COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Re:School Re-openings

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/education/maryland-schools-failing-grades/2021/03/22/fe33bc86-8b21-11eb-9423-04079921c915_story.html
Maryland schools report surge in failure rates for second quarter

Failure rates surged in Maryland schools during the second quarter, with new data showing percentages doubling or tripling in key classes in most of the state’s 24 school districts.

The numbers are another sign of the academic toll of the coronavirus pandemic, which has claimed more than 540,000 lives in the United States and shuttered some schools for as long as a year.

With school systems reeling as never before, many students have been learning virtually for all or much of the past year. In Maryland, attendance numbers are down, but course grades provide a far more alarming picture of how students are faring.

“Virtual learning clearly has its limits,” she said in a statement. “That is particularly true for students with special needs, our English learners and those from families who are economically disadvantaged.”

Goldson said Prince George’s is using its data to better support English learners and African American middle and high school students, while also looking at one-on-one literacy and math tutoring, summer interventions, and high school instruction paced to individual needs.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/fewer-children-are-attending-school-remotely-and-in-person-11612521003
Fewer Children Are Attending School, Remotely and In Person
Students of color, those with special needs and elementary school children miss school more often in some states

Limited data from some states and districts shows that students learning remotely—especially students of color, special needs and elementary school students—were attending school less often compared with their in-school classmates.

The data deepens concerns that the lengthy school closures will widen the pre-pandemic academic achievement gaps between poor students and others.

About 56% of school districts were exclusively remote as of Dec. 18, according to the Center on Reinventing Public Education, a nonpartisan research group at the University of Washington focused on improving public education in the U.S. The barriers for students learning online continue to include problems with internet connectivity and access to devices.

At Providence Public Schools in Rhode Island, where 30% of the district’s 22,600 students opted to stay remote in the fall, students learning remotely routinely attended class less often, especially younger students, and received a larger number of poor grades for incomplete classwork, said district superintendent Harrison Peters. About 85% of the students in the district qualify for free or reduced lunch.

The chronic absence rate across the 33 districts analyzed more than doubled for sixth and seventh-graders to 16.1% and 21.7%, respectively. Across all grades, absentee rates jumped the most among Black and Latino students in December, increasing to 30% and 21%, up from 18.4% and 12.8% respectively, from the same time a year earlier.

In Massachusetts, 41% of students who are physically back in school buildings full time strongly agree that they learn a lot everyday, compared with 16% of students who are exclusively remote, according to a Gallup survey of 1,000 high-school students.

Roughly a third of students learning entirely remote or in hybrid arrangements say they are falling behind this year, while 8% of in-person learning students say the same. The survey also found that students from low-income households are more likely to be learning remotely full time than students from upper income brackets.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Re: School Re-openings

https://www.washingtonpost.com/education/students-falling-behind/2020/12/06/88d7157a-3665-11eb-8d38-6aea1adb3839_story.html
‘A lost generation’: Surge of research reveals students sliding backward, most vulnerable worst affected

After the U.S. education system fractured into Zoom screens last spring, experts feared millions of children would fall behind. Hard evidence now shows they were right.

A flood of new data — on the national, state and district levels — finds students began this academic year behind. Most of the research concludes students of color and those in high-poverty communities fell further behind their peers, exacerbating long-standing gaps in American education.

A study released this week by McKinsey & Co. estimates that the shift to remote school in the spring set White students back by one to three months in math, while students of color lost three to five months. As the coronavirus pandemic persists through this academic year, McKinsey said, losses will escalate.

“I think we should be very concerned about the risk of a lost generation of students,” said former education secretary John B. King Jr., who is now president of Education Trust, an advocacy and research group focused on equity issues.

Parents and teachers: Tell The Washington Post how your kids are handling online classes

The McKinsey study echoes a half dozen other national reports released in recent days. They all find that students regressed because of lost classroom time in the spring, particularly in math, though the reports vary in degree of the losses and in disparities among student groups.

Separately, data released by multiple school districts show a sharp increase in failing grades this fall, particularly for the most vulnerable students.

[...]

Some say the answer is to get more children back to in-person school. Limited data suggests open schools have not been a significant source of contagion, but the high coronavirus infection rates across the country have halted plans for a return in some districts and hardened fears of going back among many teachers and parents.

“We should have the vast majority of elementary school students back in school. It’s just not that dangerous,” said Nat Malkus, a resident scholar in education policy at the American Enterprise Institute, a right-leaning think tank. “We are still bleeding, so the first thing is to stop the bleeding, and then we’re going to have some healing to do, and it’s going to take years.”

[...]

The assessments this fall measure the results of last spring’s sudden shift to online learning, which was widely considered a disaster — leaving students unable to connect and teachers unprepared to do their jobs remotely.

Although the fall version of remote education appears improved, and some students are back in school buildings, millions of children are still learning from home. This setup privileges children who have quiet places to work, parents at home to help and reliable Internet service. Many of those who don’t have those advantages continue to struggle, and even some families with resources find it difficult to keep children engaged online and emotionally healthy.

In some cases, districts report that students are not even showing up for remote classes, making it virtually certain they will fall behind.

[...]

So you'll have a "lost generation" of poor, mostly non-white kids who were already in a disadvantageous position against their white wealthy libs counter-parts, because Dems accidentally chose to enforce such draconian requirements on schools (that only rich private schools of could manage) that public schools were forced to switch the remote learning, the set-up that happen to suit wealthier kids.

But these draconian requirements were necessary, r-r-r-ight? Well...

https://twitter.com/WSJ/status/1373816743425155076

As school districts around the U.S. continue to grapple with whether to reopen classrooms amid the coronavirus pandemic, data shows Florida started in-person learning without turning schools into superspreaders.

The state was one of the earliest to resume in-person instruction in August, following an executive order by Education Commissioner Richard Corcoran that directed districts to provide families the option of classroom learning five days a week or risk losing funding. The mandate triggered outcry among some teachers and parents who considered it risky, and drew unsuccessful lawsuits aimed at blocking it.

In the seven months since, Florida schools have avoided major outbreaks of Covid-19 and maintained case rates lower than those in the wider community. Mr. Corcoran said 80% of students in Florida are now attending schools in-person full- or part-time.

7 months... The schools across the USA could have been opened in 7 months now, if more politicians actually followed the science.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/carlquintanilla/status/1374379316323053580

[It’s so Joever]

Guys, I put Russian Bear on ignore and my TE experience has never been better. I highly reccomend it since you are missing much anyways.

[jamestroll]

I have not felt so happy in a long time. Seeing the death rate decline has made me estatic!

We should look at death rates going forward.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Georgia is opening vaccine eligibility to all adults (age 16 and up) beginning on Thursday.

[ultraviolet]

Today @ North Paulding High School

Not all of the students are wearing masks. I assume that North Paulding requires masks for teachers and staff, but that they are optional for students. And these are high school students nonetheless, who should be mature enough to be able to wear them throughout the day. If 5-year old Little Johnny can wear one, then all of these 17 or 18-year olds can.

This is my problem with opening schools. There’s no way everyone is going to wear a mask all the time, and there’s definitely no way people are going to stay away from each other. This goes for all ages. And then there’s lunch…

[riceowl]

Georgia is opening vaccine eligibility to all adults (age 16 and up) beginning on Thursday.

So is Texas on Monday

[JGibson]

Illinois: Later this morning, Gov. Pritzker is supposed to announce that he will expand vaccine eligibility to anyone over 16 effective April 12 and add at least one bridge phase before Phase 5.

Capitol Fax.

Here's the Bridge Phase that was announced by Gov. Pritzker last Thursday.

https://twitter.com/GovPritzker/status/1372605401540202499
https://twitter.com/hannahmeisel/status/1372588528404676612

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Georgia is opening vaccine eligibility to all adults (age 16 and up) beginning on Thursday.

So is Texas on Monday

Alaska made sense.  But Georgia and Texas are both rank way at the bottom in terms of vaccination progress (Georgia is dead last among all states).  I’m confused as to how they can be among the first states to completely open eligibility.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Illinois: Later this morning, Gov. Pritzker is supposed to announce that he will expand vaccine eligibility to anyone over 16 effective April 12 and add at least one bridge phase before Phase 5.

Capitol Fax.

Here's the Bridge Phase that was announced by Gov. Pritzker last Thursday.

https://twitter.com/GovPritzker/status/1372605401540202499
https://twitter.com/hannahmeisel/status/1372588528404676612

This seems like a reasonable way to go about reopening.  I particularly like the policy that vaccinated people don’t count against capacity limits.  And also the “stable metrics” apparently just involve counting deaths and hospitalizations, not cases.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 3/23 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE:What's the overall change in the total?

Brackets []: These represent the total change for the day, including backlogged reports, if any.

• These numbers are inflated relative to the actual reports for the day, so they are not used to calculate the comparative percentage shifts.

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3/14: <Sunday>

• Cases: 30,081,657 (+37,995 | ΔW Change: ↓10.30% | Σ Increase: ↑0.13%)
• Deaths: 547,234 (+629 | ΔW Change: ↓12.52% | Σ Increase: ↑0.13%)

3/15: <M>

• Cases: 30,136,881 (+41,593 [+55,224] | ΔW Change: ↓7.81% | Σ Increase: ↑0.18%)
• Deaths: 548,001 (+631 [+767] | ΔW Change: ↓20.13% | Σ Increase: ↑0.14%)

3/16: <T>

• Cases: 30,190,855 (+51,281 [+53,974] | ΔW Change: ↓9.80% | Σ Increase: ↑0.18%)
• Deaths: 549,253 (+1,134 [+1,252] | ΔW Change: ↓33.45% | Σ Increase: ↑0.23%)

3/17: <W>

• Cases: 30,294,798 (+62,794 [+103,943] | ΔW Change: ↑3.59% | Σ Increase: ↑0.34%)
• Deaths: 550,649 (+1,396 | ΔW Change: ↓13.67% | Σ Increase: ↑0.25%)

3/18: <Þ>

• Cases: 30,358,880 (+62,629 [+64,082] | ΔW Change: ↓1.80% | Σ Increase: ↑0.21%)
• Deaths: 552,470 (+1,705 [+1,821] | ΔW Change: ↑11.44% | Σ Increase: ↑0.33%)

3/19: <F>

• Cases: 30,425,215 (+66,335 | ΔW Change: ↓1.76% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)
• Deaths: 554,099 (+1,263 [+1,629] | ΔW Change: ↓16.08% | Σ Increase: ↑0.29%)

3/20: <S>

• Cases: 30,480,110 (+54,895 | ΔW Change: ↑9.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.18%)
• Deaths: 554,859 (+760 | ΔW Change: ↓28.37% | Σ Increase: ↑0.14%)

3/21: <Sunday>

• Cases: 30,521,765 (+39,496 [+41,655] | ΔW Change: ↑3.95% | Σ Increase: ↑0.14%)
• Deaths: 555,314 (+455 | ΔW Change: ↓27.66% | Σ Increase: ↑0.08%)

3/22 (Yesterday): <M>

• Cases: 30,576,962 (+45,748 [+55,197] | ΔW Change: ↑9.99% | Σ Increase: ↑0.18%)
• Deaths: 555,945 (+631 | ΔW Change: =0% | Σ Increase: ↑0.11%)

3/23 (Today): <T>

• Cases: 30,636,534 (+59,572 | ΔW Change: ↑16.17% | Σ Increase: ↑0.19%)
• Deaths: 556,883 (+938 | ΔW Change: ↓17.28% | Σ Increase: ↑0.17%)

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Re: School Reopenings

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-03-22/less-than-30-of-students-ready-to-return-to-lausd-campuses-survey-shows
LA Times: Less than a third of students ready to return to LAUSD campuses

Parents of fewer than 1 in 3 students said they are ready to send their children back to Los Angeles school district campuses, a reluctance fueled by lingering health concerns as well as confusion and dissatisfaction with the in-person academic program being offered.

To build up family trust, L.A. Unified School District officials have been holding online “town halls,” while principals are meeting with parents. And on Monday, Supt. Austin Beutner announced that, starting April 5, adult family members will be offered vaccines at Lincoln High School on the Eastside and Washington Preparatory High School in South Los Angeles.

Beutner also set the week of April 12 for elementary school reopenings, starting with 60 campuses, with hundreds of others to follow the next week.

The low projected numbers of those returning are based on the results of a district survey — which has been extended beyond the original March 19 deadline. As of Monday afternoon, about 62% of families had responded. Families who don’t respond will have their children assigned to remain in distance learning for the rest of the academic year.

Of those families who submitted a survey, fewer than half opted for a return to campus. When those who are returning are juxtaposed against the total enrollment of 465,000 students in kindergarten through 12th grade, the numbers are stark: 33% of elementary school students would return, 21% of middle schoolers would and 14% of high schoolers would.

Parents in the more affluent Westside L.A. are about twice as likely to return their children to an elementary school campus as those in low-income MacArthur Park, South Los Angeles, Panorama City or Koreatown. The COVID-19 death rate is almost five times as high in MacArthur Park as in West L.A., while the vaccination rate is half as much, according to data provided by L.A. Unified.

[...]

So you'll have a "lost generation" of poor, mostly non-white kids who were already in a disadvantageous position against their white wealthy libs counter-parts, but whose parents are choosing not to send them to school over public health concerns.

But these draconian requirements were necessary, r-r-r-ight? Well...perhaps according to those poor, mostly non-white parents.

[jimrtex]

Georgia is opening vaccine eligibility to all adults (age 16 and up) beginning on Thursday.

So is Texas on Monday

Alaska made sense.  But Georgia and Texas are both rank way at the bottom in terms of vaccination progress (Georgia is dead last among all states).  I’m confused as to how they can be among the first states to completely open eligibility.

Texas is at 71.3% of over 65 receiving at least one dose, which is above the national average, and actually above Alaska.

Texas is a younger state. If someone moved to Texas in 1990 at age 25, they are now 55 and have children in 20s to 30s, and some grandchildren. The parents they left behind are now in their 70s.

When I signed up, I was just placed on a wait list with no idea when I would come up. About a week before the first shot, they gave me an opportunity to make an appointment, choosing a location and an hour. The hours were somewhat picked over.

My doctor's medical practice announced in January that they would be getting vaccines - but if you could get it elsewhere, to do so (i.e. they would not have enough for all their patients). It appears that the supply is now broadening out (Texas has a tracking site for available locations). So more pharmacies and doctors offices may have a small supply.

They can easily put those over 65 at the front of the wait list, but increasingly those under 65 will be able to come up. There is also regional balancing to consider. In some areas of Texas more than 71.3% of over 65 have received one dose.

[jimrtex]

Re: School Reopenings

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-03-22/less-than-30-of-students-ready-to-return-to-lausd-campuses-survey-shows
LA Times: Less than a third of students ready to return to LAUSD campuses

Parents of fewer than 1 in 3 students said they are ready to send their children back to Los Angeles school district campuses, a reluctance fueled by lingering health concerns as well as confusion and dissatisfaction with the in-person academic program being offered.

To build up family trust, L.A. Unified School District officials have been holding online “town halls,” while principals are meeting with parents. And on Monday, Supt. Austin Beutner announced that, starting April 5, adult family members will be offered vaccines at Lincoln High School on the Eastside and Washington Preparatory High School in South Los Angeles.

Beutner also set the week of April 12 for elementary school reopenings, starting with 60 campuses, with hundreds of others to follow the next week.

The low projected numbers of those returning are based on the results of a district survey — which has been extended beyond the original March 19 deadline. As of Monday afternoon, about 62% of families had responded. Families who don’t respond will have their children assigned to remain in distance learning for the rest of the academic year.

Of those families who submitted a survey, fewer than half opted for a return to campus. When those who are returning are juxtaposed against the total enrollment of 465,000 students in kindergarten through 12th grade, the numbers are stark: 33% of elementary school students would return, 21% of middle schoolers would and 14% of high schoolers would.

Parents in the more affluent Westside L.A. are about twice as likely to return their children to an elementary school campus as those in low-income MacArthur Park, South Los Angeles, Panorama City or Koreatown. The COVID-19 death rate is almost five times as high in MacArthur Park as in West L.A., while the vaccination rate is half as much, according to data provided by L.A. Unified.

[...]

So you'll have a "lost generation" of poor, mostly non-white kids who were already in a disadvantageous position against their white wealthy libs counter-parts, but whose parents are choosing not to send them to school over public health concerns.

But these draconian requirements were necessary, r-r-r-ight? Well...perhaps according to those poor, mostly non-white parents.

What were they being offered for "in school".

In some cases, it meant being divided into two groups who would attend class for two-to-three hours in the morning or afternoon with no lunch (that time would be for sanitizing everything). This would be four days a week, with the remainder of time being filled with homework.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Re: School Reopenings

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-03-22/less-than-30-of-students-ready-to-return-to-lausd-campuses-survey-shows
LA Times: Less than a third of students ready to return to LAUSD campuses

Parents of fewer than 1 in 3 students said they are ready to send their children back to Los Angeles school district campuses, a reluctance fueled by lingering health concerns as well as confusion and dissatisfaction with the in-person academic program being offered.

To build up family trust, L.A. Unified School District officials have been holding online “town halls,” while principals are meeting with parents. And on Monday, Supt. Austin Beutner announced that, starting April 5, adult family members will be offered vaccines at Lincoln High School on the Eastside and Washington Preparatory High School in South Los Angeles.

Beutner also set the week of April 12 for elementary school reopenings, starting with 60 campuses, with hundreds of others to follow the next week.

The low projected numbers of those returning are based on the results of a district survey — which has been extended beyond the original March 19 deadline. As of Monday afternoon, about 62% of families had responded. Families who don’t respond will have their children assigned to remain in distance learning for the rest of the academic year.

Of those families who submitted a survey, fewer than half opted for a return to campus. When those who are returning are juxtaposed against the total enrollment of 465,000 students in kindergarten through 12th grade, the numbers are stark: 33% of elementary school students would return, 21% of middle schoolers would and 14% of high schoolers would.

Parents in the more affluent Westside L.A. are about twice as likely to return their children to an elementary school campus as those in low-income MacArthur Park, South Los Angeles, Panorama City or Koreatown. The COVID-19 death rate is almost five times as high in MacArthur Park as in West L.A., while the vaccination rate is half as much, according to data provided by L.A. Unified.

[...]

So you'll have a "lost generation" of poor, mostly non-white kids who were already in a disadvantageous position against their white wealthy libs counter-parts, but whose parents are choosing not to send them to school over public health concerns.

But these draconian requirements were necessary, r-r-r-ight? Well...perhaps according to those poor, mostly non-white parents.

Yes, the most awful part of it, is that Democrats and the Unions quite succeeded in their fearmongering, probably mostly because Trump happened to be for re-opening. The same with GOP and their soft stance on anti-vaxers - some (R) voters now don't want to get vaccinated. Less educated => more sensitive to anti-science fearmongering.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/postlocal/status/1374424276384641030

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 3/24 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE:What's the overall change in the total?

Brackets []: These represent the total change for the day, including backlogged reports, if any.

• These numbers are inflated relative to the actual reports for the day, so they are not used to calculate the comparative percentage shifts.

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3/14: <Sunday>

• Cases: 30,081,657 (+37,995 | ΔW Change: ↓10.30% | Σ Increase: ↑0.13%)
• Deaths: 547,234 (+629 | ΔW Change: ↓12.52% | Σ Increase: ↑0.13%)

3/15: <M>

• Cases: 30,136,881 (+41,593 [+55,224] | ΔW Change: ↓7.81% | Σ Increase: ↑0.18%)
• Deaths: 548,001 (+631 [+767] | ΔW Change: ↓20.13% | Σ Increase: ↑0.14%)

3/16: <T>

• Cases: 30,190,855 (+51,281 [+53,974] | ΔW Change: ↓9.80% | Σ Increase: ↑0.18%)
• Deaths: 549,253 (+1,134 [+1,252] | ΔW Change: ↓33.45% | Σ Increase: ↑0.23%)

3/17: <W>

• Cases: 30,294,798 (+62,794 [+103,943] | ΔW Change: ↑3.59% | Σ Increase: ↑0.34%)
• Deaths: 550,649 (+1,396 | ΔW Change: ↓13.67% | Σ Increase: ↑0.25%)

3/18: <Þ>

• Cases: 30,358,880 (+62,629 [+64,082] | ΔW Change: ↓1.80% | Σ Increase: ↑0.21%)
• Deaths: 552,470 (+1,705 [+1,821] | ΔW Change: ↑11.44% | Σ Increase: ↑0.33%)

3/19: <F>

• Cases: 30,425,215 (+66,335 | ΔW Change: ↓1.76% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)
• Deaths: 554,099 (+1,263 [+1,629] | ΔW Change: ↓16.08% | Σ Increase: ↑0.29%)

3/20: <S>

• Cases: 30,480,110 (+54,895 | ΔW Change: ↑9.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.18%)
• Deaths: 554,859 (+760 | ΔW Change: ↓28.37% | Σ Increase: ↑0.14%)

3/21: <Sunday>

• Cases: 30,521,765 (+39,496 [+41,655] | ΔW Change: ↑3.95% | Σ Increase: ↑0.14%)
• Deaths: 555,314 (+455 | ΔW Change: ↓27.66% | Σ Increase: ↑0.08%)

3/22: <M>

• Cases: 30,576,962 (+45,748 [+55,197] | ΔW Change: ↑9.99% | Σ Increase: ↑0.18%)
• Deaths: 555,945 (+631 | ΔW Change: =0% | Σ Increase: ↑0.11%)

3/23 (Yesterday): <T>

• Cases: 30,636,534 (+59,572 | ΔW Change: ↑16.17% | Σ Increase: ↑0.19%)
• Deaths: 556,883 (+938 | ΔW Change: ↓17.28% | Σ Increase: ↑0.17%)

3/24 (Today): <W>

• Cases: 30,704,292 (+67,758 | ΔW Change: ↑7.91% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)
• Deaths: 558,422 (+1,405 [+1,539] | ΔW Change: ↑0.64% | Σ Increase: ↑0.28%)

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

Why are the red? What’s going on? New variants causing trouble?

[Dr. Arch]

Why are the red? What’s going on? New variants causing trouble?

No, just people making bad decisions and bad policy from certain state governments.

[philly09]

Why are the red? What’s going on? New variants causing trouble?

No, just people making bad decisions and bad policy from certain state governments.

New York just backlogged over 20,000 cases today, which inflated the total to over 79,000 on the Google case tracker.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I noticed that Oklahoma is only counting deaths once a week now.  The past few weeks they counted them on Tuesdays, but for some reason this week they counted them all on Wednesday.

[Sir Mohamed]

I think it's about time to rename the thread. Perhaps something like "The great vaccination of the Republic". Presidential superspreader is news from Oct. 2020.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

It feels like every other day we get loud calls to change the thread name, yet they never get answered. It's been like this for months now.

What's the hold-up?

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

It feels like every other day we get loud calls to change the thread name, yet they never get answered. It's been like this for months now.

What's the hold-up?

We are the forgotten people.