COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[Geoffrey Howe]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 4/9 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE:What's the overall change in the total?

Brackets []: These represent the total change for the day, including backlogged reports, if any.

• These numbers are inflated relative to the actual reports for the day, so they are not used to calculate the comparative percentage shifts.

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3/28: <Sunday>

• Cases: 30,957,997 (+40,867 | ΔW Change: ↑3.47% | Σ Increase: ↑0.13%)
• Deaths: 562,495 (+483 | ΔW Change: ↑6.15% | Σ Increase: ↑0.09%)

3/29: <M>

• Cases: 31,033,801 (+59,707 [+75,804] | ΔW Change: ↑23.38% | Σ Increase: ↑0.24%)
• Deaths: 563,206 (+639 [+711] | ΔW Change: ↑1.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.13%)

3/30: <T>

• Cases: 31,097,154 (+63,353 | ΔW Change: ↑6.35% | Σ Increase: ↑0.20%)
• Deaths: 564,138 (+932 | ΔW Change: ↓0.64% | Σ Increase: ↑0.17%)

3/31: <W>

• Cases: 31,166,344 (+69,190 | ΔW Change: ↑2.11% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)
• Deaths: 565,256 (+1,118 | ΔW Change: ↓20.43% | Σ Increase: ↑0.20%)

4/1: <Þ>

• Cases: 31,244,639 (+78,295 | ΔW Change: ↑16.78% | Σ Increase: ↑0.25%)
• Deaths: 566,611 (+952 [+1,355] | ΔW Change: ↓18.28% | Σ Increase: ↑0.24%)

4/2: <F>

• Cases: 31,314,625 (+69,986 | ΔW Change: ↓11.41% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)
• Deaths: 567,610 (+999 | ΔW Change: ↓28.54% | Σ Increase: ↑0.18%)

4/3: <S>

• Cases: 31,382,205 (+67,580 | ΔW Change: ↑5.43% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)
• Deaths: 568,499 (+793 [+889] | ΔW Change: ↑0.76% | Σ Increase: ↑0.16%)

4/4 (Holiday): <Sunday>

• Cases: 31,420,331 (+38,126 | ΔW Change: ↓3.47% | Σ Increase: ↑0.12%)
• Deaths: 568,777 (+278 | ΔW Change: ↓38.90% | Σ Increase: ↑0.05%)

4/5: <M>

• Cases: 31,490,563 (+50,329 [+70,232] | ΔW Change: ↓15.71% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)
• Deaths: 569,197 (+420 | ΔW Change: ↓34.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.07%)

4/6: <T>

• Cases: 31,560,438 (+62,283 [+69,875] | ΔW Change: ↓1.69% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)
• Deaths: 570,260 (+906 [+1,063] | ΔW Change: ↓2.79% | Σ Increase: ↑0.19%)

4/7: <W>

• Cases: 31,637,243 (+76,805 | ΔW Change: ↑9.91% | Σ Increase: ↑0.24%)
• Deaths: 572,849 (+873 [+2,589] | ΔW Change: ↓21.91% | Σ Increase: ↑0.45%)

4/8 (Yesterday): <Þ>

• Cases: 31,717,404 (+75,183 [+80,161] | ΔW Change: ↓3.97% | Σ Increase: ↑0.25%)
• Deaths: 573,856 (+872 [+1,007] | ΔW Change: ↓8.40% | Σ Increase: ↑0.18%)

4/9 (Today): <F>

• Cases: 31,802,772 (+85,368 | ΔW Change: ↑21.98% | Σ Increase: ↑0.27%)
• Deaths: 574,840 (+984 | ΔW Change: ↓1.50% | Σ Increase: ↑0.17%)

I must say ΔW is a nice way to put it. But isn’t the ‘change’ after that redundant since Δ means change? I may be wrong; I’m not a mathematician.

[Geoffrey Howe]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 4/9 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE:What's the overall change in the total?

Brackets []: These represent the total change for the day, including backlogged reports, if any.

• These numbers are inflated relative to the actual reports for the day, so they are not used to calculate the comparative percentage shifts.

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3/28: <Sunday>

• Cases: 30,957,997 (+40,867 | ΔW Change: ↑3.47% | Σ Increase: ↑0.13%)
• Deaths: 562,495 (+483 | ΔW Change: ↑6.15% | Σ Increase: ↑0.09%)

3/29: <M>

• Cases: 31,033,801 (+59,707 [+75,804] | ΔW Change: ↑23.38% | Σ Increase: ↑0.24%)
• Deaths: 563,206 (+639 [+711] | ΔW Change: ↑1.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.13%)

3/30: <T>

• Cases: 31,097,154 (+63,353 | ΔW Change: ↑6.35% | Σ Increase: ↑0.20%)
• Deaths: 564,138 (+932 | ΔW Change: ↓0.64% | Σ Increase: ↑0.17%)

3/31: <W>

• Cases: 31,166,344 (+69,190 | ΔW Change: ↑2.11% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)
• Deaths: 565,256 (+1,118 | ΔW Change: ↓20.43% | Σ Increase: ↑0.20%)

4/1: <Þ>

• Cases: 31,244,639 (+78,295 | ΔW Change: ↑16.78% | Σ Increase: ↑0.25%)
• Deaths: 566,611 (+952 [+1,355] | ΔW Change: ↓18.28% | Σ Increase: ↑0.24%)

4/2: <F>

• Cases: 31,314,625 (+69,986 | ΔW Change: ↓11.41% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)
• Deaths: 567,610 (+999 | ΔW Change: ↓28.54% | Σ Increase: ↑0.18%)

4/3: <S>

• Cases: 31,382,205 (+67,580 | ΔW Change: ↑5.43% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)
• Deaths: 568,499 (+793 [+889] | ΔW Change: ↑0.76% | Σ Increase: ↑0.16%)

4/4 (Holiday): <Sunday>

• Cases: 31,420,331 (+38,126 | ΔW Change: ↓3.47% | Σ Increase: ↑0.12%)
• Deaths: 568,777 (+278 | ΔW Change: ↓38.90% | Σ Increase: ↑0.05%)

4/5: <M>

• Cases: 31,490,563 (+50,329 [+70,232] | ΔW Change: ↓15.71% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)
• Deaths: 569,197 (+420 | ΔW Change: ↓34.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.07%)

4/6: <T>

• Cases: 31,560,438 (+62,283 [+69,875] | ΔW Change: ↓1.69% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)
• Deaths: 570,260 (+906 [+1,063] | ΔW Change: ↓2.79% | Σ Increase: ↑0.19%)

4/7: <W>

• Cases: 31,637,243 (+76,805 | ΔW Change: ↑9.91% | Σ Increase: ↑0.24%)
• Deaths: 572,849 (+873 [+2,589] | ΔW Change: ↓21.91% | Σ Increase: ↑0.45%)

4/8 (Yesterday): <Þ>

• Cases: 31,717,404 (+75,183 [+80,161] | ΔW Change: ↓3.97% | Σ Increase: ↑0.25%)
• Deaths: 573,856 (+872 [+1,007] | ΔW Change: ↓8.40% | Σ Increase: ↑0.18%)

4/9 (Today): <F>

• Cases: 31,802,772 (+85,368 | ΔW Change: ↑21.98% | Σ Increase: ↑0.27%)
• Deaths: 574,840 (+984 | ΔW Change: ↓1.50% | Σ Increase: ↑0.17%)

I must say ΔW is a nice way to put it. But isn’t the ‘change’ after that redundant since Δ means change? I may be wrong; I’m not a mathematician.

You are correct. The redundancy is intentional, since many don't know about the Δ notation conventions in general scientific practices.

Fair enough. I wonder how many people know. I suspect for GCSE maths in the UK (the exam taken at 15/16 which everyone has to do) you probably need to know Δy/Δx as the gradient of a line, but then most people don't care much for this sort of thing or call it 'y change over X change'.