COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

!!

We seem to be nearing the end of the COVID pandemic in the United States and its territories.

The fact that the week-to-week case numbers are still consistently declining even in spite of the end of mask mandates is an incredibly positive sign. The vaccines are working spectacularly, and enough of the country is vaccinated that even if some unvaccinated people are choosing not to wear a mask, the numbers are likely to keep declining. Just a massive turnaround from where things were at the start of the year.

I've still been wearing my mask in public places for the last two weeks just out of an abundance of caution, even though I've been vaccinated since early March, but seeing the declining case numbers continue to play out the way they have means I will now unquestionably feel safe not wearing one going forward. What a relief.

[It’s so Joever]

This is basically the Covid-thread equivalent of Atlas forgetting about the blue mirage with mail in ballots.

It will be fun to watch the reactions when a slight correction likely happens and suddenly everyone will doom. And then it will go back to what we expected, a steady decline.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Went to a movie theater for the first time today (Albeit not for a movie but for AEW Double or Nothing). Great experience and it felt good not having anxiety by the enclosed air circulation. Though I did find it odd how mask-wearing was required for entry even though there's no way of enforcing it

It's a shame that social distancing measures may be ending soon as I quite liked not having folks directly around me. I guess I can manage if I pick a weekday afternoon to see a movie. Expanded outdoor dining, on the other hand, I hope is here to say.

Hopefully I can go to an Angel game sometime in the next 2 weeks. Looks like a similarly neat experience.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 5/31 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE:What's the overall change in the total?

Brackets []: These represent the total change for the day, including backlogged reports, if any.

• These numbers are inflated relative to the actual reports for the day, so they are not used to calculate the comparative percentage shifts.

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5/23: <Sunday>

• Cases: 33,896,381 (+14,048 | ΔW Change: ↓21.23% | Σ Increase: ↑0.04%)
• Deaths: 604,087 (+211 | ΔW Change: ↓25.70% | Σ Increase: ↑0.03%)

5/24: <M>

• Cases: 33,922,937 (+19,866 [+26,556] | ΔW Change: ↓20.63% | Σ Increase: ↑0.08%)
• Deaths: 604,416 (+329 | ΔW Change: ↓10.84% | Σ Increase: ↑0.05%)

5/25: <T>

• Cases: 33,947,189 (+24,252 | ΔW Change: ↓11.83% | Σ Increase: ↑0.07%)
• Deaths: 605,208 (+669 [+792] | ΔW Change: ↓16.06% | Σ Increase: ↑0.13%)

5/26: <W>

• Cases: 33,971,207 (+24,018 | ΔW Change: ↓7.92% | Σ Increase: ↑0.07%)
• Deaths: 606,179 (+668 [+971] | ΔW Change: ↑16.06% | Σ Increase: ↑0.16%)

5/27: <Þ>

• Cases: 33,999,680 (+24,393 [+28,473] | ΔW Change: ↓20.95% | Σ Increase: ↑0.08%)
• Deaths: 607,726 (+630 [+1,547] | ΔW Change: ↓5.55% | Σ Increase: ↑0.26%)

5/28: <F>

• Cases: 34,022,386 (+22,706 | ΔW Change: ↓22.29% | Σ Increase: ↑0.07%)
• Deaths: 608,956 (+669 [+1,230] | ΔW Change: ↑1.83% | Σ Increase: ↑0.20%)

5/29: <S>

• Cases: 34,034,946 (+12,560 | ΔW Change: ↓37.00% | Σ Increase: ↑0.04%)
• Deaths: 609,420 (+464 | ΔW Change: ↓0.85% | Σ Increase: ↑0.08%)

5/30 (Yesterday): <Sunday>

• Cases: 34,043,068 (+7,750 [+8,122] | ΔW Change: ↓44.83% | Σ Increase: ↑0.02%)
• Deaths: 609,544 (+124 | ΔW Change: ↓41.23% | Σ Increase: ↑0.02%)

5/31 (Today-Holiday): <M>

• Cases: 34,113,146 (+8,135 [+70,078] | ΔW Change: ↓59.05% | Σ Increase: ↑0.21%)
• Deaths: 609,767 (+132 [+223] | ΔW Change: ↓59.88% | Σ Increase: ↑0.04%)

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Corona Scanner just reported over 60,000 phantom cases. The rolling averages are going to be off for a few days.

[Dr. Arch]

Corona Scanner just reported over 60,000 phantom cases. The rolling averages are going to be off for a few days.

I account for that, so my numbers will not be off from actual reported cases.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/GovRonDeSantis/status/1398061918204596228

Role model Trumpian Corona Populist.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/kerpen/status/1397253170380689410

Yes. The difference between D and R is that

• Democrats mostly have worn a mask often/all the time despite the science, in according to CNN. All for nothing.
• Republicans mostly has worn a mask when one needs to, according to science, despite to CNN false recommendation. Common sense.

_{Same about re-opening of the schools.}


It reminds me of Nate Silver's observation/anecdote.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1385199695958614018

25% outdoors is wa-a-a-ay too much, but after a year of lies about masks, it's understandable.

[emailking]

VRB, are you trying to say that, all else being equal, wearing a mask while infected with Covid does not reduce the risk of spreading the disease to someone else?

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

VRB, are you trying to say that, all else being equal, wearing a mask while infected with Covid does not reduce the risk of spreading the disease to someone else?

Sigh... No, I'm saying that you shouldn't have killed the economy by imposing totally ineffective mask mandates, though the schools closures/no fast re-openings were even more stupidly anti-science and devastating for kids.

Science has been pretty clear. You only needs mask if you can't keep a physical distancing [99%] inside. And basically it is what people have done in states with no mask mandate/less restrictions. And now you have the data, that shows that there is no significant difference between less och more restricted states. That is that the [mostly Democrat] states with more restrictions kept poors, especially kids, down in vain.

[soundchaser]

How do mask mandates "kill the economy," exactly? I can understand being anti-lockdown for those reasons, but I can't see what negative effect masks had economically.

[It’s so Joever]

We hit a nice milestone today thanks to the data dump, the city (and county) of San Francisco has now fully vaccinated over 60% of its population. Although some midsized counties such as Sumter, FL and Cumberland, ME had passed this threshold a few days ago, SF county is the first true urban county to hit this milestone.
Other counties which passed 60% of the total population fully vaccinated today include: Knox ME, Tompkins NY (Ithaca), San Juan WA, and Dane WI (Madison)

In the meantime, the areas with less than 30% of the population fully vaccinated are decreasing steadily and continue to remain largely rural counties in the South, and a small but shrinking band of Great Plains counties.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

A long thread about effectiveness of restrictions.


https://twitter.com/youyanggu/status/1397230161926496265

[...]

https://twitter.com/youyanggu/status/1397282110264782853

[Bandit3 the Worker]

How do mask mandates "kill the economy," exactly? I can understand being anti-lockdown for those reasons, but I can't see what negative effect masks had economically.

People are really discouraged from visiting businesses if they're forced to wear a mask.

Even at my local Kroger, I've noticed business has soared since they loosened mask rules.

[emailking]

VRB, are you trying to say that, all else being equal, wearing a mask while infected with Covid does not reduce the risk of spreading the disease to someone else?

Sigh... No, I'm saying that you shouldn't have killed the economy by imposing totally ineffective mask mandates, though the schools closures/no fast re-openings were even more stupidly anti-science and devastating for kids.

Science has been pretty clear. You only needs mask if you can't keep a physical distancing [99%] inside. And basically it is what people have done in states with no mask mandate/less restrictions. And now you have the data, that shows that there is no significant difference between less och more restricted states. That is that the [mostly Democrat] states with more restrictions kept poors, especially kids, down in vain.

So you're saying we shouldn't have had mask mandates because people did what needed to do whether there was a mask mandate or not? What does it even matter then? If you're saying there shouldn't have been mask mandates for outside because of the science then ok. I don't think many places had that, and I don't see how it killed the economy.

[emailking]

How do mask mandates "kill the economy," exactly? I can understand being anti-lockdown for those reasons, but I can't see what negative effect masks had economically.

People are really discouraged from visiting businesses if they're forced to wear a mask.

Even at my local Kroger, I've noticed business has soared since they loosened mask rules.

But VRB's point seems to be that people wore the masks inside whether there was a mandate or not.

[emailking]

Science has been pretty clear. You only needs mask if you can't keep a physical distancing [99%] inside. And basically it is what people have done in states with no mask mandate/less restrictions.

Or are you saying in stores you can keep physical distancing? Hasn't been my experience, at least not the whole time.

[Hammy]

How do mask mandates "kill the economy," exactly? I can understand being anti-lockdown for those reasons, but I can't see what negative effect masks had economically.

"It'll kill the economy" has long been used by people who oppose things as a kneejerk reaction because their favorite talking heads told them to. It's a sign they have no real argument.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 6/1 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE:What's the overall change in the total?

Brackets []: These represent the total change for the day, including backlogged reports, if any.

• These numbers are inflated relative to the actual reports for the day, so they are not used to calculate the comparative percentage shifts.

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5/23: <Sunday>

• Cases: 33,896,381 (+14,048 | ΔW Change: ↓21.23% | Σ Increase: ↑0.04%)
• Deaths: 604,087 (+211 | ΔW Change: ↓25.70% | Σ Increase: ↑0.03%)

5/24: <M>

• Cases: 33,922,937 (+19,866 [+26,556] | ΔW Change: ↓20.63% | Σ Increase: ↑0.08%)
• Deaths: 604,416 (+329 | ΔW Change: ↓10.84% | Σ Increase: ↑0.05%)

5/25: <T>

• Cases: 33,947,189 (+24,252 | ΔW Change: ↓11.83% | Σ Increase: ↑0.07%)
• Deaths: 605,208 (+669 [+792] | ΔW Change: ↓16.06% | Σ Increase: ↑0.13%)

5/26: <W>

• Cases: 33,971,207 (+24,018 | ΔW Change: ↓7.92% | Σ Increase: ↑0.07%)
• Deaths: 606,179 (+668 [+971] | ΔW Change: ↑16.06% | Σ Increase: ↑0.16%)

5/27: <Þ>

• Cases: 33,999,680 (+24,393 [+28,473] | ΔW Change: ↓20.95% | Σ Increase: ↑0.08%)
• Deaths: 607,726 (+630 [+1,547] | ΔW Change: ↓5.55% | Σ Increase: ↑0.26%)

5/28: <F>

• Cases: 34,022,386 (+22,706 | ΔW Change: ↓22.29% | Σ Increase: ↑0.07%)
• Deaths: 608,956 (+669 [+1,230] | ΔW Change: ↑1.83% | Σ Increase: ↑0.20%)

5/29: <S>

• Cases: 34,034,946 (+12,560 | ΔW Change: ↓37.00% | Σ Increase: ↑0.04%)
• Deaths: 609,420 (+464 | ΔW Change: ↓0.85% | Σ Increase: ↑0.08%)

5/30: <Sunday>

• Cases: 34,043,068 (+7,750 [+8,122] | ΔW Change: ↓44.83% | Σ Increase: ↑0.02%)
• Deaths: 609,544 (+124 | ΔW Change: ↓41.23% | Σ Increase: ↑0.02%)

5/31 (Yesterday-Holiday): <M>

• Cases: 34,113,146 (+8,135 [+70,078] | ΔW Change: ↓59.05% | Σ Increase: ↑0.21%)
• Deaths: 609,767 (+132 [+223] | ΔW Change: ↓59.88% | Σ Increase: ↑0.04%)

6/1 (Today): <T>

• Cases: 34,136,738 (+12,976 [+23,592] | ΔW Change: ↓46.50% | Σ Increase: ↑0.07%)
• Deaths: 610,432 (+287 [+665] | ΔW Change: ↓57.10% | Σ Increase: ↑0.11%)

[roxas11]

VRB, are you trying to say that, all else being equal, wearing a mask while infected with Covid does not reduce the risk of spreading the disease to someone else?

Sigh... No, I'm saying that you shouldn't have killed the economy by imposing totally ineffective mask mandates, though the schools closures/no fast re-openings were even more stupidly anti-science and devastating for kids.

Science has been pretty clear. You only needs mask if you can't keep a physical distancing [99%] inside. And basically it is what people have done in states with no mask mandate/less restrictions. And now you have the data, that shows that there is no significant difference between less och more restricted states. That is that the [mostly Democrat] states with more restrictions kept poors, especially kids, down in vain.

With this 1 line Vaccinated Russian Bear managed to undermine what was otherwise a solid argument when it came to showing what the science actually shows us about mask. Being against the lockdown measures is 1 thing, but claiming that the mask mandates was responsible for killing the economy is ridiculous lol

If anything I think the trump himself would have been politically better off had he actually pushed the mask mandates as an alternative to the lockdowns. ​trump then could have easily used his super pro mask stance as a way to shield himself from democrats attacks and he could have gone after Dems as being a pro lockdown while claiming that he is the one fighting to keep the county open

Bottom line Vaccinated Russian Bear did help himself at all with that silly mask mandates killed the economy claim

[emailking]

Whoa that's a huge decrease today. But I guess it's just because of the holiday? Still it's significantly bigger than the decrease on the actual holiday.

[Dr. Arch]

Whoa that's a huge decrease today. But I guess it's just because of the holiday? Still it's significantly bigger than the decrease on the actual holiday.

Yeah, today's not a holiday, and the backlog is being reported slowly. It's a big decrease regardless. Every state reported today, as far as I can tell (assuming that the blanks are the functional equivalent of 0 today).

[Horus]

VRB, are you trying to say that, all else being equal, wearing a mask while infected with Covid does not reduce the risk of spreading the disease to someone else?

Sigh... No, I'm saying that you shouldn't have killed the economy by imposing totally ineffective mask mandates, though the schools closures/no fast re-openings were even more stupidly anti-science and devastating for kids.

Science has been pretty clear. You only needs mask if you can't keep a physical distancing [99%] inside. And basically it is what people have done in states with no mask mandate/less restrictions. And now you have the data, that shows that there is no significant difference between less och more restricted states. That is that the [mostly Democrat] states with more restrictions kept poors, especially kids, down in vain.

With this 1 line Vaccinated Russian Bear managed to undermine what was otherwise a solid argument when it came to showing what the science actually shows us about mask. Being against the lockdown measures is 1 thing, but claiming that the mask mandates was responsible for killing the economy is ridiculous lol

If anything I think the trump himself would have been politically better off had he actually pushed the mask mandates as an alternative to the lockdowns. ​trump then could have easily used his super pro mask stance as a way to shield himself from democrats attacks and he could have gone after Dems as being a pro lockdown while claiming that he is the one fighting to keep the county open

Bottom line Vaccinated Russian Bear did help himself at all with that silly mask mandates killed the economy claim

I forget who, but someone said if Trump had simply mailed a pack of masks to every household last March he would've won. And that could very well be true.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

7-day positives crashed down to 2.09% yesterday.

Unfortunately they went back up today because of those 60,000 phantom cases on Corona Scanner.

[It’s so Joever]

VRB, are you trying to say that, all else being equal, wearing a mask while infected with Covid does not reduce the risk of spreading the disease to someone else?

Sigh... No, I'm saying that you shouldn't have killed the economy by imposing totally ineffective mask mandates, though the schools closures/no fast re-openings were even more stupidly anti-science and devastating for kids.

Science has been pretty clear. You only needs mask if you can't keep a physical distancing [99%] inside. And basically it is what people have done in states with no mask mandate/less restrictions. And now you have the data, that shows that there is no significant difference between less och more restricted states. That is that the [mostly Democrat] states with more restrictions kept poors, especially kids, down in vain.

With this 1 line Vaccinated Russian Bear managed to undermine what was otherwise a solid argument when it came to showing what the science actually shows us about mask. Being against the lockdown measures is 1 thing, but claiming that the mask mandates was responsible for killing the economy is ridiculous lol

If anything I think the trump himself would have been politically better off had he actually pushed the mask mandates as an alternative to the lockdowns. ​trump then could have easily used his super pro mask stance as a way to shield himself from democrats attacks and he could have gone after Dems as being a pro lockdown while claiming that he is the one fighting to keep the county open

Bottom line Vaccinated Russian Bear did help himself at all with that silly mask mandates killed the economy claim

I forget who, but someone said if Trump had simply mailed a pack of masks to every household last March he would've won. And that could very well be true.

Trump could have easily played the “protect American lives against the commievirus” book. It was so simple. He could have smeared Democrats as being open border and spreading Covid during the bombing riots. But no, instead he threw away the ace up his sleeve.