COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[GeorgiaModerate]

This looks like a good prioritization scheme:

https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1339245175835680772

[GeorgiaModerate]

Yesterday I went in for a dental checkup.  Talking to the hygienist about life during the pandemic, I said that next time she saw me (6 months from now) hopefully life would be back to near-normal, since most people would be vaccinated.  That got us talking about vaccines, and she told me that the people in their practice wouldn't get any priority because the CDC had decided that dental workers are not "essential".  I can see dental workers being a lower priority than many types of medical workers, but it seems wrong that they shouldn't get any priority consideration at all.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/saraecook/status/1341117710558748674

[GeorgiaModerate]

An anecdote: today I went to our HMO pharmacy to pick up a prescription.  There's a drive-through COVID testing site with two lanes inside the medical center parking deck.  When I've been there in the past, there have been at most a few cars waiting, usually zero.  Today the line for testing was backed up out the deck and winding through the parking lot, with security guards giving out numbers and maintaining order.  There's obviously a much higher demand for testing now.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/SarahBeckman3/status/1344664776601952256

That positivity rate...good Lord.

Here in Georgia, most of the hospitals have full ERs and ICUs with COVID patients.  And yet there will be idiots going out tonight to New Year's Eve parties.

[GeorgiaModerate]

12/31 (Today - Holiday/Last Þ Holiday): <Þ>

• Cases: 20,445,654 (+228,663 | ΔW Change: ↑17.76% | Σ Increase: ↑1.13%)
• Deaths: 354,215 (+3,437 | ΔW Change: ↑20.68% | Σ Increase: ↑0.98%)

3000+ deaths on a holiday?

That is what the numbers seem to indicate. It could be backlog, but I didn't see any notes on it.

Yesterday wasn't a government holiday.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Pervaizistan/status/1346283751861608449

[GeorgiaModerate]

Biden will release all available vaccine doses in break from Trump administration policy of holding back stock for second dose

[GeorgiaModerate]

Does anyone know if the vaccine is supposed to give lasting immunity, or if we’ll have to get a vaccine every year like the flu?

My gut feeling is that the COVID vaccine will be ineffective against the new strains of the disease, which might mean that we will have to deal with permanent lockdowns and millions of deaths per year until 2034 or 2035.

Saw something today that said at least one of the vaccines IS effective against the new strains.  Can't find the citation now.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/samstein/status/1349909286336557056

Proving once again that they are not merely incompetent, but downright evil.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/JonLemire/status/1354179975658811392

This will be huge if it actually comes to pass.

[GeorgiaModerate]

There's not going to be another peak as bad as the past couple months. Guaranteed.

Also, I've heard that the flu is down by 98%. Where are all the flu cases going?

Flu doesn’t really exist anymore because of mask-wearing.

Most of the reduction is exactly that; masks and social distancing have greatly reduced the spread of flu this year.  But some of it may be an artifact of the way they count flu cases.  If it's hospitalizations for flu, it's very possible that some cases that might have gone to hospital in previous years may avoid doing so now because the hospitals are full of COVID patients.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1355164895394861067

Nate makes a good point here.  The goal is not to eradicate COVID completely, which is probably impossible, but to control it to a level that the world can handle with a minimal amount of disruption, much like we do with the flu.  Some people do get very sick and die from the flu, and some years their are particularly bad strains, but overall it's something we can live with as a society.  And like the flu, the coronavirus mutates, so it may be necessary to get a shot every year to combat new strains.  But if we can do that for the flu, we can do it for COVID too.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1355286229143572482

A good trend.  If we can just get enough people vaccinated before the more contagious variants take root, we just might get things under control.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I don't think masks are going away anytime this year. And if SARS-CoV-2 becomes endemic (as is expected now) like the cold and flu, it's quite likely mask-wearing will become the cultural norm, especially and particularly during flare-ups. That doesn't mean shutdowns. It just means wear your mask, wash your hands, and use common sense. The rest of the world is going to have to take a page from Asian countries on that one. That's not a bad thing though.

Maybe they'll still be required in places like airports, congregate care facilities, doctor's offices, & the like, but even though mask-wearing would obviously still be beneficial in such a circumstance from a public health perspective, it's naive to believe that peer pressure & ridicule won't kill masks - at least here in the U.S. - as soon as the general public has gotten their vaccine & they feel safe once again. Remember: if the irresponsible didn't care about it during the pandemic, then they sure as hell won't be caring about it after either.

I would hope you're wrong about that. Maybe I am naïve, but I can't remember the last time I've seen someone in public without a mask. These mandates have been in place for a long time now in most places. It's really one of the easiest parts of dealing with this too. Vaccines aren't going to return us to where we were before the pandemic. As I said, if it becomes endemic as many believe, maybe mask-wearing in public will have to return during certain flare-ups like during winter. It also has the added bonus of generally protecting people from the cold and flu as well.

Try living in a (non-Atlas) red state.

Or even a purple one.  I went to the grocery store this morning and there were three people shopping without masks, despite the big MASKS REQUIRED sign at the entrance.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 1/30 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

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1/24: <Sunday>

• Cases: 25,702,125 (+135,336 | ΔW Change: ↓23.11% | Σ Increase: ↑0.53%)
• Deaths: 429,490 (+1,855 | ΔW Change: ↓4.43% | Σ Increase: ↑0.43%)

1/25: <M>

• Cases: 25,861,597 (+159,472 | ΔW Change: ↑10.49% | Σ Increase: ↑0.62%)
• Deaths: 431,392 (+1,902 | ΔW Change: ↑34.13% | Σ Increase: ↑0.44%)

1/26: <T>

• Cases: 26,011,222 (+149,625 | ΔW Change: ↓17.15% | Σ Increase: ↑0.58%)
• Deaths: 435,452 (+4,060 | ΔW Change: ↑41.66% | Σ Increase: ↑0.94%)

1/27: <W>

• Cases: 26,166,201 (+154,979 | ΔW Change: ↓19.29% | Σ Increase: ↑0.60%)
• Deaths: 439,517 (+4,065 | ΔW Change: ↓7.78% | Σ Increase: ↑0.93%)

1/28: <Þ>

• Cases: 26,338,607 (+172,406 | ΔW Change: ↓12.53% | Σ Increase: ↑0.66%)
• Deaths: 443,769 (+4,252 | ΔW Change: ↓3.17% | Σ Increase: ↑0.97%)

1/29: <F>

• Cases: 26,512,193 (+173,586 | ΔW Change: ↓10.50% | Σ Increase: ↑0.66%)
• Deaths: 447,459 (+3,690 | ΔW Change: ↓5.19% | Σ Increase: ↑0.83%)

1/30 (Yesterday): <S>

• Cases: 26,665,740 (+153,547 | ΔW Change: ↓13.13% | Σ Increase: ↑0.58%)
• Deaths: 450,381 (+2,922 | ΔW Change: ↓15.50% | Σ Increase: ↑0.65%)

1/31 (Today): <Sunday>

• Cases: 26,767,229 (+101,489 | ΔW Change: ↓25.01% | Σ Increase: ↑0.38%)
• Deaths: 452,279 (+1,898 | ΔW Change: ↑2.32% | Σ Increase: ↑0.42%)

101,489 is probably the lowest number of cases since October. I fear it is the calm before the storm however, and feel that case might jump to 100 times that in a few weeks once the new variants and reinfections increase.

I certainly believe that there may be another spike, but thinking that it might reach anything like 10 million cases a day (100 times 100,000) is way beyond absurd.  You may wish to look into meditation or other calming techniques.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Interesting read from 538: How COVID-19 Ended Flu Season Before It Started

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Phil_Mattingly/status/1357461951991996419

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/SenateCloakroom/status/1357456606649344002
Next: Toomey Amendment on Sanctuary Cities

Who’s the 1, Schumer for procedural reasons?

Rand Paul, apparently.

[GeorgiaModerate]

What's the exit strategy, folks?

If it goes on this long, it is by definition no longer an emergency that needs to have governors barking down orders. Instead, orders should have review by other branches of government.

DEC. 7, 1942:  "Well, it's been a year since Pearl Harbor.  I guess we can stop all the wartime rationing.  If it goes on this long, it is by definition no longer an emergency."

[GeorgiaModerate]

The number of new cases is going down.

Great news! The farmers are getting the blizzards that their crops need in Michigan, driving conditions are getting hazardous, and people won't be out and about spreading COVID-19.

Deaths from COVID-19 are a lagging indicator, although they remain a tragedy. The Grim Reaper has taken more lives in America now than the population of Miami (42nd-largest city in the USA) from COVID-19 alone.

Wear the d@mn mask if you do go out! 

Maybe the vaccines are starting to help, though I think we are going to experience a very potent wave in a few weeks due to the variants (which are vaccine-resistant, can reinfect people, and have a much higher mortality rate).

I'm in awe at your ability to pack three different pieces of misinformation in one short parenthetical section.

[GeorgiaModerate]

2.1 million vaccinations in the U.S. today!  The pace is accelerating.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/isaacstanbecker/status/1359184376563720193

[GeorgiaModerate]

Chair of the Department of Medicine at UCSF:

https://twitter.com/Bob_Wachter/status/1359999494721478659

Amazing what a little competence in government can do.

[GeorgiaModerate]

^ That's now a full week with all green.