COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron (user search)
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  COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron (search mode)
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Author Topic: COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron  (Read 526397 times)
Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas
Ray Goldfield
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« on: September 13, 2020, 10:19:16 PM »

Well here’s a weird theory that may explain the lower death rates in the past few months:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/face-masks-could-giving-people-covid-19-immunity-researchers/?fbclid=IwAR0z2sVoVRbaFS6uc62aeNHoGGmT9A1c_VpHZ_iBVc588UZ5ve_xYEgKGX0

I’ve felt for a while now that the inital advice of health experts NOT to wear masks may have been the biggest mistake of the entire course of the pandemic.  It would certainly be #1 if this theory turns out to be true.  If all of the lockdowns had simply been replaced with mask requirements, we could have save hundreds of thousands of lives as well as most of the economic damage.


There's at least one other very straightforward reason why not as many people are dying: Doctors are better at treating COVID-19 patients now.

We also know not to hotbox seniors with the virus anymore.

Really, all these fit into the same pattern - we know a little more about the virus and are at least able to mitigate the death rate through common-sense measures now.
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Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas
Ray Goldfield
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 7,616


« Reply #1 on: September 26, 2020, 10:39:19 PM »

There’s virtually no country in the Western world that has succeeded at truly controlling the virus.  The only realistic policy that would have saved hundreds of thousands of lives would have been vaccine challenge trials. 

At this point, it seems like the decision is largely between extended strict lockdowns and a lower number of deaths, or an open economy and more deaths. None of the countries that had been held up as better at handling it than the US have actually conquered it and they won't until there's a vaccine. It's too good at spreading.

Which of those two options is the right one? We're going to be debating that long after this is in the rearview mirror.
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Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas
Ray Goldfield
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 7,616


« Reply #2 on: October 16, 2020, 10:50:17 PM »

It's fairly clear that the virus is going completely out of control. Something has to be done soon.

But what? Everything we've done thus far has failed.

Well, honestly, I don't know at this point. It's above my pay grade, but an unchecked pandemic will lead to massive deaths.

At least shut down indoor dining and bars. Every bit of evidence I have seen suggests that is the most dangerous public activity going on.

Indoor dining has been going on for months here in DC, and aside from the Rose Garden event, there's never been a massive spike in cases.

Bars, Universities still running in person classes, sports (college football is starting up again soon and people are bound to meet up for their usual grill outs), and a general disregard for safety in Republican heavy areas in the Northeast of the state (saw this with my own eyes in Marinette County) are a big problem in Wisconsin, at least.

Yeah, restaurants are able to regulate their space and ensure proper distance much better than bars and campuses are.
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Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas
Ray Goldfield
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 7,616


« Reply #3 on: November 16, 2020, 06:11:21 PM »

Philadelphia just basically imposed a zero-tolerance measure: no indoor gatherings of ANY size, all schools and colleges online (no conditionals), no indoor dining or bars of any kind, retail stores must operate five people max per every 1000 square feet, etc. etc.  

Based on the current case rates, this seems warranted - but Governors and Mayors who prolonged the first lockdowns well past when their regions were already doing well are about to pay a terrible price in terms of a public that is much less willing to comply.
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Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas
Ray Goldfield
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,616


« Reply #4 on: November 17, 2020, 11:41:34 PM »

If America sadly reaches 400,000 deaths by December 25, we should not lockdown.

A lockdown during winter months? In gray and cold areas like the Midwest and Appalachia?

Suicide rates and opoid rates will spike.

So sad

This will increase Hawleyism and destroy Thatcherism-Reaganism.

You know what else increases depression, and hence addiction and suicide rates? Seeing your family members die from a pandemic.

Yes, that is true. But we cannot lockdown. The economy needs to stimulate. People are still spending, whatever they have. Dunkin Donuts is still open, the bagel shop in my town is still open.

We cannot lockdown---no, no, no. It'd be a disaster.

I don't know that we necessarily need as severe a lockdown as we had in the spring - though it may be needed at the state level in some places where things are the most egregiously out of control - given that we have better mask wearing and contact tracing than we had then. But there do at least need to be closures for the most high-risk activities: bars, indoor dining, indoor entertainment, things like that.

The one mistake we absolutely need to not make again is closing down non-essential retail. Not only are these small businesses just as capable of protecting people with reduced capacity as big box stores, but it amounted to a mass transfer of business from small businesses to large businesses for no actual purpose. The remaining stores open were more crowded as a result!
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Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas
Ray Goldfield
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,616


« Reply #5 on: November 30, 2020, 05:53:50 PM »




If this plays out, maybe one of the greatest achievements in modern scientific history.
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Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas
Ray Goldfield
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,616


« Reply #6 on: December 18, 2020, 08:07:52 PM »

Best strategy at this point is to vaccinate the elderly population and that young and healthy people should now not wear masks and throw covid parties and deliberately get infected. That would be the fastest way to achieve an end to this pandemic.
This ain't it, chief.

You at least agree that elderly and vulnerable should be vaccinated prior to essential workers right?

They should all be in the most high-priority group, since the essential workers will be the ones most exposed and the ones who have the potential to infect the most people.

Really, it seems like the smartest thing we can do now that the Moderna vaccine has been approved is potentially to switch it from two doses to one right now. If it's true that the vaccine's first dose has a 92% effectiveness rate, then it might be the quickest path to herd immunity by cutting the wait time in half. Do research into the effectiveness of a second dose six months later as a booster, but we can't wait for everyone to get their two doses if the difference is 3%.
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Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas
Ray Goldfield
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,616


« Reply #7 on: December 19, 2020, 12:37:01 AM »

Best strategy at this point is to vaccinate the elderly population and that young and healthy people should now not wear masks and throw covid parties and deliberately get infected. That would be the fastest way to achieve an end to this pandemic.
This ain't it, chief.

You at least agree that elderly and vulnerable should be vaccinated prior to essential workers right?

They should all be in the most high-priority group, since the essential workers will be the ones most exposed and the ones who have the potential to infect the most people.

Really, it seems like the smartest thing we can do now that the Moderna vaccine has been approved is potentially to switch it from two doses to one right now. If it's true that the vaccine's first dose has a 92% effectiveness rate, then it might be the quickest path to herd immunity by cutting the wait time in half. Do research into the effectiveness of a second dose six months later as a booster, but we can't wait for everyone to get their two doses if the difference is 3%.

Wouldn't it be better to use both? That way we can vaccinate more people more quickly, even if one of the vaccines isn't as good.


Yeah, I'm not advocating scrapping the Pfizer vaccine, but if Moderna is essentially functional with one dose, that gives it a huge leg up over Pfizer which seems to genuinely require two doses.
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Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas
Ray Goldfield
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,616


« Reply #8 on: December 24, 2020, 04:08:24 PM »

I really don’t understand why there hasn’t been more discussion about the efficiency of giving people one shot verses two. 

This would seem to me to be at least as important, if not more so, as the priority in which different groups receive the vaccine.  In fact, that question becomes much less important if we can agree that one shot is nearly as effective as two, which is what data suggest, at least as far as the RNA vaccines go.

I wish there was more data about Pfizer and this, but if the Moderna data is accurate, it absolutely seems like a critical discussion. The J&J vaccine, if it proves to be accurate, could revolutionize the debate as well.
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Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas
Ray Goldfield
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,616


« Reply #9 on: January 18, 2021, 11:06:15 PM »

Slight optimism...rising.
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Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas
Ray Goldfield
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,616


« Reply #10 on: January 19, 2021, 10:44:32 PM »

Unlike yesterday, which could have been noise due to the holiday, this feels like a genuinely good sign that the holiday surge has passed.

Still a long way to go, of course.
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Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas
Ray Goldfield
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Posts: 7,616


« Reply #11 on: January 20, 2021, 09:35:06 PM »

I think it's time to change the thread title (I don't know to what though).

May I suggest "Vaccination Nation".
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Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas
Ray Goldfield
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Posts: 7,616


« Reply #12 on: January 21, 2021, 12:43:43 AM »

Welp.

Case rate is still continuing to improve, at least.
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Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas
Ray Goldfield
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 7,616


« Reply #13 on: January 24, 2021, 09:39:21 PM »

Very good consistent trend in cases.
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Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas
Ray Goldfield
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 7,616


« Reply #14 on: January 29, 2021, 09:08:42 AM »

There's not going to be another peak as bad as the past couple months. Guaranteed.

Don't see how you can possibly know that. The experts are saying it's possible.

But they haven't explained how.

The combination of the winter months and the double-hit of holiday spread make this period seem like it'll be hard to top. The only way I can see it happening is if reinfections massively ramp up, and the data right now indicates that reinfections are an extremely rare event that has yet to be fully explained.
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Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas
Ray Goldfield
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,616


« Reply #15 on: January 29, 2021, 09:39:26 AM »

There's not going to be another peak as bad as the past couple months. Guaranteed.

Don't see how you can possibly know that. The experts are saying it's possible.

But they haven't explained how.

The combination of the winter months and the double-hit of holiday spread make this period seem like it'll be hard to top. The only way I can see it happening is if reinfections massively ramp up, and the data right now indicates that reinfections are an extremely rare event that has yet to be fully explained.


Couldn't the variants cause a worse spread going forward?

(I have no medical background, and don't exactly know what I'm talking about.)

The main question is whether the variants can reinfect people who had the original virus or not, I think. The combination of previously infected and those who may have been asymptomatic and already beat the virus means there just isn't enough real estate for the virus unless reinfections ramp up.
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Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas
Ray Goldfield
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,616


« Reply #16 on: February 05, 2021, 05:22:21 PM »

I'm seeing a lot of people on twitter showing place in Florida that are completely open, no one wearing a mask, etc and then justifying it by showing places with universal mask mandates and huge restrictions (IL/NY) that have the same exact death rate per capita.

It really is insane how the letter next to your governors name determines what type of life you live these days.

More your Governor's personality than anything else.

Life in Colorado or Virginia is far closer to life in Florida than it is to life in NY/CA.
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Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas
Ray Goldfield
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,616


« Reply #17 on: February 05, 2021, 07:24:15 PM »

I'm seeing a lot of people on twitter showing place in Florida that are completely open, no one wearing a mask, etc and then justifying it by showing places with universal mask mandates and huge restrictions (IL/NY) that have the same exact death rate per capita.

It really is insane how the letter next to your governors name determines what type of life you live these days.

More your Governor's personality than anything else.

Life in Colorado or Virginia is far closer to life in Florida than it is to life in NY/CA.
Ehhh...Virginia isn’t super opened up is it?
My cousins in VA were still online and it seems more people take it seriously there from the few anecdotes I have heard.
(they live in suburban Richmond)
Maybe I’m wrong.

They seem to be keeping a close eye on the metrics and still have some restrictions, but most things are open at full capacity. Mask mandates are still in place, but they look a lot closer to a true "new normal" than the Forever Lockdowns.
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Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas
Ray Goldfield
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,616


« Reply #18 on: February 08, 2021, 09:19:52 AM »

https://scitechdaily.com/most-americans-say-theyll-continue-health-precautions-after-the-covid-19-pandemic/

Quote

A new national survey of more than 2,000 Americans by The Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center finds most plan to continue many of the pandemic precautions in the name of public health, even when the pandemic is over.



The survey found that nearly three-quarters (72%) of Americans plan to continue to wear masks in public, four out of five (80%) will still avoid crowds and 90% plan to keep up frequent handwashing and sanitizer use after COVID-19. Gonsenhauser says it’s encouraging that people are willing to continue these practices and that this year’s flu season is proof of their effectiveness.

Somehow I really doubt this. But let's entertain this for a moment, if this was true, this means the end of conventions and large gatherings

It means the end of every business that requires crowds, including sporting events, theme parks, movie theaters, cruises, and concerts. None of those can survive with only 20% of the public willing to even consider attending them. If it's true, and I seriously doubt it, it means that the minds of Americans have been fundamentally broken by this trauma and there likely is no coming back for this country.
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Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas
Ray Goldfield
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,616


« Reply #19 on: February 08, 2021, 12:37:37 PM »

https://scitechdaily.com/most-americans-say-theyll-continue-health-precautions-after-the-covid-19-pandemic/

Quote

A new national survey of more than 2,000 Americans by The Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center finds most plan to continue many of the pandemic precautions in the name of public health, even when the pandemic is over.



The survey found that nearly three-quarters (72%) of Americans plan to continue to wear masks in public, four out of five (80%) will still avoid crowds and 90% plan to keep up frequent handwashing and sanitizer use after COVID-19. Gonsenhauser says it’s encouraging that people are willing to continue these practices and that this year’s flu season is proof of their effectiveness.

Somehow I really doubt this. But let's entertain this for a moment, if this was true, this means the end of conventions and large gatherings

It means the end of every business that requires crowds, including sporting events, theme parks, movie theaters, cruises, and concerts. None of those can survive with only 20% of the public willing to even consider attending them. If it's true, and I seriously doubt it, it means that the minds of Americans have been fundamentally broken by this trauma and there likely is no coming back for this country.

There's no way that poll is even close to true as it is being presented.  Way more than 20% of people were already doing almost nothing to avoid crowds when the pandemic was at its peak.

I know I for one will be going to as many concerts, theaters, casinos, conventions, etc. that I possibly can as soon as I am fully vaccinated.

That's what I'm thinking/hoping. If that poll is remotely accurate, it's horrible news for the long-term health of this country and I'm really wondering how the hell they got those results. If it's bad methodology, DEEPLY irresponsible to release it like this.

I do think casual mask-wearing will continue long-term, and that might be a good thing. I doubt many places will continue to have mandates, but some people will feel safer that way.
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Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas
Ray Goldfield
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,616


« Reply #20 on: February 11, 2021, 12:50:14 AM »

Continues to be a fantastic trend in case rates. The deaths are taking their time to slow down, but it's guaranteed to happen.
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Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas
Ray Goldfield
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,616


« Reply #21 on: February 12, 2021, 07:41:56 PM »

I hope the Biden admin keeps turning the tide against Covid-19 and its variants.

Are we actually finally "turning the corner" for real?

On the variant we've been dealing with for a year, probably. On the new strains, who knows. The vaccines are effective, but they're a lot more contagious.

True, but we have no real proof on whether people who have had the first variant are vulnerable to the new strains. That's the big question here.
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Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas
Ray Goldfield
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,616


« Reply #22 on: February 14, 2021, 10:44:24 PM »

No more red on the charts!
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Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas
Ray Goldfield
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,616


« Reply #23 on: February 15, 2021, 12:50:03 PM »

Sorry for the double post:

The right is screaming about Biden being "beholden" to the teachers union. The left is pissed Biden is sending teachers back into "dangerous" environments.

I do not envy the tight rope Biden has to walk on this issue. Hopefully all schools are opened by September.

It's been almost a year. Numbers are way down. The vaccines are doing marvelously. Kids need to be back in school. I could've accepted the safety argument in September but not now, it's time to go back.

I understand that argument, but I still feel that it's too early. We're making incredible progress, and I'm wary of doing anything that might jeopardize that. I say keep things remote for the rest of this school year, and then reopen fully at the beginning of next year, when the vats majority of US adults will have been vaccinated, and cases will probably be extremely low.

Largely agree, but I think prepare to go back for May/June to wrap up the school year and give kids some sense/preview of normalcy to get them through the summer. It would be a test run for fall and also help to mitigate the psychological damage, especially for the graduating kids.
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Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas
Ray Goldfield
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,616


« Reply #24 on: February 19, 2021, 09:48:43 AM »

A new study in New England Journal of Medicine shows that getting just one dose of both Pfizer and Moderna is 92 percent effective after just two weeks.  

https://news.yahoo.com/pfizer-moderna-vaccines-prove-92-193917869.html

It’s so frustrating that we’ve been so rigid about this and have insisted on basically wasting half of our vaccine supply while it is still so scarce.

The main issue with this vaccine and its distribution seems the fact that it needs to be stored at -50°F or so. That's an additional difficulty for quick massdelivery.

As far as I know, the Johnson & Johnson and Astra-Zeneca vaccines can be stored at fridge temperatures. That makes it a lot easier.

I believe Moderna needs a standard freezer only, so it's a lot easier than Pfizer to distribute.
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