COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[Crumpets]

https://twitter.com/ZackBornstein/status/1362151993804943361

[emailking]

I read this article, and I can’t understand where this calculation is coming from. 

Covid has killed about 0.15% of Americans.  If the deaths were equally spread across all age groups, whis would result in an overall decline in life expectancy of about 0.05 years.  And since the deaths were heavily weighted toward older people, this number is actually much, much lower. 

The article says it also accounts for things like drug overdoses and alcoholism as a result of the shut downs, but these would have to be like 100x more deadly than the actual virus for the total to make sense.

I don't know but here's the report.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsrr/VSRR10-508.pdf

[jimrtex]

US life expectancy dropped a full year in first half of 2020, according to CDC

Life expectancy in the US dropped a full year in the first half of 2020, according to a report published Thursday by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Center for Health Statistics. Experts say that Covid-19 was a significant factor contributing to the decline.

The life expectancy for the entire US population fell to 77.8 years, similar to what it was in 2006, CDC data shows.

Changes to life expectancy also widened racial and ethnic inequities. Compared to 2019, life expectancy for non-Hispanic Black people in the US fell about three times what it did for non-Hispanic White people, by 2.7 years. It fell by twice as much for Hispanic people, by 1.9 years.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/18/health/life-expectancy-fell-pandemic/index.html

I read this article, and I can’t understand where this calculation is coming from. 

Covid has killed about 0.15% of Americans.  If the deaths were equally spread across all age groups, whis would result in an overall decline in life expectancy of about 0.05 years.  And since the deaths were heavily weighted toward older people, this number is actually much, much lower. 

The article says it also accounts for things like drug overdoses and alcoholism as a result of the shut downs, but these would have to be like 100x more deadly than the actual virus for the total to make sense.

The actual CDC articles is here:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsrr/VSRR10-508.pdf

The key is the Technical Notes on Page 7, column 3. Notice how the age-specific death rate is calculated: Deaths (for age group)/Population(for age group) * 2. The multiplication by two is to account for the deaths occurring between January and June 2021 being annualized.

The age-specific death rate is propagated (e.g. L₀ = 100,000 age 0, L_{1 =} L₀ (1-r₀) will be living at age one;
L₂ = L₁ (1-r₁); etc.

You can calculate the total number of years lived by any cohort and divide by the initial number to calculate the average (mean) lived. This is the life expectancy they are using.

(Bad) Assumptions being made: Those born in 2020 will experience the death rate for 75 YO in the first half of 2020, in 2095 when they themselves are 2095, and then when they are 76 in 2096 they will replicate the experience of those who were 76 in 2020, etc. and this will actually start around age 55 to 60 when people begin to die in noticeable numbers.

If you keep applying an elevated death rate year after year, it begins to add up.

I don't know how life expectancy is ordinarily calculated. I would assume that you would use age-specific death rates over several years (10?) and average them, or even better to statistically weight them to reject outliers.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 2/18 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

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2/7: <Sunday>

• Cases: 27,611,403 (+91,767 | ΔW Change: ↓9.58% | Σ Increase: ↑0.33%)
• Deaths: 474,933 (+1,405 | ΔW Change: ↓25.97% | Σ Increase: ↑0.30%)

2/8: <M>

• Cases: 27,700,629 (+89,226 | ΔW Change: ↓38.10% | Σ Increase: ↑0.32%)
• Deaths: 476,405 (+1,472 | ΔW Change: ↓23.89% | Σ Increase: ↑0.31%)

2/9: <T>

• Cases: 27,799,756 (+99,127 | ΔW Change: ↓14.53% | Σ Increase: ↑0.36%)
• Deaths: 479,772 (+3,367 | ΔW Change: ↓7.58% | Σ Increase: ↑0.71%)

2/10: <W>

• Cases: 27,897,214 (+97,458 | ΔW Change: ↓20.84% | Σ Increase: ↑0.35%)
• Deaths: 483,200 (+3,428 | ΔW Change: ↓15.86% | Σ Increase: ↑0.71%)

2/11: <Þ>

• Cases: 28,002,240 (+105,026 | ΔW Change: ↓14.91% | Σ Increase: ↑0.38%)
• Deaths: 486,922 (+3,722 | ΔW Change: ↓26.41% | Σ Increase: ↑0.77%)

2/12: <F>

• Cases: 28,106,704 (+104,464 | ΔW Change: ↓21.71% | Σ Increase: ↑0.37%)
• Deaths: 492,521 (+2,908 [+5,599] | ΔW Change: ↓14.90% | Σ Increase: ↑1.15%)

2/13: <S>

• Cases: 28,196,964 (+90,260 | ΔW Change: ↓19.63% | Σ Increase: ↑0.32%)
• Deaths: 496,063 (+2,272 [+3,542] | ΔW Change: ↓19.52% | Σ Increase: ↑0.72%)

2/14: <Sunday>

• Cases: 28,261,470 (+64,506 | ΔW Change: ↓29.71% | Σ Increase: ↑0.23%)
• Deaths: 497,174 (+1,111 | ΔW Change: ↓20.93% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)

2/15: <M>

• Cases: 28,317,703 (+56,233 | ΔW Change: ↓36.98% | Σ Increase: ↑0.20%)
• Deaths: 498,203 (+1,029 | ΔW Change: ↓30.10% | Σ Increase: ↑0.21%)

2/16: <T>

• Cases: 28,381,220 (+63,517 | ΔW Change: ↓35.92% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)
• Deaths: 499,991 (+1,788 | ΔW Change: ↓46.90% | Σ Increase: ↑0.36%)

2/17 (Yesterday): <W>

• Cases: 28,453,526 (+72,706 | ΔW Change: ↓25.40% | Σ Increase: ↑0.25%)
• Deaths: 502,544 (+2,553 | ΔW Change: ↓25.53% | Σ Increase: ↑0.51%)

2/18 (Today): <Þ>

• Cases: 28,523,524 (+69,998 | ΔW Change: ↓33.35% | Σ Increase: ↑0.25%)
• Deaths: 505,309 (+2,765 | ΔW Change: ↓25.71% | Σ Increase: ↑0.55%)

[jamestroll]

May I ask a serious question?

How come much of the left has been very pro-lockdown when it clearly hurts the poor the most? and when you argue against lockdowns, they respond with retorts so dismissive that its clear they did not read past the first sentence.

Not trying to insult anyone or start a fight here.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

How come much of the left has been very pro-lockdown when it clearly hurts the poor the most?

Because they're fake wokesters and narcissists, not real leftists.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

A new study in New England Journal of Medicine shows that getting just one dose of both Pfizer and Moderna is 92 percent effective after just two weeks.  

https://news.yahoo.com/pfizer-moderna-vaccines-prove-92-193917869.html

It’s so frustrating that we’ve been so rigid about this and have insisted on basically wasting half of our vaccine supply while it is still so scarce.

[Sir Mohamed]

A new study in New England Journal of Medicine shows that getting just one dose of both Pfizer and Moderna is 92 percent effective after just two weeks.  

https://news.yahoo.com/pfizer-moderna-vaccines-prove-92-193917869.html

It’s so frustrating that we’ve been so rigid about this and have insisted on basically wasting half of our vaccine supply while it is still so scarce.

The main issue with this vaccine and its distribution seems the fact that it needs to be stored at -50°F or so. That's an additional difficulty for quick massdelivery.

As far as I know, the Johnson & Johnson and Astra-Zeneca vaccines can be stored at fridge temperatures. That makes it a lot easier.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

A new study in New England Journal of Medicine shows that getting just one dose of both Pfizer and Moderna is 92 percent effective after just two weeks.  

https://news.yahoo.com/pfizer-moderna-vaccines-prove-92-193917869.html

It’s so frustrating that we’ve been so rigid about this and have insisted on basically wasting half of our vaccine supply while it is still so scarce.

The main issue with this vaccine and its distribution seems the fact that it needs to be stored at -50°F or so. That's an additional difficulty for quick massdelivery.

As far as I know, the Johnson & Johnson and Astra-Zeneca vaccines can be stored at fridge temperatures. That makes it a lot easier.

I believe Moderna needs a standard freezer only, so it's a lot easier than Pfizer to distribute.

[LabourJersey]

A new study in New England Journal of Medicine shows that getting just one dose of both Pfizer and Moderna is 92 percent effective after just two weeks.  

https://news.yahoo.com/pfizer-moderna-vaccines-prove-92-193917869.html

It’s so frustrating that we’ve been so rigid about this and have insisted on basically wasting half of our vaccine supply while it is still so scarce.

Their original studies said the 1st dose was only 52% effective, according to the article. You can't blame Moderna and Pfizer insisting on two doses if that's what their original research said.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

A new study in New England Journal of Medicine shows that getting just one dose of both Pfizer and Moderna is 92 percent effective after just two weeks.  

https://news.yahoo.com/pfizer-moderna-vaccines-prove-92-193917869.html

It’s so frustrating that we’ve been so rigid about this and have insisted on basically wasting half of our vaccine supply while it is still so scarce.

Their original studies said the 1st dose was only 52% effective, according to the article. You can't blame Moderna and Pfizer insisting on two doses if that's what their original research said.

Their original research supported the same conclusion as this study; it also found almost 90% effectiveness of one dose after two weeks.  The 52% figure that kept getting quoted was evaluating the effectiveness of the first dose starting immediately after the vaccine was given.

[soundchaser]

May I ask a serious question?

How come much of the left has been very pro-lockdown when it clearly hurts the poor the most? and when you argue against lockdowns, they respond with retorts so dismissive that its clear they did not read past the first sentence.

Not trying to insult anyone or start a fight here.

I've been pro-lockdown for the better part of a year now, but I also recognize that you can't do lockdowns without a government willing to support its citizens in staying home. And that's obviously just not going to happen in this country. So it's a tough tightrope to walk.

[Not Me, Us]

May I ask a serious question?

How come much of the left has been very pro-lockdown when it clearly hurts the poor the most? and when you argue against lockdowns, they respond with retorts so dismissive that its clear they did not read past the first sentence.

Not trying to insult anyone or start a fight here.

I'm generally pro-lockdown, but I also believe that the government should be monetarily supporting those who the lockdown impacts. We should be compensating small businesses for their lost income and should be paying Americans at least $2,000 a month to stay home, if not more.

[emailking]

May I ask a serious question?

How come much of the left has been very pro-lockdown when it clearly hurts the poor the most? and when you argue against lockdowns, they respond with retorts so dismissive that its clear they did not read past the first sentence.

Not trying to insult anyone or start a fight here.

Because it would hurt them even more if they got Covid?

But yeah, what we should be doing is increasing taxes on the rich and giving additional help to the poor until we get through this.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Cases today crossed a threshold that seemed meaningful to me, though maybe not anyone else: 

For the first time since late October, average cases are now below the peak of the -second- wave in late July. 

So we can no longer say the case numbers are still worse than anything we saw over the summer.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 2/19 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

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2/7: <Sunday>

• Cases: 27,611,403 (+91,767 | ΔW Change: ↓9.58% | Σ Increase: ↑0.33%)
• Deaths: 474,933 (+1,405 | ΔW Change: ↓25.97% | Σ Increase: ↑0.30%)

2/8: <M>

• Cases: 27,700,629 (+89,226 | ΔW Change: ↓38.10% | Σ Increase: ↑0.32%)
• Deaths: 476,405 (+1,472 | ΔW Change: ↓23.89% | Σ Increase: ↑0.31%)

2/9: <T>

• Cases: 27,799,756 (+99,127 | ΔW Change: ↓14.53% | Σ Increase: ↑0.36%)
• Deaths: 479,772 (+3,367 | ΔW Change: ↓7.58% | Σ Increase: ↑0.71%)

2/10: <W>

• Cases: 27,897,214 (+97,458 | ΔW Change: ↓20.84% | Σ Increase: ↑0.35%)
• Deaths: 483,200 (+3,428 | ΔW Change: ↓15.86% | Σ Increase: ↑0.71%)

2/11: <Þ>

• Cases: 28,002,240 (+105,026 | ΔW Change: ↓14.91% | Σ Increase: ↑0.38%)
• Deaths: 486,922 (+3,722 | ΔW Change: ↓26.41% | Σ Increase: ↑0.77%)

2/12: <F>

• Cases: 28,106,704 (+104,464 | ΔW Change: ↓21.71% | Σ Increase: ↑0.37%)
• Deaths: 492,521 (+2,908 [+5,599] | ΔW Change: ↓14.90% | Σ Increase: ↑1.15%)

2/13: <S>

• Cases: 28,196,964 (+90,260 | ΔW Change: ↓19.63% | Σ Increase: ↑0.32%)
• Deaths: 496,063 (+2,272 [+3,542] | ΔW Change: ↓19.52% | Σ Increase: ↑0.72%)

2/14: <Sunday>

• Cases: 28,261,470 (+64,506 | ΔW Change: ↓29.71% | Σ Increase: ↑0.23%)
• Deaths: 497,174 (+1,111 | ΔW Change: ↓20.93% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)

2/15: <M>

• Cases: 28,317,703 (+56,233 | ΔW Change: ↓36.98% | Σ Increase: ↑0.20%)
• Deaths: 498,203 (+1,029 | ΔW Change: ↓30.10% | Σ Increase: ↑0.21%)

2/16: <T>

• Cases: 28,381,220 (+63,517 | ΔW Change: ↓35.92% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)
• Deaths: 499,991 (+1,788 | ΔW Change: ↓46.90% | Σ Increase: ↑0.36%)

2/17: <W>

• Cases: 28,453,526 (+72,706 | ΔW Change: ↓25.40% | Σ Increase: ↑0.25%)
• Deaths: 502,544 (+2,553 | ΔW Change: ↓25.53% | Σ Increase: ↑0.51%)

2/18 (Yesterday): <Þ>

• Cases: 28,523,524 (+69,998 | ΔW Change: ↓33.35% | Σ Increase: ↑0.25%)
• Deaths: 505,309 (+2,765 | ΔW Change: ↓25.71% | Σ Increase: ↑0.55%)

2/19 (Today): <F>

• Cases: 28,603,813 (+80,289 | ΔW Change: ↓11.05% | Σ Increase: ↑0.28%)
• Deaths: 507,746 (+2,437 | ΔW Change: ↓16.20% | Σ Increase: ↑0.48%)

[Pericles]

Which states are in an actual lockdown right now, rather than just social distancing restrictions?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Which states are in an actual lockdown right now, rather than just social distancing restrictions?

I don't think there's any in the U.S. that are under a "stay-at-home" order right now, but I don't know if Kentucky ever officially lifted theirs. I think Kentucky just sort of gave up on it last May.

I think California and New Mexico were the only states that issued a second "stay-at-home" order.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Open up the schools!!!!!!

[Beet]

By the way, I really appreciate you posting these daily updates Arch. You've been a rock of reliability. I always check this thread at least once a day for the numbers.

[It’s so Joever]

By the way, I really appreciate you posting these daily updates Arch. You've been a rock of reliability. I always check this thread at least once a day for the numbers.

Arch is superior Worldometers.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Which states are in an actual lockdown right now, rather than just social distancing restrictions?

I don't think there's any in the U.S. that are under a "stay-at-home" order right now, but I don't know if Kentucky ever officially lifted theirs. I think Kentucky just sort of gave up on it last May.

I think California and New Mexico were the only states that issued a second "stay-at-home" order.

I'm not sure about cities/regions, but I think California is the only state that's still what most people would consider "locked down", with restaurants and most attractions closed.

[Dr. Arch]

By the way, I really appreciate you posting these daily updates Arch. You've been a rock of reliability. I always check this thread at least once a day for the numbers.

Arch is superior Worldometers.

Thanks everyone! So far, I haven't missed a day in what's been, incredibly, almost a year now. I'm glad to know that people check them regularly, since sometimes I feel like they go unnoticed when chatter dies down.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Thanks everyone! So far, I haven't missed a day in what's been, incredibly, almost a year now. I'm glad to know that people check them regularly, since sometimes I feel like they go unnoticed when chatter dies down.

I look at those each evening. One thing about yesterday is that there was a very high number of tests issued. As a result, the nationwide positivity rate was down to 4.33%, the lowest since Oct. 11.

[jamestroll]

May I ask a serious question?

How come much of the left has been very pro-lockdown when it clearly hurts the poor the most? and when you argue against lockdowns, they respond with retorts so dismissive that its clear they did not read past the first sentence.

Not trying to insult anyone or start a fight here.

I've been pro-lockdown for the better part of a year now, but I also recognize that you can't do lockdowns without a government willing to support its citizens in staying home. And that's obviously just not going to happen in this country. So it's a tough tightrope to walk.

May I ask a serious question?

How come much of the left has been very pro-lockdown when it clearly hurts the poor the most? and when you argue against lockdowns, they respond with retorts so dismissive that its clear they did not read past the first sentence.

Not trying to insult anyone or start a fight here.

I'm generally pro-lockdown, but I also believe that the government should be monetarily supporting those who the lockdown impacts. We should be compensating small businesses for their lost income and should be paying Americans at least $2,000 a month to stay home, if not more.

May I ask a serious question?

How come much of the left has been very pro-lockdown when it clearly hurts the poor the most? and when you argue against lockdowns, they respond with retorts so dismissive that its clear they did not read past the first sentence.

Not trying to insult anyone or start a fight here.

Because it would hurt them even more if they got Covid?

But yeah, what we should be doing is increasing taxes on the rich and giving additional help to the poor until we get through this.

Thank you for your answers. I feel like though we are all arguing about hypotheticals at this point. The bulk of damage has been done at the point. We aren't going to create an entire new economic system immediately.

I have seen many progressives happily scream and hope between election night and inauguration day that Biden would shut the country down and even ground all flights once he was president. Since January 20th, he has been taking nearly the opposite route. Comments about grounding all flights seem ridiculous at this point as the virus is already in nearly every corner of the country.

Whenever you talk with the online left about covid, it seems you are labeled as a de facto murderer unless you support stay at home orders and lockdowns until the virus is eradicated off this planet.  That is not practical nor realistic.

That messaging obviously cost us a bit in the election. Covid-19 will still be circulating around for the 2021 off year and 2022 midterms elections  as well. Sure, the maximum peak of next winter may be around 60k cases in a day a few weeks after Christmas but it will not even be comparable to the case numbers we had this winter. They would mostly be milder as well.  But Democrats can not be perceived as the permanent lockdown party.  We would be wiped off the map electorally.