COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[emailking]

The "if yours works, why do I need one" argument has been debunked many times in this thread.

[brucejoel99]

The "if yours works, why do I need one" argument has been debunked many times in this thread.

So you're saying that the facts don't care about their feelings?

[IAMCANADIAN]

The "if yours works, why do I need one" argument has been debunked many times in this thread.

You can wear an industrial respirator which will make it virtually impossible to get Coronavirus through airborne transmission. Of course lazy leftiasts don't want to do that because they are very inconvenient to wear and they want to make everyone feel the pain with them.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The "if yours works, why do I need one" argument has been debunked many times in this thread.

You can wear an industrial respirator which will make it virtually impossible to get Coronavirus through airborne transmission. Of course lazy leftiasts don't want to do that because they are very inconvenient to wear and they want to make everyone feel the pain with them.

*plonk*

[emailking]

Yeah I guess. Even an N95 brings the chances way down, but there were supply shortages on those for months. But you've been able to get them for a while now.

[jamestroll]

As much of a reopening fundamentalist as I am, I will have to disagree with Abbott.

Masks do work if worn correctly and businesses need the legal leverage to enforce mask mandates.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

I think Texas and Mississippi were too quick to remove restrictions, but when is the right time to lift them? It seems like the virus won't be truly eradicated and we'll have to live with it like the flu.

Once enough people are vaccinated or at least everyone who wants to take a shot has been offered one. I don't know why people make such a big deal out of that. Wearing a mask while going into a store or wherever keeping a distance to strangers is not possible isn't that hard. Of course it's annoying to wear, but it helps save lives. And I'd much rather wear a mask than being on ICU or dead.

If masks are so effective in containing the spread of coronavirus, it should not be a big deal if mask mandates are allowed to expire.  You will still be able to go about wearing a mask, while continuing to take measures recommended by your health unit or the WHO.  Mask wearing isn't going to be banned.

I continue to struggle to wrap my mind around how the science of mask-wearing has been so thoroughly litigated for almost an entire year and people still subscribe to blatantly incorrect takes like this one. The extent of willful ignorance is extraordinary.

[Roll Roons]

Connecticut taking big steps in reopening:
https://twitter.com/Bogs4NY/status/1367584576944689154

[Hammy]

Immunity from getting COVID lasts all of about three months, often less.

Yeah, this is definitely not true.

There's going to be a lot of variance in the length of immunity, and we don't yet know the average length of immunity. But the reason we don't know the average length of immunity is that we haven't hit it yet.  It's at least a year, and probably significantly longer.

If average immunity were only three months, we would literally be seeing tens of thousands of cases of reinfection worldwide every day.  Instead, there have been less than 100 total worldwide cases of confirmed reinfection across the entire course of the pandemic.

Reinfection rate isn't being tracked closely, and clearly you're paying zero attention to the spikes in new cases in NYC.

I think most pro mask people are well aware that masks have minimal impact of controlling the spread of Coronavirus. They just need to make sure that everyone complies for the symbolic purpose of "showing that we care".

Anybody with half a brain--including health experts--have stated over and over the purpose of wearing a mask is to stop the spread from people who are not aware they are infected, as it takes 7-10 days for symptoms to show up (and asymptomatic people are also contagious). If we had actual widespread use of masks, such as similar rates to what's required for herd immunity (and at all times while in public) you'd have a much lower rate of spread, and significantly fewer deaths--and you wouldn't have full ICUs.

There's a reason why Japan and South Korea have had roughly 3% of our infection rate and 0.6% of our fatality rate.

[IAMCANADIAN]

Immunity from getting COVID lasts all of about three months, often less.

Yeah, this is definitely not true.

There's going to be a lot of variance in the length of immunity, and we don't yet know the average length of immunity. But the reason we don't know the average length of immunity is that we haven't hit it yet.  It's at least a year, and probably significantly longer.

If average immunity were only three months, we would literally be seeing tens of thousands of cases of reinfection worldwide every day.  Instead, there have been less than 100 total worldwide cases of confirmed reinfection across the entire course of the pandemic.

Reinfection rate isn't being tracked closely, and clearly you're paying zero attention to the spikes in new cases in NYC.

I think most pro mask people are well aware that masks have minimal impact of controlling the spread of Coronavirus. They just need to make sure that everyone complies for the symbolic purpose of "showing that we care".

Anybody with half a brain--including health experts--have stated over and over the purpose of wearing a mask is to stop the spread from people who are not aware they are infected, as it takes 7-10 days for symptoms to show up (and asymptomatic people are also contagious). If we had actual widespread use of masks, such as similar rates to what's required for herd immunity (and at all times while in public) you'd have a much lower rate of spread, and significantly fewer deaths--and you wouldn't have full ICUs.

There's a reason why Japan and South Korea have had roughly 3% of our infection rate and 0.6% of our fatality rate.

I live in Toronto where there are mask mandates indoors with about a 99% compliance rate. Our largest spike in cases was well after the mask mandate came into effect.

[Hammy]

Immunity from getting COVID lasts all of about three months, often less.

Yeah, this is definitely not true.

There's going to be a lot of variance in the length of immunity, and we don't yet know the average length of immunity. But the reason we don't know the average length of immunity is that we haven't hit it yet.  It's at least a year, and probably significantly longer.

If average immunity were only three months, we would literally be seeing tens of thousands of cases of reinfection worldwide every day.  Instead, there have been less than 100 total worldwide cases of confirmed reinfection across the entire course of the pandemic.

Reinfection rate isn't being tracked closely, and clearly you're paying zero attention to the spikes in new cases in NYC.

I think most pro mask people are well aware that masks have minimal impact of controlling the spread of Coronavirus. They just need to make sure that everyone complies for the symbolic purpose of "showing that we care".

Anybody with half a brain--including health experts--have stated over and over the purpose of wearing a mask is to stop the spread from people who are not aware they are infected, as it takes 7-10 days for symptoms to show up (and asymptomatic people are also contagious). If we had actual widespread use of masks, such as similar rates to what's required for herd immunity (and at all times while in public) you'd have a much lower rate of spread, and significantly fewer deaths--and you wouldn't have full ICUs.

There's a reason why Japan and South Korea have had roughly 3% of our infection rate and 0.6% of our fatality rate.

I live in Toronto where there are mask mandates indoors with about a 99% compliance rate. Our largest spike in cases was well after the mask mandate came into effect.

Are they wearing them properly and at all times though? That's where the difference is made--it's absurd how many people I see wearing them improperly around here, having them on their chin or taking them off to talk for instance.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

It looks like the US yesterday passed two pretty significant vaccinations thresholds: we are now averaging more than 2 million doses per day, and we are now vaccinating more people per capita per day than the UK.

[emailking]

I live in Toronto where there are mask mandates indoors with about a 99% compliance rate. Our largest spike in cases was well after the mask mandate came into effect.

On its own, that tells you nothing about whether masks work or not.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 3/4 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE:What's the overall change in the total?

Brackets []: These represent the total change for the day, including backlogged reports, if any.

• These numbers are inflated relative to the actual reports for the day, so they are not used to calculate the comparative percentage shifts.

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2/21: <Sunday>

• Cases: 28,765,423 (+58,950 | ΔW Change: ↓8.61% | Σ Increase: ↑0.21%)
• Deaths: 511,133 (+1,258 | ΔW Change: ↑13.23% | Σ Increase: ↑0.25%)

2/22: <M>

• Cases: 28,826,307 (+60,884 | ΔW Change: ↑8.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.21%)
• Deaths: 512,590 (+1,457 | ΔW Change: ↑41.59% | Σ Increase: ↑0.29%)

2/23: <T>

• Cases: 28,897,718 (+71,411 | ΔW Change: ↑12.43% | Σ Increase: ↑0.25%)
• Deaths: 514,996 (+2,406 | ΔW Change: ↑34.56% | Σ Increase: ↑0.47%)

2/24: <W>

• Cases: 28,974,623 (+76,905 | ΔW Change: ↑5.78% | Σ Increase: ↑0.27%)
• Deaths: 518,363 (+2,525 [3,367] | ΔW Change: ↓1.10% | Σ Increase: ↑0.65%)

2/25: <Þ>

• Cases: 29,052,262 (+77,639 | ΔW Change: ↑10.92% | Σ Increase: ↑0.27%)
• Deaths: 520,785 (+2,422 | ΔW Change: ↓12.41% | Σ Increase: ↑0.47%)

2/26: <F>

• Cases: 29,136,912 (+80,625 [84,650] | ΔW Change: ↑0.42% | Σ Increase: ↑0.29%)
• Deaths: 523,082 (+2,297 | ΔW Change: ↓5.74% | Σ Increase: ↑0.44%)

2/27: <S>

• Cases: 29,202,824 (+65,912 | ΔW Change: ↓5.32% | Σ Increase: ↑0.23%)
• Deaths: 524,669 (+1,587 | ΔW Change: ↓16.78% | Σ Increase: ↑0.30%)

2/28: <Sunday>

• Cases: 29,255,344 (+52,520 | ΔW Change: ↓10.91% | Σ Increase: ↑0.18%)
• Deaths: 525,776 (+1,107 | ΔW Change: ↓12.00% | Σ Increase: ↑0.21%)

3/1: <M>

• Cases: 29,314,254 (+58,910 | ΔW Change: ↓3.24% | Σ Increase: ↑0.20%)
• Deaths: 527,226 (+1,450 | ΔW Change: ↓0.48% | Σ Increase: ↑0.28%)

3/2: <T>

• Cases: 29,370,705 (+56,451 | ΔW Change: ↓20.95% | Σ Increase: ↑0.19%)
• Deaths: 529,214 (+1,988 | ΔW Change: ↓17.31% | Σ Increase: ↑0.38%)

3/3 (Yesterday): <W>

• Cases: 29,456,377 (+66,879 [+85,672] | ΔW Change: ↓13.04% | Σ Increase: ↑0.29%)
• Deaths: 531,652 (+2,350 [+2,438] | ΔW Change: ↓6.93% | Σ Increase: ↑0.46%)

3/4 (Today): <Þ>

• Cases: 29,526,086 (+69,709 | ΔW Change: ↓10.21% | Σ Increase: ↑0.24%)
• Deaths: 533,636 (+1,984 | ΔW Change: ↓18.08% | Σ Increase: ↑0.37%)

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I've had my fill of people who say that states that loosen restrictions shouldn't get any vaccines.

Even if I was adamant that states should keep restrictions for as long as they dare, you still don't deprive the states' people of vaccines.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I've had my fill of people who say that states that loosen restrictions shouldn't get any vaccines.

Even if I was adamant that states should keep restrictions for as long as they dare, you still don't deprive the states' people of vaccines.

It only took a year, but I finally agree with you on a topic in this thread.   But I do completely agree.  The people of those states should not be punished for the short-sighted stupidity of their state governments.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Can we get a megathread 7 for "the sunset" or "everyone should get a vaccine"?  "Dawn of the Presidential Superspreader" is about as far from topical as it gets, and this thread is now well over 100 pages.

[It’s so Joever]

I think Texas and Mississippi were probably too quick to remove restrictions, but when is the right time to lift them? It seems like the virus won't be truly eradicated and we'll have to live with it like the flu.

At this point soon.
Barring some terrible developments (I always say this because I am pessimistic about everything) probably in April or May. Ironically about a year after many of these restrictions started.

[YE]

I think Texas and Mississippi were probably too quick to remove restrictions, but when is the right time to lift them? It seems like the virus won't be truly eradicated and we'll have to live with it like the flu.

Probably April-ish once almost everyone post 65 and high risk people 14-65 have it.

[Sir Mohamed]

Can we get a megathread 7 for "the sunset" or "everyone should get a vaccine"?  "Dawn of the Presidential Superspreader" is about as far from topical as it gets, and this thread is now well over 100 pages.

Agree. Though I'm no sure we're close to the end of the pandemic worldwide. WHO already said they don't expect it over in 2021. But we will be in a much better spot this fall than we're today, there is no question about that.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1367869999147257857

[emailking]

Can we get a megathread 7 for "the sunset" or "everyone should get a vaccine"?  "Dawn of the Presidential Superspreader" is about as far from topical as it gets, and this thread is now well over 100 pages.

Agree. Though I'm no sure we're close to the end of the pandemic worldwide. WHO already said they don't expect it over in 2021. But we will be in a much better spot this fall than we're today, there is no question about that.

I thought megathreads weren't going to be split anymore now that the forum can easily handle threads longer than 2000 replies.

[Pericles]

If the US achieves herd immunity this year, then surely it would be the end of the pandemic in the US and other developed countries? Unfortunately developing countries are being left behind and there is the risk if new variants, but there is light at the end of the tunnel.

[It’s so Joever]

If the US achieves herd immunity this year, then surely it would be the end of the pandemic in the US and other developed countries? Unfortunately developing countries are being left behind and there is the risk if new variants, but there is light at the end of the tunnel.

Yes, although as you stated we need to be ready to take the fight down to developing countries as wel to prevent mutations.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

If the US achieves herd immunity this year, then surely it would be the end of the pandemic in the US and other developed countries? Unfortunately developing countries are being left behind and there is the risk if new variants, but there is light at the end of the tunnel.

I have to imagine the US will achieve herd immunity several months before most of the rest of the developed world. We are so far ahead of them in vaccinations.  Most European countries have vaccinated less than 5% of their populations, while Asian countries like Japan and South Korea just started vaccinating a few thousand people last week.