COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[GeorgiaModerate]

Good news out of Texas and Mississippi.  The pandemic is over, time to move on with life.

I really hope you're joking.

The U.S. will reach herd immunity by the end of May, and the vaccination program should rap up by the end of the summer.  It is long overdue for things to go back to normal.  The spread of variants won't be an issue with key populations vaccinated.

Even by this logic then you can't think it's "over" until May, which is still 2 months away...

It's not kind to confuse them with logic.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I don't feel like we need to wait for complete herd immunity to fully open up.  The virus does not present enough of a threat just to young and healthy people to justify severe social restrictions once the old and vulnerable are immune. It seems reasonable to me to reopen once everyone in Phase 1b has had a chance to be fully vaccinated.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I think we're pretty deep in herd immunity territory already. Big Horn County is one of few places in Montana that's had a lot of cases. It had a very high number until very recently. But now on the New York Times map, it's had no recent cases - at all. None.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I think we're pretty deep in herd immunity territory already. Big Horn County is one of few places in Montana that's had a lot of cases. It had a very high number until very recently. But now on the New York Times map, it's had no recent cases - at all. None.

Big Horn County has 13,000 people.  If they've had a lot of cases then they could approach herd immunity (especially since they're spread over a wide area -- 5000 square miles) but that's not a good indicator for most of the population.

[Roll Roons]

I think we're pretty deep in herd immunity territory already. Big Horn County is one of few places in Montana that's had a lot of cases. It had a very high number until very recently. But now on the New York Times map, it's had no recent cases - at all. None.

In certain places, probably. It seems like the Dakotas have gotten close to it. Their case numbers peaked in mid-November (well before the first vaccine was approved) and have been declining ever since.

[GP270watch]

 There is a really impressive FEMA vaccination site in Tampa, Florida. They're vaccinating 135 people an hour.

[Pericles]

Another reason to reduce the prevalence of Covid in the community now is that when there are more opportunities for it to mutate, the risk of a vaccine hesitant mutation forming is higher. Compared to the worst-case scenario, the cost of having some patience is very small.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/03/health/bishops-catholics-johnson-and-johnson-vaccine/index.html

ugh wtf

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/03/health/bishops-catholics-johnson-and-johnson-vaccine/index.html

ugh wtf

It's an abortion/stem cells thing, I think.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 3/3 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE:What's the overall change in the total?

Brackets []: These represent the total change for the day, including backlogged reports, if any.

• These numbers are inflated relative to the actual reports for the day, so they are not used to calculate the comparative percentage shifts.

Older Numbers (Hidden in spoiler mode to make the post more compact)

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

<Last Numbers for 3/26-3/28 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 3/29-4/4 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/5-4/11 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/12-4/18 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/19-4/25 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 4/26-5/2 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 5/3-5/9 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 5/10-5/16 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 5/17-5/23 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 5/24-5/30 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 5/31-6/6 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 6/7-6/13 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 6/14-6/20 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 6/21-6/27 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 6/28-7/4 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 7/5-7/11 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 7/12-7/18 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 7/19-7/25 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 7/26-8/1 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 8/2-8/8 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 8/9-8/15 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 8/16-8/22 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 8/23-8/29 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 8/30-9/5 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 9/6-9/12 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 9/13-9/19 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 9/20-9/26 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 9/27-10/3 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 10/4-10/10 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 10/11-10/17 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 10/18-10/24 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 10/25-10/31 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 11/1-11/7 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 11/8-11/14 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 11/15-11/21 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 11/22-11/28 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 11/29-12/5 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 12/6-12/12 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 12/13-12/19 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 12/20-12/26 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 12/27-1/2 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 1/3-1/9 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 1/10-1/16 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 1/17-1/23 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 1/24-1/30 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 1/31-2/6 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 2/7-2/13 in this Post>
<Last Numbers from 2/14-2/20 in this Post>

2/21: <Sunday>

• Cases: 28,765,423 (+58,950 | ΔW Change: ↓8.61% | Σ Increase: ↑0.21%)
• Deaths: 511,133 (+1,258 | ΔW Change: ↑13.23% | Σ Increase: ↑0.25%)

2/22: <M>

• Cases: 28,826,307 (+60,884 | ΔW Change: ↑8.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.21%)
• Deaths: 512,590 (+1,457 | ΔW Change: ↑41.59% | Σ Increase: ↑0.29%)

2/23: <T>

• Cases: 28,897,718 (+71,411 | ΔW Change: ↑12.43% | Σ Increase: ↑0.25%)
• Deaths: 514,996 (+2,406 | ΔW Change: ↑34.56% | Σ Increase: ↑0.47%)

2/24: <W>

• Cases: 28,974,623 (+76,905 | ΔW Change: ↑5.78% | Σ Increase: ↑0.27%)
• Deaths: 518,363 (+2,525 [3,367] | ΔW Change: ↓1.10% | Σ Increase: ↑0.65%)

2/25: <Þ>

• Cases: 29,052,262 (+77,639 | ΔW Change: ↑10.92% | Σ Increase: ↑0.27%)
• Deaths: 520,785 (+2,422 | ΔW Change: ↓12.41% | Σ Increase: ↑0.47%)

2/26: <F>

• Cases: 29,136,912 (+80,625 [84,650] | ΔW Change: ↑0.42% | Σ Increase: ↑0.29%)
• Deaths: 523,082 (+2,297 | ΔW Change: ↓5.74% | Σ Increase: ↑0.44%)

2/27: <S>

• Cases: 29,202,824 (+65,912 | ΔW Change: ↓5.32% | Σ Increase: ↑0.23%)
• Deaths: 524,669 (+1,587 | ΔW Change: ↓16.78% | Σ Increase: ↑0.30%)

2/28: <Sunday>

• Cases: 29,255,344 (+52,520 | ΔW Change: ↓10.91% | Σ Increase: ↑0.18%)
• Deaths: 525,776 (+1,107 | ΔW Change: ↓12.00% | Σ Increase: ↑0.21%)

3/1: <M>

• Cases: 29,314,254 (+58,910 | ΔW Change: ↓3.24% | Σ Increase: ↑0.20%)
• Deaths: 527,226 (+1,450 | ΔW Change: ↓0.48% | Σ Increase: ↑0.28%)

3/2 (Yesterday): <T>

• Cases: 29,370,705 (+56,451 | ΔW Change: ↓20.95% | Σ Increase: ↑0.19%)
• Deaths: 529,214 (+1,988 | ΔW Change: ↓17.31% | Σ Increase: ↑0.38%)

3/3 (Today): <W>

• Cases: 29,456,377 (+66,879 [+85,672] | ΔW Change: ↓13.04% | Σ Increase: ↑0.29%)
• Deaths: 531,652 (+2,350 [+2,438] | ΔW Change: ↓6.93% | Σ Increase: ↑0.46%)

[Hammy]

I think we're pretty deep in herd immunity territory already. Big Horn County is one of few places in Montana that's had a lot of cases. It had a very high number until very recently. But now on the New York Times map, it's had no recent cases - at all. None.

Immunity from getting COVID lasts all of about three months, often less. As long as there continue to be new cases (not a rise in new cases, but new cases at all) without a widespread rapid vaccination program, we're going to remain light years away from anything resembling herd immunity. Not to mention you need 60-80% even if immunity lasted, and right now roughly 25% of the population has had COVID or a vaccine, and that's assuming there's zero overlap.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

I think we're pretty deep in herd immunity territory already. Big Horn County is one of few places in Montana that's had a lot of cases. It had a very high number until very recently. But now on the New York Times map, it's had no recent cases - at all. None.

Immunity from getting COVID lasts all of about three months, often less. As long as there continue to be new cases (not a rise in new cases, but new cases at all) without a widespread rapid vaccination program, we're going to remain light years away from anything resembling herd immunity. Not to mention you need 60-80% even if immunity lasted, and right now roughly 25% of the population has had COVID or a vaccine, and that's assuming there's zero overlap.

If that was the case, we would be seeing a wave of reinfections. All indications are that while antibodies might fade, cell immunity persists a lot longer.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Immunity from getting COVID lasts all of about three months, often less.

Yeah, this is definitely not true.

There's going to be a lot of variance in the length of immunity, and we don't yet know the average length of immunity. But the reason we don't know the average length of immunity is that we haven't hit it yet.  It's at least a year, and probably significantly longer.

If average immunity were only three months, we would literally be seeing tens of thousands of cases of reinfection worldwide every day.  Instead, there have been less than 100 total worldwide cases of confirmed reinfection across the entire course of the pandemic.

[It’s so Joever]

Immunity is not a black and white concept as well, it’s a complex series of functions with high variability on a case by case basis.

[brucejoel99]

Thank you Senator, very cool!

https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1367515798735097862

[roxas11]

Thank you Senator, very cool!

https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1367515798735097862

didnt the Neanderthals go extinct over 40,000 years ago....

Maybe Blackburn is the one who needs to rethink what she is saying.

[emailking]

Neanderthals may have been wiped out by homo sapiens. They were also likely superior in almost every way except intelligence.

[GP270watch]

A new strain of the coronavirus, known as B.1.526, is proliferating vigorously across New York City, after having originated in February in a part of upper Manhattan known as Washington Heights.

This is one of the areas of New York where people tested had the highest percentage of antibodies after the first wave of Covid-19. So if a new strain is developing and spreading in this area I don't think that's a good sign.

[Roll Roons]

I think Texas and Mississippi were probably too quick to remove restrictions, but when is the right time to lift them? It seems like the virus won't be truly eradicated and we'll have to live with it like the flu.

[President Johnson]

I think Texas and Mississippi were too quick to remove restrictions, but when is the right time to lift them? It seems like the virus won't be truly eradicated and we'll have to live with it like the flu.

Once enough people are vaccinated or at least everyone who wants to take a shot has been offered one. I don't know why people make such a big deal out of that. Wearing a mask while going into a store or wherever keeping a distance to strangers is not possible isn't that hard. Of course it's annoying to wear, but it helps save lives. And I'd much rather wear a mask than being on ICU or dead.

[DabbingSanta]

I think Texas and Mississippi were too quick to remove restrictions, but when is the right time to lift them? It seems like the virus won't be truly eradicated and we'll have to live with it like the flu.

Once enough people are vaccinated or at least everyone who wants to take a shot has been offered one. I don't know why people make such a big deal out of that. Wearing a mask while going into a store or wherever keeping a distance to strangers is not possible isn't that hard. Of course it's annoying to wear, but it helps save lives. And I'd much rather wear a mask than being on ICU or dead.

If masks are so effective in containing the spread of coronavirus, it should not be a big deal if mask mandates are allowed to expire.  You will still be able to go about wearing a mask, while continuing to take measures recommended by your health unit or the WHO.  Mask wearing isn't going to be banned.

[soundchaser]

I think Texas and Mississippi were too quick to remove restrictions, but when is the right time to lift them? It seems like the virus won't be truly eradicated and we'll have to live with it like the flu.

Once enough people are vaccinated or at least everyone who wants to take a shot has been offered one. I don't know why people make such a big deal out of that. Wearing a mask while going into a store or wherever keeping a distance to strangers is not possible isn't that hard. Of course it's annoying to wear, but it helps save lives. And I'd much rather wear a mask than being on ICU or dead.

If masks are so effective in containing the spread of coronavirus, it should not be a big deal if mask mandates are allowed to expire.  You will still be able to go about wearing a mask, while continuing to take measures recommended by your health unit or the WHO.  Mask wearing isn't going to be banned.

Removing what little protection/recourse those who work with the public have against asymptomatic people.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I think Texas and Mississippi were too quick to remove restrictions, but when is the right time to lift them? It seems like the virus won't be truly eradicated and we'll have to live with it like the flu.

You could gate it several ways:

>X% of population is vaccinated (and/or >Y% of vulnerable population)

<Z% positivity rate

<N hospitalizations

Or some combination of the above.

[Holmes]

Masks slow the spread of the virus, they don’t eliminate it. 💀

[IAMCANADIAN]

I think Texas and Mississippi were too quick to remove restrictions, but when is the right time to lift them? It seems like the virus won't be truly eradicated and we'll have to live with it like the flu.

Once enough people are vaccinated or at least everyone who wants to take a shot has been offered one. I don't know why people make such a big deal out of that. Wearing a mask while going into a store or wherever keeping a distance to strangers is not possible isn't that hard. Of course it's annoying to wear, but it helps save lives. And I'd much rather wear a mask than being on ICU or dead.

If masks are so effective in containing the spread of coronavirus, it should not be a big deal if mask mandates are allowed to expire.  You will still be able to go about wearing a mask, while continuing to take measures recommended by your health unit or the WHO.  Mask wearing isn't going to be banned.

I think most pro mask people are well aware that masks have minimal impact of controlling the spread of Coronavirus. They just need to make sure that everyone complies for the symbolic purpose of "showing that we care".