COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[BudgieForce]

https://twitter.com/jakecoco/status/1334993874276786178?s=20
how much longer will politicians expect they can have their rules be followed when they are making these decisions ?

Context?

Outdoor dining is banned in Los Angeles, except apparently if you are making a big budget movie.

Optics aside, it's guaranteed that the production staff on that movie will be tested at least once a week. They might also be bubbled or forced to quarantine at home during production.

How do I know? Because my father works for a production company and recently worked on something that required weekly testing and self quarantine.

It absolutely sucks that restaurants are hurting and I disagree with the ban on outdoor dining, but its not an apples to apples comparison.

[BudgieForce]

New ‘worrying’ Covid strain found in South Africa is ‘more severe among young adults'

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1374779/covid-strain-latest-new-coronavirus-variant-south-africa-young-adults

501.V2 may cause more critical illness among young people with no comorbidities. I don't see any statistics yet.

Could you post a source thats not a British tabloid?

[BudgieForce]

I'm pretty shocked at how anti-teachers union some of the center right politicos I follow have gotten. Apparently the teachers unions have compromised the CDC and thats why schools aren't opened(or something like that). I've had to start unfollowing some of these people because its gotten so deranged(looking at you Josh Kraushaar).

[BudgieForce]

https://mobile.twitter.com/PatrickRuffini/status/1361305516866174984


I can't handle all the bad takes.

[BudgieForce]

Sorry for the double post:

The right is screaming about Biden being "beholden" to the teachers union. The left is pissed Biden is sending teachers back into "dangerous" environments.

I do not envy the tight rope Biden has to walk on this issue. Hopefully all schools are opened by September.

[BudgieForce]

I think if everything goes well, schools should be mostly opened in the coming months. I'm just getting frustrated with the bad faith arguments, mostly from the right.

It seems like people have a hard time understanding that neither Biden nor The CDC control if a school is opened or closed. All they can do is provide guidance. I doubt most school districts will even use that guidance when determining how they open.

It's my fault for continuing to follow these people but it's gotten ridiculous.

[BudgieForce]

I think if everything goes well, schools should be mostly opened in the coming months. I'm just getting frustrated with the bad faith arguments, mostly from the right.

It seems like people have a hard time understanding that neither Biden nor The CDC control if a school is opened or closed. All they can do is provide guidance. I doubt most school districts will even use that guidance when determining how they open.

It's my fault for continuing to follow these people but it's gotten ridiculous.

There's no bad faith argument from the right. We just want our kids back in school FFS. We've destroyed so many kids development for a virus that (STATISTICALLY, ON AVERAGE) doesn't have much impact on children....

"Teachers unions have compromised The CDC and The Biden Administration, thereby preventing schools from opening"

Thats a bad faith argument.

[BudgieForce]

Biden's goal was to reopen schools within the first 100 days. There's still time for that to happen.

Biden's "goal" of opening a *majority of K-8 schools within the first 100 days (right in time for summer vacation!) is not very aspirational

Under promise and over deliver.

A hard learned concept from the Obama years.

[BudgieForce]

For some reason Virginia recorded record deaths totals each of the last two days, without any real explanation. 

I wouldn’t be surprised if week-over-week cases see a slightly increase the next couple days even if the overall trend remains downward given the holiday last weekend.

Backlog perhaps?

[BudgieForce]

https://twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/1364574303702962176

If I'm reading right, the J&J vaccine has a 65% efficiency rate but a 100% rate at preventing hospitalizations.

Honestly, it's not a bad trade off for just one shot. I'd probably prioritize Moderna and Pfizer for older and sicker people while giving the J&J vaccine to young and healthy individuals.

[BudgieForce]

I'm not sure if this article by Dr. Julia Marcus has been posted here yet, but it crystalizes a lot of the feelings I've had about how the messaging re: vaccines has been totally mishandled. I hope in the next few weeks we'll have better guidance from the CDC, because telling people "do nothing differently" is not a way to drive vaccination rates up, even if it is the only 100% sure way of risk mitigation. (As Marcus points out, "trying to eliminate even the lowest-risk changes in behavior both underestimates people’s need to be close to one another and discourages the very thing that will get everyone out of this mess: vaccine uptake.")

Thoughts from anyone smarter than I? Am I misreading the whole situation?

It hasn't been a serious problem yet, demand for vaccine still outstrips supply but it was extremely stupid to discourage the vaccine so much.

I get that being overly pessimistic isn't helpful but what?

[BudgieForce]

Uhhhh...why all the red?

There was a lot going on last week that probably artificially lowered numbers.

[BudgieForce]

It very much looks like the decline has stalled but I think we should wait until next week before freaking out.

Last week provided many opportunities for cases and deaths to artificially decline.

[BudgieForce]

In the end, people who opposed lockdowns and masks but supported vaccines are going to be vindicated. Their stance was the pandemic playbook that was in force before 2020, and should have been followed all along.

Why would people who oppose masks be vindicated?

[BudgieForce]

Why would people who oppose masks be vindicated?

Lockdowns and masks clearly don't work, but it appears as if vaccines do.

Masks do work. They're multiple studies that say they work. The problem is that not everyone wears them.

[BudgieForce]

Did anyone mention how various governors are starting to relax restrictions now? (Mostly Republican governors, though. Even Northeastern ones!)

Even democratic governors are relaxing restrictions. I'm also reading about more and more schools opening up in heavily democratic areas(Detroit for example).

[BudgieForce]

I still keep hearing about restrictions expanding. Someone posted on another forum that a bunch of high schools in their area canceled sports for next fall.

That seems like a safe bet if cases aren't lower by fall.

What I'm mostly referring to is schools actually opening. For example, Detroit just announced their schools are opening on March 8th.

[BudgieForce]

We had such large declines the last few days that it's kind of disappointing seeing a red number again. Still, one day is not a trend so I won't read too much into it. 

[BudgieForce]

I am seeing a lot of left wing attacks on the Johnson and Johnson vaccine.....

that is not the messaging we need

Don't worry about it.....

Yes I am going to worry about it because the last thing we need are lefties refusing to take Johnson and Johnson vaccines when about 1/3 of Republicans and 1/3 of minorities will refuse to take vaccines at all.

Where?  And what are the attacks?

I've seen some left politicians get upset that minority communities might not have Moderna or Pfizer as options when they get the vaccine since they have a higher effective rate. But I haven't seen anyone directly attack the J&J vaccine.

[BudgieForce]

The worst is over *IF* the major vaccines work on all the variants. The P.1 variant coming out of Brazil right now is highly disturbing.

Funny you should mention that because Oxford just came out with a study that said the current vaccines likely work against the Brazilian strain.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-brazil-oxford/existing-covid-vaccines-may-protect-against-brazilian-variant-oxford-study-idUSKBN2BA16K

Why it's so important to get everyone vaccinated.

[BudgieForce]

Before anyone panics, I think Kentucky might have posted a backlog.

They went from 27 deaths yesterday to 448 deaths today.

[BudgieForce]

Any of our regular Kentuckian posters know why Kentucky saw such a massive surge today? Like I said, I assume its a backlog but I can't find anything online about it.

Nursing homes maybe?

edit: Found it.

Kentucky adds 604 coronavirus-related deaths to its total after state audit

https://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/2021/03/18/kentucky-adding-604-covid-19-deaths-its-total-after-state-audit/4755735001/