COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[Progressive Pessimist]

This virus comes in waves here, as it gets worse people tighten up and then it gets better but that makes people complacent and the cycle continues.

This is true but we do have a vaccine now. I think the worst may finally be behind us.

If the competency of the distribution improves and if enough people actually choose to get it, that is. We're still not close to being out of the woods.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 1/28 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

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1/17: <Sunday>

• Cases: 24,482,050 (+176,007 | ΔW Change: ↓19.04% | Σ Increase: ↑0.72%)
• Deaths: 407,202 (+1,941 | ΔW Change: ↑8.13% | Σ Increase: ↑0.48%)

1/18: <M>

• Cases: 24,626,376 (+144,326 | ΔW Change: ↓36.10% | Σ Increase: ↑0.59%)
• Deaths: 408,620 (+1,418 | ΔW Change: ↓28.17% | Σ Increase: ↑0.35%)

1/19: <T>

• Cases: 24,806,964 (+180,588 | ΔW Change: ↓19.75% | Σ Increase: ↑0.73%)
• Deaths: 411,486 (+2,866 | ΔW Change: ↓34.11% | Σ Increase: ↑0.70%)

1/20: <W>

• Cases: 24,998,975 (+192,011 | ΔW Change: ↓22.61% | Σ Increase: ↑0.77%)
• Deaths: 415,894 (+4,408 | ΔW Change: ↑1.82% | Σ Increase: ↑1.07%)

1/21: <Þ>

• Cases: 25,196,086 (+197,111 | ΔW Change: ↓15.06% | Σ Increase: ↑0.79%)
• Deaths: 420,285 (+4,391 | ΔW Change: ↑7.99% | Σ Increase: ↑1.06%)

1/22: <F>

• Cases: 25,390,042 (+193,956 | ΔW Change: ↓23.65% | Σ Increase: ↑0.77%)
• Deaths: 424,177 (+3,892 | ΔW Change: ↑0.78% | Σ Increase: ↑0.93%)

1/23: <S>

• Cases: 25,566,789 (+176,747 | ΔW Change: ↓13.20% | Σ Increase: ↑0.82%)
• Deaths: 427,635 (+3,458 | ΔW Change: ↑1.56% | Σ Increase: ↑0.82%)

1/24: <Sunday>

• Cases: 25,702,125 (+135,336 | ΔW Change: ↓23.11% | Σ Increase: ↑0.53%)
• Deaths: 429,490 (+1,855 | ΔW Change: ↓4.43% | Σ Increase: ↑0.43%)

1/25: <M>

• Cases: 25,861,597 (+159,472 | ΔW Change: ↑10.49% | Σ Increase: ↑0.62%)
• Deaths: 431,392 (+1,902 | ΔW Change: ↑34.13% | Σ Increase: ↑0.44%)

1/26: <T>

• Cases: 26,011,222 (+149,625 | ΔW Change: ↓17.15% | Σ Increase: ↑0.58%)
• Deaths: 435,452 (+4,060 | ΔW Change: ↑41.66% | Σ Increase: ↑0.94%)

1/27 (Yesterday): <W>

• Cases: 26,166,201 (+154,979 | ΔW Change: ↓19.29% | Σ Increase: ↑0.60%)
• Deaths: 439,517 (+4,065 | ΔW Change: ↓7.78% | Σ Increase: ↑0.93%)

1/28 (Today): <Þ>

• Cases: 26,338,607 (+172,406 | ΔW Change: ↓12.53% | Σ Increase: ↑0.66%)
• Deaths: 443,769 (+4,252 | ΔW Change: ↓3.17% | Σ Increase: ↑0.97%)

[pbrower2a]

We just lost the equivalent of Oakland, California and had surpassed Minneapolis.

It keeps getting worse. Speaking of Oakland: it is the home of Clorox Corporation, a company that strongly deprecates how President Trump suggested that people use its product. Never for internal use! Surfaces, OK.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

We've had our fill of events that aren't scheduled for months from now being canceled already. Bunbury in Cincinnati wasn't scheduled until June, and they already decreed a few weeks ago that it would be canceled. The baseball opening day parade is canceled 2 years in a row.

With the vaccine out now, there is absolutely no reason to be canceling events that far into the future. None.

[MATTROSE94]

We've had our fill of events that aren't scheduled for months from now being canceled already. Bunbury in Cincinnati wasn't scheduled until June, and they already decreed a few weeks ago that it would be canceled. The baseball opening day parade is canceled 2 years in a row.

With the vaccine out now, there is absolutely no reason to be canceling events that far into the future. None.

I don’t agree. I think that a permanent lockdown is necessary for the foreseeable future even once we hit heard immunity due to variants in COVID that may occur. It would be terrible for all the progress that has made combating the disease to be erased due to a new variant.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I don’t agree. I think that a permanent lockdown is necessary for the foreseeable future even once we hit heard immunity due to variants in COVID that may occur. It would be terrible for all the progress that has made combating the disease to be erased due to a new variant.

I don't know whether this post is serious or a joke.

[emailking]

Cancelling something in June seems a bit premature. But it's possible the new strains may swamp progress made with from the vaccines, so we may be dealing with cancellations for a while.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

In the past few days, I've been to Boston, San Francisco, Barcelona, Dubai, Paris, Tampa, Budapest, and Portland. How did I accomplish this? Through the miracle of Snap Map! I like to look at Snap Map to see how different places around the world deal with life during the pandemic. In all those cities, I found people who were partying down!

I've even found some good parties on college campuses!

[MATTROSE94]

I don’t agree. I think that a permanent lockdown is necessary for the foreseeable future even once we hit heard immunity due to variants in COVID that may occur. It would be terrible for all the progress that has made combating the disease to be erased due to a new variant.

I don't know whether this post is serious or a joke.

It seems that the newer strains are going to ultimately make the vaccines useless, which will require a permanent lockdown to prevent hospitals from being overrun. A permanent lockdown can be implemented through pol use such as full income replacement for individuals who cannot work from home, strict stay at home orders, distributions of food, medicine, and necessary supplies to all people by the military, and strict punishments for people who disobey lockdowns. That is the only way to get COVID under control, though it may take 15 years to ultimately do so.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Cancelling something in June seems a bit premature. But it's possible the new strains may swamp progress made with from the vaccines, so we may be dealing with cancellations for a while.

The strains shouldn't be considered anything unusual. This virus is mutating slower than the flu, and several news reports say the vaccine is just as effective with these new strains.

[emailking]

Cancelling something in June seems a bit premature. But it's possible the new strains may swamp progress made with from the vaccines, so we may be dealing with cancellations for a while.

The strains shouldn't be considered anything unusual. This virus is mutating slower than the flu, and several news reports say the vaccine is just as effective with these new strains.

I'm not saying the vaccines won't be effective against them.

[MATTROSE94]

Cancelling something in June seems a bit premature. But it's possible the new strains may swamp progress made with from the vaccines, so we may be dealing with cancellations for a while.

The strains shouldn't be considered anything unusual. This virus is mutating slower than the flu, and several news reports say the vaccine is just as effective with these new strains.

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2021/01/28/961758633/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-effective-but-less-so-against-variant-in-south-africa

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00183-5/fulltext

[MATTROSE94]

Cancelling something in June seems a bit premature. But it's possible the new strains may swamp progress made with from the vaccines, so we may be dealing with cancellations for a while.

The strains shouldn't be considered anything unusual. This virus is mutating slower than the flu, and several news reports say the vaccine is just as effective with these new strains.

I'm not saying the vaccines won't be effective against them.

It is also possible that the new strains will infect people at a much higher rate than the vaccines are adminstered.

[emailking]

Yeah that's the problem. How much more contagious they are.

[MATTROSE94]

Yeah that's the problem. How much more contagious they are.

I would guess at least 50-75% more contagious. That will increase the rate of transmission and the rate of death. Even if we administer 2 million vaccine dosages per day by March, we could have 5-10 million cases per day.

[emailking]

Don't know about that much, but I wouldn't be surprised to see another large peak.

[MATTROSE94]

Don't know about that much, but I wouldn't be surprised to see another large peak.

A lot of medical experts are saying we are due for one more peak in COVID at least that will last from March into probably July or August that will make the other peaks look extremely minor in comparison.

[emailking]

A lot of medical experts are saying we are due for one more peak in COVID at least that will last from March into probably July or August that will make the other peaks look extremely minor in comparison.

I can believe that, but 5-10 million a day feels like an order of magnitude too high. But yeah I don't know.

[jamestroll]

Don't know about that much, but I wouldn't be surprised to see another large peak.

A lot of medical experts are saying we are due for one more peak in COVID at least that will last from March into probably July or August that will make the other peaks look extremely minor in comparison.

What is the source on this? Unless there are millions of reinfections I doubt that the next peak of Covid would make Nov-Jan look extremely minor.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

There just aren’t enough people left to be infected for the peak last month to ever look “extremely minor”.

[emailking]

I've heard several doctors on MSNBC in the last week say that the worst days of the pandemic are ahead of us even with the vaccines. That's all I have.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

There's not going to be another peak as bad as the past couple months. Guaranteed.

Also, I've heard that the flu is down by 98%. Where are all the flu cases going?

[Tender Branson]

There's not going to be another peak as bad as the past couple months. Guaranteed.

Also, I've heard that the flu is down by 98%. Where are all the flu cases going?

Flu doesn’t really exist anymore because of mask-wearing.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Flu doesn’t really exist anymore because of mask-wearing.

Then covid shouldn't exist either.

[Tender Branson]

Flu doesn’t really exist anymore because of mask-wearing.

Then covid shouldn't exist either.

Maybe flu particles are more transmissible than Covid particles ... what other reason would there be that the flu has perished other than masks and social distancing ?