COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

https://twitter.com/ashishkjha/status/1373610236221734912

We aren’t “running even” if you look at the graph of deaths.  The purpose of vaccinating the elderly and vulnerable first was to prioritize reducing deaths over just reducing cases.  If we just wanted to reduce cases we’d have adopted a much different policy, probably involving vaccinating college kids first or something like that.

We’ve reduced deaths by almost 50% in the last 2 weeks!

also, people have almost surely increased their social activity in the past month too

[Progressive Pessimist]

So why is it not racist to refer to the new variants as the South African/Brazilian?

I don't think it's inherently racist to call it the China virus; but Trump's intent was to disparage the Chinese, not identify the virus by region.

That's also evident by the other interchangeable moniker of "Kung Flu."

Nobody has yet to call the other variants by some sort of slur or mocking phrase.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 3/21 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE:What's the overall change in the total?

Brackets []: These represent the total change for the day, including backlogged reports, if any.

• These numbers are inflated relative to the actual reports for the day, so they are not used to calculate the comparative percentage shifts.

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3/14: <Sunday>

• Cases: 30,081,657 (+37,995 | ΔW Change: ↓10.30% | Σ Increase: ↑0.13%)
• Deaths: 547,234 (+629 | ΔW Change: ↓12.52% | Σ Increase: ↑0.13%)

3/15: <M>

• Cases: 30,136,881 (+41,593 [+55,224] | ΔW Change: ↓7.81% | Σ Increase: ↑0.18%)
• Deaths: 548,001 (+631 [+767] | ΔW Change: ↓20.13% | Σ Increase: ↑0.14%)

3/16: <T>

• Cases: 30,190,855 (+51,281 [+53,974] | ΔW Change: ↓9.80% | Σ Increase: ↑0.18%)
• Deaths: 549,253 (+1,134 [+1,252] | ΔW Change: ↓33.45% | Σ Increase: ↑0.23%)

3/17: <W>

• Cases: 30,294,798 (+62,794 [+103,943] | ΔW Change: ↑3.59% | Σ Increase: ↑0.34%)
• Deaths: 550,649 (+1,396 | ΔW Change: ↓13.67% | Σ Increase: ↑0.25%)

3/18: <Þ>

• Cases: 30,358,880 (+62,629 [+64,082] | ΔW Change: ↓1.80% | Σ Increase: ↑0.21%)
• Deaths: 552,470 (+1,705 [+1,821] | ΔW Change: ↑11.44% | Σ Increase: ↑0.33%)

3/19: <F>

• Cases: 30,425,215 (+66,335 | ΔW Change: ↓1.76% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)
• Deaths: 554,099 (+1,263 [+1,629] | ΔW Change: ↓16.08% | Σ Increase: ↑0.29%)

3/20 (Yesterday): <S>

• Cases: 30,480,110 (+54,895 | ΔW Change: ↑9.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.18%)
• Deaths: 554,859 (+760 | ΔW Change: ↓28.37% | Σ Increase: ↑0.14%)

3/21 (Today): <Sunday>

• Cases: 30,521,765 (+39,496 [+41,655] | ΔW Change: ↑3.95% | Σ Increase: ↑0.14%)
• Deaths: 555,314 (+455 | ΔW Change: ↓27.66% | Σ Increase: ↑0.08%)

[Not Me, Us]

So this is awful, right? Cases should not be going up. It's starting to seem like this pandemic will never end.

[TarHeelDem]

Restrictions have been relaxed way too soon. So sad to see.

[jamestroll]

Restrictions have been relaxed way too soon. So sad to see.

So this is awful, right? Cases should not be going up. It's starting to seem like this pandemic will never end.

Personally, me as a governor? I wouldn't have lifted a mask mandate or capacity restrictions. But I really do not care either. I am ecstatic that deaths are going down. At this point I am more looking at death statistics rather than case numbers. Though I will be concerned if we start to see 100k cases again. Which, I admit, could happen in April for a few days.

[emailking]

The experts have been predicting for weeks now that cases would go up again because of the more contagious variants. Hopefully it won't be by too much.

[emailking]

AstraZeneca vaccine is 79% effective against symptomatic Covid-19, company says

AstraZeneca's Covid-19 vaccine showed 79% efficacy against symptomatic disease and 100% efficacy against severe disease and hospitalization in a new, US-based clinical trial, the company said Monday.

The findings from the new Phase 3 trial, which included more than 32,000 participants, may boost confidence in the vaccine, which was originally developed by the University of Oxford.

The trial showed that the vaccine was well-tolerated and identified no safety concerns, the company said. An independent committee "found no increased risk of thrombosis or events characterized by thrombosis among the 21,583 participants receiving at least one dose of the vaccine," according to AstraZeneca.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/22/health/astrazeneca-vaccine-efficacy-us-based-clinical-trial/index.html

[HagridOfTheDeep]

AstraZeneca vaccine is 79% effective against symptomatic Covid-19, company says

AstraZeneca's Covid-19 vaccine showed 79% efficacy against symptomatic disease and 100% efficacy against severe disease and hospitalization in a new, US-based clinical trial, the company said Monday.

The findings from the new Phase 3 trial, which included more than 32,000 participants, may boost confidence in the vaccine, which was originally developed by the University of Oxford.

The trial showed that the vaccine was well-tolerated and identified no safety concerns, the company said. An independent committee "found no increased risk of thrombosis or events characterized by thrombosis among the 21,583 participants receiving at least one dose of the vaccine," according to AstraZeneca.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/22/health/astrazeneca-vaccine-efficacy-us-based-clinical-trial/index.html

Great news. Seems like Canada has been buying up a lot of the AstraZeneca shipments that other countries have decided they don't want anymore.

I'm in a "high-risk" profession that wasn't previously being prioritized for vaccines, but BC recently changed course and is going to offer the unexpected AstraZeneca vaccines to front-line workers. I'll take it, but I'd be lying if I said I hadn't previously been a bit bummed about getting AstraZeneca. I know I shouldn't have been, because they're all "good" vaccines and you take what you get... but 95% sounded better. Anyhow, long story short: This news satisfies me.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1371955137313398784
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1371959892177788928
Well, yeah, Nate. I would add that a) "media and other elites" knew exactly how it was and purposely lied to steal election (and they succeed in deceiving enough people to Trump to lose). b) "Trump's behavior" had abysmal role in it. In these parts where a president had power to do, he used it. He tried to close the border - would be way more effective, if Dems, instead of critizing and obstruct it, would cheer it and demanding more closure (against Europe and interstate). He force Mitch to get 2T Bill through Senate, though he couldn't force Pelosi to get through second 1.7T Bill; his disdain to muh fiscal conservatism facilitated for Biden as well (much more difficult to complain about Biden, when Trump sent a lot of $$$ to Americans and brag about it). And he got vaccines* done and get them to US. He tried, but, unfortunately, mostly failed to keep public schools open because of MSM and D's anti-science - muh orange bad, school dangerous.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Thanks Gretchen Whitmer.

[Inmate Trump]

Just when I was getting more comfortable.



Are we ever getting out of this?

[Person Man]

At least deaths are going down. Eventually, we are going to have to accept it as a part of life if cases keep rising. At a certain point, you just have to give up.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

We REALLY need to start seeing cases/hospitalization/death stats broken down by vaccination status.

I have to think these would be the most powerful evidence you could show people to convince them to get the vaccine, and also convince doomers that the pandemic really is almost over in the US.

[Roll Roons]

Attention doomers:

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1373994298312691714

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I also read that somebody said the steep decline of cases in the U.S. wasn't caused by vaccinations, but that a bigger drop from vaccinations will be occurring soon.

[Sir Mohamed]

I also read that somebody said the steep decline of cases in the U.S. wasn't caused by vaccinations, but that a bigger drop from vaccinations will be occurring soon.

What else caused the decline then, according to these? Natural immunity through infections? I think it's combination of both. Latter is hard to measure since we can only estimate the actual number of cases (which is much higher than positive test). The virus definitely hasn't become less transferable in recent months. Due to variants, the opposite is actually true.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The problem with blanket statements such as "decline is caused by factor X and not factor Y" is that ALL of the factors affect transmission, and they're all operating simultaneously.  Ultimately it comes down to a very simple equation: if R, the average number of persons infected by one person, is greater than 1 then the disease will continue to spread.  If R is less than 1 then it will eventually die out, or at least reduce to a manageable level; but depending on how much lower than 1 it is, and how many cases are already out there, this reduction can take a very long time.

Although that’s a simple statement, in practice it’s far from simple.  Many factors influence R over time.  The initial R value for COVID-19 was estimated at anywhere between 1.4 and 5; for comparison, seasonal flu is usually in the range 1.2 to 2 while measles (which is extremely contagious) is about 15.  But different COVID variants have different properties, including how contagious they are; some of the more recent variants appear to have higher R values than older strains. 

Human activity affects the effective value of R; for example, all of these can help R go down:

Vaccinations
People being infected and recovering (ignoring the possibility of reinfection, which appears to be quite low)
Masks when around other people
Social distancing while around other people
Staying away from other people (whether mandated lockdown or from personal caution)

On the flip side, behaviors that bring more people close together will make R go up, e.g. getting together (especially in large, close gatherings), not wearing masks around others, and activities like singing and shouting that spread aerosol droplets further.

All of these factors are constantly working in both directions.  Some new variants are more contagious, which would cause us to lose ground.  But more and more people are being vaccinated, which makes progress against the virus.  The graph I posted above showed that these two factors seemed to be in something of an equilibrium at the moment in the U.S.
In some other countries things are different: the EU is losing ground because they're not vaccinating fast enough to counteract other factors (new variants plus people doing less distancing, etc.), while Israel is the opposite: their aggressive vaccination program has them actually winning.

The key lesson here is that it's important not to ignore the other factors.  We need to continue to practice social distancing, masking, etc., until the virus is much more under control than it currently is.  It doesn’t take much to push R to the other side of 1 – in either direction.  And a very small difference in R makes a world of difference overall.

[ilikeverin]

GeorgiaMod's post said what I was going to say much more clearly and eloquently. I think the short version is: we're at nowhere near the level of vaccination that we'd necessarily see cases falling, so we shouldn't be too upset to see cases rising (except insofar as it tells us that people or governments are doing stupid things). However, we are at a level of vaccination (and a time post-vaccination) where we should see deaths falling, and indeed we are

We have the good news we could reasonably expect now, and hopefully soon enough (say, June) we'll see Israel-style good news on cases, too.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1371515556738777093


Hm. Hm. Hmmmm...


So one side chose to kill the economy and to close the public (=poor/minority) schools, while the other side tried to keep it open as far as possible and it's still "hard to find a consistent pattern in policy success or failure".

[emailking]

Nobody here is trying to prop up Nate's stream of thoughts on this subject.

[Calthrina950]

The problem with blanket statements such as "decline is caused by factor X and not factor Y" is that ALL of the factors affect transmission, and they're all operating simultaneously.  Ultimately it comes down to a very simple equation: if R, the average number of persons infected by one person, is greater than 1 then the disease will continue to spread.  If R is less than 1 then it will eventually die out, or at least reduce to a manageable level; but depending on how much lower than 1 it is, and how many cases are already out there, this reduction can take a very long time.

Although that’s a simple statement, in practice it’s far from simple.  Many factors influence R over time.  The initial R value for COVID-19 was estimated at anywhere between 1.4 and 5; for comparison, seasonal flu is usually in the range 1.2 to 2 while measles (which is extremely contagious) is about 15.  But different COVID variants have different properties, including how contagious they are; some of the more recent variants appear to have higher R values than older strains. 

Human activity affects the effective value of R; for example, all of these can help R go down:

Vaccinations
People being infected and recovering (ignoring the possibility of reinfection, which appears to be quite low)
Masks when around other people
Social distancing while around other people
Staying away from other people (whether mandated lockdown or from personal caution)

On the flip side, behaviors that bring more people close together will make R go up, e.g. getting together (especially in large, close gatherings), not wearing masks around others, and activities like singing and shouting that spread aerosol droplets further.

All of these factors are constantly working in both directions.  Some new variants are more contagious, which would cause us to lose ground.  But more and more people are being vaccinated, which makes progress against the virus.  The graph I posted above showed that these two factors seemed to be in something of an equilibrium at the moment in the U.S.
In some other countries things are different: the EU is losing ground because they're not vaccinating fast enough to counteract other factors (new variants plus people doing less distancing, etc.), while Israel is the opposite: their aggressive vaccination program has them actually winning.

The key lesson here is that it's important not to ignore the other factors.  We need to continue to practice social distancing, masking, etc., until the virus is much more under control than it currently is.  It doesn’t take much to push R to the other side of 1 – in either direction.  And a very small difference in R makes a world of difference overall.

How much longer do you envision these practices lasting? Until this summer? Or until the end of the year?

[GeorgiaModerate]

The problem with blanket statements such as "decline is caused by factor X and not factor Y" is that ALL of the factors affect transmission, and they're all operating simultaneously.  Ultimately it comes down to a very simple equation: if R, the average number of persons infected by one person, is greater than 1 then the disease will continue to spread.  If R is less than 1 then it will eventually die out, or at least reduce to a manageable level; but depending on how much lower than 1 it is, and how many cases are already out there, this reduction can take a very long time.

Although that’s a simple statement, in practice it’s far from simple.  Many factors influence R over time.  The initial R value for COVID-19 was estimated at anywhere between 1.4 and 5; for comparison, seasonal flu is usually in the range 1.2 to 2 while measles (which is extremely contagious) is about 15.  But different COVID variants have different properties, including how contagious they are; some of the more recent variants appear to have higher R values than older strains. 

Human activity affects the effective value of R; for example, all of these can help R go down:

Vaccinations
People being infected and recovering (ignoring the possibility of reinfection, which appears to be quite low)
Masks when around other people
Social distancing while around other people
Staying away from other people (whether mandated lockdown or from personal caution)

On the flip side, behaviors that bring more people close together will make R go up, e.g. getting together (especially in large, close gatherings), not wearing masks around others, and activities like singing and shouting that spread aerosol droplets further.

All of these factors are constantly working in both directions.  Some new variants are more contagious, which would cause us to lose ground.  But more and more people are being vaccinated, which makes progress against the virus.  The graph I posted above showed that these two factors seemed to be in something of an equilibrium at the moment in the U.S.
In some other countries things are different: the EU is losing ground because they're not vaccinating fast enough to counteract other factors (new variants plus people doing less distancing, etc.), while Israel is the opposite: their aggressive vaccination program has them actually winning.

The key lesson here is that it's important not to ignore the other factors.  We need to continue to practice social distancing, masking, etc., until the virus is much more under control than it currently is.  It doesn’t take much to push R to the other side of 1 – in either direction.  And a very small difference in R makes a world of difference overall.

How much longer do you envision these practices lasting? Until this summer? Or until the end of the year?

If we can continue vaccinating at the current rate, then I think they could safely be relaxed by the end of summer.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 3/22 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE:What's the overall change in the total?

Brackets []: These represent the total change for the day, including backlogged reports, if any.

• These numbers are inflated relative to the actual reports for the day, so they are not used to calculate the comparative percentage shifts.

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3/14: <Sunday>

• Cases: 30,081,657 (+37,995 | ΔW Change: ↓10.30% | Σ Increase: ↑0.13%)
• Deaths: 547,234 (+629 | ΔW Change: ↓12.52% | Σ Increase: ↑0.13%)

3/15: <M>

• Cases: 30,136,881 (+41,593 [+55,224] | ΔW Change: ↓7.81% | Σ Increase: ↑0.18%)
• Deaths: 548,001 (+631 [+767] | ΔW Change: ↓20.13% | Σ Increase: ↑0.14%)

3/16: <T>

• Cases: 30,190,855 (+51,281 [+53,974] | ΔW Change: ↓9.80% | Σ Increase: ↑0.18%)
• Deaths: 549,253 (+1,134 [+1,252] | ΔW Change: ↓33.45% | Σ Increase: ↑0.23%)

3/17: <W>

• Cases: 30,294,798 (+62,794 [+103,943] | ΔW Change: ↑3.59% | Σ Increase: ↑0.34%)
• Deaths: 550,649 (+1,396 | ΔW Change: ↓13.67% | Σ Increase: ↑0.25%)

3/18: <Þ>

• Cases: 30,358,880 (+62,629 [+64,082] | ΔW Change: ↓1.80% | Σ Increase: ↑0.21%)
• Deaths: 552,470 (+1,705 [+1,821] | ΔW Change: ↑11.44% | Σ Increase: ↑0.33%)

3/19: <F>

• Cases: 30,425,215 (+66,335 | ΔW Change: ↓1.76% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)
• Deaths: 554,099 (+1,263 [+1,629] | ΔW Change: ↓16.08% | Σ Increase: ↑0.29%)

3/20: <S>

• Cases: 30,480,110 (+54,895 | ΔW Change: ↑9.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.18%)
• Deaths: 554,859 (+760 | ΔW Change: ↓28.37% | Σ Increase: ↑0.14%)

3/21 (Yesterday): <Sunday>

• Cases: 30,521,765 (+39,496 [+41,655] | ΔW Change: ↑3.95% | Σ Increase: ↑0.14%)
• Deaths: 555,314 (+455 | ΔW Change: ↓27.66% | Σ Increase: ↑0.08%)

3/22 (Today): <M>

• Cases: 30,576,962 (+45,748 [+55,197] | ΔW Change: ↑9.99% | Σ Increase: ↑0.18%)
• Deaths: 555,945 (+631 | ΔW Change: =0% | Σ Increase: ↑0.11%)

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

What’s everyone dooming about now?