COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[Meclazine for Israel]

People are done listening to the "Lockdown! Lockdown! Lockdown!" types.

We wouldn’t have as big of a problem if people listened to them in the first place.

In fairness the bigger problem was state and local governments getting impatient and lifting the lock-downs themselves even in spite of the risks.

You can more accurately blame ordinary people for not abiding by mask-wearing or social distancing protocols though. That was the next fail-safe.

One of the real apparent learnings from this is you cannot trust people to regulate themself in a crisis.

Australia knocks on the doors of the homes of people isolating after they test positive to COVID-19.

Around 25-30% are not at home. They go back to work, at the gym, go shopping.

So that means that one third of people, once infected are not concerned about others getting infected. Once infected, their psychology flips to 'active infector'. Think about that carefully. Until you are infected, you cannot imagine thinking that way.

Now out of your two points, Government control in this pandemic is the only option. Removal of infected subjects from the population is a very very effective tool to stop community transmission.

That is why Asian cultures such as South Korea and Singapore achieve better results.

Australia is screwed because 1/3rd of our population carry on like this:

Bunnings Karen Does Not Wear A Mask

https://youtu.be/heY0lvOM0Sw

There is no balance here between personal freedom and Government control unless you have intelligent citizens.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Good question.

[Meclazine for Israel]

One of the real apparent learnings from this is you cannot trust people to regulate themself in a crisis.

Australia knocks on the doors of the homes of people isolating after they test positive to COVID-19.

Around 25-30% are not at home. They go back to work, at the gym, go shopping.

So that means that one third of people, once infected are not concerned about others getting infected. Once infected, their psychology flips to 'active infector'. Think about that carefully. Until you are infected, you cannot imagine thinking that way.

Now out of your two points, Government control in this pandemic is the only option. Removal of infected subjects from the population is a very very effective tool to stop community transmission.

Australia should transport all infected to the Gold Coast, and pay their salary while on their holiday. They can come back when they test negative.

Since everyone would be infected, there would be no harm in going to the gym, shopping, or even working remotely.

One thing is for sure Jim.

We cannot control people in our society, at all. They are sneaking through every checkpoint, breaking every policy, infecting others through their own selfishness, rationalising their absurd viewpoints, using their elevated Government positions to get exemptions, lying about their previous travel destinations. We would literally need a political autocracy with extreme authoritarian control in this situation like China if we want it to stop. But we are not that.

The psyche of the average punter in Australia makes for a perfect spreading host environment for this virus:

Send in the Clowns

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Yu3SUlEhWA

We have an epidemic of Human Stupidity Virus taking over the country's response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

After years of experience, I am an expert in human stupidity. It has not been eradicated, it never will be, it is very predictable, so much so that you can predict the future (business planning) knowing it is a strong feature of human behaviour.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Dr. Vin Gupta on MSNBC said false negatives are like 10% common in the rapid test, but false positives are extremely rare so Dewine's negative test the same day should be disregarded.

Yes and no.

We had an AFL footballer test positive followed by a train of negative results. So it does happen quite a bit. If the virus does not embed due to natural immunity, then it is gone.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Because you have multiple strains, keep in mind you are looking at multiple vaccines.

So in order to travel in 2021, you will most likely need to have two to three vaccination certificates in your passport.

[Meclazine for Israel]

India recording +95,000 cases today.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/india/

From a population of 1.4 Bn people, the cases are only 1/6th of the rate of the US, so the spread is set to continue.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Riot Police Arresting Melbourne Protestors

Lockdown Protest

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TvW4qCkgu6Y

I love the guy who said "In the Mighty Name of Jesus Christ, He is coming for You".

I wonder what happens when a vengeful Jesus comes for you.

Just glad to see some freedom of expression....
for a limited period of time.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Doctors are better at treating COVID-19 patients now.

I think i read somewhere that higher Vitamin D levels in summer are contributing to a lower death rate in the 2nd wave in the Northern Hemisphere.

In the cold, low humidity climate of Melbourne, the death rate, albeit nostly elderly victims, is quite high.

Also infections in younger people are proportionately higher as the elderly escape to their forest log cabins, and put themself in isolation pre-vaccine.

Now that we learn more about it, people can make their own choices and decisions. And as you say, medical treatment has come a long way.

Hopefully, we get some natural immunity and with vaccines, the thing subsides.

[Meclazine for Israel]

382,000 new cases on the planet yesterday.

Ouch with a capital X!

[Meclazine for Israel]

413,000 new cases reported yesterday.

This thing has gone Full Beet.

Apologies to Beet for underestimating his now clearly accurate early-stage pandemic hyperbolae.

I will never doubt your pre-pandemic estimates and over-exaggerated mathematical projections again.

[Meclazine for Israel]

......we have tried everything. Except maybe a "stay outside" order......

Guaranteed in 3 years time, when we look back, that is probably one of the best things you can do. UV light, Vitamin D, fresh air.

One of the issues that has come out of this viral pandemic is we learnt we are led blind by automaton politicians who have no lateral thinking ideas, except maybe Sweden, which would lead to faster solutions in dealing with this virus.

[Meclazine for Israel]

What’s the survival rate for all those in the United States (and the rest of the world) affected indirectly by the fallout from Covid and the resulting semi-collapse of society?

I very much doubt that survival rate is anywhere near the 99.6% survival from the actual illness. Something to mull over.

Survival rate is getting better:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

The third wave in 'new case' numbers in the US is visible.

But the death numbers do not replicate these three peaks. The number of deaths is certainly subsiding which each wave.

[Meclazine for Israel]

https://www.ft.com/content/4842aab1-7cc8-4973-b98a-03edf1eeae54
Schools play limited role in spread of Covid-19, studies signal
European research boosts policymakers who fear shutdown harms students and leaves parents unable to work

A series of studies has cast doubt on the role of schools in spreading the coronavirus as governments across Europe weigh fresh restrictions to slow a second wave of infections.

Studies in Germany and Norway, as well as two reviews focusing on education globally, suggest a renewal of widespread school closures would have a limited effect on curbing Sars-Cov-2, the virus that causes Covid-19.

The findings are likely to bolster policymakers concerned that school closures would risk more students falling behind and limit the ability of parents to return to work.

More and more evidence emerging that Pr. Trump was right.

Incredible that it isn't one of main topics in USA. Too fast closure and too slow re-opening of schools might lead to the lost generation of kids from poor, often low-educated, often minority, often single-mom etc families. I guess it's because Dems elite and journos are mostly white libs whose children are doing just fine on remote learning. And, obviously, because agreeing with Trump BAAAD is big No-No.

Welcome back Russian !

Great signature.

[Meclazine for Israel]

On that list you post, the US as a whole is easily the least densely populated country.

Argentina has actually the lowest population density in that list

EDIT: even Brazil has a lowest population density than the US

Brazil doesn't really count as large swaths of the country are virtually uninhabited.

That's not true. I have worked in Brazil in remote exploration, and there are people in all areas no matter where you go. West Africa was the same.

You cant argue one thing. Get it wrong, and then when challenged by scientific facts, back it up with more wrong information.

That is simply providing misinformation twice based on lack of knowledge.

[Meclazine for Israel]

What is the source for the claim that testing has decreased?  

It is true that positivity rate has increased.  But according the Covid Tracking Project and the Johns Hopkins tracker, testing is also still increasing this week as it has been for the last 6-8 weeks.



https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states

It's possible he is looking state-by-state. For example, while New York has massively increased testing in the past month, it is not the location of a major outbreak at the moment. And Rhode Island just this week passed the threshold of being the first state to have (over the course of the pandemic) undertaken more coronavirus tests than there are residents in the state. But many of the states with the highest new case rates have much, much lower testing rates than the top-tier testing states.

This thing is a hard one to quantify.

You have different testing levels and reporting in different countries and states. You have people knowingly carrying the virus and being sick, and not coming forward to be tested. Just hiding at home for 2 weeks so they don't lose their job or taint their business with a shutdown or quarantine for all staff and customers.

The one thing we can see clearly is that the death rate in the subsequent waves appears to be dropping considerably.

This is most likely due to a combination of factors including:

1. The virus is becoming less deadly as time progresses; and/or
2. People who have been exposed are developing good immunity levels, particularly children preventing subsequent re-infection or transmission;
3. The medical treatment is getting better to prevent death;
4. The testing rates have increased (lowering the death rate mathematically);
5. People who are vulnerable are taking stronger precautions;
6. The pathways to the vulnerable people in our society are no longer available.

These are only assertions, but in 2-3 years time, we will have a clearer picture.

It's scenario's like Sweden that help speed up this analysis.

[Meclazine for Israel]

1. The virus is becoming less deadly as time progresses; and/or

I know you're saying this is just 1 of 7 things that are happening, but this keeps being brought up and no one can give a reason for why it would be happening. And in fact, it seems unlikely that it would be happening since the virus is doing so well and you're contagious well before you're even sick.

It could be evolving to be more contagious but less lethal to members of the population. Logically, the most likely mutations of a virus are to a less virulent strain that is easily transmissible.

I simply do not know enough about epidemiology, and in this case, it is a work in progress.

What I am saying is in 3 years time, we will find out more information.

At the moment, we are sitting inside a crashed plane wreck on fire, not knowing what happened, trying to get our seat belt off and get out.

Reality is, we have to wait for Air Crash Investigations in 4 years time to actually summarise what is going on.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Because of weather?

There is a study in Australia that says that the Corona-virus survives better in low humidity which is indirectly related to low-temperature in most parts of the world.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Latest research coming out indicates three high risk groups for bad outcomes from COVID-19 infection:

1. Bald men
2. Group A blood type
3. Neanderthal genes - (on Chromosome 3)

All three groups suffer worse outcomes once they have a COVID-19 infection. I don't know whether these attributes make the individual more susceptible to infection in the first instance.

And on the positive side, men treated for prostate cancer have better outcomes from COVID-19 infection.

Clearly, there is something going on with testosterone somewhere in this research.

[Meclazine for Israel]

The rate of infection is certainly on the upswing:



I made this plot at https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data

The great thing is you can build your own graphs to demonstrate your argument or to illustrate a point.

The death rate as a function of cases has decreased from 10% to 1.3% since April 30. (8 times smaller)

But the testing rate has increased by a factor of 4. If you believe the case numbers in April 30 were under-represented due to low testing numbers, that means the death rate itself has effectively halved, most likely due to better medical treatment for sick patients.

If those curves go nuts over XMAS in the northern hemisphere, we might need to get a prediction from BEET for 2021. There is only Herd Immunity or Human Extinction event left.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Best strategy at this point is to vaccinate the elderly population and that young and healthy people should now not wear masks and throw covid parties and deliberately get infected. That would be the fastest way to achieve an end to this pandemic.

This ain't it, chief.

You at least agree that elderly and vulnerable should be vaccinated prior to essential workers right?

They should all be in the most high-priority group, since the essential workers will be the ones most exposed and the ones who have the potential to infect the most people.

Really, it seems like the smartest thing we can do now that the Moderna vaccine has been approved is potentially to switch it from two doses to one right now. If it's true that the vaccine's first dose has a 92% effectiveness rate, then it might be the quickest path to herd immunity by cutting the wait time in half. Do research into the effectiveness of a second dose six months later as a booster, but we can't wait for everyone to get their two doses if the difference is 3%.

Wouldn't it be better to use both? That way we can vaccinate more people more quickly, even if one of the vaccines isn't as good.

Yeah, I'm not advocating scrapping the Pfizer vaccine, but if Moderna is essentially functional with one dose, that gives it a huge leg up over Pfizer which seems to genuinely require two doses.

I will be talking all three if I get the chance.

Can't wait.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Alright, a couple of graphs to end 2020.

First up, top 25 and lowest 25 countries in the world for infection rate from 2020 data were selected. Their respective infection rate was plotted as a function of:

1. GDP per Capita


COVID-19 Infection Rate as a function of GDP (2018)

I took out Lichtenstein on the plotted points as people there are extra-ordinarily wealthy and it skews all the poor countries together in the bottom left corner too much.

2. Latitude of Country


COVID-19 Infection Rate as a function of Latitude

It's a bit macabre to plot the death rate. So the only stat worth sharing was that the mortality rate of the wealthy countries was 316 times greater as a percentage of the population when compared to the poor equatorial countries.

[Meclazine for Israel]

COVID helped Biden, not Trump. Trump would have won if not for COVID.

Yes, Trump used the press conferences as an opportunity to shine the limelight on himself and neglected the fact that the science was operating on a whole new level and he needed to get out of the way.

His media strategy in amongst scientists made him look insufficient. Dr Fauci and Dr Birx are not contestants on The Apprentice.

His one chance to be xenophobic, he failed.

Trump could have got all returning visitors and citizens to quarantine in remote Alaska or Nevada which would have delayed COVID-19 considerably.

Easy in hindsight, but I think it did cost him the election.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Has it been discussed why this virus is mutating to become worse than it was before, when most viruses generally mutate to be less severe?

Strains of the flu have natural variations, not always causing a drop in severity of symptoms.

In the 3rd wave which is monstrous, it looks like it is actually winter making it much worse. COVID-19 prefers the low humidity present in the cold environments of the northern hemisphere. People with low vitamin D also appear to suffer more.

Whereas, here we are living in the southern hemisphere enduring a humid heatwave over the last month.

The end result: Australia with 13 Days COVID free.

We have halved our inbound flights for returning Australians and strengthened our quarantine protocols for hotels.

Professor Michael Kidd

https://youtu.be/s3GTyoR4u9s

The only real outbreak in Australia in 2020 was in our coldest city Melbourne in the middle of winter.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Our capital city went into lockdown 2 days ago after one diagnosed case of community transmission, the first case in 10 months.

https://youtu.be/ZnV6PJCxnBg

Zero cases detected for the last 2 days. 2 Million people in lockdown.

I am 2,000km away so hopefully when I fly back to Perth, the lockdown is over.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Isn't it just the nature of exponentials? I know we've been having these long tails, but in theory the graph of cases should be a bell curve, and it goes down as fast as it went up.

That is what I was thinking at the start, and in most cases, yes. But then in the USA another bell curve came, and then another more devastating bell curve was superimposed on top of that.

The only saving grace is that the mortality rate is dropping as time progresses (treatment, less venerable hosts, vaccination)

Never anticipated people would be so against vaccination. We need a lot of people vaccinated to make sure this thing does no become endemic like the flu.