COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[ꙮ]

https://twitter.com/nycjim/status/1361344667405680646

The only good Republican is a Republican powerless to abuse anyone else.

I fail to see a problem with this. Why should they get special treatment without doing work that requires it?

[Hammy]

https://twitter.com/nycjim/status/1361344667405680646

The only good Republican is a Republican powerless to abuse anyone else.

I fail to see a problem with this. Why should they get special treatment without doing work that requires it?

The problem is, at least implied by the headline, they won't be vaccinated until after schools have reopened when they should be vaccinated before, in order to give enough time for immunities to build.

Not to mention, as is always the case, they're specifically targeting largely minority-populated urban centers with this policy.

[TJ in Oregon]

That's because inner city districts are basically the only ones in Ohio that are not already having in-person instruction:


Source: Ohio Department of Education

Gov. DeWine (smartly) has realized that this is creating two different standards for education, one half-hearted token version for poor inner-city students online, and one in person socially distanced version that is almost back to normal for everyone else. By requiring schools to reopen, he is trying to eliminate the double standard.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Really glad to hear that since Jan 1, daily case numbers in the USA have dropped from 300,000 per day to 50,000.

Hopefully this vaccine knocks it on its head and my US friends are safe for good.

I cannot imagine what you guys have been through, but I am happy that you are now seeing the end of this pandemic.

Stay safe

[GP270watch]

Really glad to hear that since Jan 1, daily case numbers in the USA have dropped from 300,000 per day to 50,000.

Hopefully this vaccine knocks it on its head and my US friends are safe for good.

I cannot imagine what you guys have been through, but I am happy that you are now seeing the end of this pandemic.

Stay safe

 The news is encouraging but not time to let our guard down.

[Dr. Arch]

Really glad to hear that since Jan 1, daily case numbers in the USA have dropped from 300,000 per day to 50,000.

Hopefully this vaccine knocks it on its head and my US friends are safe for good.

I cannot imagine what you guys have been through, but I am happy that you are now seeing the end of this pandemic.

Stay safe

 The news is encouraging but not time to let our guard down.

Now's the time to dig deep and keep those numbers low while amping up vaccine distribution. We stand a chance to eradicate the thing.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Here's a good new article from Vox by an epidemiologist summarizing the scientific evidence about covid transmission in schools:

https://www.vox.com/2021/2/15/22280763/kids-covid-vaccine-teachers-unions-schools-reopening-cdc

Everyone who was criticizing virus skeptics last year for not listening to the scientists and doctors should start following their own advice on the issue of school reopening.

Lately I've been hearing a bunch of arguments from people who are irrationally afraid of covid in schools based on conspiracy theories and speculation completely unsupported by evidence.  This can be just as damaging as conspiracies and irrational arguments on the other side like "Plandemic" or the collodial silver cure.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

https://twitter.com/nycjim/status/1361344667405680646

The only good Republican is a Republican powerless to abuse anyone else.

Good on Mike DeWine for showing some balls.

[roxas11]

Here's a good new article from Vox by an epidemiologist summarizing the scientific evidence about covid transmission in schools:

https://www.vox.com/2021/2/15/22280763/kids-covid-vaccine-teachers-unions-schools-reopening-cdc

Everyone who was criticizing virus skeptics last year for not listening to the scientists and doctors should start following their own advice on the issue of school reopening.

Lately I've been hearing a bunch of arguments from people who are irrationally afraid of covid in schools based on conspiracy theories and speculation completely unsupported by evidence.  This can be just as damaging as conspiracies and irrational arguments on the other side like "Plandemic" or the collodial silver cure.

There are people who are forced to go to work and put their lives on the line everyday since this coivd craziness started.

If Nurses, Doctors, and everybody else do not get to say "They will not show up for work unless it is safe" than neither should these teachers. I'm sorry but at this point if you are that afraid of stepping back into a classroom than Maybe it is simply time to find a new line of work

Here is the harsh reality for the teachers union
The second Biden passes his Covid bill a lot of Dems will use that as political cover to go after them a lot more aggressively than they currently are right now.

Its one thing for them to close down the schools based on what the the science said at the time.
Its another to keep them closed when the science now makes its clear that they can be safely reopen. It is time for the teachers union to either listen to the science or face a growing backlash against them from both the left and the right

[emailking]

Is the issue that they want to stay closed until they get the early vaccine and DeWine is saying you have to be open first? If the latter, I see where they're coming from at least. But I'm not saying it outweighs reopening schools. Really we just need to get these people vaccinated ASAP.

[Dr. Arch]

If you want to reopen schools, just prioritize all teachers, staff, and admin, and rush it. That's really all there is. The vaccine exists. Distribute it to this subset of folks. It's not that hard.

It's incredibly shortsighted to force in-person school openings without doing the former first.

[Inmate Trump]

I know nobody really knows, but are we likely coming down from the worst of the pandemic?

Or do we expect to see cases skyrocket again to November-December-January levels or worse at some point in the future?

[Lief 🗽]

Unless there is some variant that totally evades the vaccine, which I understand is very unlikely, I don't think we'll get back to November-December-January levels ever again.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I know nobody really knows, but are we likely coming down from the worst of the pandemic?

Or do we expect to see cases skyrocket again to November-December-January levels or worse at some point in the future?

Don't quote me on this but I am under the impression that if we can through Easter without a spike this time I think we may be in good shape. It's always the holidays that mark an increase in cases and deaths.

[Torrain]

I know nobody really knows, but are we likely coming down from the worst of the pandemic?

Or do we expect to see cases skyrocket again to November-December-January levels or worse at some point in the future?

Don't quote me on this but I am under the impression that if we can through Easter without a spike this time I think we may be in good shape. It's always the holidays that mark an increase in cases and deaths.

I’m under the impression that until herd immunity is achieved via vaccination, outbreaks will continue to occur, spiking every few months.

Here, whenever restrictions were lifted, they had to be brought back within months, because cases were spiralling out of control again. Even with social distancing and mask mandates inside buildings, opening shops and recreational areas (gyms, cinemas etc) lead to a second wave with increased deaths, cases when compared to the initial wave.

If the US keeps vaccinating at its current rate, and keeps a decent level of restrictions in place,  the autumn should look a lot more normal - and 2022 should look more like 2019.

I may be wrong (I’m a molecular virology guy, rather than an epidemiologist), but I’m just working with the data I have.

[Lief 🗽]

At least in Israel and the United States I think the vaccine + antibodies will get us pretty close to herd immunity within the next 2-3 months (maybe UK too depending on the one shot strategy). So hopefully we reach that stage (or close enough that transmission is still dramatically reduced) before the next spike. Europe may have to go through another pretty bad Spring though.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 2/16 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

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2/7: <Sunday>

• Cases: 27,611,403 (+91,767 | ΔW Change: ↓9.58% | Σ Increase: ↑0.33%)
• Deaths: 474,933 (+1,405 | ΔW Change: ↓25.97% | Σ Increase: ↑0.30%)

2/8: <M>

• Cases: 27,700,629 (+89,226 | ΔW Change: ↓38.10% | Σ Increase: ↑0.32%)
• Deaths: 476,405 (+1,472 | ΔW Change: ↓23.89% | Σ Increase: ↑0.31%)

2/9: <T>

• Cases: 27,799,756 (+99,127 | ΔW Change: ↓14.53% | Σ Increase: ↑0.36%)
• Deaths: 479,772 (+3,367 | ΔW Change: ↓7.58% | Σ Increase: ↑0.71%)

2/10: <W>

• Cases: 27,897,214 (+97,458 | ΔW Change: ↓20.84% | Σ Increase: ↑0.35%)
• Deaths: 483,200 (+3,428 | ΔW Change: ↓15.86% | Σ Increase: ↑0.71%)

2/11: <Þ>

• Cases: 28,002,240 (+105,026 | ΔW Change: ↓14.91% | Σ Increase: ↑0.38%)
• Deaths: 486,922 (+3,722 | ΔW Change: ↓26.41% | Σ Increase: ↑0.77%)

2/12: <F>

• Cases: 28,106,704 (+104,464 | ΔW Change: ↓21.71% | Σ Increase: ↑0.37%)
• Deaths: 492,521 (+2,908 [+5,599] | ΔW Change: ↓14.90% | Σ Increase: ↑1.15%)

2/13: <S>

• Cases: 28,196,964 (+90,260 | ΔW Change: ↓19.63% | Σ Increase: ↑0.32%)
• Deaths: 496,063 (+2,272 [+3,542] | ΔW Change: ↓19.52% | Σ Increase: ↑0.72%)

2/14: <Sunday>

• Cases: 28,261,470 (+64,506 | ΔW Change: ↓29.71% | Σ Increase: ↑0.23%)
• Deaths: 497,174 (+1,111 | ΔW Change: ↓20.93% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)

2/15 (Yesterday): <M>

• Cases: 28,317,703 (+56,233 | ΔW Change: ↓36.98% | Σ Increase: ↑0.20%)
• Deaths: 498,203 (+1,029 | ΔW Change: ↓30.10% | Σ Increase: ↑0.21%)

2/16 (Today): <T>

• Cases: 28,381,220 (+63,517 | ΔW Change: ↓35.92% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)
• Deaths: 499,991 (+1,788 | ΔW Change: ↓46.90% | Σ Increase: ↑0.36%)

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 2/16 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

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2/7: <Sunday>

• Cases: 27,611,403 (+91,767 | ΔW Change: ↓9.58% | Σ Increase: ↑0.33%)
• Deaths: 474,933 (+1,405 | ΔW Change: ↓25.97% | Σ Increase: ↑0.30%)

2/8: <M>

• Cases: 27,700,629 (+89,226 | ΔW Change: ↓38.10% | Σ Increase: ↑0.32%)
• Deaths: 476,405 (+1,472 | ΔW Change: ↓23.89% | Σ Increase: ↑0.31%)

2/9: <T>

• Cases: 27,799,756 (+99,127 | ΔW Change: ↓14.53% | Σ Increase: ↑0.36%)
• Deaths: 479,772 (+3,367 | ΔW Change: ↓7.58% | Σ Increase: ↑0.71%)

2/10: <W>

• Cases: 27,897,214 (+97,458 | ΔW Change: ↓20.84% | Σ Increase: ↑0.35%)
• Deaths: 483,200 (+3,428 | ΔW Change: ↓15.86% | Σ Increase: ↑0.71%)

2/11: <Þ>

• Cases: 28,002,240 (+105,026 | ΔW Change: ↓14.91% | Σ Increase: ↑0.38%)
• Deaths: 486,922 (+3,722 | ΔW Change: ↓26.41% | Σ Increase: ↑0.77%)

2/12: <F>

• Cases: 28,106,704 (+104,464 | ΔW Change: ↓21.71% | Σ Increase: ↑0.37%)
• Deaths: 492,521 (+2,908 [+5,599] | ΔW Change: ↓14.90% | Σ Increase: ↑1.15%)

2/13: <S>

• Cases: 28,196,964 (+90,260 | ΔW Change: ↓19.63% | Σ Increase: ↑0.32%)
• Deaths: 496,063 (+2,272 [+3,542] | ΔW Change: ↓19.52% | Σ Increase: ↑0.72%)

2/14: <Sunday>

• Cases: 28,261,470 (+64,506 | ΔW Change: ↓29.71% | Σ Increase: ↑0.23%)
• Deaths: 497,174 (+1,111 | ΔW Change: ↓20.93% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)

2/15 (Yesterday): <M>

• Cases: 28,317,703 (+56,233 | ΔW Change: ↓36.98% | Σ Increase: ↑0.20%)
• Deaths: 498,203 (+1,029 | ΔW Change: ↓30.10% | Σ Increase: ↑0.21%)

2/16 (Today): <T>

• Cases: 28,381,220 (+63,517 | ΔW Change: ↓35.92% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)
• Deaths: 499,991 (+1,788 | ΔW Change: ↓46.90% | Σ Increase: ↑0.36%)

Look at all that beautiful green. I hope all is doing better by the end of March, I really wanna watch Godzilla vs. Kong in IMAX.

[lfromnj]

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/17/us/schools-reopening-west-coast.html?smid=tw-share

Vaccines for teachers are important but its utter insanity to offer some 30 year old teacher a vaccine before the elderly. And then in the end they don't even go back to school.

Worried that schools would not reopen until the 2021-22 school year if she waited to vaccinate teachers along with other essential workers, Ms. Brown rejected federal guidelines and bumped school employees up in priority, before people 65 and older, even though that constituency would — and did — protest.

I can agree with an overall bump up in priority but it should be a shift. A 30 year old teacher is very low risk. However a 60 year old teacher should probably get it before some 65 year old retiree who is isolated.

Is there any data showing that teachers are more likely to catch the virus than other in person workers?

[Horus]

Numbers look great, vaccines are doing well, and we have adults running the country again. It's now time to open up the rest of the schools.

[ilikeverin]

Numbers look great

This is something I really want to push back against. It's absolutely true that the trends in numbers are good. They're fantastic, actually. But the absolute numbers still aren't promising. In many places, cases are still quite a bit higher than they were last summer. Here in Erie County, COVID-19 Projections estimated that about 100 people a day were getting infected last summer; as of the beginning of the month, they estimated that number was about 600 people a day. Cases are getting better, but they were off of a huge peak, so they're still quite dire.

I think this is separate from the discussion of schools reopening; I think there's been good (and, in my mind, fairly convincing) arguments that schools are not major infection vectors when administered properly (we can look internationally to really see this). But just because the trend is good doesn't mean the absolute level is good, and I don't think the trend should be used to justify reopening anything.

Is there any data showing that teachers are more likely to catch the virus than other in person workers?

It's not clear in the US context.

[jamestroll]

Its always amusing. All the reopening debate. The reality is  most places in the United States are open except mass gatherings.  Capacities just vary.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 2/17 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

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2/7: <Sunday>

• Cases: 27,611,403 (+91,767 | ΔW Change: ↓9.58% | Σ Increase: ↑0.33%)
• Deaths: 474,933 (+1,405 | ΔW Change: ↓25.97% | Σ Increase: ↑0.30%)

2/8: <M>

• Cases: 27,700,629 (+89,226 | ΔW Change: ↓38.10% | Σ Increase: ↑0.32%)
• Deaths: 476,405 (+1,472 | ΔW Change: ↓23.89% | Σ Increase: ↑0.31%)

2/9: <T>

• Cases: 27,799,756 (+99,127 | ΔW Change: ↓14.53% | Σ Increase: ↑0.36%)
• Deaths: 479,772 (+3,367 | ΔW Change: ↓7.58% | Σ Increase: ↑0.71%)

2/10: <W>

• Cases: 27,897,214 (+97,458 | ΔW Change: ↓20.84% | Σ Increase: ↑0.35%)
• Deaths: 483,200 (+3,428 | ΔW Change: ↓15.86% | Σ Increase: ↑0.71%)

2/11: <Þ>

• Cases: 28,002,240 (+105,026 | ΔW Change: ↓14.91% | Σ Increase: ↑0.38%)
• Deaths: 486,922 (+3,722 | ΔW Change: ↓26.41% | Σ Increase: ↑0.77%)

2/12: <F>

• Cases: 28,106,704 (+104,464 | ΔW Change: ↓21.71% | Σ Increase: ↑0.37%)
• Deaths: 492,521 (+2,908 [+5,599] | ΔW Change: ↓14.90% | Σ Increase: ↑1.15%)

2/13: <S>

• Cases: 28,196,964 (+90,260 | ΔW Change: ↓19.63% | Σ Increase: ↑0.32%)
• Deaths: 496,063 (+2,272 [+3,542] | ΔW Change: ↓19.52% | Σ Increase: ↑0.72%)

2/14: <Sunday>

• Cases: 28,261,470 (+64,506 | ΔW Change: ↓29.71% | Σ Increase: ↑0.23%)
• Deaths: 497,174 (+1,111 | ΔW Change: ↓20.93% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)

2/15: <M>

• Cases: 28,317,703 (+56,233 | ΔW Change: ↓36.98% | Σ Increase: ↑0.20%)
• Deaths: 498,203 (+1,029 | ΔW Change: ↓30.10% | Σ Increase: ↑0.21%)

2/16 (Yesterday): <T>

• Cases: 28,381,220 (+63,517 | ΔW Change: ↓35.92% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)
• Deaths: 499,991 (+1,788 | ΔW Change: ↓46.90% | Σ Increase: ↑0.36%)

2/17 (Today): <W>

• Cases: 28,453,526 (+72,706 | ΔW Change: ↓25.40% | Σ Increase: ↑0.25%)
• Deaths: 502,544 (+2,553 | ΔW Change: ↓25.53% | Σ Increase: ↑0.51%)

[emailking]

US life expectancy dropped a full year in first half of 2020, according to CDC

Life expectancy in the US dropped a full year in the first half of 2020, according to a report published Thursday by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Center for Health Statistics. Experts say that Covid-19 was a significant factor contributing to the decline.

The life expectancy for the entire US population fell to 77.8 years, similar to what it was in 2006, CDC data shows.

Changes to life expectancy also widened racial and ethnic inequities. Compared to 2019, life expectancy for non-Hispanic Black people in the US fell about three times what it did for non-Hispanic White people, by 2.7 years. It fell by twice as much for Hispanic people, by 1.9 years.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/18/health/life-expectancy-fell-pandemic/index.html

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

US life expectancy dropped a full year in first half of 2020, according to CDC

Life expectancy in the US dropped a full year in the first half of 2020, according to a report published Thursday by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Center for Health Statistics. Experts say that Covid-19 was a significant factor contributing to the decline.

The life expectancy for the entire US population fell to 77.8 years, similar to what it was in 2006, CDC data shows.

Changes to life expectancy also widened racial and ethnic inequities. Compared to 2019, life expectancy for non-Hispanic Black people in the US fell about three times what it did for non-Hispanic White people, by 2.7 years. It fell by twice as much for Hispanic people, by 1.9 years.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/18/health/life-expectancy-fell-pandemic/index.html

I read this article, and I can’t understand where this calculation is coming from. 

Covid has killed about 0.15% of Americans.  If the deaths were equally spread across all age groups, whis would result in an overall decline in life expectancy of about 0.05 years.  And since the deaths were heavily weighted toward older people, this number is actually much, much lower. 

The article says it also accounts for things like drug overdoses and alcoholism as a result of the shut downs, but these would have to be like 100x more deadly than the actual virus for the total to make sense.