COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Some of the implied CFR rates by state right now are really bizarre.  Florida is averaging about 5,000 cases and 50 deaths per day (CFR~1%).  California is averaging around 2500 cases and 200 deaths per day (CFR~8%!!).  

Is Florida just much, much better at testing and thus counting cases?  Or much better at vaccinating the elderly?  What is going here?

FWIW, this isn’t really a red state/blue state thing.  NY has CFR ~1% while Texas and Georgia are 3-4%. 

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Some of the implied CFR rates by state right now are really bizarre.  Florida is averaging about 5,000 cases and 50 deaths per day (CFR~1%).  California is averaging around 2500 cases and 200 deaths per day (CFR~8%!!).  

Is Florida just much, much better at testing and thus counting cases?  Or much better at vaccinating the elderly?  What is going here?

FWIW, this isn’t really a red state/blue state thing.  NY has CFR ~1% while Texas and Georgia are 3-4%. 

Newsom didn't target those most at risk. A 64 year old with every co-morbidity wouldn't have been eligible until a couple of weeks ago.

[Dr. Frankenstein]

Some of the implied CFR rates by state right now are really bizarre.  Florida is averaging about 5,000 cases and 50 deaths per day (CFR~1%).  California is averaging around 2500 cases and 200 deaths per day (CFR~8%!!).  

Is Florida just much, much better at testing and thus counting cases?  Or much better at vaccinating the elderly?  What is going here?

FWIW, this isn’t really a red state/blue state thing.  NY has CFR ~1% while Texas and Georgia are 3-4%. 

It's not particularly relevant to compare new cases & deaths for the same day. There's always a delay between reported new cases and subsequent deaths. You'll have to look back at the average number of new cases from 2-3 weeks ago in order to get a better picture.

[pbrower2a]

We have just lost the equivalent of the population of Albuquerque, the 32nd-largest city in the United States. Sure, Albuquerque is a dump, but that is nothing like the body-dumping that we Americans have had to do. By now more Americans are inoculated against COVID-19 (SARS-2) than have contracted it, so we are approaching the time of "herd immunity". Americans are herding themselves into inoculation sites.

I got bad side-effects from the inoculation, which tells me that (1) I did a good job of evading 'Rona, and (2) it was a good thing that I did. I had some nasty muscle pains and a simulated URI... and the older that I get the worse any URI gets. Unless I die a violent death (which includes vehicle crashes, fires, and falls) ny death certificate is almost certain to have pneumonia as a contributing factor.   

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I don’t think there’s any correlation between seriousness of vaccine side effects and severity of illness if you get the virus.  If anything, I’ve seen suggestions of the opposite; that the healthiest people tend to get the worst side effects.  (And at least that was anecdotally true between my wife and I when we each got out first dose.)

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 3/28 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE:What's the overall change in the total?

Brackets []: These represent the total change for the day, including backlogged reports, if any.

• These numbers are inflated relative to the actual reports for the day, so they are not used to calculate the comparative percentage shifts.

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3/21: <Sunday>

• Cases: 30,521,765 (+39,496 [+41,655] | ΔW Change: ↑3.95% | Σ Increase: ↑0.14%)
• Deaths: 555,314 (+455 | ΔW Change: ↓27.66% | Σ Increase: ↑0.08%)

3/22: <M>

• Cases: 30,576,962 (+45,748 [+55,197] | ΔW Change: ↑9.99% | Σ Increase: ↑0.18%)
• Deaths: 555,945 (+631 | ΔW Change: =0% | Σ Increase: ↑0.11%)

3/23: <T>

• Cases: 30,636,534 (+59,572 | ΔW Change: ↑16.17% | Σ Increase: ↑0.19%)
• Deaths: 556,883 (+938 | ΔW Change: ↓17.28% | Σ Increase: ↑0.17%)

3/24: <W>

• Cases: 30,704,292 (+67,758 | ΔW Change: ↑7.91% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)
• Deaths: 558,422 (+1,405 [+1,539] | ΔW Change: ↑0.64% | Σ Increase: ↑0.28%)

3/25: <Þ>

• Cases: 30,774,033 (+67,046 [+69,741] | ΔW Change: ↑7.05% | Σ Increase: ↑0.23%)
• Deaths: 559,744 (+1,165 [+1,322] | ΔW Change: ↓31.67% | Σ Increase: ↑0.24%)

3/26: <F>

• Cases: 30,853,032 (+78,999 | ΔW Change: ↑19.09% | Σ Increase: ↑0.26%)
• Deaths: 561,142 (+1,398 | ΔW Change: ↑10.69% | Σ Increase: ↑0.25%)

3/27 (Yesterday): <S>

• Cases: 30,917,130 (+64,098 | ΔW Change: ↑16.76% | Σ Increase: ↑0.21%)
• Deaths: 562,012 (+787 [+870] | ΔW Change: ↑3.55% | Σ Increase: ↑0.16%)

3/28 (Today): <Sunday>

• Cases: 30,957,997 (+40,867 | ΔW Change: ↑3.47% | Σ Increase: ↑0.13%)
• Deaths: 562,495 (+483 | ΔW Change: ↑6.15% | Σ Increase: ↑0.09%)

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Democrats have to start to listen to Trump science as DeSantis did.

Isn’t this precisely what Biden is attempting to do? Isn’t that why he picked Cardona for education secretary?

Eh, no? Science is pretty clear now (basically from the summer) and to open up schools is mostly a question of political will. DeSantis fought and got sued by the anti-science teachers unions, but has been proven right. On schools re-opening the US (Democrats) are exceptional in Western world, despite being world-best on testing, which should facilitate the re-opening.

I totally understand, why everyone (not just US) closed the schools spring 2020 - we didn't know anything about the virus - better safe than sorry.
I can understand, politically wise, not morally wise, why Biden & Dems opposed it in fall, even though we already had the data then, which Europe and Florida followed. Dems, perhaps, thought, that sacrificing poor kids' future closing the schools made them look tough on Covid or whatever.
But I really can't comprehend why he didn't push the pressure on the Governors as hard as he could to re-open them after Nov 7. Can't he admit Orange Bad was right?

I think that, if Biden came out in Dec/Jan and said that the the most schools should be re-opened, the most would be by now.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Re:school re-openings


The data from Florida
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7012e2.htm
COVID-19 in Primary and Secondary School Settings During the First Semester of School Reopening — Florida, August–December 2020
On March 19, 2021, this report was posted online as an MMWR Early Release.

After detection of cases of COVID-19 in Florida in March 2020, the governor declared a state of emergency on March 9,* and all school districts in the state suspended in-person instruction by March 20. Most kindergarten through grade 12 (K–12) public and private schools in Florida reopened for in-person learning during August 2020, with varying options for remote learning offered by school districts. During August 10–December 21, 2020, a total of 63,654 COVID-19 cases were reported in school-aged children; an estimated 60% of these cases were not school-related. Fewer than 1% of registered students were identified as having school-related COVID-19 and <11% of K-12 schools reported outbreaks. District incidences among students correlated with the background disease incidence in the county; resumption of in-person education was not associated with a proportionate increase in COVID-19 among school-aged children. Higher rates among students were observed in smaller districts, districts without mandatory mask-use policies, and districts with a lower proportion of students participating in remote learning. These findings highlight the importance of implementing both community-level and school-based strategies to reduce the spread of COVID-19 and suggest that school reopening can be achieved without resulting in widespread illness among students in K–12 school settings.

Discussion

Although COVID-19 can and does occur in school settings, the results of these analyses indicate that in Florida, 60% of COVID-19 cases in school-aged children were not school-related, <1% of registered students were identified as having school-related COVID-19, and <11% of K–12 schools reported outbreaks. These findings add to a growing body of evidence suggesting that COVID-19 transmission does not appear to be demonstrably more frequent in schools than in noneducational settings (2). Temporal trends in the United States also indicate that among school-aged children, school-based transmission might be no higher than transmission outside the school setting (3,4); the limited in-school transmission observed in Florida has also been observed in other states (5) and countries (6).

Success in preventing the introduction of SARS-CoV-2 into schools depends upon controlling community transmission and adhering to mitigation measures in schools, particularly masking, physical distancing, testing, and increasing room air ventilation (2,4,7). Where feasible, supporting family choice for remote versus in-person learning likely reduces in-school crowding and facilitates better physical distancing in schools. In Florida, a large proportion of school-related outbreaks was observed among social gatherings and extracurricular sporting activities. Household transmission and social gatherings might pose a higher risk for infection among school-aged children than does school attendance (8 ). School sports and other extracurricular activities in which masking and physical distancing are difficult or impossible to achieve should be postponed, particularly during periods of high community transmission (2,9).

The findings in this report are subject to at least six limitations. First, because data on the number of teachers and staff members statewide or by county were not available, rates of total school-related cases could not be calculated; instead, the number of student cases per 100,000 registered students was used. Second, screening testing was generally not done in most schools, therefore, asymptomatic infections might have been underascertained. Third, classification of school-related cases, contacts, and outbreaks was dependent on thorough case interviews and might have been incomplete, relative to the overall number of cases in school-aged children. Fourth, although the operational definition used for school-related cases was likely sensitive, it does not ensure that all persons with school-related cases acquired infection in the school setting because infections might have been acquired elsewhere. Fifth, limited data were available at the school district level on some mitigation measures, such as mask use in schools, so these mitigation measures could not be fully assessed. Finally, results should be interpreted with caution because most students in the largest school districts did not resume in-person education for the first part of the analysis period.

These findings provide further evidence that resumption of school can likely be achieved without the rapid disease spread observed in congregate living facilities or high-density worksites. Both community-level and school-based measures to prevent spread of disease are essential to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission in school settings (10).

Europe:
Sep 1
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-europe-education-f-idUSKBN25S4L4
Back to school: how European classrooms are coping with COVID

Schools across Europe are reopening as summer break ends and governments insist that students return to the classroom after months of online learning due to the coronavirus pandemic.

Countries are taking different approaches to minimise contagion in schools, as outlined below.

Dec 1
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/europe-schools-covid-open/2020/12/01/4480a5c8-2e61-11eb-9dd6-2d0179981719_story.html
Europe’s schools still open, still relatively safe, through covid-19 second wave

When European schools reopened their classrooms in the spring, after the first wave of the coronavirus had crested, some parents expressed concern their children were being used as “guinea pigs” in a dangerous experiment.

But to the extent that European schools have acted as laboratories for the world, the findings eight months later are largely positive. Most of Europe kept schools open even during a worst-on-the-planet second wave of infections this fall. And still, schools appear to be relatively safe environments, public health officials say. As long as they adhered to a now-established set of precautions — mask-wearing, hand-washing, ventilation — schools are thought to have played only a limited role in accelerating coronavirus transmission in Europe.

Those conclusions contrast sharply with the prevailing wisdom in the United States, where public health officials have focused on low rates of positive coronavirus tests in the broader community as a prerequisite for in-person schooling. Some U.S. school districts recently announced that they are going remote again, as coronavirus cases rise, and other districts have yet to reopen their classrooms at all.

“It is still difficult for me to understand why schools are closed in the United States,” said Otto Helve, a specialist in pediatric infectious diseases at the Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare who has studied coronavirus transmission in schools. “Schools are not driving the epidemic.”

France, which spiked worse than Spain last month, also saw relatively low numbers in schools. The week of France’s peak last month, 0.1 percent of students and 0.2 percent of school personnel tested positive for the coronavirus. Across the country, 142 of 528,400 classrooms quarantined, about 0.03 percent, while 21 of 61,500 schools went into fuller quarantine, according to data from the education ministry.

“We are not seeing the tip of the iceberg; we are seeing the whole iceberg because of our good tracing,” said Quique Bassat, a Spanish pediatrician and epidemiologist who was the coordinator of the Spanish Pediatrics Association’s working group for school reopenings.

In Spain, coronavirus cases were already rising sharply across the country in early September, as classrooms prepared to reopen for the first time since the pandemic hit.

“There were legitimate concerns that perhaps we were fueling the epidemic, and perhaps we were adding more fuel to the fire, and this was going to be the apocalypse,” Bassat said. “To the surprise of many, reopening the schools, applying all these measures in a strict way, controlled transmission, and there were no big outbreaks.”

“It’s not that we think schools are no danger, that there’s no effect,” said Steven Van Gucht, the head of viral diseases at the Belgian public health agency. “Schools are the last thing to close; they’re really the last thing on the list. There is political pressure and societal pressure. We consider schooling an absolute priority.”

When Belgium buckled under a second wave in which daily cases peaked at 1,536 per million people — more than three times the level in the United States right now — it doubled a preplanned post-Halloween school vacation to two weeks, creating a 14-day circuit breaker that built on a broad, nationwide lockdown. Afterward, schools resumed, and infections have dropped for weeks.

“It is very clear to everyone what the downsides are to having school closures,” Helve said. “The downside to closing would need to be compensated by an extremely good outcome in terms of disease control, and it doesn’t seem to do that.”

“Schools are the last thing to close; they’re really the last thing on the list. There is political pressure and societal pressure. We consider schooling an absolute priority.”

The priority of Democrats seem to be LatinX rather then schooling.

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1376509943260573699

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1376509943260573699

And we should trust the Chinese government and their puppets in the WHO because?

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/business/status/1376569936575926272

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

What is the evidence deaths are rising?  The worldometers average for US deaths yesterday (March 28) was 1003.  A week earlier (March 21), it was 1053.  

It is a little disappointing that deaths have not continued to fall at the rate they were falling a month ago (the average on February 28 was 2000, so deaths have fallen a full 50% in a month).  But I really see no evidence that deaths are rising.

And I know I've said this before, but we really need more transparent information about where the deaths are coming from.  In particular, how many people are dying after they have been vaccinated?  And how many are older versus younger?

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/03/29/vaccine-effective-essential-workers-study
Pfizer, Moderna vaccines are 90% effective after two doses in study of real-life conditions, CDC confirms
Report on essential workers is one of the first to estimate protection against any infection, regardless of symptoms

The Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines being deployed to fight the coronavirus pandemic are robustly effective in preventing infections in real-life conditions, according to a federal study released Monday that provides reassurance of protection for front-line workers in the United States.

In a study of about 4,000 health-care personnel, police, firefighters and other essential workers, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention found that the vaccines reduced the risk of infection by 80 percent after one shot. Protection increased to 90 percent following the second dose. The findings are consistent with clinical trial results and studies showing strong effectiveness in Israel and the United Kingdom, and in initial studies of health-care workers at the UT Southwestern Medical Center and in Southern California.

The CDC report is significant, experts said, because it analyzed how well the vaccines worked among a diverse group of front-line working-age adults whose jobs make them more likely to be exposed to the virus and to spread it.

Real-world data confirmed clinical trials. Moderna and Pfizer vaccines are unbelievably effective. Thank you, Pr. Trump, for securing these beautiful vaccines for all the Americans.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/03/29/vaccine-effective-essential-workers-study
Pfizer, Moderna vaccines are 90% effective after two doses in study of real-life conditions, CDC confirms
Report on essential workers is one of the first to estimate protection against any infection, regardless of symptoms

The Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines being deployed to fight the coronavirus pandemic are robustly effective in preventing infections in real-life conditions, according to a federal study released Monday that provides reassurance of protection for front-line workers in the United States.

In a study of about 4,000 health-care personnel, police, firefighters and other essential workers, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention found that the vaccines reduced the risk of infection by 80 percent after one shot. Protection increased to 90 percent following the second dose. The findings are consistent with clinical trial results and studies showing strong effectiveness in Israel and the United Kingdom, and in initial studies of health-care workers at the UT Southwestern Medical Center and in Southern California.

The CDC report is significant, experts said, because it analyzed how well the vaccines worked among a diverse group of front-line working-age adults whose jobs make them more likely to be exposed to the virus and to spread it.

Real-world data confirmed clinical trials. Moderna and Pfizer vaccines are unbelievably effective. Thank you, Pr. Trump, for securing these beautiful vaccines for all the Americans.

https://twitter.com/bpolitics/status/1376587655073370115

Soon, it is over.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

I regret to inform you that the highly dishonest New York Times is at it again.
https://twitter.com/PhilWMagness/status/1376607203227004936?s=20

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

I regret to inform you that the highly dishonest New York Times is at it again.
https://twitter.com/PhilWMagness/status/1376607203227004936?s=20

From Nov 2020

https://twitter.com/youyanggu/status/1331341651424501766

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/POTUS/status/1376610861603774466

[Mr. Illini]

https://twitter.com/POTUS/status/1376610861603774466

I'm so glad we elected this man over the prior clown

[CultureKing]

https://twitter.com/POTUS/status/1376610861603774466

I'm so glad we elected this man over the prior clown

Is this based on what states have already publicly communicated or is Biden instructing all states to open even earlier than May 1 to all adults?

[Progressive Pessimist]

But Trump was the one who started Operation Warpspeed and then f***ed up the distribution! Why isn't he getting the credit!1!1! Biased media!

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

https://twitter.com/POTUS/status/1376610861603774466

I'm so glad we elected this man over the prior clown

Is this based on what states have already publicly communicated or is Biden instructing all states to open even earlier than May 1 to all adults?

Reads to me like the first one.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 3/29 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE:What's the overall change in the total?

Brackets []: These represent the total change for the day, including backlogged reports, if any.

• These numbers are inflated relative to the actual reports for the day, so they are not used to calculate the comparative percentage shifts.

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3/21: <Sunday>

• Cases: 30,521,765 (+39,496 [+41,655] | ΔW Change: ↑3.95% | Σ Increase: ↑0.14%)
• Deaths: 555,314 (+455 | ΔW Change: ↓27.66% | Σ Increase: ↑0.08%)

3/22: <M>

• Cases: 30,576,962 (+45,748 [+55,197] | ΔW Change: ↑9.99% | Σ Increase: ↑0.18%)
• Deaths: 555,945 (+631 | ΔW Change: =0% | Σ Increase: ↑0.11%)

3/23: <T>

• Cases: 30,636,534 (+59,572 | ΔW Change: ↑16.17% | Σ Increase: ↑0.19%)
• Deaths: 556,883 (+938 | ΔW Change: ↓17.28% | Σ Increase: ↑0.17%)

3/24: <W>

• Cases: 30,704,292 (+67,758 | ΔW Change: ↑7.91% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)
• Deaths: 558,422 (+1,405 [+1,539] | ΔW Change: ↑0.64% | Σ Increase: ↑0.28%)

3/25: <Þ>

• Cases: 30,774,033 (+67,046 [+69,741] | ΔW Change: ↑7.05% | Σ Increase: ↑0.23%)
• Deaths: 559,744 (+1,165 [+1,322] | ΔW Change: ↓31.67% | Σ Increase: ↑0.24%)

3/26: <F>

• Cases: 30,853,032 (+78,999 | ΔW Change: ↑19.09% | Σ Increase: ↑0.26%)
• Deaths: 561,142 (+1,398 | ΔW Change: ↑10.69% | Σ Increase: ↑0.25%)

3/27: <S>

• Cases: 30,917,130 (+64,098 | ΔW Change: ↑16.76% | Σ Increase: ↑0.21%)
• Deaths: 562,012 (+787 [+870] | ΔW Change: ↑3.55% | Σ Increase: ↑0.16%)

3/28 (Yesterday): <Sunday>

• Cases: 30,957,997 (+40,867 | ΔW Change: ↑3.47% | Σ Increase: ↑0.13%)
• Deaths: 562,495 (+483 | ΔW Change: ↑6.15% | Σ Increase: ↑0.09%)

3/29 (Today): <M>

• Cases: 31,033,801 (+59,707 [+75,804] | ΔW Change: ↑23.38% | Σ Increase: ↑0.24%)
• Deaths: 563,206 (+639 [+711] | ΔW Change: ↑1.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.13%)

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I don’t understand the whole argument about we can’t require everyone to get the vaccine because it is only authorized for “emergency use”. 

Wouldn‘t the specifics of EUA just be part of federal regulation that would be subordinate to federal legislation?  So if the federal government wanted to, Congress could just pass a law requiring everyone to get the vaccine? 

It’s not like antivax rights are in the Constitution.

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

Just got my 2nd dose of the Pfizer vaccine last week. All that red....could this be the final surge of the virus??  I have feeling it could be and it won’t be as bad thanks to the vaccines.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Increasing cases us bad news for Ds