus with a 2% fataility rate.  Sorry, I said it.  I mean it.

A little under 1 year ago... and the only problem with this quote is that I WAY overestimated the IFR.

Hope ya'll don't take another year to wake up.  Won't wait up for you though.

Do you understand what 20% hospitalization rate means? Are you incapable of grasping what happens when you have entire hospitals filled up with covid patients (many of which would die without hospital treatment)?

COVID isn't the only disease out there, but the fact that hospitals are overwhelmed means people who are suffering from those other diseases that can easily be treated in a medical setting, or people who suffer injuries or accidents, aren't able to get that treatment as easily, if at all.

And all this because people put "but the government!" symbolic virtue signaling over basic common sense and refuse to do things as simple as wearing masks in public, or avoiding having at-home gatherings.  There's a reason why we've had 72x the number of deaths here than Japan, a country which we only have slightly over double the population.

All I can say is I genuinely hope it doesn't take a personal tragedy to wake you up from your ignorantly misguided outlook

[It’s so Joever]

Not just that but also just saying nothing will return to normal after the vaccine. 

The problem is we don't know when after the vaccine is. Everyone is saying things like 2022 will look at lot more like 2019 than 2020.

Should we drop our masks immediately after one dose?

Yes.

Maybe wait for the incubation period at least?

[Progressive Pessimist]

Swings and roundabouts.

https://twitter.com/seattletimes/status/1364973604442697732

Good news! But I am not convinced that Americans will continue doing the bare minimum of something as simple as washing hands regularly when the pandemic is over. I get not wanting to wear masks or social distancing anymore when that time comes, but I still think much of the populace is going to become overconfident again and think everything will be fine from now on and go back to shaking hands, sharing food and drink, etc.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 2/25 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE:What's the overall change in the total?

Brackets []: These represent the total change for the day, including backlogged reports, if any.

• These numbers are inflated relative to the actual reports for the day, so they are not used to calculate the comparative percentage shifts.

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2/14: <Sunday>

• Cases: 28,261,470 (+64,506 | ΔW Change: ↓29.71% | Σ Increase: ↑0.23%)
• Deaths: 497,174 (+1,111 | ΔW Change: ↓20.93% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)

2/15: <M>

• Cases: 28,317,703 (+56,233 | ΔW Change: ↓36.98% | Σ Increase: ↑0.20%)
• Deaths: 498,203 (+1,029 | ΔW Change: ↓30.10% | Σ Increase: ↑0.21%)

2/16: <T>

• Cases: 28,381,220 (+63,517 | ΔW Change: ↓35.92% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)
• Deaths: 499,991 (+1,788 | ΔW Change: ↓46.90% | Σ Increase: ↑0.36%)

2/17: <W>

• Cases: 28,453,526 (+72,706 | ΔW Change: ↓25.40% | Σ Increase: ↑0.25%)
• Deaths: 502,544 (+2,553 | ΔW Change: ↓25.53% | Σ Increase: ↑0.51%)

2/18: <Þ>

• Cases: 28,523,524 (+69,998 | ΔW Change: ↓33.35% | Σ Increase: ↑0.25%)
• Deaths: 505,309 (+2,765 | ΔW Change: ↓25.71% | Σ Increase: ↑0.55%)

2/19: <F>

• Cases: 28,603,813 (+80,289 | ΔW Change: ↓11.05% | Σ Increase: ↑0.28%)
• Deaths: 507,746 (+2,437 | ΔW Change: ↓16.20% | Σ Increase: ↑0.48%)

2/20: <S>

• Cases: 28,706,473 (+69,617 [+102,660] | ΔW Change: ↓22.87% | Σ Increase: ↑0.36%)
• Deaths: 509,875 (+1,907 [+2,129] | ΔW Change: ↓16.07% | Σ Increase: ↑0.42%)

2/21: <Sunday>

• Cases: 28,765,423 (+58,950 | ΔW Change: ↓8.61% | Σ Increase: ↑0.21%)
• Deaths: 511,133 (+1,258 | ΔW Change: ↑13.23% | Σ Increase: ↑0.25%)

2/22: <M>

• Cases: 28,826,307 (+60,884 | ΔW Change: ↑8.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.21%)
• Deaths: 512,590 (+1,457 | ΔW Change: ↑41.59% | Σ Increase: ↑0.29%)

2/23: <T>

• Cases: 28,897,718 (+71,411 | ΔW Change: ↑12.43% | Σ Increase: ↑0.25%)
• Deaths: 514,996 (+2,406 | ΔW Change: ↑34.56% | Σ Increase: ↑0.47%)

2/24 (Yesterday): <W>

• Cases: 28,974,623 (+76,905 | ΔW Change: ↑5.78% | Σ Increase: ↑0.27%)
• Deaths: 518,363 (+2,525 [3,367] | ΔW Change: ↓1.10% | Σ Increase: ↑0.65%)

2/25 (Today): <Þ>

• Cases: 29,052,262 (+77,639 | ΔW Change: ↑10.92% | Σ Increase: ↑0.27%)
• Deaths: 520,785 (+2,422 | ΔW Change: ↓12.41% | Σ Increase: ↑0.47%)

[emailking]

Not just that but also just saying nothing will return to normal after the vaccine. 

The problem is we don't know when after the vaccine is. Everyone is saying things like 2022 will look at lot more like 2019 than 2020.

Should we drop our masks immediately after one dose?

Yes.

My understanding is that even if you're fully vaccinated the virus can still replicate in your nose.

[BudgieForce]

It very much looks like the decline has stalled but I think we should wait until next week before freaking out.

Last week provided many opportunities for cases and deaths to artificially decline.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 2/26 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE:What's the overall change in the total?

Brackets []: These represent the total change for the day, including backlogged reports, if any.

• These numbers are inflated relative to the actual reports for the day, so they are not used to calculate the comparative percentage shifts.

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2/14: <Sunday>

• Cases: 28,261,470 (+64,506 | ΔW Change: ↓29.71% | Σ Increase: ↑0.23%)
• Deaths: 497,174 (+1,111 | ΔW Change: ↓20.93% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)

2/15: <M>

• Cases: 28,317,703 (+56,233 | ΔW Change: ↓36.98% | Σ Increase: ↑0.20%)
• Deaths: 498,203 (+1,029 | ΔW Change: ↓30.10% | Σ Increase: ↑0.21%)

2/16: <T>

• Cases: 28,381,220 (+63,517 | ΔW Change: ↓35.92% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)
• Deaths: 499,991 (+1,788 | ΔW Change: ↓46.90% | Σ Increase: ↑0.36%)

2/17: <W>

• Cases: 28,453,526 (+72,706 | ΔW Change: ↓25.40% | Σ Increase: ↑0.25%)
• Deaths: 502,544 (+2,553 | ΔW Change: ↓25.53% | Σ Increase: ↑0.51%)

2/18: <Þ>

• Cases: 28,523,524 (+69,998 | ΔW Change: ↓33.35% | Σ Increase: ↑0.25%)
• Deaths: 505,309 (+2,765 | ΔW Change: ↓25.71% | Σ Increase: ↑0.55%)

2/19: <F>

• Cases: 28,603,813 (+80,289 | ΔW Change: ↓11.05% | Σ Increase: ↑0.28%)
• Deaths: 507,746 (+2,437 | ΔW Change: ↓16.20% | Σ Increase: ↑0.48%)

2/20: <S>

• Cases: 28,706,473 (+69,617 [+102,660] | ΔW Change: ↓22.87% | Σ Increase: ↑0.36%)
• Deaths: 509,875 (+1,907 [+2,129] | ΔW Change: ↓16.07% | Σ Increase: ↑0.42%)

2/21: <Sunday>

• Cases: 28,765,423 (+58,950 | ΔW Change: ↓8.61% | Σ Increase: ↑0.21%)
• Deaths: 511,133 (+1,258 | ΔW Change: ↑13.23% | Σ Increase: ↑0.25%)

2/22: <M>

• Cases: 28,826,307 (+60,884 | ΔW Change: ↑8.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.21%)
• Deaths: 512,590 (+1,457 | ΔW Change: ↑41.59% | Σ Increase: ↑0.29%)

2/23: <T>

• Cases: 28,897,718 (+71,411 | ΔW Change: ↑12.43% | Σ Increase: ↑0.25%)
• Deaths: 514,996 (+2,406 | ΔW Change: ↑34.56% | Σ Increase: ↑0.47%)

2/24: <W>

• Cases: 28,974,623 (+76,905 | ΔW Change: ↑5.78% | Σ Increase: ↑0.27%)
• Deaths: 518,363 (+2,525 [3,367] | ΔW Change: ↓1.10% | Σ Increase: ↑0.65%)

2/25 (Yesterday): <Þ>

• Cases: 29,052,262 (+77,639 | ΔW Change: ↑10.92% | Σ Increase: ↑0.27%)
• Deaths: 520,785 (+2,422 | ΔW Change: ↓12.41% | Σ Increase: ↑0.47%)

2/26 (Today): <F>

• Cases: 29,136,912 (+80,625 [84,650] | ΔW Change: ↑0.42% | Σ Increase: ↑0.29%)
• Deaths: 523,082 (+2,297 | ΔW Change: ↓5.74% | Σ Increase: ↑0.44%)

[Not Me, Us]

Why are cases still going up? We're vaccinating more people and there haven't been any major superspreader events, so what gives?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

https://twitter.com/RepCloakroom/status/1365558349618688002

[emailking]

Why are cases still going up? We're vaccinating more people and there haven't been any major superspreader events, so what gives?

I don't think the vaccines are playing into it much yet. We came down fast off of a huge peak (which is expected in theory). Now it may just be random fluctuation.

[Hammy]

Why are cases still going up? We're vaccinating more people and there haven't been any major superspreader events, so what gives?

A lot of places have opted to continue on as if COVID doesn't exist, and (depending on the source) you need about 60% to 85% vaccination rate to create herd immunity, and we're at roughly 5% or so.

[President Johnson]

Why are cases still going up? We're vaccinating more people and there haven't been any major superspreader events, so what gives?

A lot of places have opted to continue on as if COVID doesn't exist, and (depending on the source) you need about 60% to 85% vaccination rate to create herd immunity, and we're at roughly 5% or so.

I read that 50 million doses where vaccinated since Joe Biden took office. This plus people being through an infection is more than 5%, but still not nearly enough for herd immunity. Plus many folks get tired of restrictions and don't take them seriously anymore, I would assume.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

In the end, people who opposed lockdowns and masks but supported vaccines are going to be vindicated. Their stance was the pandemic playbook that was in force before 2020, and should have been followed all along.

[BudgieForce]

In the end, people who opposed lockdowns and masks but supported vaccines are going to be vindicated. Their stance was the pandemic playbook that was in force before 2020, and should have been followed all along.

Why would people who oppose masks be vindicated?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Why would people who oppose masks be vindicated?

Lockdowns and masks clearly don't work, but it appears as if vaccines do.

[BudgieForce]

Why would people who oppose masks be vindicated?

Lockdowns and masks clearly don't work, but it appears as if vaccines do.

Masks do work. They're multiple studies that say they work. The problem is that not everyone wears them.

[It’s so Joever]

In the end, people who opposed lockdowns and masks but supported vaccines are going to be vindicated. Their stance was the pandemic playbook that was in force before 2020, and should have been followed all along.

You are incredibly ridiculous.
The only thing you will be after this pandemic is laughed at.

[emailking]

Why would people who oppose masks be vindicated?

Lockdowns and masks clearly don't work, but it appears as if vaccines do.

I understand your criticism of the lockdowns, but other than the few instances I've heard of someone with a medical condition being forced to wear them anyway, I really don't see what the problem with masks is.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Why are cases still going up? We're vaccinating more people and there haven't been any major superspreader events, so what gives?

Case increases over the last week have been modest, with the highest cases still being less than half what we were seeing at the peak, and it's coming after a week with both a holiday and a blizzard/deep freeze. We don't have enough data to say if it's a blip or something else yet.

[roxas11]

Why would people who oppose masks be vindicated?

Lockdowns and masks clearly don't work, but it appears as if vaccines do.

and this is where you completely lost me.....